1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the reports. 2. Core View - The supply of domestic lithium carbonate in July 2025 is expected to be loose, and the domestic social inventory of lithium carbonate has increased month - on - month. The production and inventory of various lithium - related products and other chemical products have different trends, and it is recommended to pay attention to the support level around 58,000 - 62,000 and the pressure level around 66,000 - 70,000 [1][3][5] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Lithium Carbonate Futures Market - **Price**: On July 4, 2025, the closing prices of near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures all decreased compared to the previous day, with decreases of 600, 660, 620, and 620 yuan/ton respectively. The closing price of the active contract decreased by 800 yuan/ton [1] - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume was 347,729 lots, a decrease of 73,238 lots from the previous day; the open interest was 325,288 lots, a decrease of 8,769 lots from the previous day [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory was 21,036 tons, a decrease of 1,844 tons from the previous day [1] - **Spreads and Basis**: The spread between near - month and continuous - one contracts increased by 60 yuan/ton; the spread between continuous - one and continuous - two contracts decreased by 40 yuan/ton; the spread between continuous - two and continuous - three contracts remained unchanged. The basis increased by 1,000 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Lithium Ore and Related Product Prices - **Lithium Ore**: The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 653 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1 US dollar/ton from the previous day; the average prices of various types of lithium mica also increased to varying degrees [1] - **Lithium Compounds**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 200 yuan/ton; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 200 yuan/ton; the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide decreased by 50 yuan/ton; the average price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide decreased by 50 yuan/ton [1] - **Other Battery Materials**: The prices of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, cobalt acid lithium, and other materials also had different changes [1] 3.3 Company News - **Codal Mining**: It signed a purchase agreement for the expansion of the DMS processing plant's spodumene concentrate in the Bougouni lithium project with Hainan Mining. The DMS processing plant has produced over 1,000 tons of spodumene concentrate and is working on obtaining export licenses. The first - phase project is expected to produce 100,000 - 120,000 tons of spodumene concentrate annually [2] - **Anhui Anwa New Energy**: Its self - developed world's first 3.0 - level new solid - state battery production line's first batch of engineering samples was successfully launched. The first - generation product has an energy density of over 300Wh/kg, and the company plans to launch the third - generation all - solid - state battery with an energy density exceeding 500Wh/kg in 2027 [2] - **Ganfeng Lithium**: Its Mali Gooldariness lithium project's first - phase with an annual capacity of 0.6 million tons of fine ore has been put into production [3] - **Tianqi Lithium**: Its 35,000 - ton wet - process project in Jianglin City may be put into production in June 2026, and the total capacity will reach 215,000 tons per year [3] 3.4 Supply and Demand Situation - **Supply**: The domestic lithium carbonate production in July may increase month - on - month, but the import volume has decreased. The production of lithium hydroxide may decrease in October. The production of lithium iron phosphate and other products may increase in July [3][5] - **Demand**: The demand for lithium salts from downstream cathode material factories is mainly based on rigid procurement. The production and sales of new energy vehicles in July may increase month - on - month [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Information - The report focuses on lithium carbonate with a monthly review cycle, written on July 1, 2025 [1] 2. Market Review - In June, affected by supply - demand changes and relevant stimulus policies, the futures price of lithium carbonate first declined and then rose, increasing by 2420 yuan/ton (4.04%) for the whole month. The highest price of the main contract 2509 was 63600 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 58400 yuan/ton. As of June 30, the average spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 61300 yuan/ton, the average spot price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 59700 yuan/ton, the futures closed at 62260 yuan/ton, and the basis widened to 960 yuan/ton. The futures price fluctuated frequently, with a downward trend in the first ten - day period due to pessimistic market expectations and a certain rebound in the last ten - day period affected by some news and capital games, but still in a weak pattern [3] 3. Supply - Demand Fundamentals 3.1 Domestic Production - In June, domestic lithium carbonate production remained at a relatively high level. Some mica - based lithium extraction enterprises had slightly fluctuating production due to raw material supply and cost issues, while salt - lake and spodumene - based lithium extraction enterprises maintained stable production. In Jiangxi, some mica - based lithium extraction enterprises reduced production by about 5 - 8% month - on - month due to high lithium mica concentrate prices. In Qinghai salt - lake areas, production increased by about 3 - 5% month - on - month due to the summer production peak. According to SMM data, the total domestic lithium