近期上市新股首日表现 | 代码 | 简称 | 上市日期 | 发行价（元） | 发行市盈率（倍） | 首日开盘涨跌幅（%） | 所属行业 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600930 | N华新 | 2025.07.16 | 3.18 | 15.28 | 72.96 | 公用事业 | | 301630 | C同宇 | 2025.07.10 | 84.00 | 23.94 | 114.29 | 电子 | | 688729 | 屹唐股份 | 2025.07.08 | 8.45 | 51.55 | 210.06 | 电子 | | 001388 | 信通电子 | 2025.07.01 | 16.42 | 20.39 | 265.41 | 电力设备 | | 920037 | 广信科技 | 2025.06.26 | 10.00 | 7.61 | 400.00 | 电力设备 | | 301678 | 新恒汇 | 2025.06.20 | 12.80 | 17.76 | 290.63 | 电子 | | 603400 | 华之杰 | 2025.06.20 | 19. ...

创业板股最新融资余额为3683.92亿元，环比增加9.27亿元，23只股融资余额环比增长超10%，融资余额 环比降幅超10%的有13只。 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，7月15日创业板指上涨1.73%，创业板股两融余额合计3695.13亿元，较上一 交易日增加9.46亿元，已连续7个交易日增加。其中，融资余额合计3683.92亿元，环比上一日增加9.27 亿元；为连续7个交易日增加。融券余额11.22亿元，环比增加1841.37万元。 具体来看，融资余额增长的创业板股有421只，其中，23股融资余额增幅超过10%。增幅最大的是首都 在线，该股最新融资余额1.17亿元，环比上一交易日增幅为298.81%；股价表现上，该股当日上涨 3.04%，表现强于创业板指；融资余额增幅较多的还有科泰电源、每日互动等，分别增长249.12%、 135.86%。 融资余额增幅10%以上的个股中，从市场表现来看，当日平均上涨2.30%，上涨的有16只，涨幅居前的 有东田微、华新环保、德固特，涨幅分别为13.92%、11.43%、10.40%。跌幅居前的有欣灵电气、莱美 药业、龙利得，跌幅分别为8.50%、4.37%、2.88%。 资金 ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - As of July 15, the total margin financing and securities lending balance on the Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) was 5.907 billion yuan, showing a decrease of 4.8957 million yuan from the previous trading day [1]. Financing and Margin Data - The margin balance was 5.906 billion yuan, down by 4.8844 million yuan, while the securities lending balance was 76.82 thousand yuan, down by 1.13 thousand yuan [1]. - The stocks with the highest margin balances included Jinbo Biological, Airong Software, and Better Ray, with balances of 358 million yuan, 173 million yuan, and 150 million yuan respectively [1]. - The average margin balance as a percentage of market capitalization for these stocks was 1.15%, with the highest ratios seen in Shengye Electric, Tiangang Co., and Weimao Electronics at 5.62%, 5.59%, and 3.35% respectively [1]. Net Buying and Selling Trends - On July 15, 135 stocks had net margin purchases, with 43 stocks exceeding one million yuan in net buying [2]. - The top net buying stock was Dingzhi Technology, with a net purchase of 5.7338 million yuan, followed by Wanyuantong and Wuxin Tunnel Equipment with net purchases of 5.5752 million yuan and 5.0978 million yuan respectively [2]. - The stocks with the highest net selling included Keli Co., Development Technology, and Shuguang Digital Creation, with net selling amounts of 7.6503 million yuan, 5.4806 million yuan, and 4.7196 million yuan respectively [2]. Industry Performance - The industries with the most stocks exceeding one million yuan in net purchases were machinery equipment, electric power equipment, and computers, with 10, 8, and 5 stocks respectively [2]. - The average decline for stocks with net purchases over one million yuan was 1.05%, while the top gainers included Xin'an Clean, Guangmai Technology, and Sanyou Technology, which rose by 6.40%, 5.30%, and 4.99% respectively [2]. Trading Activity - The weighted average turnover rate for stocks with net purchases over one million yuan was 6.17%, with the highest turnover rates seen in Guoyuan Technology, Kerun Zhikong, and Xin'an Clean at 19.89%, 18.88%, and 15.42% respectively [2]. - The average turnover rate for BSE stocks on that day was 4.50% [2].

证券研究报告 2025 年 07 月 16 日 | 市场数据 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 收盘 | 涨跌% | | 上证指数 | 3505.00 | -0.42 | | 深证成指 | 10744.56 | 0.56 | | 创业板指 | 2235.05 | 1.73 | | 科创 50 | 996.25 | 0.39 | | 北证 50 | 1412.12 | -1.15 | | 沪深 300 | 4019.06 | 0.03 | A 股市场概览 | 类别 | 总市值 | 流通市 | 市盈率 | 市净率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | (亿元) | 值(亿元) | PE | PB | | 上证指数 | 679977 | 528906 | 12.56 | 1.30 | | 深证成指 | 234483 | 193178 | 20.91 | 2.21 | | 创业板指 | 62314 | 49686 | 29.16 | 4.04 | | 科创 50 | 34828 | 23217 | 54.16 | 4.19 | | 北证 50 ...

