Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry for 2025 [2] Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals industry has experienced a qualitative change in profit quality, with significant growth in revenue and net profit over the past decade [4][19] - The industry is expected to continue benefiting from a tightening supply-demand structure, interest rate cuts, and favorable policy cycles [5][10] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance and Profit Growth - From 2015 to 2024, the non-ferrous metals industry achieved total revenue of 3,407.5 billion yuan, a 205% increase over ten years, and a net profit of 138.4 billion yuan, a staggering 4,691% increase [4][19] - The net profit surged from 15.7 billion yuan in 2019 to 181.8 billion yuan in 2022, marking a 1,062% increase during the global quantitative easing period [4][19] - In 2024, revenue growth accelerated to 5.86%, and net profit growth improved to 1.77%, compared to 2023's revenue growth of 1.5% and a net profit decline of 25.21% [4][19] 2. Price Trends in 2024 - Industrial metal prices generally increased due to a tight supply-demand structure, with zinc leading the rise at 20.1%, while nickel prices fell by 2.5% due to oversupply [5][31] - Precious metals saw significant price increases, with gold prices rising by 27.8% and silver by 24.8% [5][33] - Small metals exhibited mixed price movements, with cobalt prices dropping by 23.6% and antimony prices increasing by 72.6% [5][34] 3. Profitability and Industry Concentration - The profitability of the non-ferrous metals industry improved, with gross margins for industrial and precious metals rising to 10.03% and 12.95%, respectively [6][50] - The concentration of profits has increased, with the top ten companies accounting for 64% of net profits, up from 45% [6][60] - The top ten companies' net profits grew by 39%, significantly outpacing the overall industry net profit decline of 1% [6][60] 4. Fund Allocation Trends - The fund allocation in the non-ferrous metals sector reached a historical high of 5.43% in Q1 2024, before dropping to 2.85% by Q4 due to economic weakness and declining demand [7][9] - In Q1 2025, the allocation increased again to 4.34%, driven primarily by industrial and precious metals [9][10] 5. Outlook for 2025 - The copper sector is expected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance, with a significant reduction in long-term contract prices [10] - Gold is anticipated to benefit from heightened geopolitical risks and increased central bank purchases, leading to a sustained high demand [10] - The rare earth sector is showing signs of improvement due to supply-side reforms and increased demand from new energy and military sectors [10][35]

2025 年 05 月 15 日 晨会纪要 研究所： 证券分析师： 余春生 S0350513090001 yucs@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 晨会纪要 ——2025 年第 80 期 观点精粹: 最新报告摘要 1）2025 年，特斯拉 Optimus 机器人有望开始量产，出货量、性能表现、应用场景或者降本速度或将超市场 预期（特斯拉公开指引出货量数千台级别）； 2）2025 年，宇树、华为、智元、小鹏、小米等国产机器人产业链发展或将加速； 3）2026 年，特斯拉人形机器人有望落地月产能万台级别的机器人产线，并正式开启人形机器人的对外交付 （来源：特斯拉官网）。 特斯拉官网开放多个 Optimus 相关岗位，北京亦庄人形机器人半程马拉松成功举办——人形机器人行业 2025 年 4 月月报--行业 PPT 报告 银锡价格上行带动业绩，资源雄厚成长可期--兴业银锡/工业金属(000426/212403) 公司动态研究 2024 年业绩高增，无极品牌出海放量--隆鑫通用/摩托车及其他(603766/212804) 公司点评 国盾量子(688027)公司报告：中国量子科技领军，"一体两翼"布局 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Recommended" for the non-ferrous metals industry [5][8]. Core Insights - In 2024, the prices of major metals such as gold and copper significantly increased, leading to substantial growth in the performance of related listed companies. Precious metal prices rose over 20% compared to 2023, with major companies experiencing a net profit growth rate exceeding 40%. Copper and aluminum prices increased by 7.89% and 7.53% respectively, while industrial metal companies saw a net profit growth of over 30% [5][16][24]. - The energy metals sector faced a sharp decline, with battery-grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide prices dropping over 60%, resulting in a staggering 97.88% decrease in net profits for the sector [5][6][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Revenue and Profit - The non-ferrous metals industry achieved a total revenue of 3.47 trillion yuan in 2024, a 5.86% increase from 3.28 trillion yuan in 2023. The net profit reached 138.41 billion yuan, a slight increase of 1.77% from 136.01 billion yuan in 2023 [17][24]. 2. Precious Metals - The precious metals sector saw a revenue increase of 23.55% to 2909.62 billion yuan in 2024, with net profits rising by 48.24% to 122.85 billion yuan. The average LME gold price for 2024 was 2381.9 USD/oz, up 22.6% from 1942.89 USD/oz in 2023 [31][32][39]. 3. Industrial Metals - The industrial metals sector generated a revenue of 2.66 trillion yuan in 2024, an 8.17% increase from 2.46 trillion yuan in 2023, with net profits growing by 30.58% to 1083.61 billion yuan. The average LME copper price was 9146.79 USD/ton, a 7.89% increase from 8477.77 USD/ton in 2023 [43][44][56]. 4. Energy Metals - The energy metals sector's revenue fell to 155.07 billion yuan in 2024, a decline of 26.21% from 210.14 billion yuan in 2023, with net profits plummeting by 97.88% to 5.1 billion yuan. The average prices for battery-grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide dropped by 65.02% and 68.93% respectively [61][70][71]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends leading companies in the industry such as Shandong Gold, Zhongjin Gold, Zijin Mining, and Ganfeng Lithium, highlighting their potential for growth and recovery in performance [8].

