Core Viewpoint - The financial report of Wanchen Group, the parent company of the snack brand "Haoxianglai," shows significant growth in revenue and a successful turnaround in profit for 2024, indicating a strong market position in the bulk snack industry [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's revenue reached 32.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 247.9% [1]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company turned from a loss of 82.93 million yuan in the previous year to a profit of 294 million yuan [1]. - The bulk snack business generated revenue of 31.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 262.94%, accounting for 98.33% of total revenue [2]. Business Strategy - Wanchen Group has focused on penetrating lower-tier markets and integrating its supply chain to reduce costs, achieving economies of scale [2]. - The company opened 9,776 new stores in 2024, averaging 26 new stores per day, facilitated by a low-cost franchise model [4][6]. - The franchise model includes zero franchise fees, management fees, site selection fees, training fees, service fees, and delivery fees, requiring only a 20,000 yuan deposit and a one-time system usage fee of 13,000 yuan [4]. Market Position and Competition - As of March 11, 2024, "Haoxianglai" has over 10,000 operating stores, while Wanchen Group has signed contracts for over 15,000 stores in total [5]. - The competitive landscape includes "Mingming Hen Mang," which has also expanded rapidly, indicating a fierce rivalry in the bulk snack market [5]. Challenges and Risks - Despite rapid expansion, the company faced challenges such as a decline in single-store profitability and low gross margins [2][6]. - The net profit margins for the bulk snack business were low, with net profit rates of 2.63% and 2.74% for the first and second halves of 2024, respectively [8]. - Increased operational costs, including sales and management expenses, have risen significantly, with sales expenses reaching 1.431 billion yuan in 2024, up 229.8% from 2023 [8]. Future Outlook - The bulk snack market is projected to grow significantly, with an expected market size of 217.29 billion yuan by 2027, representing 18% of the snack food industry [9]. - Both "Haoxianglai" and "Mingming Hen Mang" are transitioning towards full-category supermarkets to enhance profitability and meet the demands of franchisees [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company has been upgraded to "Buy" [6][4]. Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for Q1 2025, with revenue reaching 10.821 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 124.02%, and a net profit of 215 million RMB, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 3344.13% [1][2]. - The company's strong brand momentum and competitive strength in the industry have been validated, leading to an optimistic outlook for the company's profitability and market position [1][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company's volume snack business generated revenue of 10.7 billion RMB, up 128% year-over-year, driven by an increase in store numbers, although same-store sales showed a slight decline [2]. - The net profit margin for the volume snack business improved significantly to 3.85%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points from the previous quarter, attributed to reduced marketing expenses and improved subsidies to merchants [2]. Strategic Initiatives - The company has announced a stock incentive plan, granting approximately 1.2% of current share capital, with performance targets set for net profit growth over the next four years [3]. - This initiative indicates the company's commitment to deepening its presence in the volume snack sector and reflects confidence in achieving substantial growth [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised upwards, with expected net profits of 820 million RMB, 1.14 billion RMB, and 1.41 billion RMB respectively, representing increases of 23%, 38%, and 54% [4][10]. - The target price for the company's shares has been raised to 182.22 RMB, based on a projected PE ratio of 40 times for 2025, reflecting the company's strong competitive position and growth potential in the volume snack industry [4][7].

一季报持续高增，维持"增持"评级 公司发布2025Q1 季报，实现营收108.2 亿元，同比增长124.0%；实现归母净利润2.1 亿元，同比增长 3344.1%。公司快速拓店，规模效应提升，我们上调盈利预测，预计公司2025-2027 年归母净利润分别 为8.9（+2.3）、11.5（+0.8）、16.6（+1.2）亿元，同比分别增长201.9%、29.5%、44.3%，当期股价对 应PE 分别为29.9、23.1、16.0 倍，维持"增持"评级。 零食量贩增长亮眼，品类拓宽打开空间 公司2024Q1 营收增速为124.0%，其中零食量贩业务持续高增，2025 年初门店数达14196 家，预计 2025Q1 约新开近1000 家门店，公司门店数量持续爬坡，2025 年预计随着华北、南方等区域继续拓店， 门店数量规模有望进一步提升。 公司调整门店店型向省钱超市模式进化，品类从零食水饮向熟食、日化、冻品等方向拓展，提升消费者 粘性，打开拓店空间。另外选品方面公司增加自有品牌，有望进一步提升毛利率，同时夯实公司品牌力 与护城河。 规模效应持续释放，量贩业务利润率有所提升2025Q1 公司毛利率11.0%，同比提升 ...

