策略研究 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2025 年 4 月 29 日 策略周报 AI 产业链有望重回主线 政治局会议延续基调，地产、消费政策进一步发力或仍需等待二季度经济数 据验证， "人工智能+"表述有所强化有机会重回主线。 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 策略研究 证券分析师：王君 (8610)66229061 jun.wang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300519060003 证券分析师：徐沛东 (8621)20328702 peidong.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300518020001 证券分析师：郭晓希 (8610)66229019 xiaoxi.guo@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521110001 证券分析师：徐亚 (8621)20328506 ya.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521070003 政策预期阶段性落地，短期震荡不改中期向好，科技产业具备长期趋 势。周五政治局会议召开，市场政策预期阶段性落地。总体来看，本次 ...

本周是五一长假前的最后一个交易周，上市公司年报和一季报也将披露完毕，泓德基金表示，市场未来 三个月将进入业绩的真空期，外部环境的变化可能的对国内资本市场产生一定程度的扰动，但我们相 信，按照政治局会议的部署，统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争，坚定不移办好自己的事，坚定不移扩 大高水平对外开放，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，以高质量发展的确定性应对外部环境急剧 变化的不确定性，中国经济这艘巨轮可以行稳致远。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 整体来看，泓德基金分析，当前政策仍处于以"筹备"和"积蓄弹性"为主的阶段，结构性调控和局部支持 依然是主旋律，这使得市场将更多将目光聚焦于中美谈判进展以及潜在的降关税交易预期上。 从债券市场看，泓德基金表示，上周利率债收益率普遍上行。信用债收益率也多数上行。MLF超额续 作短暂提振但未能扭转观望情绪，超长端波动收窄显示市场分歧仍在，市场仍在等待央行降准降息。 上周国内权益市场延续小幅反弹走势，日均成交量相较上上周变化不大，维持在1.1万亿元附近，万得 全A周涨幅为1.15%。具体来看，国内主要股指中，小型股股指涨幅较大，中证1000（+1.8%）和中证 2000（ ...

另外海外方面，克利夫兰联邦储备银行行长 Beth Hammack,在 4 月 24 日发言时表明如果有明确经济走弱方面的证据， 美联储最早可能在 6 月采取降息的行动。受此消息的推动，海外市场定价降息预期的程度提升，10 年期美债利率有所 回落。若短期贸易冲突舆情不继续加剧，我们预期海外资金风险偏好会有所回升。所以对于未来一周，在国内外政策 端和情绪面的支持下，我们战术性仓位推荐切换至人工智能和电子等板块。 本周央行通过 7 天逆回购投放了 8820 亿元，到期 8080 亿元，整体通过公开市场操作净投放 740 亿元。短端 1 周 SHIBOR 和 DR007，分别报 1.638%和 1.6587%，较上周分别下降 1.6 BP 和 5.29 BP。1 个月 SHIBOR 和 3 个月 SHIBOR 分别报 1.747%和 1.75%，较上周分别下降 1.6 BP 和 1.1 BP。 结合经济面和流动性来看，对于未来一周，我们建议核心仓位维持在大盘价值，而战术性仓位推荐切换至人工智能和 电子等板块。从中期来看，根据我们构建的宏观择时策略给出的信号，4 月份权益推荐仓位为 25%。拆分来看，模型 对 4 月份 ...

证券研究报告：金融工程报告 发布时间：2025-04-28 研究所 分析师:肖承志 SAC 登记编号:S1340524090001 Email:xiaochengzhi@cnpsec.com 研究助理:李子凯 SAC 登记编号:S1340124100014 Email:lizikai@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《OpenAI 发布 GPT-4.1，智谱发布 GLM- 4-32B-0414 系 列 — — AI 动态汇总 20250421》 - 2025.04.23 《国家队交易特征显著，短期指数仍交 易补缺预期，TMT 类题材仍需等待—— 行业轮动周报 20250427》- 2025.04.21 《小市值强势，动量风格占优——中邮 因子周报 20250420》 – 2025.04.21 《基本面与量价共振，如遇回调即是买 点——微盘股指数周报 20250420》 – 2025.04.21 《Meta LIama 4 开源，OpenAI 启动先 锋计划——AI 动态汇总 20250414》 - 2025.04.15 《融资盘被动爆仓导致大幅净流出， GRU 模型仍未配置成长——行业轮动周 报 2025 ...

