通信行业点评 姚院士在浦江论坛对量子提出了怎样的期待？ 2025 年 09 月 23 日 ➢ 2025 年 9 月 21 日浦江创新论坛上，姚院士就量子计算+A 开展演讲，认 为两者可"相互赋能"。"将量子与 AI 这两项颠覆性技术结合，或许能推动人类 突破现有知识极限，实现系统能力的跃升。"在姚期智院士看来，二者的融合不是 简单叠加，而是相互赋能的"化学反应"。大会同时宣布成立上海量子人工智能联 合体、上海量子科技装备产业创新联盟，发布上海量子计算十大应用场景，标志 上海量子科技与产业发展迈入崭新发展阶段。 ➢ 我国 AI 量子：基础扎实潜力无限。大会上指出，当前我国在量子纠错、AI 赋能量子等领域紧跟国际前沿，最新研究进展在部分方向上已经具备了"并跑"， 甚至局部"领跑"的可能。中国科学院院士俞大鹏指出，中国在量子计算领域已 取得显著突破。在上海，复旦大学成功研制出中性原子量子计算系统，制定高效 并行量子计算指令集；开发 ai+量子调控方案，实现了大规模原子系统的自动校 准、优化，为量子计算增效提速；自研物镜的性能也已支撑万比特级中性原子量 子计算；近期在量子优化算法上又取得新突破，大幅提升 NP 难问题 ...

数据显示，包括微软、亚马逊和Meta在内的科技巨头将在下个十年初将AI年度支出提升至5000亿美元 以上。OpenAI和中国DeepSeek等公司新模型的发布进一步刺激了对AI服务的需求，推动整个行业加大 投资力度。 在AI公司竞相宣布数千亿美元数据中心投资计划的背后，一个更为严峻的问题正在浮现——如何产生 足够收入来覆盖这些巨额支出。 近日，全球知名咨询公司贝恩咨询警告称，人工智能行业正面临一个前所未有的收入缺口危机。该公司 最新发布的年度全球技术报告预测，到2030年AI公司将需要2万亿美元的年收入来支撑预期的计算需 求，但实际收入可能短缺8000亿美元。 这一巨大缺口源于AI服务变现能力远未跟上数据中心和相关基础设施的支出需求。以ChatGPT为代表的 AI服务虽然用户增长迅速，但盈利模式仍不明朗，而OpenAI等头部公司每年亏损数十亿美元。 贝恩全球技术实践主席David Crawford表示："如果当前的扩展规律持续，AI将日益拉紧全球供应 链。"该报告预测，全球AI算力需求到2030年可能激增至200吉瓦，其中美国占据一半份额。 这一预警进一步加剧了市场对AI行业估值和商业模式可持续性的质疑。尽管 ...