[Table_Main] 行业研究|有色金属 证券研究报告 有色金属行业双周报 2025 年 05 月 13 日 [Table_Title] 贵金属价格小幅回调，进一步加强战略矿产出口管制 ——有色金属行业双周报 [Table_Summary] 报告要点： 行情回顾：近 2 周申万有色金属指数下跌 0.68% 近 2 周（2025.4.28-2025.5.09），有色金属行业指数下跌 0.68%，沪 深 300 指数上涨 1.64%。从细分领域看，金属新材料（5.78%）、小金 属（4.30%）和能源金属（2.56%）涨幅居前，工业金属和贵金属分别 下跌为-0.91%、-10.42%。 金属价格：贵金属价格小幅下调，铜价受供需格局影响上涨 截至 5 月 9 日，COMEX 黄金收盘价为 3329.1 美元/盎司，近 2 周下 降 0.03%；COMEX 银收盘价为 32.88 美元/盎司，近 2 周下降 0.42%； LME 铜现货结算价为 9486 美元/吨，近 2 周上涨 1.30%；LME 铝现 货结算价为 2401 美元/吨，近 2 周下降 0.46%。LME 锡 31,790 美元 /吨，近两周下跌 ...

二、全球资本流动：美元资产配置的范式转移 美联储政策转向正在引发全球资本大迁徙。美元指数自高位回落，但期权市场显示，1个月期美元指数 风险逆转指标仍显示市场对美元进一步贬值的预期有所降温。这种矛盾信号背后，是避险资金与套利资 金的激烈博弈。 DBG Markets监测到，全球资本配置策略正发生深刻转变。企业财资管理采取分层对冲策略：对6个月 内美元负债采用远期合约锁定成本，对12个月以上敞口配置零成本期权组合。同时需密切关注离岸美元 流动性指标，当前TED利差升至28个基点，显示银行间市场风险偏好趋紧。对于防御性资产配置，医疗 保健与消费必需品板块显现估值优势，市盈率分别为16.5倍和18.5倍，低于标普500指数近22倍的市盈 率。 在美联储政策立场出现历史性转折的关键节点，DBG Markets最新研究报告揭示，全球资本市场正站在 十字路口。随着美联储主席鲍威尔释放出"降息周期可能提前启动"的强烈信号，一场涉及美元资产、新 兴市场货币与大宗商品的重定价浪潮已然开启。 一、美联储政策转向：从鹰派紧缩到鸽派转向的路径图 美联储货币政策基调突变，源于对经济数据的重新评估。尽管6月非农就业新增20.6万人超出市场 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Shenzhen Upstream Industry Index has shown a recent increase, indicating potential investment opportunities in the upstream sector of the market [1] Group 1: Index Performance - The Shenzhen Upstream Industry Index rose by 1.32%, closing at 3951.01 points, with a trading volume of 16.078 billion yuan [1] - Over the past month, the index has increased by 5.14%, while it has decreased by 4.57% over the last three months and is down 0.09% year-to-date [1] Group 2: Index Composition - The Shenzhen Upstream Industry Index is composed of companies from the upstream, midstream, and downstream sectors, providing diverse investment options for investors [1] - The index is based on a reference date of December 31, 2002, with a base point of 1000.0 [1] Group 3: Top Holdings - The top ten weighted stocks in the Shenzhen Upstream Industry Index include: - Ganfeng Lithium (5.27%) - Shanjin International (4.81%) - Yun Aluminum (4.64%) - Tianqi Lithium (4.54%) - Shenhuo Co. (4.0%) - Feilihua (3.7%) - Tongling Nonferrous Metals (3.66%) - China Rare Earth (3.62%) - Zhongmin Resources (3.17%) - Tianshan Aluminum (3.13%) [1] Group 4: Sector Allocation - The sector allocation of the index holdings is as follows: - Industrial metals: 34.91% - Rare metals: 32.53% - Precious metals: 10.22% - Coal: 6.42% - Other non-metal materials: 5.57% - Oil and natural gas: 3.86% - Other nonferrous metals and alloys: 3.39% - Oil and gas extraction and field services: 3.10% [2] Group 5: Sample Adjustment - The index samples are adjusted semi-annually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December each year [2] - The sample adjustment typically does not exceed 20%, with special circumstances allowing for temporary adjustments [2]