他认为，一是算力，看好受益于AI发展的通信、电子等行业；二是基本面边际改善、股价和估值仍有 修复空间的医药生物。此外，"反内卷"和供给侧逻辑驱动下，电力设备、钢铁等行业值得关注。 深圳新里程（002219）总经理赖戌播表示，上市公司中报业绩行情值得期待。当前A股市场上升趋势良 好，持续兑现的盈利增长承诺，是支撑企业估值中枢稳步抬升的核心。上市公司中报披露季期间，投资 者可挖掘中报业绩持续增长标的。业绩超预期和业绩同比、环比大增标的，有望成为中报业绩炒作主 线；而业绩预减、下修或亏损的公司，后市投资者应以回避为主。他认为，投资者应重点关注前期涨幅 小、估值低，但近期基本面和业绩有明显改善的个股，比如人工智能、半导体、医药生物、华为产业链 等，特别是业绩超预期滞涨蓝筹机会或更大。 光大证券首席分析师张宇生表示，市场即将迎来中报披露高峰期，中报业绩表现较好的行业，在7月至8 月的股价表现通常更好。业绩作为7月至8月市场中重要的增量信息，自然会受到很多投资者的关注。从 历史数据来看，每年7月至8月业绩表现好的行业，取得超额收益的概率相对较高。短期关注中报业绩有 望占优的板块，中长期则重点关注3条主线：内需消费、科技自 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.42% on July 15, with six industries experiencing gains, led by the communication and computer sectors, which rose by 4.61% and 1.42% respectively. The coal and agriculture sectors saw the largest declines, down by 1.92% and 1.62% respectively [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The main capital flow showed a net outflow of 41.186 billion yuan across the two markets, with only three industries seeing net inflows: communication (2.151 billion yuan), computer (1.839 billion yuan), and a minor inflow in the comprehensive sector (178.56 million yuan) [1] - The electric equipment industry experienced the largest net outflow, totaling 5.055 billion yuan, followed by the non-ferrous metals industry with a net outflow of 4.508 billion yuan. Other sectors with significant outflows included basic chemicals, pharmaceuticals, and defense [1] Electric Equipment Industry Performance - The electric equipment industry declined by 0.74% with a total of 358 stocks, of which 68 rose and 288 fell. One stock hit the daily limit up while another hit the limit down [2] - Within the electric equipment sector, 75 stocks saw net inflows, with six stocks receiving over 100 million yuan in inflows. The top inflow was for Kehua Data, which attracted 394 million yuan, followed by Hengdian East Magnetic and Kotec Power with inflows of 278 million yuan and 236 million yuan respectively [2] - The outflow list for the electric equipment sector included six stocks with outflows exceeding 100 million yuan, led by Sunshine Power and CATL, both with outflows of 346 million yuan, followed by Kelu Electronics with an outflow of 266 million yuan [2][4] Top Gainers in Electric Equipment - The top gainers in the electric equipment sector included: - Kehua Data: +6.95% with a turnover rate of 14.34% and a main capital flow of 393.85 million yuan - Hengdian East Magnetic: +7.69% with a turnover rate of 10.82% and a main capital flow of 277.98 million yuan - Kotec Power: +6.28% with a turnover rate of 17.48% and a main capital flow of 236.49 million yuan [2] Top Losers in Electric Equipment - The top losers in the electric equipment sector included: - Sunshine Power: -0.61% with a turnover rate of 2.88% and a main capital flow of -346.33 million yuan - CATL: -0.28% with a turnover rate of 0.43% and a main capital flow of -345.96 million yuan - Kelu Electronics: -1.67% with a turnover rate of 22.73% and a main capital flow of -265.52 million yuan [4]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [7][14] Core Insights - The report highlights that the improvement in chip supply is expected to positively influence capital expenditure (Capex) recovery and tender rhythm, with a focus on the domestic computing power market in the second half of the year [2][4] - Key events include NVIDIA's announcement to resume sales of H20 in China and the introduction of the B30 GPU, which has already received orders worth $1 billion [3][4] - The report indicates that the overall Capex from major manufacturers is anticipated to significantly increase starting Q3, with Alibaba's proposed investment of 380 billion yuan over three years, suggesting a recovery in the power equipment supply chain [4] Supply Side Summary - The chip supply is set to recover, leading to a substantial increase in capital expenditure from major manufacturers, which will accelerate the release of orders for electromechanical equipment [4] - Factors contributing to this improvement include geopolitical stability, the imminent resumption of H20 sales, and strong demand for B30 testing [4] Demand Side Summary - The exponential growth in inference/training tokens is expected to drive demand for computing power, which will, in turn, boost chip shipments and cloud manufacturers' Capex [5] - Notable developments include META's plan to expand Hyperion to 5GW and Tesla's integration of Grok into its AI systems, enhancing vehicle interaction and autonomous driving capabilities [5] Investment Recommendations - For power generation: The supply-demand balance may remain neutral to tight, with short-term urgent orders likely to catalyze price increases. Companies to watch include Yuchai International, Chongqing Machinery, Weichai Heavy Machinery, and Keta Power [6] - For power distribution: Orders and deliveries from leading manufacturers are expected to maintain high growth alongside Capex releases, with potential price reduction risks from large-scale procurement. Recommended companies include Zhongheng Electric, Oulu Tong, Kehua Data, and others [6] - For liquid cooling: The demand for cooling in data centers is high, benefiting from increased orders in North America. Companies to focus on include Ice Wheel Environment, Inveck, and others [6] - For HVLP copper foil: The rise in AI server power consumption is expected to drive demand for high-end PCB copper foil. Companies to monitor include Defu Technology and Tongguan Copper Foil [6] - Other segments include switchgear and computing power leasing, with companies like Liangxin Stock and Hongjing Technology being highlighted [6]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the net inflow and outflow of funds across various industries, indicating a significant disparity in investment trends, with the communication sector experiencing the highest net inflow and the electric equipment sector facing the largest net outflow [1][2]. Industry Summary - **Communication**: - Net inflow of funds: 2.151 billion - Change in trading volume: +29.35% - Price change: +4.61% - Turnover rate: 2.13% [1] - **Computer**: - Net inflow of funds: 1.839 billion - Change in trading volume: +24.97% - Price change: +1.42% - Turnover rate: 5.02% [1] - **Electric Equipment**: - Net outflow of funds: -5.055 billion - Change in trading volume: +5.70% - Price change: -0.74% - Turnover rate: 3.28% [2] - **Non-banking Financial**: - Net outflow of funds: -2.960 billion - Change in trading volume: -19.95% - Price change: -0.59% - Turnover rate: 1.55% [2] - **Pharmaceutical**: - Net outflow of funds: -3.550 billion - Change in trading volume: +12.72% - Price change: -0.13% - Turnover rate: 2.72% [2] - **Basic Chemical**: - Net outflow of funds: -3.567 billion - Change in trading volume: +14.17% - Price change: -1.00% - Turnover rate: 2.65% [2] - **Steel**: - Net outflow of funds: -0.058 billion - Change in trading volume: -24.20% - Price change: -1.24% - Turnover rate: 2.04% [1] - **Real Estate**: - Net outflow of funds: -0.838 billion - Change in trading volume: +11.46% - Price change: -0.98% - Turnover rate: 2.72% [1]

