[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 7 Dec 2025 中国策略 China Strategy 政策窗口临近，市场反弹动能有望延续 Policy Window Approaching, Market Rebound Momentum Likely to Continue 周林泓 Amber Zhou 李加惠 Jiahui Li, CFA [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 上周我们认为市场整固后有望延续反弹，科技修复仍有空间。本周港股与 A 股市场缩量震荡后于周五拉升，市场开 始关注中国政策窗口；有色金属受国际金属价格大涨带动表现最强，科技中以算力为代表的相关个股也表现相对 活跃。 下周市场将面临三大关键事件：政治局会议、中央经济工作会议以及美联储议息会议，市场波动可能加大。周五 市场已开始提前交易政治局会议释放宽松货币政策与积极财政政策信号的预期。同时，市场对政策支持长期资金 入市的预期进一步升温，周五金管总局正式下 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market is experiencing a period of low trading volume and volatility, with a significant decrease in trading activity and market sentiment due to the lack of new economic or financial data and the upcoming key policy meetings [2][10] - In contrast to the A-share market's stagnation, commodity prices, particularly silver and copper, have seen strong increases, driven by low inventory levels and changing demand dynamics influenced by new industries and policy shifts [2][13] Group 2 - Recent changes in the financial market include a relaxation of constraints on non-bank financial institutions, which is expected to bring more incremental capital into the market and benefit the long-term asset side of non-bank institutions as A-share earnings recover [3][19] - Historical data suggests that after previous relaxations of risk factors for insurance companies and increased leverage for brokerages, the market has performed well, indicating potential for excess returns in the non-bank sector compared to the overall market [3][21] Group 3 - Positive marginal changes in external demand are emerging, with significant improvements in new export orders and related indicators, suggesting a rebound in China's export growth [4][22] - Long-term trends indicate that the onset of a U.S. interest rate cut cycle typically leads to a loosening of global liquidity, which can stimulate foreign direct investment and trade demand, benefiting China's exports [4][24] Group 4 - Despite some fluctuations in overseas interest rate cut expectations, the focus remains on the U.S. labor market, which is currently weak, with recent data showing job losses and high unemployment rates [5][37] - The market anticipates that even if there are short-term fluctuations in the interest rate cut pace, the overall trend towards lower rates is likely to continue, supporting global investment and manufacturing recovery [5][42] Group 5 - The A-share market's current low trading volume and cooling sentiment may lead to clearer structural signals in the future, with potential benefits from the relaxation of constraints on non-bank institutions and the recovery of overall A-share earnings [6][48] - Recommendations for investment include focusing on industrial resource chains, non-bank capital expansion, China's equipment exports, and sectors benefiting from increased consumer spending as capital flows back into the market [6][48]

非银金融 2025 年 12 月 07 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 -29% -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 非银金融 沪深300 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《监管态度转向积极，看好券商板块 行情—吴清主席在中证协大会的致辞 学习》-2025.12.7 《大国崛起需建设金融强国，券商海 外业务迎发展良机—券商海外业务深 度研究》-2025.11.30 《公募 REITs 试点纳入商业不动产， 险企开门红向好 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.11.30 券商杠杆上限有望松绑，险企调降风险因子释放资金 ——行业周报 lukun@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524040002 周观点：券商杠杆上限有望松绑，险企调降风险因子释放资金 证监会主席吴清表态积极且超预期，保险投资端松绑政策符合预期。券商和保险 行业业务端景气延续，叠加政策端向好和全年相对滞涨，看好非银板块布局机会。 券商：监管表态积极，行业有望进入"政策宽松期"，杠杆上限提升助力 ROE 12 月 6 日证监会主席吴清在中证协第八次会员大会上致辞，表态积极，核心 ...

Core Insights - The A-share market is experiencing a split, with technology stocks performing well while consumer stocks are lagging behind [1] - Brokers remain optimistic, citing terms like "AI investment bubble deflation," "Federal Reserve interest rate cut expectations," and "institutional layout for 2026" [3] Market Dynamics - Despite being in a bull market, sudden drops of up to 8% can occur, reminiscent of past market behaviors in 2019 and 2020 [3] - Large funds may need to induce significant market corrections to acquire shares from retail investors, leading to varied outcomes for different investors [3] K-Line Analysis - A quantitative system can reveal the true intentions behind trading behaviors, distinguishing between institutional accumulation and retail buying [7][9] - The analysis shows that institutional buying leads to significant price increases, while retail buying often results in further declines [11] Liquidity Outlook - There are indications of potential foreign capital inflows in December, contingent on the Federal Reserve's actions [11] - Recent trends show a slight recovery in newly issued funds, suggesting an influx of real incremental capital [11] Recommendations for Investors - Investors should not rush into technology stocks solely based on surface-level excitement; the presence of institutional backing is crucial [12] - It is important to differentiate between "false dips" and "real declines" to make informed decisions [13] - Monitoring quantitative data can provide insights into the actual flow of funds in the market [14]