carbonate production in June was about 35,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of about 2% [4] 3.2 Import Situation - In June, the import volume of lithium carbonate declined. Customs data showed that the total import volume was about 19,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.3%, and the average import price was about 12,309 US dollars/ton. Among them, about 15,700 tons were imported from Chile and about 3400 tons from Argentina. The decrease in imports alleviated the oversupply situation to some extent, but the overall supply was still sufficient [4] 3.3 Power Battery Field - In June, the production and sales data of the new energy vehicle market were good, and the growth rate remained at a certain level [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The lithium ore, lithium salt, and battery cell markets are under significant inventory pressure, and the de - stocking process is slow. The medium - to - long - term supply - demand imbalance has not been substantially alleviated [3]. - There are two short - term logics in the market. In the price - downward cycle, there is a negative feedback loop of "lithium salt price decline - ore price loosening - lithium salt price decline again". When the futures rebound, there is a step - by - step upward chain of "futures price increase - capacity release - increased ore consumption - ore price hike", but it will eventually return to the oversupply fundamentals and the price will fall again [3]. - The futures market in the second half of the year is expected to be divided into two phases: the futures price will rise in a volatile manner at the beginning of the third quarter due to improved macro - sentiment, supply disruptions, and better - than - expected demand in the off - season; the futures price will decline in a volatile manner in the fourth quarter due to the end of technical reforms and increased production [3]. - Strategy recommendations: LC09 - 11 positive spread arbitrage; short LC2511 contracts at high prices; sell call options at high prices [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Futures Price and Strategy - **Futures Price Forecast**: The price of the lithium carbonate main contract is expected to fluctuate between 59,000 - 62,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.5% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 23.3% [2]. - **Enterprise Risk Management Strategy**: - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high product inventory and risk of impairment, 70% of the inventory can be hedged by short - selling LC2509 lithium carbonate futures, 30% by selling call options, and buying out - of - the - money put options [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with future procurement plans, they can buy long - term lithium carbonate contracts according to the procurement plan, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options to lock in procurement costs [2]. Market Analysis - **Lithium Market Core Contradiction**: The lithium market is facing inventory pressure, slow de - stocking, and a medium - to - long - term supply - demand imbalance. There are two short - term price - movement logics [3]. - **Lithium Market利多因素**: Improved macro - sentiment, supply - side disruptions, and the market trading of the contradiction between high open interest and low warehouse receipts will boost the futures market price [6]. - **Lithium Market利空因素**: High future lithium ore production expectations, inventory pressure on ore prices, continuous inventory accumulation of lithium ore and lithium salt, and postponed capacity clearance due to technological upgrades [5][7]. Market Data - **Futures Market Data**: - The closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract is 64,080 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan or 0.19% from the previous day; the trading volume is 420,967 lots, down 119,468 lots or 22.11%; the open interest is 334,057 lots, up 8,483 lots or 2.61% [9]. - The closing price of the LC2511 contract is 63,720 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan or 0.25%; the trading volume is 36,817 lots, down 10,160 lots or 21.63%; the open interest is 98,399 lots, up 4,871 lots or 5.21% [9]. - **Lithium Ore Market Data**: The prices of various types of lithium ore, such as lithium mica, lithium spodumene, and amblygonite, have increased to varying degrees. For example, the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2 - 2.5%) is 1,315 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan or 3.14% [18]. - **Lithium Salt Market Data**: The prices of industrial - grade and battery - grade lithium carbonate have increased, while the prices of industrial - grade and battery - grade lithium hydroxide have decreased slightly. For example, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 60,500 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan or 0.75% [21]. - **Lithium Industry Chain Spread Data**: The spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remains unchanged; the spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate has decreased; the spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide CIF in Japan, South Korea and the domestic market has increased [23]. - **Lithium Carbonate Warehouse Receipt Data**: The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts is 22,880, a decrease of 300 from the previous day [36]. Downstream Market Data - The prices of downstream products such as lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganese iron phosphate, ternary materials, and electrolyte have changed to varying degrees. For example, the price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 30,660 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan or 0.36% [33].

