1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On August 14, 2025, the 2511 contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 0.28% to 85,300 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 82,000 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate rose by 950 yuan/ton to 79,750 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) increased by 1,050 yuan/ton to 73,040 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 260 tons to 21,939 tons [3]. - In terms of supply, the weekly output increased by 424 tons to 19,980 tons. It is expected that the supply in August will increase by 3% to 84,200 tons. In terms of demand, the lithium consumption of two major cathode materials in August is expected to increase by 8% to 86,000 tons of LCE. In terms of inventory, the total social inventory decreased by 162 tons to 142,256 tons, with upstream destocking and restocking in other and downstream sectors [3]. - Against the background of anti - involution and sustained demand, short - term production suspension has boosted market sentiment. There is a risk of correction after the previous rapid rise, and the market may fluctuate in the short term. The production suspension of mines can adjust the supply - demand balance of lithium resources, but the suspension period needs attention. As prices rise, some enterprises may resume production, and overseas imports are expected to increase. Future focus should be on actual lithium salt supply, overseas import increments, terminal customer supply, and potential issues with other mining licenses [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract was 85,300 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the continuous contract was 73,480 yuan/ton, down 9,140 yuan [5]. - Lithium ore: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 937 US dollars/ton, up 11 US dollars; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 1,300 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 2,075 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan [5]. - Lithium salts and other products: Various lithium salts, lithium hydroxides, and other product prices showed different degrees of increase or remained stable, and there were also corresponding changes in price differences [5]. 3. Chart Analysis 3.1 Ore Prices - Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%), and lithium phosphate - aluminum ore (6% - 7%) from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. 3.2 Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices - Charts present the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide price, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price from 2024 to 2025 [11][13][15]. 3.3 Price Differences - Charts display the price differences between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF Japan - South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide, etc., from 2024 to 2025 [18][19][21]. 3.4 Precursor & Cathode Materials - Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors and ternary materials, as well as the price trends of lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and lithium cobalt oxide from 2024 to 2025 [23][26][29]. 3.5 Lithium Battery Prices - Charts present the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, lithium cobalt oxide cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [31][33]. 3.6 Inventory - Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other sectors from December 2024 to August 2025 [35][37]. 3.7 Production Costs - Charts display the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉,外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉,外购锂云母精矿, and外购锂辉石精矿 from 2024 to 2025 [39][40].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the ongoing "anti-involution" policies and price regulation are accelerating industry clearing and technological iteration, which is expected to enhance market concentration [1] - Recent policies from the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation have established standards for identifying unfair pricing behaviors, aiming to regulate market pricing order and combat "involution-style" competition [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasizes the need to consolidate the results of comprehensive rectification of "involution-style" competition in the new energy vehicle industry and strengthen governance in key sectors like photovoltaics [1] Group 2 - With the continuous intensification of policies, leading companies with cost and technological advantages are expected to see significant profit elasticity, indicating a potential profit turning point for the lithium battery industry [1] - The Guotai New Energy ETF (159387) tracks the Innovation Energy Index (399266), which can experience daily fluctuations of up to 20%, focusing on companies involved in solar energy, wind energy, electric vehicles, and related industries [1] - The index selects listed companies with high growth potential and innovation capabilities to reflect the overall performance of securities in the clean energy technology sector [1]

近期，宁德时代位于宜春的锂云母矿——枧下窝矿区停产，此事引发业界热议。普遍的关注点在于，矿区是短期停产还是长期停产？ 每经记者｜孔泽思 张宝莲 朱成祥 每经编辑｜文多 8月12日，《每日经济新闻》记者来到枧下窝矿区附近，只见不少山体都以"绿布"覆盖。整个下午，记者仅见到一台挖掘机在作业，矿区显得异常安静，进 入矿区的双车道路面干净整洁。 原标题：碳酸锂供需是否逆转？实探宁德时代宜春锂矿：矿区只剩值守人员，何时复工不清楚 实探枧下窝矿区：已经停工 当下，碳酸锂主要来源为锂辉石型和盐湖型锂矿。而在中国本土锂矿中，锂云母型锂矿仍占据很大比例。而枧下窝矿区，又是宁德时代最大的锂云母矿。由 此可见，该矿区的一举一动对锂云母市场乃至碳酸锂市场影响深远。 枧下窝矿区位于江西省宜春市的宜丰县和奉新县交界处，这里目前是宜春市产能最大的锂云母矿之一。从山下远远望去，开采中的丘陵露出灰褐色肌肤，山 体一侧建起"钢铁长龙"，矿石传送带在群山中绵延，输送到数公里外的"奉新资源"选矿厂。 枧下窝矿区附近的矿石传送带 图片来源：每经记者 孔泽思 摄 不过，自8月10日起，枧下窝矿区出现了久违的宁静，从这天开始，宁德时代枧下窝矿区正式停产， ...

