光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 6 月 17 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 尿素 | 周一尿素期货价格持续走高，主力09合约收盘价1723元/吨，日内涨幅3.48%。现货 | 看涨 | | | 市场同步反弹，周末以来主流地区市场价格上涨10~60元/吨不等，目前山东、河南 | | | | 地区市场价格分别为1760元/吨、1750元/吨，较上周五分别上涨50元/吨、30元/吨 | | | | 。基本面来看，尿素供应水平依旧高位波动，行业日产量昨日20.33万吨，日环比下 | | | | 降0.41万吨。需求端在市场情绪回暖带动下有所跟进，昨日主流地区现货产销率提 | | | | 升至100%及以上，个别地区更高，尿素企业订单充足，再现停收、限售等情况。当 | | | | 前市场影响较大的主要在于国际市场扰动，一方面，俄罗斯、埃及、伊朗等地区氮 | | | | 肥生产及经营干扰因素增多，另一方面在于印标价格偏高，二者均对国内市场产生 | | | | 提振，同时市场预期高价出口货源或逐步增多。从国内市场来看，目前尿素 ...

更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 煤化工策略日报 Coal Chemical Futures Strategy Daily Report 能源化工团队 | 作者： | 夏聪聪 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3012139 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0012870 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578010 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年06月17日星期二 【交易策略】 据悉伊朗部分装置已停车，后期进口或缩减，甲醇期价强势反弹， 短期重心仍有上探可能，多单谨慎持有，压力位关注2530-2550附 近，考虑到高温淡季因素及上涨持续性或不强，不建议追涨，支撑 关注2330-2350附近。期权方面，卖出行权价在2180下方的虚值看 跌期权谨慎持有。 ●PVC 【市场逻辑】 【交易策略】 供需或弱化，PVC期价上涨难持续，短期关注油价的提振作用，上 方关注4850-4900附近承压，可等待反弹结束后的试空机会，下方 支撑关注4730-4750附近。期权方面，可考虑期价走高后卖出行权 价在5000上方的虚值看涨期权。 成本端保持 ...

证券代码：601898 证券简称：中煤能源 公告编号：2025-020 以上生产经营数据源自本公司内部统计，为投资者及时了解本公司生产经营 概况之用，可能与本公司定期报告披露的数据有差异。 此外，因受到诸多因素的影响，包括（但不限于）国家宏观政策调整、国内 外市场环境变化、恶劣天气及灾害、设备检修维护、安全检查和煤矿地质条件变 化等，所公告生产经营数据在月度之间可能存在较大差异。 上述生产经营数据并不对本公司未来经营情况作出任何明示或默示的预测 或保证，投资者应注意不恰当信赖或使用以上信息可能造成投资风险。 公司将在本公告披露后适时召开月度生产经营数据说明会，具体参会事宜请 询公司投资者热线 010-82236028。 中国中煤能源股份有限公司 2025 年 5 月份主要生产经营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 | 指标项目 | 单位 | 2025 | 年 | 2024 | 年 | 变化比率（%） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

2025 年 5 月，本公司煤炭销售量同比下降的主要原因，是下游煤炭需求偏 弱、受煤炭销售结算进度影响；航运货运量、周转量同比下降的主要原因，是业 务结构调整、航线结构变化；聚乙烯、聚丙烯销售量同比增长的主要原因，是上 年同期煤制烯烃生产设备按计划检修导致基数较低。 证券代码：601088 证券简称：中国神华 公告编号：临 2025-028 中国神华能源股份有限公司 2025 年 5 月份主要运营数据公告 中国神华能源股份有限公司（"本公司"）董事会及全体董事保证本公告内 容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确 性和完整性承担法律责任。 | 运营指标 | 单位 | 2025 | 年 | 2024 | 年 | 同比变化 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | （重述后） | | （%） | | | | | 月 5 | 累计 | 月 5 | 累计 | 月 5 | 累计 | | （一）煤炭 | | | | | | | | | 1. 商品煤产量 | 百万吨 | 28.0 | 137.8 | 28.4 ...

