Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Cautiously bearish, with a short-term focus on waiting and seeing [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Cautiously bearish, with a short-term focus on waiting and seeing [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: None [2] - Futures-cash: None [2] - Options: None [2] Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of fuel oil are currently fair, but the recent weak performance of crude oil prices due to a looser fundamental situation and potential tariff frictions is suppressing the overall energy sector [1] - Russian fuel oil supply is restricted, with expected lower high-sulfur fuel oil shipments in October. The fundamentals and market structure of low-sulfur fuel oil are weaker than those of high-sulfur fuel oil, but the pressure is expected to ease after the restart of the Dangote refinery's RFCC unit [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The night session of the main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 0.45% at 2,681 yuan/ton, while the night session of the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.06% at 3,156 yuan/ton [1] - Crude oil prices are weak recently, suppressing the overall energy sector. The fundamentals of fuel oil are currently fair, and the market structure is supported [1] - Russian supply is restricted. Due to continuous drone attacks in Ukraine and new sanctions from the UK on October 15, Russian refinery maintenance has increased unexpectedly, and the estimated high-sulfur fuel oil shipments in October are 1.6 million tons, a decrease of 1.43 million tons from the previous month [1] - The fundamentals and market structure of low-sulfur fuel oil are weaker than those of high-sulfur fuel oil. Supply from Africa, South America, etc. has increased, and shipping and bunker fuel demand face potential risks. However, the pressure is expected to ease after the restart of the Dangote refinery's RFCC unit [1] Strategy - High-sulfur fuel oil: Cautiously bearish, with a short-term focus on waiting and seeing [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Cautiously bearish, with a short-term focus on waiting and seeing [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: None [2] - Futures-cash: None [2] - Options: None [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - International oil prices continue to show a weak downward trend due to uncertainties in China-US trade tariffs, which still disrupt global crude oil demand. The crude oil supply-demand situation remains loose. OPEC+ continues its production increase policy and has reached a principled agreement to slightly increase production again in November. From September, crude oil consumption gradually declines, with the end of the US consumption peak season marked by Labor Day in early September. Global crude oil consumption in the off - season drops by 1 - 3 million barrels per day compared to the peak season. Geopolitical tensions have eased, reducing geopolitical risks and allowing more crude oil to enter the market. Short - term oil prices are expected to remain weak. The recommended short - term operation strategy is to wait and see [3]. - The fuel oil market is under pressure from lukewarm demand and sufficient supply. Although Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased in the week ending October 8, it is expected that the inventory will rise in October due to large supplies received in Asia in September. The spot price difference of fuel oil has increased slightly, but the near - month contract of 0.5% low - sulfur fuel oil still maintains a positive price difference structure, indicating abundant immediate supply. With the expected weak performance of international oil prices, fuel oil lacks strong driving forces. The recommended short - term operation strategy is to wait and see [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - **Domestic Market**: SC crude oil closed at 448.6 yuan/barrel, down 5.1 yuan or 1.12% from the previous value; FU high - sulfur fuel oil closed at 2700 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan or 1.35%; LU low - sulfur fuel oil closed at 3203 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan or 0.90% [3]. - **Foreign Market**: WTI crude oil closed at $59.56 per barrel, unchanged; Brent crude oil closed at $63.39 per barrel, unchanged; Nymex gasoline closed at $1.8015 per gallon, unchanged; ICE diesel closed at $659.50 per ton, unchanged; Nymex natural gas closed at $3.101 per mmBtu, unchanged [3]. 3.2 Spread Data - **Crude Oil Spread**: SC - WTI spread was 3.60 yuan/barrel, down 0.73 yuan or 16.86%; SC - Brent spread was - 0.23 yuan/barrel, down 0.73 yuan or 144.66%; Brent - WTI spread was $3.83 per barrel, unchanged; SC monthly spread was - $1.00 per barrel, up $0.30 or - 23.08%; WTI monthly spread was $0.42 per barrel, unchanged; Brent monthly spread was $0.39 per barrel, unchanged [3]. - **Fuel Oil Spread**: FU monthly spread was 17 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan or 10.53%; LU monthly spread was 7 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 16.67%; FU - SC spread was - 33 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan or 1.82%; LU - SC spread was 44 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 1.47%; LU - FU spread was 503 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan or 1.62% [3][4]. 3.3 Spot Prices - **Crude Oil**: Oman crude oil was at $65.6 per barrel, down $1.35 or 2.02%; Russian ESPO was at $60.43 per barrel, down $0.89 or 1.45%; Brent Dtd was at $67.67 per barrel, down $2.62 or 3.87% [4]. - **Fuel Oil**: Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil was at $377 per ton, down $8 or 2.08%; Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil was at $452.5 per ton, down $10 or 2.21% [4]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **US EIA Data**: Crude oil commercial inventory was 420,261 thousand barrels, up 3,715 thousand barrels or 0.89%; gasoline inventory was 219,093 thousand barrels, down 1,601 thousand barrels or 0.73%; distillate oil inventory was 121,559 thousand barrels, down 2,018 thousand barrels or 1.63%; US production was 13,629 thousand barrels per day, up 124 thousand barrels per day or 0.92%; refined oil inventory was 44,540 thousand barrels, down 141 thousand barrels or 0.32% [4]. - **Singapore ESG Data**: Fuel oil inventory was 23,699 thousand barrels, up 314 thousand barrels or 1.34% [4]. - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: SC crude oil warehouse receipts were 5,401,000, unchanged; FU fuel oil warehouse receipts were 45,800, unchanged; LU fuel oil warehouse receipts were 13,080, unchanged [4]. 