Market Overview - On July 15, the A-share market showed a mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3505 points, down 0.42%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.56% to 10744.56 points, and the ChiNext Index increased by 1.73% to 2235.05 points. The total trading volume for both markets reached 16120.48 billion yuan, an increase of 1533.09 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1]. Capital Flow Analysis - The net outflow of main funds from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets exceeded 250 billion yuan, with an opening net outflow of 65.84 billion yuan and a closing net inflow of 26.86 billion yuan, resulting in an overall net outflow of 254.8 billion yuan for the day [2]. - Over the last five trading days, the main funds have consistently shown a net outflow trend, with the highest outflow recorded on July 9 at 285.94 billion yuan [3]. Sector Performance - The ChiNext market experienced a significant net outflow of 106.31 billion yuan, while the CSI 300 index saw a smaller net outflow of 3.77 billion yuan [4]. - In terms of sector performance, the telecommunications sector had a net inflow of 64.48 billion yuan, while the power equipment sector faced the largest net outflow of 102.19 billion yuan [6]. Institutional Activity - The top stocks with significant institutional net buying included Zhongji Xuchuang, which saw a 16.68% increase with a net buy of 816.71 million yuan, and Xinyi Sheng, which rose by 20% with a net buy of 80.56 million yuan [9]. - Institutions have shown interest in several stocks, with notable ratings and target prices indicating potential upside, such as Huanlan Environment with a target price of 31.95 yuan, representing a potential increase of 24.71% from its latest closing price [11].

1．情绪模型观点：市场情绪得分有所上升 根据《从结构化视角全新打造市场情绪择时模型》文中提到的构建思路，目前我们用于构建市场情绪结构指标所用到 的细分指标如下表。 在指标合成方法上，模型采用打分的方式，根据每个分项指标所提示的情绪方向和所处布林轨道位置计算各指标分 数，指标分数可分为（-1，0，1）三种情况，最终对各个指标分数等权求和。最终的情绪结构指标为求和后分数的20 日均线，如图1所示，指标整体围绕0轴在[-6,6]的范围内上下波动，近5年A股市场情绪波动较大，其中2023年大部分 时间指标都处于较低位置，直至2024年10月市场情绪得分突破2。 1.1 从分项指标出发：行业交易拥挤度上升，PCR结合VIX指标同步转正反映市场情绪修复 本周各项情绪指标分数较上周有一定边际回升。 行业间交易波动率上升代表当前资金活跃度回暖，资金观点分歧减 弱、短期情绪不确定性下降；行业涨跌趋势指标继续提示行业涨跌趋势不强，指标位置大幅提升但是上攻力量略显不 足，因此短期内可能迎来进一步调整。另外PCR结合VIX指标由负转正，行业交易拥挤度指标同样反应市场情绪的进 一步上升。综合各项指标，模型得出市场情绪得到一定修复。 截 ...