Group 1 - OpenAI and other AI companies are facing a significant revenue gap, with Bain predicting a shortfall of $800 billion by 2030, as they need to generate $2 trillion annually to support their infrastructure investments [1] - The demand for AI services is increasing, but the cost-saving effects and revenue generation capabilities from AI have not kept pace with the rising costs of data centers and energy [1] - Major tech companies like Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta are expected to increase their annual spending on AI to over $500 billion by 2030, driven by the launch of new models and increased market demand [2] Group 2 - The global demand for AI computing power is projected to reach 200 gigawatts (GW) by 2030, with the United States accounting for half of this demand [2] - Companies are expected to allocate up to 10% of their tech spending on building core AI capabilities, including autonomous AI agents, over the next 3 to 5 years [2] - Quantum computing is anticipated to create a market value of $250 billion across various industries, although its development will be gradual rather than breakthrough [2][3] Group 3 - Humanoid robots are attracting significant investment and are in the early stages of deployment, with their commercial success dependent on the maturity of the ecosystem [3] - Early adopters of robotic pilot projects are likely to gain a competitive advantage in the industry [3]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs raised the S&P 500 index target from 6600 to 6800 points, citing a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve and strong corporate earnings as key reasons [1][2] - Other investment banks also increased their S&P 500 targets, with Deutsche Bank predicting 7000 points by 2025 and Wells Fargo estimating 6650 points by year-end [1][2] - The strong performance of U.S. equities is attributed to the Fed's interest rate cuts, which are expected to continue in the coming months [3] Group 2 - Demand for AI has significantly boosted traditional storage companies, with Seagate and Western Digital seeing stock price increases of 156% and 137% respectively [4][5] - Analysts caution that the surge in these stocks may be overhyped, as they have surpassed Wall Street's average target prices, suggesting a potential for profit-taking [4][5] - The AI-driven demand for storage and memory solutions is expected to continue, but investors should remain cautious of market volatility and potential overvaluation [5] Group 3 - Morgan Stanley's report highlights the strong performance of the MSCI China Index, which has returned 48% over the past year, driven by structural improvements and stable corporate earnings [6][7] - The report emphasizes the recovery of return on equity (ROE) and increased investment in high-quality large-cap stocks, indicating a healthier market structure [6][7] - Core sectors such as internet, technology, and pharmaceuticals are expected to see continued earnings upgrades, supporting a positive outlook for the Chinese stock market [6][7] Group 4 - The UK and US have signed a "Technology Prosperity Agreement" to advance quantum technology, with significant investments aimed at developing AI and quantum computing [8][9] - NVIDIA has made substantial investments in quantum computing companies, reflecting a growing interest in this sector [8][9] - The rise of quantum computing stocks is driven by increasing government and corporate investments, as well as the demand for advanced computing capabilities [9][10]

Group 1: Core Insights - The A-share IPO market is experiencing new changes driven by both policy and market dynamics, with a notable increase in unicorn companies in sectors like commercial aerospace and quantum computing initiating their IPO processes [1][2][3] - As of September 22, 185 companies have had their IPO applications accepted this year, a significant increase from 76 in the entirety of 2024, indicating a robust recovery in the IPO acceptance rate [4][5] - The number of new companies listed on the A-share market has remained stable compared to the same period last year, with 71 companies having gone public so far this year, slightly up from 69 last year [6] Group 2: Sector Focus - The commercial aerospace sector is seeing multiple unicorn companies, such as Weina Starry and Blue Arrow Aerospace, starting their IPO guidance processes, highlighting a competitive race for the "first stock" in this field [2] - In the quantum computing industry, companies like Benyuan Quantum are also moving towards IPOs, with a focus on commercializing quantum computing technologies [3] - Hard technology sectors are expected to remain a focal point for the market, with companies possessing core technologies and clear business models likely to gain market recognition [7] Group 3: Market Trends - The trend of "withdrawal waves" in the IPO market has decreased, with only 89 companies voluntarily withdrawing their applications this year, a drop of over 70% compared to the previous year [5] - The current IPO market is characterized by an increase in acceptance and a decrease in terminations, attributed to collaborative efforts among policy, market, and enterprises [5] - The regulatory body has emphasized maintaining strict entry standards for IPOs, ensuring that there will not be a large-scale expansion in the number of listings [6]

Group 1 - Quantum Computing (QUBT.US) experienced a significant drop of over 14% on Monday after a nearly 27% surge on the previous Friday, currently trading at $19.92 [1] - The company announced on Sunday that it has agreed to sell 26.9 million shares of common stock to institutional investors at market price, expecting total proceeds of $500 million [1] - The net proceeds from this offering will be used to fund commercialization activities, strategic acquisitions, personnel expansion, working capital, and general corporate purposes, which may lead to shareholder dilution [1]

Core Viewpoint - Quantum Computing (QUBT.US) experienced a significant drop of over 14% on Monday after a nearly 27% surge on the previous Friday, currently trading at $19.92 [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Stock Performance** - The company's stock fell more than 14% on Monday following a substantial increase of nearly 27% on the preceding Friday [1] - **Capital Raise** - Quantum Computing announced on Sunday that it has agreed to sell 26.9 million shares of common stock to institutional investors at market price, expecting total proceeds of $500 million [1] - **Use of Proceeds** - The net proceeds from the share sale will be utilized to fund commercialization activities, strategic acquisitions, personnel expansion, working capital, and general corporate purposes [1] - **Shareholder Impact** - This capital raise may lead to dilution of existing shareholders' equity [1]