碳酸锂周报 盘面脱实向虚 锂价或将回调 核心观点及策略 2024 年 6 月 30 日 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jygh.com. cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：20021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 9 ⚫ 基本面：资源端暂无扰动，港口矿库存虽有去化，但整体 维持高位。盘面价格上涨提振现货商积极出货，但下游接 货意愿不强，材料厂刚需采买，现货资源充裕，市场交投 相对平稳。储能市场热度延续，动力终端消费尚可，但有 部分车企计划缩减排产。 ⚫ 成本方面：报告期内，受盘面价格上涨提振，锂矿价格 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.06.27」 碳酸锂市场周报 盘面反弹需求仍弱，碳酸锂或仍有压力 期货从业资格号 F03123381 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0019878 助理研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 研究员:王福辉 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：碳酸锂主力合约周线强势反弹。截止收盘，周线涨跌幅+7.47%，振幅8.39%。主力合约报价63300元/吨。 后市展望：宏观方面，国家发改委举行新闻发布会介绍，将在7月下达今年第三批消费品以旧换新资金。随着存量政 策加快落地见效，新的储备政策陆续出台实施，有信心、有能力把外部冲击的不确定性和不利影响降到最低，推动经 济持续健康发展。碳酸锂基本面原料端，锂矿持货商延续挺价情绪，加之现货价格近期上涨，拉动锂矿价格小幅上行。 供给端，市场整体碳酸锂供给量仍相对偏多，库存持续累积已突破前期高点，此外由于近期期价上涨，带动现货价格 上行以及部分持货方参与套保锁定利润，故冶炼厂生产情绪仍较好。进口方面，智利发运量级有所下降，预计到港后 国内 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Ganfeng Lithium is facing challenges in 2024 due to declining lithium prices, but the company is maintaining stable operations and controlling capital expenditures while achieving record production levels [1] - Ganfeng Lithium has established a full-chain layout in the solid-state battery sector and has applied for multiple patents [1] - The company plans to slow down its capital expenditure pace while continuing to promote key project investments and explore innovative financing methods such as equity investments [1] Group 2 - Ganfeng Lithium is optimizing its debt structure, accelerating asset revitalization, enhancing operating cash flow, and implementing prudent financial planning to address funding pressures [1] - Lithium prices are showing signs of bottoming out, and if current prices persist, there may be a supply-side clearing with reduced new capacity [1] - With the release of multiple projects' capacities, it is expected that the self-sufficiency rate will exceed 50% by 2025 [1] Group 3 - In the solid-state battery business, Ganfeng Lithium has achieved a breakthrough with a 400Wh/kg battery cycle life exceeding 800 times, and small-scale production of 500Wh/kg products has commenced [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Supply side: This week, China's lithium carbonate production increased by 335 tons week - on - week to 18,500 tons. Due to the reduction in lithium ore costs, subcontractors are gradually resuming work, and there is an expected increase in non - integrated supply in June. In May, the volume of lithium carbonate exported from Chile to China was 9,700 tons, a significant month - on - month decrease of 38%. This week, China's social inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 1,352 tons week - on - week to 134,900 tons. The inventories in smelters, downstream, and other sectors were 58,600 tons, 40,400 tons, and 35,900 tons respectively. There was a slight inventory build - up in smelters and other sectors, and the overall inventory remains at a high level. In the medium - to - long - term, the pressure of oversupply of lithium carbonate in the next two years is still significant [7]. - Demand side: According to research, downstream demand may increase slightly month - on - month in June, and the industry is gradually entering the off - season. The production schedule in the power sector has declined, and there is a certain behavior of rushing to export in energy - storage cells. The terminal market maintains a relatively fast growth rate. From June 1st to 15th, the retail sales of the national new - energy passenger vehicle market reached 402,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 38% [7]. - Cost side: This week, the price of spodumene concentrate remained basically flat week - on - week, while the price of lepidolite concentrate decreased by 1.2% week - on - week. Overseas mines have a strong sentiment to hold prices, but downstream lithium salt factories have low willingness to purchase due to their pessimistic expectations for future prices [7]. - Strategy: Demand is gradually entering the off - season, while supply remains relatively high. Near the end of the second quarter, both upstream and downstream have certain inventory management needs. High inventory exerts a certain downward pressure on lithium prices, but further price drops are likely to trigger supply disruptions. It is expected that lithium prices will fluctuate weakly. In the short term, it is not advisable to chase short positions. In the medium term, maintain the idea of shorting on rallies and pay attention to the trends at the mine end [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply Side - 5 - month lithium spodumene import volume decreased slightly month - on - month: From January to May, China's lithium spodumene import volume was 2.92 million tons. In May, China's lithium spodumene import volume was 605,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.9%. Among them, in May, 371,000 tons were imported from Australia, a month - on - month increase of 24.1%; 52,500 tons were imported from South Africa, a month - on - month increase of 29.9%; and 97,000 tons were imported from Zimbabwe, a month - on - month decrease of 8.2% [11]. - The decline of lithium concentrate has slowed down: This week, the price of spodumene concentrate remained basically flat week - on - week, and the price of lepidolite concentrate decreased by 1.2% week - on - week. Overseas mines on the spodumene side have a strong sentiment to hold prices, with the SC6 quotation remaining above $630 per ton. Downstream lithium salt factories have low willingness to purchase due to their pessimistic expectations for future prices [14]. - China's lithium carbonate production may increase slightly month - on - month in June: In May, SMM's total