Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the dramatic impact of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's remarks at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference, which led to a significant rally in the U.S. stock market, with the Dow Jones reaching a historical high [1] - The article suggests that the market reaction is not merely a response to monetary policy changes but reflects a deeper geopolitical struggle regarding expectations, confidence, and strategic dominance among major powers [1]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index night futures (August) closed at 25,711 points, down 153 points or 0.592%, with a discount of 119 points [1] - The total number of open contracts was 102,412, a decrease of 38,532 contracts [1] - The net number of open contracts reported was 36,716 contracts, a decrease of 10,147 contracts [1]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index opened with a gain of 1.06% [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 1.49% [1] - NIO saw a significant rise of over 14% [1] Group 2 - Dongfeng Motor Group resumed trading and surged by 69.2% upon opening [1]

Group 1 - The divergence in performance between gold and crude oil is noteworthy, with gold being viewed as a key store of value and crude oil as a critical global commodity [1] - WTI crude oil prices are expected to see the largest annual decline since 2020, while gold prices are on track for a third consecutive year of gains, with gold outperforming WTI crude oil by 39.6% year-to-date as of August 21 [1] - The WTI crude oil/gold price ratio is at a historical low of 0.0185, indicating potential economic growth when the ratio rises, and economic weakness or geopolitical risks when it falls [1] Group 2 - The stock market appears to favor cheap energy, which is essential for economic operations, as indicated by the WTI crude oil/gold ratio frequently dropping below 0.037 since 2015 [2] - Historical data shows that when the WTI crude oil/gold ratio falls below 0.037, the S&P 500 index has a stable overall win rate with a median return exceeding 20% one year later [2] Group 3 - The S&P 500 index has risen by 8.7% year-to-date, with the WTI crude oil/gold ratio exceeding 0.137 only a few times in the past 40 years, correlating with poor S&P 500 returns during those periods [3] - A key factor for maintaining strong economic performance is the availability of affordable and low-cost energy, which has historically led to better stock market performance when energy costs are low [3]

Group 1 - The global capital markets are experiencing a collective upward trend, with the A-share market particularly notable as the Shanghai Composite Index breaks a ten-year high, sparking discussions about a potential bull market return [1] - The US stock indices reached historical highs in August, while stock markets in Japan, the UK, and Italy also hit new peaks, with Germany and France nearing historical highs [1] - Despite the World Bank raising global economic growth forecasts for the next two years, the fundamental conditions of most economies have not fundamentally changed [2] Group 2 - The divergence between capital markets and economic fundamentals has prompted a reevaluation of driving factors, with monetary easing policies identified as a significant catalyst for the current market trend [3] - In China, the broad money supply (M2) is projected to exceed 300 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, with expectations of further increases in subsequent months [3] - In the US, M2 has rebounded to the $22 trillion range following a period of tightening, with expectations for continued expansion due to anticipated interest rate cuts [4] Group 3 - There are significant differences in the statistical definitions of M2 between China and the US, which complicates direct comparisons, but the trend of synchronized monetary supply expansion is evident [6] - Global monetary easing is not limited to the US and China, as other economies like the EU, UK, Switzerland, and Australia are also implementing loose monetary policies, providing crucial support for capital markets [6] Group 4 - The current market rally, referred to as a "water buffalo" market driven by liquidity, does not equate to irrational exuberance, but rather reflects a necessary support mechanism during economic transitions [8] - The effectiveness of monetary policy in stabilizing the macroeconomy will determine whether the market can transition from a "water buffalo" to a "slow bull" market [8] - The diminishing marginal utility of liquidity easing suggests that sustainable capital market performance will require genuine improvements in the fundamentals of the real economy [10]

| 11 201 2017 11:2 | | --- | | and secure a comprehens and secure and secure and a province and | | | | 乖 亦安期货 | | --- | 大类资产早报 研究中心宏观团队 2025/08/21 | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要经济体10年期国债收益率 | | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | 2025/08/20 | 4.292 | 4.671 | 3.413 | 2.716 | 3.524 | 3.295 | 0.271 | 3.369 | | 最新变化 | -0.015 | -0.068 | -0.022 | -0.033 | -0.030 | -0.026 | -0.001 | -0.032 | | 一周变化 | 0.057 | 0.083 | 0.079 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent introduction of taxes on bond interest and overseas investment income signals a shift in the government's approach to asset investment profits, indicating an expectation of increased returns from capital markets in the future [1][11]. Group 1: Taxation Changes - The government has announced the taxation of interest from national and local bonds, ending the era of tax exemption on bond interest [1]. - There are rumors of a 20% personal income tax on profits from overseas stock investments, indicating a broader trend of taxing asset investment profits [1]. - The anticipated revenue from bond interest taxation could reach 50 billion annually, suggesting a significant increase in the scale of national debt [2]. Group 2: National Debt and Economic Signals - The potential revenue from bond interest tax implies that the national debt could reach approximately 50 trillion, three times the current scale, which may lead to more aggressive monetary stimulus [2]. - The introduction of asset profit taxation indicates that the economy is transitioning into a new industrialization cycle, which is crucial for understanding investment and asset pricing [2][3]. Group 3: Industrialization Cycle - The industrialization cycle is divided into four stages: initial accumulation, growth, maturity, and post-industrialization [4][5]. - The current phase is characterized by a shift from industrial growth to maturity, where the financing ratio between industrial and financial sectors becomes more balanced [8]. - In the maturity phase, a developed financial market is essential for optimizing investments and providing individuals with opportunities for wealth accumulation [9][10]. Group 4: Future Investment Landscape - As the financial market develops, personal income from capital investments is expected to rise, potentially equating to wage income [11]. - The recent surge in the stock market may not be an isolated event but could become a regular occurrence as the economy evolves [11]. - Investors are encouraged to adapt to the changing landscape of industrialization and seek opportunities in the capital market while managing risks [11].