IPO Pipeline Overview - As of September 21, there are 279 companies in the IPO pipeline, with 21 on the Shanghai Main Board, 36 on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, 25 on the Shenzhen Main Board, 27 on the Growth Enterprise Market, and 170 on the Beijing Stock Exchange [1][2]. Newly Listed Companies - Hebei Shichang Automotive Parts Co., Ltd. was listed between September 15 and September 21, closing at 40.50 yuan per share, representing a 271.56% increase, with a trading volume of 641 million yuan and a turnover rate of 87.48% [3]. New Counseling Records - Eight new companies were added to the counseling records from September 15 to September 21, including Beijing Weina Star Technology Co., Ltd. and others, focusing on various sectors such as satellite technology, quantum computing, and environmental equipment [4][5]. Companies Undergoing Review - Yuan Chuang Technology Co., Ltd. and Suzhou New Guangyi Electronics Co., Ltd. successfully passed the review process, while Xiamen Youxun Chip Co., Ltd. had its review results postponed [8][9]. Registration Approval - Three companies received registration approval from September 15 to September 21, including Zhongcheng Zhixin Engineering Consulting Group Co., Ltd., which provides comprehensive consulting services, and Nabaichuan New Energy Co., Ltd., focusing on thermal management for electric vehicle batteries [10]. Terminated Reviews - Four companies, including Hengyang Jinzelite Special Alloy Co., Ltd. and others, withdrew their IPO applications during the same period [11][12][13].

核电行业 - The nuclear power sector has shown significant price increases, with upstream companies like CCJ rising by 12%, midstream LEU by 40%, and downstream OKLO by 72% [3] - The U.S. Department of Energy announced the "Speed to Power" initiative, which supports fossil fuels while indirectly favoring nuclear power as a reliable energy source [3] - A recent agreement between Trump and the UK focuses on collaboration in nuclear power, AI data centers, and nuclear regulation, indicating a strong geopolitical push towards nuclear energy [3] 宏观经济变化 - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting did not alter expectations significantly, maintaining a balance between dovish and hawkish views, with a split of 9:8 among members [4] - Market reactions to the Fed's decisions indicate short-term liquidity easing but uncertainty in long-term economic prospects, suggesting volatility ahead for risk assets [4] 量子计算行业 - Quantum computing stocks have seen substantial gains, with Qbts up 60% and Iqnq up 31%, reflecting the sector's potential [8] - Predictions suggest that quantum computing may reach maturity in about 20 years, with significant breakthroughs expected in the near future [8] 加密货币市场 - Ethereum's staking queue has a wait time of 5 days and 8 hours, with exit pressures affecting current prices [9] - The staking yield has decreased from 3.5% to approximately 2.5%, while the staking ratio has increased from 28% to 31% since the beginning of the year [9] 投资组合策略 - The annual investment strategy focuses on a combination of gold, Google, and uranium, constituting about 70% of the portfolio, while crypto, nuclear downstream, quantum computing, and small-cap growth stocks serve as tactical plays [14] - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining a disciplined research approach to navigate the diverse market landscape effectively [14]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that quantum artificial intelligence is in its initial stage but holds significant potential for development [1] - AI can empower quantum computing, particularly in overcoming the major bottleneck of quantum error correction [1] - Google's quantum chip achieved a quantum error correction threshold below 1% using 105 qubits, showcasing the integration of AI in quantum technology [1] Group 2 - Chinese researchers, including professors from Tsinghua University and Zhejiang University, have made significant advancements in quantum error correction, indicating that China is at a world-class level in this field [2] - The need for post-quantum cryptography arises due to the vulnerability of current encryption methods like RSA to quantum algorithms, with the LWE algorithm emerging as a promising candidate [2] Group 3 - China possesses a solid foundation in quantum artificial intelligence but requires strategic planning and talent cultivation for future advancements [3] - The country is currently leading in AI applications but lacks sufficient talent for original innovation, which is crucial for becoming a technological powerhouse [3] - The quantum industry in China is still in its infancy, but there is potential for development without waiting for quantum computers to be fully operational [3]