lithium carbonate production decreased by 2% month - on - month and increased by 15% year - on - year. By raw material, the production of lithium carbonate from spodumene and recycling decreased by 4% and 13% month - on - month respectively, while the production of lithium carbonate from lepidolite and salt lakes increased by 2% and 3% month - on - month respectively. According to research, the profitability of subcontractors has improved, and the production of the salt - lake side has increased with the warming of the weather. It is expected that China's lithium carbonate production will increase slightly month - on - month in June [18]. - Lithium carbonate import volume: From January to April, China's lithium carbonate import volume was 78,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.8%. Among them, 53,200 tons were imported from Chile, a year - on - year increase of 9.8%, and 22,600 tons were imported from Argentina, a year - on - year increase of 80.7%. According to Chilean customs, the volume of lithium carbonate exported from Chile to China in May was 9,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 38%. It is expected that this part of lithium carbonate will arrive in China from late June to July [21]. - Spot price remained basically flat week - on - week: This week, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 60,400 yuan per ton, remaining basically flat week - on - week. Market transactions were relatively dull. Lithium salt factories were reluctant to sell at low prices, but downstream buyers mostly adopted a wait - and - see attitude and mainly made purchases based on rigid demand. This week, the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 58,800 yuan per ton, remaining basically flat week - on - week [22]. Demand Side - The global new - energy vehicle market started well: The new - energy vehicle industry accounts for about 62% of the global lithium carbonate demand. In Q1 2025, global electric vehicle sales reached 4.1 million units, a year - on - year increase of 29%. Among them, European sales in Q1 were 900,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 22%, North American sales were 500,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 16%, and Chinese sales were 2.4 million units, a year - on - year increase of 36%. The Chinese and European markets had strong growth, while the growth rate in the US declined due to political factors [27]. - Power battery production maintained a high growth rate: In May, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 123.5 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 4.4% and a year - on - year increase of 47.9%. From January to May, the cumulative production of power and other batteries in China was 568.1 GWh, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 62.6%. In May, the sales of power and other batteries in China were 123.6 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 4.7% and a year - on - year increase of 58.1%. Among them, the sales of power batteries were 87.5 GWh, accounting for 70.8% of the total sales, a month - on - month increase of 1.0% and a year - on - year increase of 55% [37]. - China's mobile phone shipments increased slightly year - on - year: In the first quarter of 2025, China's smartphone market shipments were 71.6 million units, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%. From January to December 2024, the production of electronic computer complete machines in China's first quarter was 85.322 million units, a year - on - year increase of 9.6%, with two consecutive quarters of positive growth. Behind this data is the upgrading of the entire industrial chain driven by technologies such as cloud computing and artificial intelligence [42]. - May energy - storage installation maintained a high growth rate: According to incomplete statistics from CNESA DataLink, the installed capacity of newly commissioned new - type energy - storage projects in China in May this year totaled 6.32 GW/15.85 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 193%/228%. The "531" rush to install contributed a certain increment. Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Further Promoting the Development of New - Type Energy Storage", clarifying that "new - energy projects shall not be required to be equipped with energy storage compulsorily". After the cancellation of compulsory energy - storage installation, the proportion of energy - storage installation will decrease, which may affect the demand for lithium iron phosphate by about 3% [47]. - June downstream production schedule increased slightly month - on - month: This week, the theoretical production profit of ternary material enterprises was 3,630 yuan per ton, an increase of 200 yuan per ton compared with last week. The profit of ternary material enterprises increased slightly month - on - month, but the overall profitability was not optimistic. According to research, downstream demand may increase slightly month - on - month in June. The production schedule in the power sector declined, and there was a certain behavior of rushing to export in energy - storage cells [53]. Other Indicators - Non - integrated lithium salt factories had cost inversion: Recently, as the price of lithium concentrate stabilized, the production cost of lithium salt factories increased slightly. The theoretical production cost of manufacturers processing with purchased spodumene was 70,169 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 74 yuan per ton. At the current lithium price, manufacturers processing with purchased spodumene have fallen into losses. The theoretical production profit of manufacturers processing with purchased spodumene was - 9,869 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 426 yuan per ton [50]. - This week, the basis widened: This week, the basis of lithium carbonate was 1,500, with the spot price higher than the futures price. The closing price of the main futures contract of lithium carbonate this week was 589,020 yuan per ton, and the basis of the contract widened. The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained flat month - on - month, with a price difference of 1,600 yuan per ton [56]. - The price difference between contracts widened: This week, the term structure of lithium carbonate contracts was a horizontal structure, and the price difference between the first - nearby contract and the nearby contract was negative. The price difference between the first - nearby contract and the nearby contract was - 460, a decrease of 420 compared with last week, and the price differences between different contracts widened [59].