Group 1: Gold Market - Last week, spot gold fell by 1.8%, marking the largest weekly decline since the end of June, closing at $3,335.90 [1] - Today, during European trading hours, gold surged over $20, currently hovering around $3,348 [1] - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices are trading within a sideways channel, with recent RSI moving towards oversold conditions, suggesting potential further declines towards $3,272 or even $3,209 in the medium to long term [16] Group 2: U.S. Stock Market - Last week, the Dow Jones increased by 1.74%, the S&P 500 rose by 0.94%, and the Nasdaq gained 0.81%, with both the Dow and S&P 500 reaching intraday all-time highs [2] - The market is currently focused on the upcoming speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which is expected to address future monetary policy and the Fed's independence [4] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in September exceeds 92%, with at least one more cut anticipated within the year [6] - Despite recent highs in U.S. stock indices, risks are accumulating, with the S&P 500's year-to-date performance showing signs of weakening and historical cumulative gains reaching high percentiles [6] Group 3: U.S.-India Trade Relations - The U.S. trade delegation unexpectedly canceled its visit to India, casting a shadow over tariff negotiations [4] - President Trump signed an executive order imposing an additional 25% tariff on Indian imports, raising the overall tariff rate to 50% [4] - Concerns are growing regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation, with a recent U.S. inflation indicator showing the fastest increase in three years [4] Group 4: International Relations - Significant progress has been reported in U.S.-Russia discussions regarding Ukraine, with potential security guarantees being offered [8] - The upcoming meeting involving leaders from Germany, France, the UK, Italy, Finland, NATO, and the EU indicates a strong European interest in the negotiations [8][12] - The situation is described as a "Himalayan banquet," with differing interests between the U.S. and European leaders regarding the terms of peace [12] Group 5: Middle East Tensions - The Houthi forces launched a hypersonic missile at Israel's Ben Gurion Airport in response to ongoing military actions in Gaza and Yemen [13] - Israeli military reported intercepting a missile from Yemen, highlighting the escalating tensions in the region [13]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - No explicit core viewpoints are presented in the provided content. The report mainly offers data on global asset market performance, including bond yields, exchange - rates, stock indices, and futures trading data. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **10 - year Treasury Yields of Major Economies**: On August 15, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury yields of the US, UK, France, etc. were 4.319%, 4.696%, 3.467% respectively. The latest changes, weekly changes, monthly changes, and annual changes varied among different countries. For example, the US had a latest change of 0.033, a weekly change of 0.035, a monthly change of - 0.099, and an annual change of 0.375 [3]. - **2 - year Treasury Yields of Major Economies**: The 2 - year Treasury yields of the US, UK, Germany, etc. on August 15, 2025, were 3.927%, 1.970%, 0.822% respectively. Similar to the 10 - year yields, the changes in different time - frames differed across countries [3]. - **Exchange Rates of the US Dollar Against Major Emerging Economies' Currencies**: On August 15, 2025, the exchange rates against South Africa's ZAR, Brazil, Russia, etc. were presented, along with their latest, weekly, monthly, and annual changes. For instance, against South Africa's ZAR, the latest change was - 0.29%, the weekly change was - 0.61%, the monthly change was - 4.12%, and the annual change was not provided in the context [3]. - **Stock Indices of Major Economies**: Stock indices such as the Dow Jones, S&P 500, France CAC, etc. had their closing prices on August 15, 2025, and their latest, weekly, monthly, and annual changes. For example, the Dow Jones closed at 6449.800, with a latest change of - 0.29%, a weekly change of 0.94%, a monthly change of 2.43%, and an annual change of 24.05% [3]. - **Credit Bond Indices**: The indices of emerging economies' investment - grade and high - yield credit bonds, US investment - grade and high - yield credit bonds, and euro - zone investment - grade and high - yield credit bonds had their latest, weekly, monthly, and annual changes. For example, the emerging economies' investment - grade credit bond index had a latest change of - 0.10%, a weekly change of 0.19%, a monthly change of 1.48%, and an annual change of 5.08% [3][4]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: The closing prices and percentage changes of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 were provided. For example, the A - share closed at 3696.77 with a 0.83% increase [5]. - **Valuation**: The PE (TTM) and their环比 changes of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, S&P 500, and Germany DAX were presented. For example, the PE (TTM) of CSI 300 was 13.46 with a 0.04环比 change [5]. - **Risk Premium**: The risk premiums (1/PE - 10 - year interest rate) and their环比 changes of S&P 500 and Germany DAX were given. For example, the risk premium of S&P 500 was - 0.66 with a - 0.02环比 change [5]. - **Fund Flow**: The latest values and 5 - day average values of fund flows in A - shares, the main board, small and medium - sized enterprise board, ChiNext, and CSI 300 were provided. For example, the latest fund flow in A - shares was 931.56, and the 5 - day average was - 217.38 [5]. - **Trading Volume**: The latest trading volumes and环比 changes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50, small and medium - sized board, and ChiNext were presented. For example, the latest trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 22446.12 with a - 345.97环比 change [5]. - **Main Contract Basis and Spread**: The basis and spread of IF, IH, and IC were provided. For example, the basis of IF was 7.05 with a 0.17% spread [5]. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - The closing prices and percentage changes of T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 were presented. For example, T00 closed at 108.295 with a - 0.10% change [6]. - The money market interest rates (R001, R007, SHIBOR - 3M) and their daily changes (BP) were provided. For example, R001 was 1.4391% with a - 3.00 BP daily change [6].

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