3.5 Macro and Shipping Data - **Macro Data**: The US dollar index was 99.2595, up 0.4372 or 0.44%; the US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.05%; the RMB/US dollar exchange rate was 7.2545, unchanged; the Baltic BDI was 2,144, up 208 or 10.74% [4]. - **Shipping Data**: The crude oil freight rate BDTI was 1,141, up 22 or 1.97%; the refined oil freight rate BCTI was 551, down 9 or 1.61% [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil prices are expected to continue weak and volatile. The IEA predicts a large supply surplus in the world oil market next year, with supply growth significantly outpacing demand growth, putting strong pressure on oil prices. Currently, the market faces pressure from both supply and demand sides, and the peak demand season is fading with no highlights in the downstream [1]. - Fuel oil prices are expected to be volatile and weak in the short - term. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore is sufficient, while the high - sulfur fuel oil market is relatively strong, but Trump's new round of tariff hikes is pressuring oil prices [2]. - Asphalt prices are expected to be volatile and weak in the short - term, with a smaller decline than crude oil and fuel oil. There is still some construction rush expectation after the festival, but the significant increase in previous production may suppress prices [2]. - Polyester chain prices are expected to be volatile and weak, following the movement of crude oil prices. The supply of TA and EG is in a loose pattern, and the weak sales of polyester products are observed. Pay attention to potential sudden plant overhauls under low processing fees [2]. - Rubber prices are expected to be volatile and weak. The end of the typhoon season leads to normal rubber tapping in major production areas, while the high inventory of tire finished products and tariff - disturbed demand result in a situation of increasing supply and weakening demand [4]. - Methanol prices are expected to be volatile. The domestic supply has recovered, and the Iranian Busher plant has resumed production, but future production growth is limited due to winter gas restrictions. Consider long - methanol and short - polyolefin strategies and inter - month positive spread strategies [4]. - Polyolefin prices are expected to be weak. The short - term production will remain at a high level, and although there is still support from downstream orders in October, the marginal increase will gradually decline [6]. - PVC prices are expected to be volatile and weak. The supply remains at a high level, domestic demand is slowing down, and exports are expected to be weak due to anti - dumping policies and trade frictions. The total inventory pressure is large [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, WTI November contract closed down $0.79 to $58.70 per barrel, a 1.33% decline; Brent December contract closed down $0.93 to $62.39 per barrel, a 1.47% decline; SC2511 closed at 444.0 yuan per barrel, down 7.8 yuan per barrel, a 1.73% decline. The IEA predicts a supply surplus of up to 4 million barrels per day in the world oil market next year, while OPEC +'s monthly report is less pessimistic [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main contract of fuel oil FU2601 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 1.1% at 2700 yuan per ton; the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil LU2512 closed down 1.14% at 3203 yuan per ton. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore is sufficient, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market is relatively strong [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main contract of asphalt BU2511 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 0.6% at 3290 yuan per ton. There is a construction rush expectation after the festival, but previous production increases may suppress prices [2]. - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4440 yuan per ton on Tuesday, down 1.55%; EG2601 closed at 4061 yuan per ton, down 1.22%. The polyester chain prices are weak and volatile, and the polyester operating rate is 91% [2]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main contract of natural rubber RU2601 closed down 95 yuan per ton to 14845 yuan per ton; NR main contract closed down 50 yuan per ton to 11990 yuan per ton. In September, China's automobile production and sales increased significantly, but the supply - demand situation of rubber is unfavorable [4]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the spot price in Taicang was 2285 yuan per ton. The domestic supply has recovered, and the Iranian Busher plant has resumed production, but future production growth is limited [4]. - **Polyolefins**: On Tuesday, the mainstream price of East China拉丝 was 6550 - 6700 yuan per ton. The short - term production will remain high, and downstream demand growth is weakening [6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Tuesday, the market prices of PVC in East, North, and South China continued to decline. The supply remains high, domestic demand is slowing down, and exports are expected to be weak [6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price data of various energy and chemical products on October 15, 2025, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc., covering spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rate, price changes, and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [8]. 