有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/07/17 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2025/07/17 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 78060 9576 8.15 三月 77940 9641 8.09 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.17 -149.02 现货出口 -105.62 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2025/07/17 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 22060 2686 8.21 三月 21995 2695 6.27 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.68 -1243.32 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2025/07/17 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 20520 2579 7.96 三月 20360 2581 7.92 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.51 -1436.31 镍：跨市套利跟踪 2025/07/17 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 119950 14947 8.02 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.25 -2104.30 铅：跨市套利跟踪 2025/07/17 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [2][14]. Core Insights - The company is projected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.2-11.2 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 27.52% to 40.03%. The net profit for Q2 2025 is expected to be between 5.21-6.21 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 4.41% to 24.45% and a year-on-year growth of 9.92% to 31.01% [4][5]. - The growth in performance is primarily driven by the increase in market prices for tin, copper, and zinc, alongside effective cost reduction measures and production optimization [4][5]. - The company plans to produce 90,000 tons of tin, 125,000 tons of copper, and 131,600 tons of zinc in 2025, with Q1 production figures showing 24,200 tons of tin, 24,400 tons of copper, and 33,300 tons of zinc [5]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to generate revenues of 48.36 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 15.21%. The projected revenues for 2026 and 2027 are 51.90 billion yuan and 54.68 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 7.32% and 5.36% [6][10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 23.09 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 59.86%. The expected net profits for 2026 and 2027 are 25.50 billion yuan and 27.38 billion yuan, with growth rates of 10.45% and 7.36% [6][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.40 yuan in 2025, increasing to 1.55 yuan in 2026 and 1.66 yuan in 2027 [6][10]. Market Conditions - The report notes that while there may be short-term supply disruptions, the long-term price trend for tin is expected to rise due to ongoing demand from the semiconductor industry, which is projected to grow at around 11% globally [6][10]. - The company has announced a share buyback plan to protect shareholder interests, indicating confidence in future growth [5].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Company and Industry Involved - The conference call discusses a mining company involved in copper, lead, and zinc production, with a focus on their operational performance and production plans for the year. Key Points and Arguments Production and Sales Performance - The company reported a stable mineral production output, with a quarter-on-quarter increase in production from Qianxin, which is primarily sourced from Inner Mongolia's Xibu Copper Industry and Huokqi Copper Mine [1] - In Q1, the copper-gold mine production reached 26% of the annual target, indicating a potential to exceed the previously set goal of 168,000 tons for the year, despite a planned reduction of 10,000 tons compared to last year [3] - The company plans to conduct major maintenance in December, which is typically the month with the most adverse mining conditions [4] Financial Performance and Challenges - The copper smelting segment is under pressure, with processing fees currently negative at $30, leading to a loss in Q1 despite an increase in profits compared to the previous year [5][6] - The company aims to reduce losses in the copper smelting segment by improving raw material structure and increasing procurement of lower-cost mixed ores [7] - The overall processing fees for domestic copper are lower than imported copper, with processing costs ranging from 4,800 to 5,300 [9] Raw Material Supply and Procurement - The company anticipates a stable supply of raw materials, with a significant portion of lead and zinc needing to be sourced externally due to insufficient internal production [12][13] - The supply of new raw materials is expected to improve compared to previous years, with lower procurement difficulties noted [13] Cost Management and Future Outlook - The complete cost of copper and lead production is reported to be stable, with expectations of cost reductions as new projects come online [16][17] - The company is focusing on internal management improvements and cost reduction strategies to enhance profitability in the coming year [8] Project Developments - The company is progressing on the Phase