Group 1 - The company achieved revenue of 10.82 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 124.0% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 210 million yuan, up 3344.1% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was also 210 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10562.3% [1] - The snack wholesale business maintained a doubling growth trend, with revenue of 10.688 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 127.6% [1] Group 2 - The net profit margin of the wholesale business significantly improved quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 412 million yuan after excluding share-based payment expenses, resulting in a net profit margin of 3.85% [1] - The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was 11.0%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the sales/management expense ratio decreased by 0.7% and 0.5% year-on-year, respectively [1] - The company expects to see continued growth in profitability, with revised net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 of 944 million, 1.257 billion, and 1.608 billion yuan, representing year-on-year increases of 221.68%, 33.18%, and 27.85%, respectively [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2] Core Views - The company demonstrated strong competitive advantages in its business model, with a significant revenue increase of 124% year-on-year in Q1 2025, reaching 10.82 billion yuan, and a notable rise in net profit to 215 million yuan from 6 million yuan in Q1 2024 [1][2] - The snack retail business achieved revenue of 10.69 billion yuan in Q1 2025, with a net profit margin of 3.85%, reflecting a sequential improvement of 1.11 percentage points from Q4 2024 [2] - The company is expected to maintain a strong return on equity (ROE) of 47.1% in 2025, with projected net profits of 978 million yuan and a revenue forecast of 54.77 billion yuan [3] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company reported total revenue of 10.82 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a 124% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 215 million yuan, compared to 6 million yuan in Q1 2024 [1][2] - The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was 11%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the sales expense ratio and management expense ratio decreased by 0.7 and 0.5 percentage points, respectively [2] Business Model and Competitive Advantage - The company’s snack retail business continues to show strong competitive advantages, with a significant number of stores (14,196) contributing to its market position [2] - The business model is characterized by "low margin, high turnover," with inventory turnover days maintained at 15-16 days, indicating efficient inventory management [2] Future Projections - Revenue and net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are 54.77 billion yuan and 19.2 billion yuan, and 67.19 billion yuan and 25.3 billion yuan, respectively, with an upward adjustment in net profit for 2025 to 980 million yuan [2][3] - The company is expected to continue improving its return on equity, with projections of 47.1% in 2025 and 38.7% in 2026 [3]

Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates potential positive factors for the A-share market in the next month, including domestic growth stabilization and possible negotiations on US-China tariffs, which may drive market rebounds [4][10] - The report suggests that the current tariff shock is a significant black swan event, but due to its occurrence at the beginning of a bull market, the impact on market valuation may have already been completed [11] - The report recommends a value-oriented investment strategy, focusing on sectors that can provide both offensive and defensive opportunities, such as banks, steel, construction, and consumer sectors [12] Stock Recommendations - The report lists the "Top Ten Gold Stocks" for May 2025, which includes companies from various sectors such as food and beverage, home appliances, banking, power utilities, computing, media, electronics, new consumption, and energy [3][13] - Specific stocks highlighted include: - Wanchen Group (300972.SZ) in the food and beverage sector, with a projected EPS growth from -0.46 in 2023 to 6.67 in 2025 [3][14] - Xing Shuai Er (002860.SZ) in home appliances, with a projected EPS growth from 0.56 in 2023 to 0.73 in 2025 [3][18] - Qingdao Bank (002948.SZ) in banking, with a projected EPS growth from 0.61 in 2023 to 1.04 in 2025 [3][21] - New Energy (601918.SH) in power utilities, with a projected EPS growth from 0.81 in 2023 to 1.06 in 2025 [3][25] - Zhaoyi Information (688258.SH) in computing, with a projected EPS growth from 0.46 in 