业 绩 综 有色金属行业 标配（维持） 有色金属行业 2024 年及 2025Q1 业绩综述： 板块业绩表现分化，2024 年有色金属行业稳中有升 2025 年 5 月 12 日 投资要点： 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 业 研 究 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFind 分析师：许正堃 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340523120001 电话：0769-23320072 邮箱： xuzhengkun@dgzq.com.cn 贵金属、工业金属表现亮眼，2024年有色金属行业逆势增长。2024年申 万有色金属行业141家上市公司合计实现营业收入34705.25亿元，同比增 长5.86%，其中98家公司营收同比正增长；实现归母净利润1384.09亿元， 同比+1.78%，其中86家公司归母净利润同比正增长。申万有色金属行业 2024年全年上涨3.19%，涨跌幅在申万31个行业中排名第17。总体来看， 贵金属、工业金属板块表现亮眼，而能源金属及小金属领域因需求低迷， 产品价格下跌，致使板块业绩下滑 ...

2024年，全市场上市公司实现增加值19.82万亿元，占GDP的14.69%，上市公司全员劳动生产率64.50万 元/人，是全社会数值的3.71倍。同时，全市场上市公司实现营业收入71.98万亿元，近六成公司实现营 收正增长...... 消费方面，各地以旧换新、国家补贴等政策陆续落地，有效激发终端消费活力。 新能源乘用车促进汽车零部件产业需求保持强劲，营收增长6.48%，净利润增长16.83%。家用电器营 收、净利润分别增长5.62%、7.11%，消费电子行业营收、净利润分别增长20.89%、12.78%。出行旅游 需求提振，旅游行业上市公司营收增长15.84%，交通运输、仓储和邮政业营收增长11.11%，净利润增 长21.45%。线上线下（300959）消费热情回升，食品饮料、个护、化妆品等行业营收实现正增长，其 中零食行业营收增长56.06%、净利润增长24.53%。物流行业五大快递公司营收增长11.69%、净利润增 长22.69%。 业绩韧性与行业亮点突出 报告显示，2024年，沪、深、北三家证券交易所5412家上市公司实现营业收入71.98万亿元，第四季度 营收同比增长1.46%，环比增长8.11%， ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company's performance has been impacted by power shortages and asset impairments, but it is expected to see a significant increase in copper production in 2025 [5][7] - The company reported a revenue of 145.53 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.88%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.81 billion yuan, up 4.05% year-on-year [7] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 2.90 billion, 3.39 billion, and 4.08 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14X, 12X, and 10X [5][7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 137.45 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 12.81% [6] - The company plans to produce 194,900 tons of copper concentrate in 2025, a 26% increase year-on-year, and 1,896,000 tons of cathode copper, a 7% increase [7] - The company's gross profit for copper products is expected to be 5.39 billion yuan, down 20% year-on-year, while sulfuric acid gross profit is projected to increase by 205% to 1.14 billion yuan [7] Key Financial Metrics - The company's total market capitalization is 40.56 billion yuan, with a circulating market capitalization of 33.37 billion yuan [3] - The asset-liability ratio stands at 49.48%, and the net asset value per share is 2.71 yuan [3] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 0.23 yuan, with a return on equity (ROE) of 7.97% [6][8]

小金属：钨资源战略地位凸显，矿端偏强运行 钨作为国家战略性资源，其开采利用受国家指标控制、供应受限，随着全球地缘政治博弈加深，钨资源 的战略性地位将逐步凸显，矿端或维持强势运行。虽然短期需求端释放增量有限，但随着国内制造业的 复苏，以及出口端的修复，钨的供需错配或将延续，钨价或稳定增长。同时产业持续调结构升级，向高 端化迈进，钨下游刀具等领域具有较大国产化替代空间，有望推动行业内相关生产企业利润增长。 风险提示：下游需求弱于预期、供给端大量释放、美联储降息进程不及预期等。 5月8日，美联储宣布维持联邦基金利率目标区间在4.25%至4.50%之间，符合市场预期，美联储已连续 三次维持利率不变。FOMC政策声明中增加了"通胀和失业率上升的风险增加"的描述，据芝商所数据， 市场对美联储重启降息的时点延后至7月。同时，随着中美经贸会谈开启，英美贸易协定落地，市场情 绪有所好转，美元指数和美股有所反弹，黄金价格承压。展望后市，特朗普政策的不确定性、全球贸易 格局和货币体系可能面临重塑、去美元化进程不断推进、央行对黄金的需求保持在高位等长期利多金价 因素依旧存在，且美联储仍有充足的降息空间，对金价形成有力支撑。受益标的： ...