2025年4月28日 [Table_Title] 美国持续释放关税缓和信号，股指整体反弹 ——股指期货周报 [table_main] 投资要点： 行情走势：上周沪深 300 指数收于 3786.99 点，较前值上升 0.39%；累计成交 10914 亿元，日均成交 2183 亿元，较前值下降 147 亿元。两市融资融券余额 为 17916 亿元。表现较好的前五名行业分别是综合金融(6.07%)、汽车(4.94%)、 通信(3.16%)、电力设备及新能源(3.07%)、综合(2.77%)；表现较差的前五名行 业分别是交通运输(-0.88%)、煤炭(-1.21%)、农林牧渔(-1.38%)、食品饮料(- 2.40%)、消费者服务(-3.70%)。 期现基差行情：IF、IH、IC、IM 当月合约基差分别为-12.19 点、-3.81 点、 -44.98 点、-54.50 点。前一周同期值分别为-6.82 点、-3.10 点、-5.81 点、 6.24 点。 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 宏 观 金 融 周 报 跨期价差行情：IF 合约次月-当月、当季-次季、次季-当季价差分别为-35.60 点 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Timing System Signal (Wind All A Index Long-term and Short-term Moving Averages) - **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses the distance between the 120-day long-term moving average and the 20-day short-term moving average of the Wind All A Index to identify the overall market environment and potential trend shifts[2][9]. - **Model Construction Process**: - Calculate the 20-day moving average (short-term) and the 120-day moving average (long-term) of the Wind All A Index. - Compute the relative distance between the two moving averages: $$ \text{Distance} = \frac{\text{20-day MA} - \text{120-day MA}}{\text{120-day MA}} $$ - A negative distance indicates the short-term average is below the long-term average, signaling a potential downtrend. Conversely, a positive distance suggests an uptrend[2][9]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively identifies the market's transition to a downtrend when the distance narrows and becomes negative, providing actionable insights for timing decisions[2][9]. 2. Model Name: Industry Allocation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model identifies medium-term industry allocation opportunities by focusing on sectors with turnaround potential or strong growth drivers[2][10]. - **Model Construction Process**: - Analyze industry-specific metrics and trends to identify sectors with "distressed reversal" characteristics or those benefiting from structural growth themes. - Recommended sectors include: - Healthcare (e.g., Hang Seng Medical) - Low-valued sectors like new energy and consumer-related industries - Technology sectors driven by domestic substitution, such as AI chips and information innovation (Xinchuang)[2][10]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a systematic approach to identifying sectors with medium-term growth potential, aligning with macroeconomic and structural trends[2][10]. 3. Model Name: TWO BETA Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model focuses on identifying high-growth sectors, particularly in technology, by leveraging beta factors[2][10]. - **Model Construction Process**: - Analyze beta coefficients of various sectors to identify those with higher sensitivity to market movements. - Emphasize sectors like technology, including AI chips and information innovation, which are expected to outperform due to domestic substitution trends[2][10]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively highlights high-growth sectors, particularly in technology, aligning with market trends and policy support[2][10]. 4. Model Name: Position Management Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model determines optimal equity allocation levels based on valuation and trend signals[3][10]. - **Model Construction Process**: - Use valuation metrics such as PE and PB ratios of the Wind All A Index: - PE is at the 50th percentile, indicating a moderate valuation level. - PB is at the 20th percentile, indicating a relatively low valuation level. - Combine valuation insights with trend signals (e.g., moving average distances) to recommend a 50% equity allocation for absolute return products[3][10]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a balanced approach to equity allocation, considering both valuation and trend factors[3][10]. --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Timing System Signal - **Distance between 20-day and 120-day moving averages**: -3.08% (indicating a narrowing gap and a potential downtrend)[2][9][13] - **Profitability Effect**: -1.7% (indicating negative short-term market sentiment)[2][10][13] 2. Position Management Model - **PE Ratio**: 50th percentile (moderate valuation level)[3][10] - **PB Ratio**: 20th percentile (relatively low valuation level)[3][10] - **Recommended Equity Allocation**: 50% for absolute return products[3][10] 3. Industry Allocation Model - **Recommended Sectors**: - Healthcare (e.g., Hang Seng Medical) - New energy and consumer-related industries - Technology sectors (e.g., AI chips, information innovation)[2][10][13] 4. TWO BETA Model - **Recommended Sectors**: - Technology sectors, including AI chips and information innovation, driven by domestic substitution trends[2][10][13]