证券研究报 告 新疆周报（20250609-20250615） 推荐（维持） 新业煤制气项目公众参与报批前公示 行业研究 基础化工 2025 年 06 月 16 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：杨晖 邮箱：yanghui@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522050001 证券分析师：陈俊新 邮箱：chenjunxin@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525040001 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 489 | 0.06 | | 总市值(亿元) | 41,430.39 | 4.28 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 36,742.13 | 4.79 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | -4.7% | -1.9% | -0.4% | | 相对表现 | -1.1% | 1.2% | -5.0% | -16% -4% 8% 20% 24/06 24/08 24/11 25/01 25/03 25/06 2024-06-14~2025-06 ...

Core Viewpoint - Yumen City, once reliant on oil, is successfully transitioning to a green economy by diversifying its energy sources and enhancing its industrial structure in response to resource depletion and national carbon reduction goals [1][4]. Group 1: Energy Transition - Yumen has initiated multiple renewable energy projects, including a 500,000 kW wind power project that will generate over 900 million kWh annually, saving nearly 300,000 tons of standard coal [1][2]. - Since the "14th Five-Year Plan," Yumen's new energy installed capacity has grown at an annual rate exceeding 16%, with a current total of 6.284 million kW, accounting for over 87% of the city's power generation capacity [2][3]. - By 2024, clean energy generation is expected to reach 7.44 billion kWh, making up over 96% of the total energy produced in Yumen [2]. Group 2: Industrial Development - The proportion of Yumen's petrochemical industrial output value is projected to decrease to 53% of the city's total industrial output by 2024, while the contributions from new energy, new energy equipment manufacturing, coal chemical, and fine chemical industries are steadily increasing [3][4]. - Yumen has attracted nine large-scale new energy equipment manufacturing enterprises, with an expected output value of 2 billion yuan in 2024 [2]. Group 3: Infrastructure and Investment - Yumen has established a comprehensive infrastructure to support its industrial base, including water, electricity, pipelines, steam, and hazardous waste disposal facilities [4][5]. - The city has streamlined its investment processes, reducing approval times by over 95% through tailored services for businesses, which has fostered a favorable investment environment [6]. Group 4: Future Development Strategies - Yumen is focusing on enhancing its renewable energy sector and addressing local energy consumption challenges, with significant projects like the 1.2 million kW pumped storage power station under construction [7]. - The city aims to optimize talent policies to support green industry development, offering substantial financial incentives for innovation and technical achievements [8]. - Yumen is also leveraging its industrial heritage for tourism, transforming historical industrial sites into cultural attractions [9].

Core Viewpoint - Hubei Yihua is intensifying its strategic layout by focusing on its core business and pursuing green transformation through a series of asset disposals and mergers aimed at optimizing resource allocation and enhancing operational efficiency [1][3][5]. Group 1: Strategic Actions - Hubei Yihua's subsidiary, Inner Mongolia Yihua, plans to transfer a 1.718% stake in Lianhai Coal Industry for a base price of 222 million yuan, which will allow the company to concentrate on its main business [2][3]. - The company intends to sell old machinery and equipment from its old factory for 240 million yuan as part of its commitment to the "Yangtze River Protection" policy [1][7]. - Hubei Yihua is merging its wholly-owned subsidiary, New Yihua Chemical, to optimize its management structure and reduce operational costs [1][6]. Group 2: Financial Goals and Performance - Hubei Yihua aims to achieve a revenue of no less than 18 billion yuan by 2025, focusing on enhancing profitability and driving high-quality development [1][5]. - In 2024, the company reported revenues of 16.964 billion yuan and a net profit of 653 million yuan, indicating a robust growth trajectory in its core business [5][6]. Group 3: Industry Context and Future Outlook - The coal chemical sector is a significant part of Hubei Yihua's chemical industry chain, and the company is expanding its coal mining operations to ensure a stable supply of raw materials for its chemical production [4][6]. - The completion of the acquisition of Yinchuan New Development Investment Co. has increased Hubei Yihua's stake in Xinjiang Yihua to 75%, enhancing its competitive position in the market [4][6].