III expansion project at Yulong Copper Mine, expected to be completed by late next year, with a short production ramp-up time anticipated [22][23] - The total investment for the project is estimated at 5 billion, with cash flow management indicating that the company can handle the financial burden over the next few years [23] Miscellaneous - The company has experienced a return to asset impairment of 60 million, primarily due to previous inventory adjustments, but expects this to be less significant than last year [20] - The company is actively engaging in exploration and resource expansion as a key focus area for future growth [24] Other Important but Overlooked Content - The company is not currently signing long-term contracts for processing fees, indicating a cautious approach to market fluctuations [9] - The Q1 performance of the company shows a cumulative revenue of 3.1 billion with a profit of 1.89 billion, reflecting a strong operational performance despite market challenges [15]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish - Alumina: Cautiously bearish - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [8] Core Viewpoints - The current seasonal off - peak season for electrolytic aluminum is evident, with downstream operating rates declining and processing fees facing losses. Although social inventory is starting to accumulate, the absolute inventory level is still at a record low. In the long - term, supply is restricted while consumption shows stable growth. Alumina supply is in a slight surplus, with inventory accumulation accelerating, and long - term surplus expectations remain unchanged. Aluminum alloy is in the consumption off - peak season, and there are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [4][6][7] Summary by Relevant Content Important Data - **Aluminum Spot**: On July 15, 2025, the Yangtze River A00 aluminum price was 20,510 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the Yangtze River A00 aluminum spot premium was 50 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton. The Central Plains A00 aluminum price was 20,370 yuan/ton, and the spot premium was - 90 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton. The Foshan A00 aluminum price was 20,500 yuan/ton, and the spot premium was 40 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan/ton [2] - **Aluminum Futures**: On July 15, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 20,390 yuan/ton, closed at 20,430 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (- 0.02%) from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 103,595 lots, a decrease of 105,046 lots, and the open interest was 205,194 lots, a decrease of 17,295 lots [2] - **Inventory**: As of July 14, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 501,000 tons. As of July 15, 2025, the LME aluminum inventory was 416,975 tons, an increase of 11,425 tons from the previous trading day [2] - **Alumina Spot Price**: On July 15, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,160 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,150 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,250 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 366 US dollars/ton [3] - **Alumina Futures**: On July 15, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 3,138 yuan/ton, closed at 3,165 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan/ton (1.22%) from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 383,948 lots, an increase of 33,702 lots, and the open interest was 232,632 lots, a decrease of 9,483 lots [3] - **Aluminum Alloy Price**: On July 15, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 15,100 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 15,300 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 19,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the ADC12 - A00 spread in East China was - 910 yuan/ton [3] - **Aluminum Alloy Inventory**: The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 31,400 tons, a weekly increase of 2,500 tons; the in - factory inventory was 70,900 tons, a weekly decrease of 7,900 tons; the total inventory was 102,300 tons, a weekly decrease of 5,400 tons [3] Market Analysis - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The seasonal off - peak season is obvious, with downstream operating rates and production of aluminum rods and aluminum strips and foils declining. Social inventory is accumulating, but the absolute value is at a record low. Macro - conditions are temporarily favorable. Aluminum smelting profits have expanded to 4,000 yuan/ton in the consumption off - peak season. A price correction due to inventory accumulation may provide an opportunity to lay out long - term long positions. In the long - term, supply is restricted while consumption shows stable growth [4] - **Alumina**: In the spot market, 3,000 tons of alumina were sold to a south - west electrolytic aluminum plant at an ex - factory