3.3 Market News - The IEA predicts a large supply surplus in the world oil market next year, while OPEC +'s view is less pessimistic. Oil industry executives expect the global oil market to tighten in the medium - to - long - term [10]. - A preliminary survey shows that US crude oil inventories are estimated to have increased last week, while gasoline and distillate inventories may have declined. The release of inventory reports by API and EIA has been postponed [10]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [12] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various products, such as the basis of crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [28] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various products, like the spread between fuel oil contracts 01 - 05 and 09 - 01 [43] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It includes the spread charts of different varieties, such as the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, the ratio of fuel oil to asphalt, etc. [64] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the production profit charts of some products, such as the cash flow of ethylene - based ethylene glycol production and the production profit of PP [71]

Core Insights - In the first half of 2025, the fuel oil production in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region reached 30,000 tons, representing a significant decline of 70.0% compared to the same period in 2024, with a growth rate 71.7 percentage points lower than in 2024 and 67.2 percentage points lower than the national average [1] - In June 2025, the fuel oil production in Ningxia was 5,000 tons, which is a decrease of 53.3% year-on-year, with a growth rate 21.6 percentage points lower than in 2024 and 55.4 percentage points lower than the national average [2] Summary by Category Production Analysis - The cumulative fuel oil production for the first six months of 2025 in Ningxia accounted for 0.1% of the national total production of 21,608,000 tons [1] - The June 2025 production represented 0.1% of the national total fuel oil production of 3,628,000 tons [2] Year-on-Year Comparison - The decline in fuel oil production in Ningxia for the first half of 2025 is stark, with a 70.0% drop compared to the same period in 2024 [1] - The June 2025 production figures show a 53.3% decrease compared to June 2024, indicating a continuing downward trend [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a daily morning observation of various commodities, including agricultural products, black metals, non-ferrous metals, and energy chemicals. The market trends of each commodity are analyzed based on factors such as supply and demand, macroeconomic conditions, and trade policies. The report suggests corresponding trading strategies for each commodity, including unilateral trading, arbitrage, and options trading. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Macro influences increase, and the volatility of meal products widens. The CBOT soybean and soybean meal indices decline. South American soybean exports to China offset the decrease in US soybean exports. It is recommended to short the soybean meal 05 contract at high points, hold long positions in rapeseed meal, and conduct M11 - 1 positive spreads [15][16][17]. - **Sugar**: Typhoon weather is favorable for the market. ICE and London sugar prices decline. Brazilian sugar production may increase, and the domestic sugar market is affected by the typhoon. It is expected that the international sugar price will fluctuate within a range, and the domestic sugar price will also show a short - term oscillatory trend [17][18][20]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: Sino - US tariffs resurface, and the market maintains a short - term oscillatory trend. The Malaysian palm oil inventory increases in September, and domestic soybean oil may gradually reduce inventory. It is recommended to wait and see first and consider lightly going long on dips [21][22][23]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: New grain is concentrated on the market, and the price oscillates at the bottom. The US corn price is weak, and domestic new - crop corn is abundant. It is recommended to go long on the 12 - month corn contract on dips, and gradually establish long - term long positions in the 05 and 07 corn contracts [24][25][27]. - **Hogs**: The pressure of slaughter continues to be reflected, and the spot price continues to decline. Hog prices fall in various regions, and the overall supply is sufficient. It is recommended to short at high points and conduct LH15 reverse spreads [27][28][29]. - **Peanuts**: Harvest is affected by rainfall, and peanuts are short - term bullish. The average price of peanuts declines slightly, and the inventory of peanut oil manufacturers changes. It is recommended to go long on the 01 and 05 peanut contracts lightly [30][31][32]. - **Eggs**: Oscillate weakly. Egg prices decline, and the inventory of laying hens is high. It is recommended to short near - month contracts at high points [33][34][36]. - **Apples**: Oscillate slightly bullishly. Apple inventory decreases, and new - crop apples are affected by rainfall. It is expected that the price will oscillate slightly bullishly in the short term [37][38][42]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: Oscillate slightly bearishly. ICE cotton prices decline. The Sino - US trade war affects cotton consumption. It is expected that the US cotton price will oscillate, and the Zhengzhou cotton price will oscillate slightly bearishly [43][44][46]. Black Metals - **Steel**: US tariff increases put slight pressure on steel prices. The black sector oscillates weakly, and steel inventories accumulate. It is recommended to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend and go long on the spread between hot - rolled and rebar at low points [48][49][50]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Long positions can be lightly established on dips. The market may be affected by macro - market sentiment, but the impact is expected to be small. It is recommended to go long on dips [50][51][53]. - **Iron Ore**: Adopt a bearish approach at high levels. Global iron ore shipments increase, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to hedge at high levels in the spot market and conduct reverse cash - and - carry arbitrage [53][54][56]. - **Ferroalloys**: The valuation is not high, and short positions can