证券研究报告：金融工程报告 发布时间：2025-04-14 研究所 分析师:肖承志 SAC 登记编号:S1340524090001 Email:xiaochengzhi@cnpsec.com 研究助理:李子凯 SAC 登记编号:S1340124100014 Email:lizikai@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《陆股通 Q1 增持汽车电子机械，减持 电力通信化工——陆股通 2025Q1 持仓 点评》 - 2025.04.13 《上证受政策影响但未跌破重要点位， ETF 大幅流入科创芯片等 TMT 方向—— 行 业 轮 动 周 报 20250406 》 – 2025.04.06 《"924"以来融资资金防守后均见到行 情低点，仍关注科技配置机会——行业 轮动周报 20250330》 - 2025.03.31 《 Gemini 2.5 Pro 发 布 即 屠 榜 ， DeepSeek V3 完成模型更新——AI 动态 汇总 20250331》 – 2025.03.31 《低波风格持续，反转占优——中邮因 子周报 20250330》 – 2025.03.31 《为什么说本轮调整空间不会太大？ ——微盘股指 ...

综合金融 2025 年 04 月 13 日 行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 金融资金面跟踪：量化周报（2025/04/07~2025/04/13） 推荐（维持） 周一市场下行对中性影响有限 | 华创证券研究所 | | | --- | --- | | 证券分析师：徐康 | 证券分析师：刘潇伟 | | 电话：021-20572556 | 邮箱：liuxiaowei@hcyjs.com | | 邮箱：xukang@hcyjs.com | 执业编号：S0360525020001 | | 执业编号：S0360518060005 | | 上周量化私募周超额提升明显。上周样本量化私募收益及超额如下：1）300 增强策 略周/月/年初以来平均收益分别为-1.1%/+0.1%/-0.5%，周/月/年初以来平均超额分别为 +0.3%/+0.8%/+2.3%；2）500 增强策略周/月/年初以来平均收益分别为-0.8%/+1.6%/+3.8%， 周/月/年初以来平均超额分别为+0.4%/+1.8%/+4.7%；3）A500 增强策略周/月/年初以来平 均收益分别为-1%/-0.1%/+4%，周/月/年初以来平均超额分别为+0.6 ...

二、市场情绪 今日收盘时有48只股票涨停，有19只股票跌停。昨日涨停股票今日收盘收益为 0.33%，昨日跌停股票今日收盘收益为-3.54%。今日封板率62%，较前日下降0%，连 板率12%，较前日下降14%。 报 告 摘 要 一、 市场表现 今日(20250402) 规模指数中中证1000指数表现较好，板块指数中北证50指数表现较 好，风格指数中沪深300价值指数表现较好。综合金融、纺织服装、通信、银行、轻 工制造行业表现较好，国防军工、有色金属、电力公用事业、钢铁、医药行业表现较 差。黄酒、珠宝、家纺、PEEK材料、液态金属等概念表现较好，黄金精选、航空发 动机、光刻机、中航系、油气改革等概念表现较差。 三、市场资金流向 截至 20250401 两融余额为19140亿元，其中融资余额19028亿元，融券余额112亿元。 两融余额占流通市值比重为2.4%，两融交易占市场成交额比重为8.8%。 四、折溢价 20250401当日ETF溢价较多的是物联网ETF招商，ETF折价较多的是科创生物医药 ETF。近半年以来大宗交易日均成交金额达到16亿元，20250401当日大宗交易成交金 额为9亿元，近半年以来平均折价率 ...

Company Overview - Green International Holdings Limited is an investment holding company primarily engaged in providing (i) healthcare and medical services, (ii) beauty and fitness services, and (iii) comprehensive financial services including lending, securities brokerage, and asset management [3] Stock Performance - As of March 31, the Hang Seng Index fell by 1.31%, closing at 23,119.58 points. Green International Holdings closed at HKD 0.5 per share, up by 11.11%, with a trading volume of 70,000 shares and a turnover of HKD 36,000, showing a volatility of 6.67% [1] - Over the past month, Green International Holdings has seen a cumulative increase of 12.5%, while year-to-date, it has risen by 11.11%, underperforming the Hang Seng Index which has increased by 16.78% [2] Financial Performance - For the fiscal year ending June 30, 2024, Green International Holdings reported total revenue of HKD 23.6576 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.23%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of HKD 1.3891 million, which is an improvement of 66.67% compared to the previous year. The gross margin stood at 54.14%, and the debt-to-asset ratio was 68.85% [2] Valuation Metrics - Currently, there are no institutional investment ratings for Green International Holdings. The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the healthcare equipment and services industry is -18.88 times, with a median of 2.45 times. Green International Holdings has a P/E ratio of -39.17 times, ranking 63rd in the industry [3]