Core Insights - The Zaozhuang High-tech Zone lithium battery industrial park has established a complete industrial chain, allowing companies to access all necessary suppliers within a 15-minute drive, enhancing operational efficiency [2][4] - The park is a key engine for the city's lithium battery industry, encompassing upstream materials, midstream battery cells, and downstream applications [2][3] - The industrial energy storage cabinet developed by Shenzhou Xingheng can store 235 kWh and offers both grid-connected and off-grid functionalities, indicating a shift in energy storage from a cost center to a profit-generating asset [2][3] Company Developments - Shandong Yaoqian Electronic Technology focuses on small and medium-sized power lithium batteries and energy storage systems, benefiting from a tailored support system that helps companies expand into international markets [3] - Ding Teng New Energy, a joint venture, is addressing safety and low-temperature performance issues in sodium-ion batteries, achieving over 70% discharge at -40°C and over 50% at -50°C, with a cycle life exceeding 6000 times [3][4] - The Zaozhuang High-tech Zone lithium battery industrial park hosts both leading enterprises with over 1 billion yuan in output and emerging companies, fostering a diverse ecosystem [3][4] Strategic Initiatives - The park's strategy focuses on precise investment to strengthen the industrial chain, including attracting both major players and supporting enterprises to create a complete lithium battery ecosystem [4] - Future initiatives will include mapping the lithium battery industry, chain-based investment targeting upstream and downstream partners, and providing dedicated support for each company to enhance their growth [4]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that CATL's lithium mica mine in Yichun has ceased operations since August 10, which raises questions about the supply-demand dynamics of lithium carbonate [1] - CATL is currently processing an application for the renewal of its mining license, stating that the impact on overall operations is minimal [1] - In contrast, Guoxuan High-Tech's lithium mica mine in Yichun remains operational, indicating a disparity in production activities between the two companies [1] Group 2 - The media platform "True Lithium Research" suggests that without a significant reduction in actual production capacity, the supply-demand gap for lithium resources will continue to widen, leading to a situation where supply growth slightly outpaces demand growth [1] - It is anticipated that lithium prices will decline until a significant reversal in supply-demand dynamics occurs, specifically when supply is substantially lower than demand, which would signal a true price turning point [1]

每经记者｜孔泽思 张宝莲 朱成祥 每经编辑｜文多 近期，宁德时代位于宜春的锂云母矿——枧下窝矿区停产，此事引发业界热议。普遍的关注点在于，矿区是短期停产还是长期停产？ 8月12日，《每日经济新闻》记者来到枧下窝矿区附近，只见不少山体都以"绿布"覆盖。整个下午，记者仅见到一台挖掘机在作业，矿区显得异常安静，进 入矿区的双车道路面干净整洁。 实探枧下窝矿区：已经停工 宁德时代表示，公司目前正按相关规定尽快办理采矿证延续申请，待获得批复后将尽早恢复生产。公司同时强调，此事对公司整体经营影响不大。 8月12日，枧下窝矿区已停工 图片来源：每经记者 孔泽思 摄 当下，碳酸锂主要来源为锂辉石型和盐湖型锂矿。而在中国本土锂矿中，锂云母型锂矿仍占据很大比例。而枧下窝矿区，又是宁德时代最大的锂云母矿。由 此可见，该矿区的一举一动对锂云母市场乃至碳酸锂市场影响深远。 枧下窝矿区位于江西省宜春市的宜丰县和奉新县交界处，这里目前是宜春市产能最大的锂云母矿之一。从山下远远望去，开采中的丘陵露出灰褐色肌肤，山 体一侧建起"钢铁长龙"，矿石传送带在群山中绵延，输送到数公里外的"奉新资源"选矿厂。 枧下窝矿区附近的矿石传送带 图片来源：每经 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the strong economic performance of Jingmen, with a GDP growth of 7.3% in the first half of the year, ranking second in the province, and outlines a strategic plan for high-quality development [1][2] Economic Performance - Jingmen's economic indicators show robust growth, with major metrics such as industrial added value, fixed asset investment, retail sales, import and export totals, and public budget revenue all exceeding last year's figures and outperforming the provincial average [2] Development Strategy - The city focuses on four types of collaboration to activate development momentum: - **Transportation Collaboration**: Establishing a transportation network through high-speed rail and port development to enhance logistics [3] - **Industrial Collaboration**: Targeting modern industrial clusters in lithium batteries, automotive, and green chemicals, and creating national-level industrial zones [3] - **Innovation Collaboration**: Integrating with the regional innovation ecosystem to foster technological advancements [3] - **Ecological Collaboration**: Implementing water resource projects to protect the environment [4] Growth Objectives - Jingmen aims to achieve six major breakthroughs to strengthen its economic position, including: - **Total Economic Growth**: Targeting an economic total exceeding 400 billion by 2030 [5] - **Industrial Expansion**: Enhancing both scale and quality of key industries [6] - **County Development**: Stimulating economic activity in county regions [7] - **Urban Renewal**: Improving urban functionality and quality [8] - **Ecological Quality**: Balancing ecological protection with economic growth [9] - **Living Standards**: Ensuring development benefits the population [10] Population Strategy - The "Population First Strategy" aims to increase the urban population by 50,000 annually, reaching 1 million by 2030, supported by policies in fertility, housing, and education [11]