Group 1: A-shares and Commodity Markets - The A-share market is experiencing a significant reduction in trading volume, with the average turnover rate dropping to the lowest level since July 2023, indicating a cooling in market activity [3][15] - In contrast, commodity markets, particularly metals like silver and copper, are witnessing strong price increases due to historically low inventory levels, which reflect the industry's adaptation to a relatively stable policy environment [3][18] - The recent surge in commodity prices is attributed to the low inventory situation and the potential for new demand driven by emerging industries and policy changes, challenging traditional static supply-demand pricing perspectives [3][18] Group 2: Financial Market Changes - Recent changes in the financial market include a reduction in risk factors for insurance companies and discussions about expanding capital space and leverage limits for brokerages, which may lead to increased market liquidity [4][32] - Historical data suggests that past relaxations of risk factors and leverage policies have resulted in positive market performance, with non-bank financial institutions outperforming the overall A-share market [4][32] Group 3: Domestic Economic Fundamentals - There are positive signs in the domestic economy, particularly in exports, with the November manufacturing PMI showing significant improvement in new export orders, indicating a potential rebound in China's export growth [5][33] - The recovery in external demand is supported by rising export growth rates in South Korea and increased container throughput at major Chinese ports, suggesting a broader recovery in global trade [5][33] Group 4: Global Economic Outlook - The expectation of a shift to a looser global liquidity environment as the Federal Reserve enters a rate-cutting cycle is anticipated to boost foreign direct investment (FDI) and global trade demand [6][36] - Emerging markets, particularly in Africa and ASEAN, are beginning to see increased FDI inflows, which are expected to contribute to China's export growth [5][36][37] Group 5: Interest Rate Expectations - Recent dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials have led to a rise in December rate cut expectations, although the employment market remains a critical concern, with recent data showing a decline in job numbers [6][52][60] - The market is currently pricing in a higher likelihood of rate cuts in 2026 compared to previous forecasts, indicating a more optimistic outlook for monetary policy adjustments [6][57]

来源：浙商证券 配置方面，基于"冗余时刻区间震荡，设定目标守株待兔"的判断：择时方面，建议持仓等待，切勿追涨 杀跌、垫高自身成本，同时根据不同宽基指数的"左脚"分类设定目标（例如上证指数9 月4 日低点或前 期跳空缺口，恒生科技指数近期低点或年线），伺机出击、分批介入。行业配置和个股方面，建议关注 明显滞涨且份额扩张的券商板块，短期可以关注走势顺畅且历史上在12 月胜率较高的家电，留意医 药、消费、AI 应用板块中相对低位的标的，同时关注年线上方的低位滞涨个股。 风险提示 国内经济修复不及预期；全球地缘政治存在不确定性。 责任编辑：郭栩彤 来源：浙商证券 本周市场继续反弹，但双向波动有所增大。展望后市，考虑到今年三季度市场涨幅较大、强势标的多数 还在冲高回落后的修复过程中，加之近期未出现引领大盘上涨的宏大叙事和领涨行业，因此我们预计后 市大概率维持区间震荡格局。配置方面，基于"冗余时刻区间震荡，设定目标守株待兔"的判断：择时方 面，建议持仓等待，切勿追涨杀跌、垫高自身成本，同时根据不同宽基指数的"左脚"分类设定目标（例 如上证指数9 月4 日低点或前期跳空缺口，恒生科技指数近期低点或年线），伺机出击、分批介入 ...