本周大事件 本周化工市场综述 本周基础化工指数下跌 0.01%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 0.24%。标的方面，本周康宽、硝化棉、碳酸锶、溴素、甲 醇、H 酸相关标的表现较强。基础化工行业，建议关注以下事件，一是产品涨价继续，其中辉隆公布 97%的氯虫苯甲 酰胺预售价格为 32 万元/吨，泰禾将百菌清价格上调至 3 万元/吨；二是中国平煤神马集团 10 万吨/年艾斯安装置投 产，己二腈工艺之争或存在变数；三是利安德巴赛尔公司（LYB）宣布，已与 AEQUITA 达成协议并展开独家谈判，出 售其位于欧洲的部分烯烃和聚烯烃资产及相关业务；四是本周中国钾肥大合同价格顺利达成，价格为 346 美元/吨， 钾肥景气度有望持续，本周市场开始关注估值较低的钾肥标的。 石油化工行业边际变化，本周由于伊朗以色列冲突升级，地缘风险溢价明显上升，进而推动油价明显上升，同 时，也推升了甲醇、碳酸锶、溴素的关注度；整体来说，今年油价走势超市场预期，核心推动因素还是地缘政治。 关税方面，本周主要关注三大事件，一是中美经贸磋商机制首次会议召开，中美原则上达成协议框架；二是美国联 邦上诉法院为特朗普关税"续命"，7 月底将迎关键听证；三是贝森 ...

Core Viewpoint - The third "Ordos Cup" Innovation and Entrepreneurship Competition has been launched in Beijing, aiming to attract innovative projects, talents, and enterprises with core competitiveness and growth potential to foster new industries, models, and momentum for development [1][3]. Group 1: Event Overview - The competition is themed "Innovation Leads, Building a Warm City" and includes a promotional conference to enhance participation [1]. - The event is organized by the Ordos Municipal Government and supported by various local departments, including the Science and Technology Bureau and Human Resources and Social Security Bureau [3]. Group 2: Policy and Incentives - The upgraded "Talent New Policy 30 Articles 2.0" and "Technology New Policy 30 Articles 2.0" were introduced to attract investment and talent [3]. - The competition aims to create a first-class business environment in Ordos, showcasing practical measures to draw investments [3]. Group 3: Competition Structure and Focus Areas - The competition focuses on several key areas: energy and low-carbon technology, modern coal chemical and new materials, new energy and equipment manufacturing, and emerging industries and social innovation [3]. - It features two groups: "Global Talent Introduction Group" and "Ordos Science and Technology Innovation Group," with a total prize pool exceeding 10 million yuan, and the highest single prize reaching 1 million yuan [3]. Group 4: Participation and Promotion - The competition includes preliminary, semi-final, and final rounds, with the promotional team set to visit cities like Xi'an, Changzhou, Chengdu, Wuhan, Shenzhen, and Shanghai to encourage participation [3]. - The event aims to create a vibrant atmosphere for innovation teams and cutting-edge technologies to emerge [3].

一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 尿素 | 周四尿素期货价格延续弱势状态，主力09合约收盘价1646元/吨，跌幅1.67%。现货 | 偏弱 | | | 市场继续下调，主流地区市场价格昨日继续下降10~20元/吨，部分厂家低端出场价 | | | | 格已逐步向1600元/吨靠近。本周尿素企业库存增幅高达13.69%，尿素厂家仍有出 | | | | 货压力。供应来看，近期尿素日产水平 现增量 势，昨日20.74万吨，日环比增0. | | | | 11万吨。需求端跟进力度依旧不足，部分低端价格成交略有好转，昨日国内主流地 | | | | 区平均产销率小幅提升至38%，区域间产销率仍维持7%-67%区间波动。目前国内麦 | | | | 收进度超70%，麦收后尿素农需及出口需求仍有跟进预期，但尿素价格目前未见到 | | | | 反转动能。整体来看，尿素供需层面驱动不足，产业心态持续走弱，期现负反馈状 | | | | 态短期或继续维持。后期关注需求释放力度、出口相关政策动态等逻辑能否给盘面 | | | | 带来止跌企稳迹象。 | | | 纯碱 | 周四纯碱期货价格 ...