price of 3,270 yuan/ton. Supply is slightly in surplus, and total inventory accumulation is accelerating, mainly in the raw material reserves of electrolytic aluminum plants. The cost of bauxite is under pressure, and the long - term surplus expectation remains unchanged [5][6] - **Aluminum Alloy**: It is in the consumption off - peak season, and the futures price fluctuates with the aluminum price. The supply of scrap aluminum and raw aluminum is still tight, and the cost supports the price. The spread between the AD2511 - AL2511 contracts is - 465 yuan/ton. The 11 - contract has become a peak - season contract, and cross - variety arbitrage opportunities should be noted [7] Strategy - **Single - side Trading**: Bullish on aluminum, bearish on alumina, and bullish on aluminum alloy [8] - **Arbitrage**: Long the SHFE aluminum calendar spread, and long AD11 while shorting AL11 [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Copper - After the 232 investigation is finalized, the electrolytic copper in non-US regions shows a pattern of "loosening supply expectations and weakening actual demand", and the spot contradiction is gradually resolved. The copper price may return to macro trading in the next stage, and the negotiation of reciprocal tariffs between China and the US will also disrupt the copper price. The main contract should focus on the support level of 78,000 [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, the short - term price is supported by supply tightness expectations, but the high - capacity operation and market surplus situation remain. The price of the main contract is expected to fluctuate widely between 2,950 - 3,250 this week. For aluminum, the current price is high, but under the pressure of inventory accumulation expectations, weakening demand, and macro uncertainties, the price of the main contract is expected to face pressure in the short term, with a reference range of 20,000 - 20,800 this week [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The recycled aluminum market maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand, with more prominent demand - side contradictions. The subsequent weak demand will continue to suppress price increases. The disk is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract operating between 19,400 - 20,200 [4]. Zinc - The supply of zinc ore is expected to remain loose, but the increase in domestic mine production in June fell short of expectations, providing price support. The supply of refined zinc is expected to be loose, while the demand has weakened marginally. In the medium - to - long - term, a bearish view is maintained, with the main contract reference range of 21,500 - 23,000 [8]. Nickel - Macro uncertainties increase, and the nickel fundamentals change little. The cost support for refined nickel has loosened, and the medium - term supply is expected to remain loose, restricting the upside of prices. The short - term disk is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 126,000 [11]. Tin - The actual supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is expected to be weak. In the short term, the macro situation is volatile. It is recommended to hold existing short positions from previous highs and pay attention to US tariff changes [14]. Stainless Steel - There are macro uncertainties, and the fundamentals still face pressure. The low - level ferronickel price weakens cost support, the supply - side production cuts fall short of expectations, and the overall demand is weak. The short - term disk is expected to fluctuate, with the main contract reference range of 12,500 - 13,000 [16]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term fundamentals still face pressure, and the surplus may increase. The disk is in a game between sentiment and fundamentals. The short - term disk is expected to run in a relatively strong range, with the main contract reference range of 63,000 - 68,000, but there is still downward pressure in the medium term [20]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper dropped to 78,455 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.34%. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium increased by 5 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss improved by 116.4 yuan/ton [1]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum dropped to 20,470 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.54%. The SMM A00 aluminum premium decreased by 70 yuan/ton [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 dropped to 20,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.50% [4]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot dropped to 22,180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.11%. The import profit and loss improved by 200.42 yuan/ton [8]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel dropped to 121,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.33%. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium decreased by 50 yuan/ton [11]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin dropped to 266,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.07%. The import profit and loss decreased by 605.76 yuan/ton [14]. - **Stainless Steel**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased to 12,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.39%. The spot - futures price difference increased by 45 yuan/ton [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased to 64,650 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.41%. The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate as the benchmark) decreased by 1,300 yuan/ton [20]. Fundamental Data - **Copper**: In June, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1349 million tons, a decrease of 0.30%. In May, the electrolytic copper import volume was 253,100 tons, an increase of 1.23% [1]. - **Aluminum**: In June, the alumina production was 7.2581 million tons, a decrease of 0.19%. The electrolytic aluminum production was 3.609 million tons, a decrease of 3.22%. In May, the electrolytic aluminum import volume was 250,500 tons [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In June, the recycled aluminum alloy ingot production was 615,000 tons, an increase of 1.49%. The primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 255,000 tons, a decrease of 2.30%. In May, the un - wrought aluminum alloy ingot import volume was 97,000 tons, an increase of 11.75% [4]. - **Zinc**: In June, the refined zinc production was 585,100 tons, an increase of 6.50%. In May, the refined zinc import volume was 26,700 tons, a decrease of 5.36% [8]. - **Nickel**: In June, China's refined nickel production was 31,800 tons, a decrease of 10.04%. The refined nickel import volume was 19,157 tons, an increase of 116.90% [11]. - **Tin**: In May, the tin ore import volume was 13,449 tons, an increase of 36.39%. The SMM refined tin production was 14,840 tons, a decrease of 2.37% [14]. - **Stainless Steel**: In April (43 companies), the 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production was 1.7133 million tons, a decrease of 3.83%. In May, the stainless steel import volume was 125,100 tons, a decrease of 12.00% [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In June, the lithium carbonate production was 78,090 tons, an increase of 8.34%. The lithium carbonate demand was 93,815 tons, a decrease of 0.15%. In May, the lithium carbonate import volume was 21,146 tons, a decrease of 25.37% [20]. Spread - **Copper**: The 2507 - 2508 spread decreased by 90 yuan/ton, and the 2508 - 2509 spread increased by 20 yuan/ton [1]. - **Aluminum**: The 2507 - 2508 spread decreased by 70 yuan/ton, and the 2508 - 2509 spread decreased by 25 yuan/ton [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The 2511 - 2512 spread increased by 25 yuan/ton, and the 2512 - 2601 spread increased by 15 yuan/ton [4]. - **Zinc**: The 2507 - 2508 spread decreased by 25 yuan/ton, and the 2508 - 2509 spread decreased by 10 yuan/ton [8]. - **Nickel**: The 2508 - 2509 spread decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the 2509 - 2510 spread increased by 40 yuan/ton [11]. - **Tin**: The 2507 - 2508 spread increased by 340 yuan/ton, and the 2508 - 2509 spread increased by 150 yuan/ton [14]. - **Stainless Steel**: The 2508 - 2509 spread decreased by 170 yuan/ton, and the 2509 - 2510 spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The 2508 - 2509 spread remained unchanged, and the 2509 - 2511 spread increased by 120 yuan/ton [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, individual metal ratings include: Copper - "震荡" (Oscillation); Alumina - "震荡" (Oscillation); Aluminum - "短期仓单数量和累库仍需观察，预计价格区间震荡；中长期消费仍有隐忧，视库存和升贴水拐点区间思路偏逢高空" (Short - term: Observe warehouse receipts and inventory accumulation, expect price range - bound oscillation; Medium - to long - term: Consumption has concerns, consider shorting on rallies based on inventory and premium/discount inflection points); Aluminum Alloy - "震荡" (Oscillation); Zinc - "震荡偏弱" (Oscillation with a weak bias); Lead - "震荡" (Oscillation); Nickel - "震荡偏弱" (Oscillation with a weak bias); Stainless Steel - "震荡" (Oscillation); Tin - "震荡" (Oscillation) [1][5][6][9][10][13][14][16][17][20][21] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US tariff game continues, and the expectation of domestic policy stimulus is increasing. Overall, the macro - expectation is volatile, and non - ferrous metals will continue to oscillate. In terms of supply and demand, the supply and demand of basic metals are gradually seasonally loosening, and domestic inventories are gradually rising seasonally. In the short - to medium - term, tariff uncertainty and weakening demand expectations suppress prices, while policy stimulus expectations and supply disruptions support prices. Focus on structural opportunities, cautiously consider short - term