be reduced during macro - shocks. The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are stable to weak. It is recommended to reduce short positions during macro - shocks [56][57][58]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Precious Metals**: Trade disputes resurface, and they are driven by short - term risk - aversion sentiment. Gold and silver prices rise, and the US dollar index and bond yields decline. It is recommended to go long at low points [59][60][62]. - **Copper**: Tariffs cause a short - term setback in copper prices, but the long - term trend remains unchanged. Copper prices decline, and the supply is tight while consumption is weak. It is recommended to go long on dips [64][65][67]. - **Alumina**: The weak trend due to supply - demand surplus remains unchanged. The price of alumina declines, and the supply exceeds demand. It is expected to maintain a weak - oscillating and bottom - grinding trend [69][70][71]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Weakens with the increase in tariff policies, but the scrap aluminum price may be relatively firm. The futures price of cast aluminum alloy declines. The impact of tariffs is expected to be less severe than in April. It is necessary to pay attention to subsequent policies [74][75]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The short - term volatility increases due to panic sentiment, and the medium - term bullish trend remains unchanged. The price of electrolytic aluminum declines. The impact of tariffs is limited, and the medium - term price may strengthen [75][76][78]. - **Zinc**: There is obvious support below, and the zinc price may rebound. The domestic zinc price is under pressure, and the overseas price is strong. It is recommended to close out profitable short positions and go short again at high points [79][80][82]. - **Lead**: Supply and demand are both weak, and be wary of the lead price falling after rising. The lead price rises, and the supply may increase in the second half of October. It is recommended to be cautious as the price may fall after rising [83][84][87]. - **Nickel**: Volatility increases, and the price center moves down. The LME nickel price declines, and the inventory increases. The nickel market is in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to decline [88][89][91]. - **Stainless Steel**: Oscillates downward. The stainless steel inventory increases, and the price is affected by tariffs. It is expected to oscillate weakly [92][93][95]. Energy and Chemicals - **Industrial Silicon**: Go long at the lower end of the range. Some silicon plants experience production disruptions, and the demand is strong in the short term. It is recommended to go long near the low point of the September disk [95][96][97]. - **Polysilicon**: The supply - side expectations are intertwined with weak reality. The US government cancels some energy projects. The polysilicon market is affected by production increases and potential cuts [97][98].

Report Overview - Report Title: Fuel Oil and Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil Weekly Report [1] - Analyst: Liang Kefang from Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute [1] - Date: October 12, 2025 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Fuel oil prices have been falling and reached this year's low. High-sulfur fuel oil market transactions have slightly improved, and the premium has increased. Middle East shipments remain high, but Russia's high-sulfur exports are unlikely to recover due to domestic fuel shortages and reduced refining capacity caused by drone attacks, which will support the Asia-Pacific spot market. Low-sulfur fuel oil in the Asia-Pacific region has no obvious supply gap, and spot shipments are normal. Singapore's bunker sales data in August were good, providing some support on the demand side. For the domestic market, the quota issue has been fully priced in, but inventory has continued to accumulate in Zhoushan, and there are still warehouse receipts on the futures market. The price difference between LU and Singapore spot means that imports can be an effective supplement in case of domestic shortages, so LU's valuation will be suppressed in the near future, and LU may continue to be weaker than FU in the short term [4]. - Valuation: FU: 2650 - 3000; LU: 3150 - 3450 [4] - Strategies: 1) Unilateral: FU and LU follow the decline of crude oil and enter a short-term weak cycle. 2) Inter-period: The spreads of FU and LU have slightly weakened. 3) Inter-variety: FU crack spreads are oscillating at a high level; the LU - FU spread may still slightly shrink in the short term [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Supply - **Refinery Operation**: Data on the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries (crude oil: atmospheric and vacuum distillation units), independent refineries, and major refineries are presented, covering multiple years from 2016 - 2025 [6]. - **Global Refinery Maintenance**: Data on the maintenance volumes of global CDU, hydrocracking, FCC, and coking units from 2018 - 2025 are provided [9][11][13][14]. - **Domestic Refinery Fuel Oil Production and Commercial Volume**: Data on the monthly production of fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil by Chinese refineries, and the domestic commercial volume of fuel oil from 2018 - 2025 are shown [20]. 3.2 Demand - **Domestic and Overseas Fuel Oil Demand Data**: Data on the monthly actual consumption of marine fuel oil in China, the monthly sales of fuel oil bunkering in Singapore, and the monthly apparent consumption of fuel oil in China from 2018 - 2025 are presented [23]. 3.3 Inventory - **Global Fuel Oil Spot Inventory**: Data on the inventories of heavy oil in Singapore, fuel oil in European ARA, heavy distillates in Fujairah, and residual fuel oil in the US from 2018 - 2025 are provided [26][28][29]. 3.4 Price and Spread - **Asia-Pacific Regional Spot FOB Prices**: Data on the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in Fujairah, 3.5% fuel oil in Singapore, 3.5% and 1% fuel oil in the Mediterranean, and 1% fuel oil in Northwest Europe from 2018 - 2025 are presented [34][35][37][39][40][42]. - **European Regional Spot FOB Prices**: Data on the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in Northwest Europe, 3.