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The report tracks the fundamentals of lithium carbonate, including data on futures contracts, spot prices, and raw materials. It also mentions macro and industry news, such as price changes of battery - grade lithium carbonate and corporate announcements [1][2]. - The trend strength of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Contracts**: For the 2507 contract, the closing price was 60,480, down 1,200 from T - 5; the trading volume was 35,622, down 200,575 from T - 5; and the open interest was 99,266, down 78,969 from T - 5. For the 2509 contract, the closing price was 59,880, down 1,860 from T - 5; the trading volume was 181,046, up 12,314 from T - 5; and the open interest was 306,885, up 90,331 from T - 5 [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt volume was 29,967, down 2,870 from T - 5 [1]. - **Basis**: The basis between spot and 2507 contract was - 30, up 1,150 from T - 5; between spot and 2509 contract was 570, up 1,810 from T - 5; between 2507 and 2509 contracts was 600, up 660 from T - 5 [1]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 622, down 8 from T - 5; lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,225, up 15 from T - 5 [1]. - **Lithium Salts**: Battery - grade lithium carbonate was 60,450, down 50 from T - 5; industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 58,850, down 50 from T - 5 [1]. - **Related Products in the Industry Chain**: Battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micronized powder) was 64,570, down 1,480 from T - 5; lithium hexafluorophosphate was 52,250, down 250 from T - 5 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 60,464 yuan/ton, up 72 yuan/ton from the previous working day. Battery - grade lithium carbonate was 5.99 - 6.10 million yuan/ton, with an average of 6.045 million yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous working day; industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 5.835 - 5.935 million yuan/ton, with an average of 5.885 million yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous working day [2]. - Yahua Group plans to rename its wholly - owned subsidiary Sichuan Yahua Lithium Industry Technology Co., Ltd. to "Yahua Lithium Industry Group" and transfer the equity of 5 subsidiaries involved in lithium business to it for free [2][3]. - On May 12, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signed a landmark mineral agreement with the United States. On June 16, the Ukrainian government approved opening its lithium mining to private investors, with the Dobra lithium mine in central Ukraine being the first project under this agreement [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The oversupply pattern in the lithium carbonate market in the second quarter is expected to continue, with no significant growth in demand - side production during the off - season. The supply - side production shows no obvious improvement, and both lithium ore and lithium salt inventories face great pressure, with a slow de - stocking process. The main market contradiction is that the pressure of lithium salt production capacity clearance is gradually spreading to the upstream ore end, and the loosening of ore prices will further drive down lithium salt prices. There is a risk of a spiral decline in ore and lithium salt prices. Also, be cautious of the contradiction between the high open interest of the 2507 contract and the approaching delivery month for new energy varieties [3]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include positive macro - policies that may stimulate power demand growth and an increasing probability of supply - side disturbances as lithium ore and lithium salt prices decline. Negative factors are the large future production capacity expectations of lithium ore, high inventories suppressing ore prices, high inventories of both lithium ore and lithium salt in a continuous accumulation trend, and the delay of production capacity clearance due to cost reduction of some high - cost technology routes [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Price and Strategy - **Futures Price Prediction**: The price of the lithium carbonate main contract is expected to fluctuate between 59,000 - 62,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.1% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 20.8% [2]. - **Enterprise Risk Management Strategy**: - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high product inventories and at risk of inventory impairment, it is recommended to short 70% of the lithium carbonate futures (LC2509) to lock in profits, sell 30% of call options (either over - the - counter or on - exchange options), and buy out - of - the - money put options (either on - exchange or over - the - counter options) [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with future procurement plans and worried about raw material price increases, it is recommended to buy far - month lithium carbonate contracts according to the procurement plan to lock in procurement costs, sell put options (either on - exchange or over - the - counter options), and buy out - of - the money call options (either on - exchange or over - the - counter options) [2]. 