long positions in aluminum and tin on dips, and short zinc ingots on rallies. In the long - term, the demand prospects of basic metals are still uncertain, and shorting opportunities on rallies for some varieties with excess or expected excess supply and demand can be considered [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Copper - **Viewpoint**: The time for the US copper tariff to take effect may be advanced, and the price of Shanghai copper is under pressure. - **Logic**: Macroscopically, Trump's claim to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper has led to a significant increase in COMEX copper prices. The US Secretary of Commerce said the tariff may be implemented at the end of the month, weakening the siphon effect on copper in the US and alleviating the tight supply - demand situation in non - US regions, putting pressure on LME and Shanghai copper prices. In terms of supply and demand, copper ore processing fees continue to decline, and raw material supply is still tight. The demand is weakening as the consumption off - season approaches. Domestic and foreign inventories are accumulating again, and the risk of LME squeeze has eased. - **Outlook**: Copper supply constraints still exist, and inventories are at a low level, but demand is marginally weakening, and the US copper tariff is unfavorable to Shanghai copper prices. It is expected to show an oscillatory pattern [5][6] 3.2 Alumina - **Viewpoint**: Market rumors suggest that the mining permit issue has eased, and the alumina futures price has declined. - **Logic**: In the short - to medium - term, there is no shortage of ore, and operating capacity and inventories are gradually rising. The Guinean government's new policies may increase corporate costs and affect the bottom - line expectation of ore prices. - **Outlook**: Cautious reverse arbitrage [6] 3.3 Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: Inventory has significantly accumulated, and aluminum prices have declined under pressure. - **Logic**: The short - term tariff negotiation deadline is postponed, but there is still strong uncertainty. The fundamentals have shown marginal weakening signs, with inventory accumulation, spot discounts, and a decrease in the risk of near - month squeeze. - **Outlook**: Short - term: Observe warehouse receipts and inventory accumulation, expect price range - bound oscillation; Medium - to long - term: Consumption has concerns, consider shorting on rallies based on inventory and premium/discount inflection points [9] 3.4 Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: Demand has entered the off - season, and the futures price has corrected. - **Logic**: Short - term, ADC12 faces a game between strong cost support and weak demand. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, while demand is in the off - season. The price difference between ADC12 and A00 is expected to rise in the future. - **Outlook**: Short - term, ADC12 and ADC12 - A00 oscillate at low levels, following the trend of electrolytic aluminum. There is room for an increase in the future, and cross - variety arbitrage can be considered [10][12] 3.5 Zinc - **Viewpoint**: Supply and demand are in excess, and zinc prices oscillate weakly. - **Logic**: Macroscopically, the prices of black - series products are rebounding. The supply of zinc ore is loosening in the short - term, and smelters' profitability is good. Domestic consumption has entered the traditional off - season, and demand expectations are general. Zinc ingot inventories are accumulating, and the support for zinc prices is weakening. - **Outlook**: In July, zinc ingot production will continue to increase, and downstream demand will enter the off - season. Zinc prices are expected to oscillate weakly [13][14] 3.6 Lead - **Viewpoint**: Cost support is stable, and lead prices oscillate. - **Logic**: In the spot market, the discount has narrowed, and the price difference between primary and recycled lead is stable. On the supply side, the price of scrap batteries has decreased slightly, and the production of recycled lead is at a low level. On the demand side, the off - season has not completely passed, but the start - up rate of lead - acid battery factories is higher than the same period in previous years. - **Outlook**: The US tariff suspension period is postponed to August 1st, but the announced tariffs are high, and the macro - situation is still uncertain. As demand transitions from the off - season to the peak season, the start - up rate of battery factories is recovering. The supply of lead ingots may continue to increase slightly this week. The cost support of recycled lead is stable, and lead prices are expected to oscillate [14][15][16] 3.7 Nickel - **Viewpoint**: Philippine nickel enterprises are increasing nickel ore exports, and nickel prices will oscillate widely in the short - term. - **Logic**: Market sentiment still dominates the market, and