Report Summary 1. Market Logic and Trading Strategies Carbonate Lithium - **Market Logic**: On Wednesday, the SMM battery - grade carbonate lithium index price was 80,946 yuan/ton, up 2,822 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Most enterprises were in a wait - and - see mood, but due to some downstream enterprises' rigid procurement needs and the upstream and traders' reluctance to sell, the transaction price of carbonate lithium spot continued to rise significantly. Last week, the output of carbonate lithium was 19,556 tons, an increase of 2,288 tons from the previous week. Since mid - July, there have been news disturbances in lithium production, increasing concerns about the production stability of Yichun lithium mica mines. The total sample inventory last week was 142,418 tons, rising 692 tons from the previous week. In the long - term, the demand growth rate of new energy vehicles is gradually declining as the penetration rate exceeds 50% [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price fluctuates in the short - term. Upstream and downstream enterprises are advised to seize hedging opportunities according to their own risk management needs. The support for the main contract is 75,000 - 80,000 yuan, and the resistance is 88,000 - 90,000 yuan [4]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Logic**: Driven by profits, the main production areas resumed production last week, with the operating rate significantly increasing. Thanks to the synchronous resumption of downstream polysilicon production and rising procurement demand, the inventory of industrial silicon manufacturers decreased slowly. However, the market speculative sentiment is relatively cautious, and the acceptance of high - price goods is still low. It is expected that the spot price of industrial silicon will remain stable in the short - term, and the futures trend may be more guided by news [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is limited, but the high - level inventory still suppresses the price. Policy support exists, and the anti - involution sentiment may fluctuate. It is recommended to go long at low prices or sell slightly out - of - the - money put options on dips. The support interval is 8,200 - 8,300 yuan, and the resistance interval is 9,200 - 9,300 yuan [6]. Polysilicon - **Market Logic**: There are rumors that the industry may reach a consensus on joint production cuts to control the output in August and promote the return of the total inventory to a reasonable range. If true, it may lead to large - scale inventory reduction. However, the terminal demand is still weak, and the upside space for prices is limited. The futures price has a large premium over the spot price, and the increasing warehouse receipts also put pressure on the market. It is expected that the polysilicon market will fluctuate widely at a high level [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Existing long positions can be partially liquidated at high prices, and short put options sold at low prices can be hedged at high prices. The support level for the main contract is 47,000 - 48,000 yuan, and the resistance level is 55,000 - 56,000 yuan [7]. 2. Plate Strategy Recommendation and Spot - Futures Price Changes Plate Strategy Recommendation | Variety | Market Logic | Support Level | Resistance Level | Market Judgment | Reference Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Carbonate Lithium 09 | Driven by news | 65,000 - 66,000 yuan | 78,000 - 83,000 yuan | Oscillate strongly | Seize selling hedging opportunities, downstream cathode material enterprises focus on low - level stockpiling or buying hedging [13] | | Industrial Silicon 09 | Driven by news | 8,200 - 8,300 yuan | 9,200 - 9,300 yuan | Fluctuate widely | Sell put options on dips [13] | | Polysilicon 09 | Driven by news | 45,000 - 46,000 yuan | 55,000 - 56,000 yuan | Oscillate at a high level | Sell put options on dips [13] | Spot - Futures Price Changes | Variety | Closing Price | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | Warehouse Receipts | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Carbonate Lithium | 85,100 yuan | 3.13% | 1,245,424 | 392,675 | 35,677 | 21,679 | | Industrial Silicon | 8,600 yuan | - 2.71% | 510,280 | 284,500 | 5,640 | 50,701 | | Polysilicon | 51,290 yuan | - 2.11% | 395,645 | 132,463 | - 3,592 | 5,150 | [13] | 3. Fundamental Data Carbonate Lithium - **Production and Inventory**: Last week, the output of carbonate lithium increased, and the inventory resumed its upward trend after a brief decline. The concentrated restocking on the demand side was remarkable, and the market's concern about supply stability is expected to support the lithium price [3]. - **Downstream**: Although the "two new" policies continue to support, the demand growth rate of new energy vehicles is gradually declining as the penetration rate exceeds 50% [3]. Industrial Silicon - **Production and Inventory**: The main production areas increased production last week, and the inventory of manufacturers decreased slowly due to the increase in downstream demand [5]. - **Downstream**: The downstream polysilicon industry resumed production, and the procurement demand increased [5]. Polysilicon - **Production and Inventory**: There are rumors of joint production cuts. If true, it may lead to inventory reduction. The terminal demand is weak, and the upside space for prices is limited [7]. - **Downstream**: The downstream demand has not weakened in the short - term, but the domestic demand may decline after the overseas policy window closes in the fourth quarter [7].