3.2 Futures Market Data - **Futures Contract Changes**: The closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract was 59,880 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan or 0.03% from the previous day; the trading volume was 181,046 lots, down 560 lots or 0.31%; the open interest was 306,885 lots, down 450 lots or 0.15%. The closing price of the LC2511 contract was 59,840 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan or 0.13%; the trading volume was 17,850 lots, down 3,940 lots or 18.08%; the open interest was 67,483 lots, up 4,127 lots or 6.51% [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate Month - spread Changes**: The LC07 - 08 month - spread was 340 yuan/ton (previous value: 160 yuan/ton, last week: 440 yuan/ton); LC08 - 11 was 300 yuan/ton (previous value: 300 yuan/ton, last week: 360 yuan/ton); LC09 - 11 was 40 yuan/ton (previous value: 100 yuan/ton, last week: - 100 yuan/ton); LC11 - 12 was - 380 yuan/ton (previous value: - 300 yuan/ton, last week: - 240 yuan/ton) [15]. 3.3 Lithium Ore and Lithium Salt Spot Prices - **Lithium Ore Prices**: The average daily prices of various lithium ores remained unchanged on the day. For example, the average price of lithium mica with Li2O: 2 - 2.5% was 1,225 yuan/ton, and the average price of lithium辉石 with Li2O: 6% (Brazil CIF) was 615 US dollars/ton [19]. - **Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide Prices**: The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 58,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 60,450 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide was 53,420 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan or 0.47%; the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 64,570 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan or 0.39% [22]. - **Lithium Industry Chain Spot Spreads**: The battery - grade lithium carbonate - industrial - grade lithium carbonate spread was 1,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the battery - grade lithium hydroxide - battery - grade lithium carbonate spread was 4,120 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan or 5.72%; the spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide CIF in Japan and South Korea and domestic prices was - 934.79 yuan/ton, up 262.22 yuan or - 21.91% [26]. 3.4 Downstream Product Prices - **Downstream Product Quotes**: The prices of some downstream products remained stable, while others declined slightly. For example, the price of power - type lithium iron phosphate was 30,370 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 523 (consumer - type) ternary material was 105,220 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan; the price of 622 (consumer - type) ternary material was 111,120 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan or 0.08%; the price of 811 (power - type) ternary material was 143,120 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan or 0.13% [36][37]. 3.5 Lithium Carbonate Warehouse Receipts - **Warehouse Receipt Quantity Changes**: The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts decreased from 31,713 to 29,967, a decrease of 1,746. Some warehouses such as Xiangyu Speed - Transfer Shanghai and Cosco Shipping Nanchang saw significant decreases in warehouse receipts [39].

Group 1: Lithium Carbonate Market Dynamics - The lithium carbonate futures price experienced fluctuations, initially rising to 62,100 yuan/ton on June 11 due to Zimbabwe's plan to ban lithium ore exports starting in 2027, but then fell again on June 12 as market fundamentals showed no production cuts, leading to continued oversupply pressure [1][7][8] - The production of lithium carbonate is expected to increase by 9.4% month-on-month in June, reaching 78,875 tons, driven by higher output from spodumene and recovery lithium, with an overall operating rate rising nearly 9 percentage points to 58% [2][8] - Despite the increase in production, the demand for lithium carbonate is expected to remain limited during the traditional off-season from June to August, with downstream purchasing primarily driven by immediate needs rather than stockpiling [2][10] Group 2: Electric Vehicle Sales and Impact - New energy vehicle sales in China have shown significant growth, with production and sales in the first five months of the year exceeding 10% year-on-year, indicating a stable upward trend in the automotive industry [3][5] - New energy vehicles accounted for 44% of total new car sales, with exports of new energy vehicles reaching 855,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 64.6% [3][5] Group 3: Supply Chain and Import Trends - Lithium ore imports have continued to grow, with April imports reaching 520,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 18%, primarily sourced from Australia, Zimbabwe, Brazil, and Nigeria [6][8] - Zimbabwe's government announced a ban on lithium ore exports starting in January 2027 to promote local refining industries, which is not expected to cause immediate shortages in the lithium carbonate market due to ample global lithium resources [6][7] Group 4: Price Trends and Market Outlook - The lithium price has been on a downward trend since March, with a potential equilibrium price around 58,000 yuan/ton based on supply and demand dynamics, indicating that prices may have reached a bottom [8][9] - Current market pressures stem from falling mineral prices and limited demand during the off-season, with expectations of continued inventory accumulation until August [9][10]