Group 1 - A-shares experienced a significant rebound with strong performances from the brokerage and insurance sectors, driven by favorable news over the weekend [1] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) Chairman Wu Qing emphasized the acceleration of building first-class investment banks and institutions [1] - The 79th edition of the simulated stock trading competition, "掘金大赛," commenced, attracting numerous participants who achieved good returns [1] Group 2 - The competition offers cash rewards for top performers, with the first prize being 688 yuan and additional prizes for subsequent ranks [3] - Participants can gain access to exclusive market insights through the "火线快评" product, which includes the latest events, investment logic, and company analyses [3][8] - The competition aims to enhance trading success rates by providing participants with valuable information and networking opportunities [3] Group 3 - The brokerage sector, referred to as the "bull market flag bearer," has shown notable upward movement, indicating strong buying interest [4] - The human-robotics sector is transitioning from concept-driven to performance-driven, with significant potential for growth [5] - Analysts predict that if the U.S. economy underperforms, gold may excel, while industrial metals like copper and tin could perform well if the economy exceeds expectations [5] Group 4 - Current copper prices are influenced by expectations regarding U.S. copper tariffs, leading to significant price differentials between CME and LME copper [5] - High supply levels are expected to keep copper prices stable, with Goldman Sachs forecasting prices to fluctuate between $10,000 and $11,000 per ton by 2026 [6] - The Shanghai Composite Index is facing a critical resistance level, which could determine the market's direction in the near term [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the brokerage sector, indicating a potential for gradual realization of the sector's rebound logic [3]. Core Insights - The recent speech by the chairman of the China Securities Association has shifted market expectations positively for the brokerage sector, with a strong certainty of an upward adjustment in the long-term ROE central [3]. - The report highlights three main investment themes: 1. The attractiveness of the equity market will benefit wealth management and asset management businesses of brokerages, with a specific recommendation for Dongfang Securities [3]. 2. Companies benefiting from an improved competitive landscape, with key recommendations including Guotai Junan, GF Securities, and CITIC Securities [3]. 3. Valuation mismatches in Huatai Securities A+H and strong international business competitiveness in China Galaxy and CICC [3]. Market Review - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index closed at 4,584.54, with a weekly change of +1.28%. The non-bank index closed at 1,975.96, with a weekly change of +2.27%. The brokerage, insurance, and diversified financial sectors reported changes of +1.14%, +5.08%, and +0.49%, respectively [6]. - The average daily trading volume for the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 16,962.89 billion, with a year-to-date increase of 61.08% compared to the previous year [17]. Non-Bank Industry Data - As of December 5, 2025, the 10-year government bond yield was 1.85%, with a weekly change of +1.14 basis points. The credit spread for corporate bonds was 0.54%, with a weekly change of +3.61 basis points [11]. - The insurance sector's original premium income for the first ten months of 2025 reached 5.48 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8% [28]. Individual Stock Highlights - In the insurance sector, notable A-share performances included China Pacific Insurance (+8.23%), Ping An (+5.09%), and China Life (+4.32%) [8]. - In the brokerage sector, the top performers included Zhongyin Securities (+7.89%) and Xingye Securities (+6.35%) [8].

行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 luozh@swsresearch.com 孙冀齐 A0230523110001 sunjq@swsresearch.com 金黎丹 A0230525060004 jinld@swsresearch.com 联系人 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 luozh@swsresearch.com 2025 年 12 月 07 日 券商板块信心提振，补涨逻辑有望 逐步兑现 看好 ——非银金融行业周报（2025/12/1-2025/12/5） 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 评 非银金融 - ⚫ 券商：本周申万券商 II 指数收涨 1.14%，跑输沪深 300 指数 0.14pct。中证协第八次会员大会上吴清主 席讲话扭转市场对券商板块预期，证券业中长期 ROE 中枢上移确定性强。1）适度拓宽优质券商资本空间 与杠杆上限：会上，吴清主席提到" 在监管政策上，我们将着力强化分类监管、"扶优限劣"。对优质机 ...

周一开盘，A股何去何从？徐小明分析指出，从速度的角度看，这里依旧不排除是ABC的B浪反弹，如果是上升周期，速度理论上不应该这么慢。 "速度慢会直接导致操作的难度大，这里是建议相对要谨慎一些的，多看少动，观望为主。"徐小明提到，做多出错的概率就大，每个人纠错的能力不一样， 少想少做对现在来讲可能更适合。接下来的重点是周一和周二，部分指数有日线级别的序列高9，日线级别不算小，先看一下会不会形成小高点。 徐小明强调，低点的判定近期没有，仍需耐心等待。 风险提示：此文章不构成投资建议。股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 上周A股周线收出小阳线，周内走势呈现分化特征，沪指周一上涨后，周二至周四连续盘整，周五重拾升势。整体来看，市场涨幅不大且运行速度相对缓 慢，下跌阶段用时6天累计下跌200个点，随后的反弹过程持续十天仅反弹100个点。 上周五午后，保险、券商板块突然异动，带动指数反弹，随后消息面传来利好。国家金融监督管理总局发布通知，下调保险公司相关业务风险因子，进一步 提升险资配置权益资产的资本使用效率，为险资入市持续打开空间。周六，证监会主席吴清发声，对优质券商适当"松绑"，进一步优化风控指标，适度打开 资本空间和杠杆限制， ...