Core Viewpoint - The concept of "anti-involution" has become a necessary response for sustainable industry development, as the negative impacts of "involution" have become increasingly evident across various sectors, including automotive, photovoltaic, lithium battery, steel, and cement industries [1][2]. Group 1: Automotive Industry - The automotive industry is particularly affected by "involution," with a profit margin of only 3.9% in Q1 this year, and a net operating cash flow of -2.376 billion yuan among eight listed passenger car companies, marking a five-year low [3]. - The China Automobile Industry Association issued an urgent call against bottomless price wars, and regulatory bodies have prohibited high-interest automotive finance practices to promote rational business operations [3]. - The industry is expected to undergo consolidation, with weaker companies likely exiting the market, reshaping the competitive landscape as a means to combat "involution" [6]. Group 2: Photovoltaic Industry - The photovoltaic sector is facing severe challenges, with total revenue for 64 listed companies projected at 931.096 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 22.4%, and a shift from a profit of 104.955 billion yuan in 2023 to a loss of 29.757 billion yuan in 2024 [3]. - Leading companies like Trina Solar and LONGi Green Energy are focusing on accelerating the commercialization of high-efficiency products and responding to the construction of a unified national market [3][4]. Group 3: Lithium Battery Industry - The lithium battery sector is experiencing a downturn after rapid capacity expansion, with 65 out of 104 listed companies expected to see a decline in net profits, and over 60 companies facing a year-on-year decrease in gross margins [4]. - Some companies are adjusting their expansion plans in response to market conditions, with notable projects being halted [4]. - The industry is also facing challenges in capacity clearance, with experts suggesting that the ultimate solution lies in the bankruptcy or restructuring of inefficient enterprises [7]. Group 4: Industry-Wide Responses - Various industries are signaling a move towards "anti-involution" by optimizing capacity and releasing production cuts [6]. - The photovoltaic sector is identified as having a critical window for supply-side reform between late 2025 and early 2026, necessitating market-driven mergers and technological elimination of outdated capacities [6]. - The automotive industry is also expected to see a shift towards value-driven competition, focusing on differentiated high-quality products and services to meet diverse market demands [9]. Group 5: Technological Innovation - Technological innovation is viewed as a proactive approach to counter "involution," with a shift from low-price competition to high-end differentiation being essential for improving profitability [9]. - Companies in the lithium battery sector are competing through technological advancements to create unique products and establish competitive advantages [9]. - The CEO of Lantu Automotive emphasizes the importance of continuous value creation for society and users through innovation and efficiency improvements [10].

Group 1: Polysilicon Market - The overall transaction price of polysilicon has slightly increased this week, despite a slight decrease in transaction volume [1] - The number of signing companies has risen to six, with some maintaining prices while others have increased prices by 1 yuan/kg [1] - The price increase is attributed to significant signing volumes from leading companies and a notable reduction in inventory levels [1] Group 2: Natural Gas Storage - The YU37 gas storage facility in Yulin, Shaanxi, has officially commenced operations, marking the largest strategic gas storage in Central and Western China [2] - The facility has a total design capacity of 9.72 billion cubic meters and can inject up to 17 million cubic meters of gas daily during off-peak seasons [2] - This project is crucial for ensuring natural gas supply in the region, particularly for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area and 60 million households in Shaanxi [2] Group 3: Jiangte Electric - Jiangte Electric has announced that it holds multiple mining and exploration rights in the Yichun area, with lithium resources exceeding 100 million tons [3] - The Qikeng lithium mine is the most significant, with a reported resource reserve of 72.93 million tons at an average Li2O grade of 0.44% [3] - The company's resource advantages in the lithium battery sector are expected to positively impact its long-term development [3]