2023 to 0.81 in 2025 [3][29] - Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) in media, with a projected EPS growth from 11.89 in 2023 to 23.67 in 2025 [3][34] - Lens Technology (300433.SZ) in electronics, with a projected EPS growth from 0.61 in 2023 to 1.39 in 2025 [3][38] - Blukoo (0325.HK) in new consumption, with a projected EPS growth from -1.38 in 2023 to 5.53 in 2025 [3][41] - Yanzhou Coal Mining (600188.SH) in energy, with a projected EPS growth from 2.01 in 2023 to 1.39 in 2025 [3][45] - Xianhe Co., Ltd. (603733.SH) in new consumption, with a projected EPS growth from 0.94 in 2023 to 2.54 in 2025 [3][46] Industry Insights - The food and beverage sector, represented by Wanchen Group, is expected to strengthen its competitive position with a significant increase in store numbers and a focus on the snack retail market [14][15] - The home appliance sector, represented by Xing Shuai Er, is experiencing stable growth in white goods, driven by national subsidy policies [18][19] - The banking sector, represented by Qingdao Bank, shows strong loan growth and improved asset quality, with a focus on manufacturing and green loans [21][22] - The power utility sector, represented by New Energy, is expected to benefit from rising coal demand and improved cost management [25][26] - The computing sector, represented by Zhaoyi Information, is positioned for growth with its unique low-code development platform, SnapDevelop, which has a strong market potential [29][30] - The media sector, represented by Tencent Holdings, is seeing robust growth in its gaming and advertising businesses, with significant contributions from its social media platforms [34][35] - The electronics sector, represented by Lens Technology, is benefiting from the growth of the smartphone market and strong partnerships with major clients [38][39] - The new consumption sector, represented by Blukoo, is leveraging its IP commercialization strategy to drive growth and expand its market presence [41][42] - The energy sector, represented by Yanzhou Coal Mining, is focused on increasing coal production and improving cost efficiency amid fluctuating coal prices [45][46]

好想来在广州的门店 量贩零食还在狂奔，万辰集团去年一年开了近一万家门店。 近日，万辰集团（300972.SZ）发布了2024年财报。财报显示，去年，万辰集团实现营收323.29亿元， 同比增长247.86%；净利润为2.94亿元，同比增长453.95%。 万辰集团于2011年在漳州创立，原本主要从事食用菌业务，2022年8月，其创立了量贩零食品牌"陆小 馋"，首次进入量贩零食赛道。万辰集团主要通过合资和收购迅速扩大量贩零食版图，自2022年年底开 始，其接连拿下来优品、好想来、吖滴吖滴、老婆大人，之后又将这四个品牌统一更名为"好想来"品牌 零食，目前其旗下拥有"好想来"和"老婆大人"两大零食品牌，量贩零食也成为其主要业务。 而拥有零食很忙和赵一鸣零食两个品牌的鸣鸣很忙集团在华南市场则有较多布局。自2023年年底，量贩 零食行业就形成了以鸣鸣很忙集团和万辰集团为首的"两超多强"的局面，万辰集团是量贩零食赛道中唯 一一家上市企业。此前，按照门店规模来看，鸣鸣很忙集团排名第一，万辰集团排名第二。但是两者的 差距已经变得不太明显了。截至今年2月，鸣鸣很忙"在营门店"数超过1.5万家，万辰集团"签约门店"数 1.5万家 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rapid expansion of snack wholesale stores is driven by unique business models and changing consumer preferences, with significant market consolidation expected in the coming years [2][3][11]. Group 1: Rapid Expansion of Snack Wholesale Stores - The snack market has seen a transformation since 2021, with a surge in consumer demand for diverse options beyond traditional channels. Capital investment has accelerated the growth of snack wholesale stores, increasing from approximately 2,500 stores at the end of 2023 to an estimated 35,000-40,000 by the end of 2024, corresponding to a retail market size of nearly 140 billion yuan [3][4]. - Major brands are consolidating through strategic mergers, such as the merger between "Snack Busy" and "Zhao Yiming" announced in November 2023, which is indicative of the competitive landscape [3][4]. Group 2: Unique Business Model - Snack wholesale stores operate with a "multi-fast-good-cheap" model, featuring over 1,500 SKUs per store, primarily focusing on bulk products. These stores are strategically located in communities and commercial areas, covering a radius of 1-1.5 km, offering prices 20%-40% lower than traditional supermarkets [5][9]. - The average transaction value per customer is typically between 30-40 yuan, and stores introduce over 100 new products monthly while phasing out low-repurchase items to maintain consumer interest [5][9]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The long-term potential for snack wholesale stores is substantial, with estimates suggesting a market capacity of nearly 70,000 stores based on existing market density and purchasing power. The penetration rate of discount formats in China is projected to reach 15%-20% in the long run, aligning with trends observed in developed markets [11][12]. - Innovations in the discount retail sector are emerging, with stores expanding their product categories to include essential goods, thereby enhancing consumer experience and meeting diverse needs [12][13].