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, high-sulfur fuel oil cargo in New York Harbor, and low-sulfur straight-run fuel oil in USAC from 2018 - 2025 are provided [44][45]. - **Paper and Derivative Prices**: Data on the prices of high-sulfur and low-sulfur swaps in Northwest Europe and Singapore, as well as the prices of FU and LU futures contracts, are presented [47][48][51][53]. - **Fuel Oil Spot Spread**: Data on the price difference between high and low-sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and the viscosity spread in Singapore from 2019 - 2025 are provided [57][59]. - **Global Fuel Oil Crack Spread**: Data on the crack spreads of high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe from 2019 - 2025 are presented [62][63][64]. - **Global Fuel Oil Paper Monthly Spread**: Data on the monthly spreads of high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe are provided [66]. 3.5 Import and Export - **Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: Data on the monthly import and export volumes of fuel oil (excluding biodiesel) in China from 2018 - 2025 are presented [71][73]. - **Global High-Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: Data on the weekly import and export volumes of global high-sulfur fuel oil in various regions are provided [75]. - **Global Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: Data on the weekly import and export volumes of global low-sulfur fuel oil in various regions are provided [77]. 3.6 Futures Market Indicators and Internal-External Spreads - **Review and Logic**: The Asia-Pacific fuel oil prices dropped significantly this week, and the Zhoushan market moved in tandem. The internal FU and LU were relatively stronger than the external market, and the premium continued to rise. The domestic and overseas spot prices continued to fall under the influence of crude oil prices, but the domestic decline was relatively smaller, causing the internal-external spreads to widen. For FU, as the number of warehouse receipts on the futures market decreased, FU performed relatively stronger than the external spot price, and the spread is expected to remain at the current level until the number of warehouse receipts significantly recovers. Similarly, the newly issued quota is small, which significantly supports LU's valuation, and the spread between LU and the external spot will also remain at the current level until the import volume significantly increases [80]. - **Internal-External Spread Data**: Data on the internal-external spreads of 380 spot, 0.5% spot, FU main contract, FU continuous first contract, LU continuous contract, LU continuous first contract, and LU continuous second contract against Singapore from October 6 - 10, 2025 are provided [81]. - **Spot Market Internal-External Spread**: Data on the internal-external spreads of 380 spot, 0.5% spot, FU continuous first contract, LU continuous contract, LU continuous first contract, and FU main contract against Singapore from 2021 - 2025 are presented [84][85][91][93]. - **FU and LU Positions and Trading Volume Changes**: Data on the trading volumes and positions of fuel oil main contract, fuel oil continuous first contract, low-sulfur fuel oil continuous contract, and low-sulfur fuel oil continuous first contract from 2020 - 2025 are provided [95][97][100][103]. - **FU and LU Warehouse Receipt Quantity Changes**: Data on the quantity changes of FU and LU warehouse receipts from 2020 - 2025 are presented [106][107].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for each specific energy and chemical product, the following ratings are given: - Crude oil: Oscillating [1] - Fuel oil: Oscillating [3] - Asphalt: Oscillating [3] - Polyester: Oscillating [5] - Rubber: Oscillating [7] - Methanol: Oscillating [8] - Polyolefins: Oscillating weakly [8] - Polyvinyl chloride (PVC): Oscillating [9] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Crude oil**: Geopolitical tensions have eased with the Israel - Hamas cease - fire agreement, leading to a decline in the geopolitical premium of crude oil and downward pressure on oil prices. US refinery operations and inventory data show an increase in commercial crude oil inventories and a decrease in gasoline and distillate inventories. Under the triple tests of supply increase expectations, geopolitical factor easing, and demand entering the off - season, oil prices are expected to continue their weakening trend [1]. - **Fuel oil**: Although the East - West arbitrage window for low - sulfur fuel oil is mostly closed, the inflow of component oils for blending low - sulfur fuel oil continues to increase. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market is relatively stable, but the supply may increase in the future. The high - sulfur fundamentals may be slightly stronger than the low - sulfur [3]. - **Asphalt**: During the National Day holiday, the overall supply of asphalt increased slightly. The continuous rainfall in the southern regions hinders downstream construction, while the northern regions still have some catch - up demand. The recent significant increase in asphalt production may put pressure on prices after the peak season [3]. - **Polyester**: In the fourth quarter, there will be some overseas PX device overhauls, and the ethylene glycol production capacity may continue to increase. The demand for winter fabrics has recovered seasonally but is expected to weaken in the second half of October. Under the situation of supply increase and demand weakening, the fundamentals of TA and ethylene glycol are weak, and their prices are expected to oscillate weakly [5]. - **Rubber**: Affected by Typhoon "Maideme", the rubber production in Hainan Island is expected to decrease. The US tariff on heavy - truck imports may suppress global rubber demand. After the holiday, rubber prices are expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to new rubber warehouse receipts and crude oil price fluctuations [7]. - **Methanol**: The market is concerned about Iran's winter gas - rationing news. With the recovery of MTO device