the industrial fundamentals are marginally weakening. After the rainy season, the supply of raw materials may loosen. The production of intermediate products has recovered, and the price of nickel salts has slightly declined. The inventory has significantly accumulated, and the upward pressure is significant. - **Outlook**: Philippine nickel enterprises are increasing nickel ore exports to Indonesia. Nickel prices will oscillate widely in the short - term, and long - term trends need further observation [16][17][18] 3.8 Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: Nickel iron prices continue to weaken, and the stainless - steel futures price is running weakly. - **Logic**: Nickel iron and chrome iron prices are weakening. Although the futures price is rising, the improvement in spot trading volume is limited. In terms of supply and demand, stainless - steel production decreased in June but remained at a high level historically. As demand exits the peak season, there is a risk of weakening demand. Inventory has decreased, and the pressure of structural surplus has been alleviated. - **Outlook**: The weakening cost weakens the support for steel prices, but beware of the possibility of an expanded scale of production cuts due to long - term profit compression and policy expectations. The demand side is putting pressure on steel prices as it exits the traditional peak season. Focus on inventory changes and cost changes in the future. Stainless steel is expected to oscillate in the short - term [20] 3.9 Tin - **Viewpoint**: The supply - demand fundamentals are resilient, and tin prices oscillate. - **Logic**: The shortage of domestic tin ore is intensifying, and the replacement of Indonesian refined tin export licenses has brought new supply problems. The supply - demand fundamentals are tightening, strengthening the bottom support for tin prices. However, the impact of the short - term interruption of Indonesian exports may be limited, and the terminal demand for tin will weaken marginally in the second half of the year. - **Outlook**: The tightness of the ore end supports the tin price. Whether the tightness at the ore end can further accelerate the transmission to the ingot end will determine the height of the tin price in July. Tin prices are expected to oscillate [21]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The copper market is affected by the 50% tariff on US copper imports announced by Trump. The US copper inventory is high, and the CL spread does not need to fully price the 50% tariff in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the exemption situation of some countries, and the low inventory in China and LME may rebound in the third quarter [1]. - The aluminum supply increases slightly, the demand is expected to weaken seasonally in July, and the supply and demand are expected to be balanced. The short - term fundamentals are acceptable, and attention should be paid to the demand and low - inventory trading opportunities [1]. - The zinc price fluctuates widely. The supply is expected to increase, the demand is seasonally weak, and there is a risk of a short squeeze in overseas LME inventory. The strategy is to short zinc, hold long - short positions between domestic and overseas markets, and pay attention to positive spreads between months [2]. - The nickel supply is at a high level, the demand is weak, and the inventory situation is mixed. After the cancellation of the Philippine ore export ban plan, the short - term fundamentals are average, and opportunities for the contraction of the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can be continued to be monitored [7]. - The stainless - steel supply has been reduced, the demand is mainly for rigid needs, the cost is stable, and the inventory has increased slightly. The short - term trend is expected to be weak and volatile [11]. - The lead price has a slight correction. The supply and demand are both weak, and the market's peak - season expectation needs to be verified. It is expected to oscillate within the range of 17,100 - 17,500 next week [13]. - The tin price fluctuates widely. The supply may decline slightly, the demand is expected to slow down, and the inventory situation is different at home and abroad. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [15]. - The production of industrial silicon may decline, the supply and demand are expected to shift to destocking, and the price is expected to oscillate if the start - up rate does not recover significantly [19]. - The price of lithium carbonate futures has rebounded from a low level. The short - term supply and demand are both strong, and the absolute price is expected to oscillate, with a downward inflection point depending on significant inventory accumulation [21]. Summary by Metal Copper - The US has imported over 860,000 tons of copper in 2025, filling the annual rigid import gap. The CL spread does not need to fully price the 50% tariff in the short - term [1]. - If South American countries are not exempted from the tariff, it will seriously impact their copper exports, especially Chile and Peru. The logistics of incremental exports to the US may shift to Asia and Europe [1]. - After the tariff is implemented, the copper siphoning and rush - shipping effects in the US will end, and the low inventory in China and LME may rebound in the third quarter [1]. Aluminum - Supply has a slight increase from January to May due to aluminum ingot imports. Demand is expected to weaken seasonally in July, with flat supply and demand [1]. - The short - term fundamentals are acceptable, and attention should be paid to demand and low - inventory trading opportunities [1]. Zinc - In July, domestic TC has increased by 200 yuan/ton compared to June, and imported TC has a slight increase. The zinc ingot output is expected to increase by over 5,000 tons [2]. - Domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas European demand is also weak, but there are some production resistances for some refineries [2]. - Domestic social inventory is rising, and overseas LME inventory has been decreasing since May, with a risk of a short squeeze when the inventory is below 100,000 tons [2]. Nickel - Pure nickel production remains at a high level, and nickel bean imports increased in May. Demand is weak overall, and LME premiums have a slight increase [7]. - Overseas nickel plate inventory is stable, and domestic inventory has a slight decrease. After the cancellation of the Philippine ore export ban plan, short - term fundamentals are average [7]. Stainless Steel - Since late May, some steel mills have reduced production passively. Demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the cost is stable [11]. - Inventory in Xijiao and Foshan has increased slightly, and some exchange warehouse receipts have expired and decreased. The short - term trend is expected to be weak and volatile [11]. Lead - The lead price has a slight correction. The supply side has issues such as low scrap battery recovery and tight raw materials, and the demand side has high battery inventory and weak start - up rates [13]. - The market's peak - season expectation needs to be verified, and it is expected to oscillate within the range of 17,100 - 17,500 next week [13]. Tin - The tin price fluctuates widely. The domestic smelting output may decline slightly in July - August due to low processing fees and upcoming maintenance [15]. - The demand is expected to slow down, with a decline in the growth rate of terminal electronics and photovoltaics. Domestic inventory is rising, and overseas LME inventory is at a low level but showing signs of accumulation [15]. Industrial Silicon - The overall production in July and subsequent months is expected to decline due to the significant reduction in production by Hesheng. The supply and demand are expected to shift to destocking [19]. - The basis has strengthened rapidly, stimulating downstream speculative and restocking sentiment. If the start - up rate does not recover significantly, the price is expected to oscillate [19]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price has rebounded from a low level due to factors such as warehouse receipts, supply - side news, and improved weak - demand expectations [21]. - The short - term supply and demand are both strong, and the absolute price is expected to oscillate, with a downward inflection point depending on significant inventory accumulation [21].

Group 1 - The company expects an upward trend in its operating performance for the period from January 1, 2025, to June 30, 2025 [1] - The preliminary performance forecast indicates that the main products, including tin, copper, and zinc, have seen a year-on-year price increase [3] - The company has actively managed production and operational quality to overcome challenges such as volatile metal prices and tight raw material supply, leading to a year-on-year growth in operating performance [3] Group 2 - The company plans to dispose of certain fixed assets during the reporting period, which is expected to impact the net profit attributable to the parent company by approximately -270 million [3] - The performance forecast has not been audited by an accounting firm and is based on preliminary calculations by the company's finance department [2][4] - The specific financial data will be disclosed in the company's 2025 semi-annual report [4]