operations in East China, port demand has significantly increased, but MTO profit compression may affect refinery maintenance plans. In the short term, methanol prices are suppressed by high inventories and tend to oscillate [8]. - **Polyolefins**: Poor profit performance may lead to a high level of maintenance, and domestic production is unlikely to increase significantly in the short term. After the holiday, downstream orders will gradually decline, affecting the procurement of raw materials. Supply pressure remains high, demand has peaked and declined, and polyolefin prices are expected to oscillate weakly [8]. - **PVC**: In the fourth quarter, high - supply status will continue. As the peak season in October ends, downstream operations are expected to decline, and exports may weaken due to India's anti - dumping duties. High inventory pressure will restrict price increases, and market fluctuations may increase [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude oil**: On Thursday, the price of WTI November contract closed at $61.51 per barrel, down $1.04 or 1.66%. Brent December contract closed at $65.22 per barrel, down $1.03 or 1.55%. SC2511 closed at 464.2 yuan per barrel, down 4.5 yuan or 0.96%. Israel's approval of the Gaza cease - fire agreement led to a decline in the geopolitical premium. US refinery operations and inventory data show an increase in commercial crude oil inventories and a decrease in gasoline and distillate inventories [1]. - **Fuel oil**: On Thursday, the main contract of fuel oil (FU2601) on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 1.25% at 2,834 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil main contract (LU2511) closed down 1.23% at 3,360 yuan per ton. The inflow of component oils for blending low - sulfur fuel oil continues to increase, and the Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market is relatively stable [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main contract of asphalt (BU2511) on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 1.52% at 3,375 yuan per ton. During the National Day holiday, the overall supply of asphalt increased slightly, and the southern rainfall affected downstream construction [3]. - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4,626 yuan per ton, up 1.54%. EG2601 closed at 4,234 yuan per ton, up 0.52%. In the fourth quarter, there will be some overseas PX device overhauls, and the ethylene glycol production capacity may increase. The demand for winter fabrics has recovered seasonally but is expected to weaken [5]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai - traded rubber (RU2601) rose 95 yuan per ton to 15,620 yuan per ton. Affected by Typhoon "Maideme", rubber production in Hainan Island is expected to decrease, and the US tariff on heavy - truck imports may suppress demand [7]. - **Methanol**: On Thursday, the spot price in Taicang was 2,213 yuan per ton. The market is concerned about Iran's winter gas - rationing news. With the recovery of MTO device operations in East China, port demand has increased [8]. - **Polyolefins**: On Thursday, the mainstream price of East - China drawn polypropylene was 6,700 - 6,800 yuan per ton. Poor profit performance may lead to high - level maintenance, and domestic production is unlikely to increase significantly in the short term. After the holiday, downstream orders will decline [8]. - **PVC**: On Thursday, the price of PVC in the East - China market decreased. In the fourth quarter, high - supply status will continue, and downstream operations are expected to decline as the peak season ends [9]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes for various energy and chemical products on October 10, 2025, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, methanol, urea, polyethylene, polypropylene, PTA, ethylene glycol, styrene, natural rubber, 20 - grade rubber, and soda ash [10]. 3.3 Market News - Israel and Hamas have reached a long - sought cease - fire and personnel release agreement, which weakens the geopolitical risk premium of crude oil and triggers investors to sell [12]. - In the absence of strong new signals in supply and demand, crude oil prices have also declined with the broader market. The US government shutdown and the strengthening of the US dollar have reduced the attractiveness of dollar - denominated commodities. Oil prices are likely to remain range - bound and slightly downward [12]. 3.4 Chart Analysis 3.4.1 Main Contract Prices The report presents the closing price trends of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - grade rubber, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, European container shipping, and p - xylene [14][17][20][21][23][25][27][28]. 3.4.2 Main Contract Basis The report shows the basis trends of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - grade rubber, p - xylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [31][35][36][39][42][44]. 3.4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads The report displays the spreads between different contracts for various energy and chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, European container shipping index, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [46][48][51][54][58][60]. 3.4.4 Inter - variety Spreads The report presents the spreads and ratios between different varieties of energy and chemical products, including crude oil internal and external spreads, crude oil B - W spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - grade rubber spread [62][65][67][68]. 3.4.5 Production Profits The report shows the production profit trends of ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE from 2021 to 2025 [70][73]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Assistant to the director of the research institute and director of energy and chemicals, with over a decade of experience in futures and derivatives market research, has won multiple industry awards [77]. - **Du Bingqin**: Analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with in - depth research on the energy industry chain and has won many industry awards [78]. - **Di Yilin**: Analyst for natural rubber and polyester, with strong data analysis and logical thinking abilities, and has won several industry awards [79]. - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC, with experience in integrating financial theory and industrial operations [80].