Report Overview - Report Title: [Huabao Futures] Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: July 14, 2025 [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For aluminum, due to high macro uncertainty and slight inventory accumulation, prices are expected to move within a range in the short term, and future attention should be paid to news and downstream off - season conditions [11] - For zinc, supply disruptions boost short - term prices, but medium - and long - term supply increases will put upward pressure; attention should be paid to news development [13] - For tin, prices are expected to be slightly stronger in the short term, but the downward pressure will increase in the medium term [14] Section Summaries 01 Non - ferrous Weekly Market Review - **Futures and Spot Prices**: From July 4 to July 11, 2025, copper futures (CU2508) decreased by 1.63%, aluminum futures (AL2508) increased by 0.29%, zinc futures (ZN2508) decreased by 0.13%, tin futures (SN2508) decreased by 1.24%, and nickel futures (NI2508) decreased by 0.72%. Spot copper prices decreased by 2.18%, aluminum by 0.05%, zinc by 1.75%, tin by 0.47%, and nickel by 1.05% [8] 02 This Week's Non - ferrous Market Forecast - **Aluminum** - **Logic**: Last week, aluminum prices fluctuated strongly. Trade tensions increased due to new tariffs, and there was a possibility of Fed rate - cuts. Nationally, the alumina operating rate decreased, and overseas, Guinea imposed shipping requirements on bauxite exports. Alumina inventory increased, and downstream demand was weak [10] - **Viewpoint**: Prices are expected to move within a range in the short term [11] - **Zinc** - **Logic**: Last week, zinc prices fluctuated within a range. Domestic zinc concentrate processing fees were stable, and import fees increased. The zinc ingot import window remained closed. Downstream galvanizing开工率 increased, and zinc inventory rose [13] - **Viewpoint**: Supply disruptions boost short - term prices, but medium - and long - term supply increases will put pressure [13] - **Tin** - **Logic**: Myanmar's supply progress was slower than expected, causing a shortage of raw materials for domestic smelters. Downstream demand showed signs of phased contraction [14] - **Viewpoint**: Slightly stronger in the short term, but downward pressure increases in the medium term [14] 03 Variety Data Aluminum - **Bauxite** - **Price**: Domestic high - grade bauxite in Henan remained unchanged at 640 yuan/ton; low - grade at 570 yuan/ton. Imported bauxite index average price was 73.72 dollars/ton, down 0.58 dollars/ton [18] - **Port Volume**: Bauxite arrival volume was 420.49 million tons, up 8.74 million tons; departure volume was 429.2 million tons, up 18.94 million tons [21] - **Alumina** - **Price and Profit**: Domestic price in Henan was 3150 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton; cost was 2844.4 yuan/ton, down 4.7 yuan/ton; profit in Shanxi was 225.05 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton [24] - **Electrolytic Aluminum** - **Cost and Spread**: Total cost was 16571.68 yuan/ton, up 101.54 yuan/ton; regional spread (Foshan - SMM A00 aluminum) was - 10 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton [26] - **Downstream Processing**:开工率 of aluminum cable, foil, plate, profile, primary and secondary aluminum alloy showed different changes [29][31] - **Inventory**: Various inventory data, including保税区, social, and exchange inventories, showed different trends [36][37] - **Spot and Basis**: Different basis data for SMM A00 aluminum and SMM A00 aluminum in Foshan changed [42][45] - **Inter - month Spread**: The spread between different months of Shanghai aluminum futures changed [46] Zinc - **Zinc Concentrate** - **Price and Processing Fee**: Domestic zinc concentrate price was 17088 yuan/metal ton, up 16 yuan/metal ton; domestic processing fee was 3800 yuan/metal ton, unchanged; import processing fee was 66.25 dollars/dry ton, up 1 dollar/dry ton [50] - **Profit, Import Profit and Loss, and Inventory**: Production profit was 4088 yuan/metal ton, up 16 yuan/metal ton; import loss was 864.57 yuan/ton, down 152.17 yuan/ton; import zinc concentrate inventory in Lianyungang was 80,000 physical tons, down 10,000 tons [55] - **Refined Zinc** - **Inventory**: Various inventory data, including social,保税区, and exchange inventories, showed different trends [58] - **Galvanizing** - **Production,开工率, and Inventory**: Production was 345,545 tons, up 19,495 tons;开工率 was 58.29%, up 1.81%; raw material inventory was 14,370 tons, up 1,110 tons; finished product inventory was 341,700 tons, up 9,300 tons [61] - **Zinc Basis and Inter - month Spread**: Different basis and spread data changed [64][68] Tin - **Refined Tin** - **Production and开工率**: Yunnan and Jiangxi's combined production was 0.262 million tons, up 0.05 million tons;开工率 was 54.07%, up 1.03% [72] - **Tin Ingot** - **Inventory**: SHFE tin ingot inventory was 7097 tons, down 101 tons; social inventory was 9644 tons, down 110 tons [75] - **Tin Concentrate** - **Processing Fee**: Processing fees in different regions remained unchanged but were lower year - on - year [77] - **Import Profit and Loss**: Import profit was 12005.23 yuan/ton, down 2059.74 yuan/ton [78] - **Spot Price**: Spot prices of tin concentrates in different regions decreased by 600 yuan/ton [82]

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