Report Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★ (indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Fuel oil: Not clearly defined in a comparable way - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Not clearly defined in a comparable way - Asphalt: ★★★ (indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★☆☆ (indicating a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement but poor operability on the trading floor) [1] Core Views - The overall international oil prices declined around the National Day holiday. The subsequent market will focus on the pressure of loose supply - demand, and the strategy of combining high - level short positions in SC with out - of - the - money call options should be opportunistically and temporarily closed for profit [2] - The fuel oil market will follow the trend of crude oil. High - sulfur fuel oil will be affected by geopolitical factors, while low - sulfur fuel oil will face continuous pressure from loose supply - demand [3] - The supply - demand of asphalt remains in a tight balance. With the weakening of the cost side, asphalt is expected to be under limited pressure and its crack spread has upward potential [4] - The short - term LPG is under pressure due to the lack of positive support, and attention should be paid to the improvement of combustion demand after the temperature drops [5] Summary by Directory Crude Oil - International oil prices rebounded after OPEC+ did not significantly increase production as expected. The SC11 contract dropped 1.98% on the first trading day after the holiday. US crude oil inventories increased by 3715000 barrels last week, but the relatively strong refined oil apparent demand in the past four weeks supported the oil price [2] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - The fuel oil market opened lower following the cost side. High - sulfur fuel oil is relatively resistant to decline due to geopolitical risks, but may face supply pressure in the medium term. Low - sulfur fuel oil has sufficient overseas supply, weak demand, and the pressure of loose supply - demand remains unchanged [3] Asphalt - The overall commercial inventory decreased compared with that before the holiday. The planned production in October increased by 350000 tons year - on - year and decreased by 400 tons month - on - month. The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the asphalt is expected to be under limited pressure [4] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The price of Saudi CP in October was much lower than expected, and the import cost decreased. The market sentiment is cautious, and the short - term LPG is under pressure [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the energy and chemical products in the report are rated as "volatile" [1][2][3][6][8] 2. Core Views of the Report - Oil prices are facing complex event-driven factors during the holiday. OPEC+ may increase production, and the US government shutdown issue and non - farm data may impact demand expectations. Saudi Arabia may raise crude oil prices for Asian buyers in November. It is recommended that investors participate with light positions [1]. - For fuel oil, recent drone attacks in Ukraine and seasonal refinery maintenance in Russia may affect supply. Domestic imports and refinery feed demand may support prices. Prices may fluctuate with oil prices, and light - position operation is advised [2]. - In the case of asphalt, the planned production in October is expected to be the highest for the year, which may limit price increases. Light - position operation is recommended [2]. - Regarding polyester, pay attention to new capacity scales and release rhythms, as well as the performance of the "Golden September and Silver October" season and overseas orders. Anti - dumping investigations may change the logistics of some suppliers [2][3]. - For rubber, adverse weather may affect production, and trade barriers may limit trade flows. Attention should be paid to tariff policies and cost - end price fluctuations [3]. - In the methanol market, the focus is on the start - up of Iranian plants. The recovery of port demand may compress MTO profits. Light - position operation is recommended to control risks [6]. - For polyolefins, although supply pressure is high, external demand can supplement domestic demand, and prices may fluctuate with oil prices. Light - position operation is recommended [6][8]. - PVC is restricted by high inventory, and the 10 - month important meeting may cause market fluctuations. Light - position operation is recommended [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, oil prices dropped significantly. OPEC+ may increase production by at least 137,000 barrels per day on October 5. Excessive production increase will be bearish for prices. The US government shutdown and non - farm data may impact demand. Saudi Arabia may raise November prices for Asian buyers. Oil prices are volatile, and light - position participation is advised [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The main contracts of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil rose slightly on Monday. Drone attacks and refinery maintenance may affect supply. Domestic imports and refinery demand may support prices. Prices may follow oil price fluctuations, and light - position operation is recommended [2]. - **Asphalt**: The main contract rose on Monday. The planned production in October is expected to be the highest for the year, which may limit price increases. Light - position operation is recommended [2]. - **Polyester**: TA601, EG2601, and PX futures rose slightly. Pay attention to new capacity and demand. Anti - dumping investigations may change supplier logistics [2][3]. - **Rubber**: Rubber prices fell on Monday. Adverse weather may affect production, and trade barriers may limit trade flows. Pay attention to tariff policies and cost - end prices [3]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices are affected by the start - up of Iranian plants and port demand. The recovery of port demand may compress MTO profits. Light - position operation is recommended [6]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin prices are affected by profit and demand. Although supply pressure is high, external demand can supplement domestic demand. Prices may fluctuate with oil prices, and light - position operation is recommended [6][8]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: PVC prices are restricted by high inventory. The 10 - month important meeting may cause market fluctuations. Light - position operation is recommended [8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on September 30, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes compared with previous days, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [9]. 3.3 Market News - OPEC+ may approve a new round of crude oil production increase of at least 137,000 barrels per day on October 5 to regain market share [13]. - A preliminary survey shows that US crude oil and gasoline inventories are expected to increase last week, while distillate inventories may decline. API and EIA will release inventory reports [13]. 3.4 Chart Analysis 3.4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, LPG, PTA, etc. [15][16][17][19][20][22][23][24][26][27][28][29] 3.4.2 Main Contract Basis - It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc., including historical data from 2021 - 2025 [30][32][36][39][42][43] 3.4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The report provides the spread charts of different contracts for various products, like fuel oil, asphalt, etc., including historical data [45][47][50][53][57][59] 3.4.4 Inter - variety Spreads - It presents the spread and ratio charts between different varieties, such as crude oil internal - external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc., including historical data [61][66][67][68] 3.4.5 Production Profits - The report shows the production profit charts of some products, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol and PP [71] 4. Research Team Members - **Zhong Meiyan**: Assistant Director and Energy - Chemical Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute, with over ten years of experience in futures derivatives research [78]. - **Du Bingqin**: Analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with in - depth research on the energy industry [79]. - **Di Yilin**: Analyst for natural rubber and polyester, with achievements in research and media contributions [80]. - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC, with experience in energy - chemical spot - futures trading [81]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The high - sulfur fuel oil market structure has shown signs of stabilization, with reduced supply pressure and marginal improvement in refinery demand. However, there is still resistance above the valuation due to potential seasonal consumption decline. The low - sulfur fuel oil market has limited supply pressure, and there are long - term substitution risks, but the downside space is also limited [5]. - For high - sulfur fuel oil, the short - term outlook is neutral, and the medium - term outlook is downward. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the short - term outlook is neutral, and the medium - term outlook is downward. It is recommended to go long on the FU2511 - 2512 spread at low prices (positive spread trading) [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - With the escalation of the geopolitical situation, crude oil prices rebounded this week, boosting the downstream energy sector. The fundamentals of high - sulfur fuel oil improved marginally, and the cancellation of some FU futures warehouse receipts strengthened the futures market structure. The weekly increase of the FU main contract was 4.36%, and that of the LU main contract was 1.9% [1]. Supply - **High - sulfur fuel oil**: In September, the expected shipments of high - sulfur fuel oil from Iran are 1280,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 50,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 460,000 tons; from Russia, 2.89 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 330,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 70,000 tons; from the Middle East, 2.5 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.26 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 1.12 million tons [2]. - **Low - sulfur fuel oil**: In September, the expected shipments of low - sulfur fuel oil from Nigeria are 530,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 220,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 530,000 tons; from Kuwait, 240,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 130,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 150,000 tons. Brazilian exports decreased significantly in September. In August, the domestic production of low - sulfur fuel oil for bonded use in Chinese refineries was 1.065 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 46,000 tons or 4.51%. Overall, the supply pressure of low - sulfur fuel oil is still limited [2]. Demand - Although the impact of US tariffs on shipping demand has not been fully reflected, there is still downward pressure on trade and shipping demand in the medium term. High - sulfur fuel oil demand in the marine fuel sector is more resilient, but the summer power generation demand has not exceeded the seasonal level. The demand for low - sulfur fuel oil in the marine fuel sector is average, and its market share is being gradually replaced [3]. Inventory - This week, the fuel oil inventory in Singapore was 22.804 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 10.26%; the fuel oil inventory in Zhoushan Port was 1.19 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 10.19% [4]. Strategy - **High - sulfur fuel oil**: Short - term neutral, medium - term downward. - **Low - sulfur fuel oil**: Short - term neutral, medium - term downward. - **Cross - variety**: None. - **Cross - period**: Go long on the FU2511 - 2512 spread at low prices (positive spread trading). - **Spot - futures**: None. - **Options**: None [6]