杰富瑞：将高盛(GS.N)目标价从597美元上调至801美元。 ...

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) is currently trading at approximately 0.6517 against the US dollar (USD), reflecting a 0.41% increase from the previous close of 0.6490 [1] - Goldman Sachs predicts that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in July, bringing the cash rate down to 3.60%, with a terminal rate expected to reach 3.10% by November [1] - The market has fully priced in the expectation of a rate cut in July, with further cuts anticipated in August and November due to weak GDP data and slowing private demand [1] Group 2 - The AUD/USD pair is currently showing a downward trend after breaking below the resistance level of 0.6525, which has now turned into a resistance again [2] - As long as the AUD/USD remains within the range of 0.6360 (support) and 0.6525 (resistance), a sideways consolidation view is maintained [2] - A clear break below the 0.6360 support level would shift the outlook to bearish, targeting the next support level at 0.6225 [2]

Core Insights - The 2025 Financial Markets Connectivity Summit hosted by LSEG gathered over 400 leaders and innovators from the financial ecosystem to discuss pressing issues in finance and technology [1] Group 1: Customer Experience Transformation - The summit opened with a keynote by Nej D'Jelal, emphasizing the revolutionary enhancement of customer experience in financial services [2] - AI is becoming a core component of financial workflows, enabling smarter, faster, and more autonomous decision-making across front, middle, and back offices [4] - The importance of interoperability, cloud infrastructure, and engineering mindset is highlighted as essential for building scalable and integrated systems [4] Group 2: AI and Automation in Financial Services - A roundtable discussion featured experts discussing how AI and automation are reshaping customer engagement in financial services [5] - The need for interoperable platforms was emphasized to ensure seamless workflows and reduce barriers in customer interactions [5] - Companies are moving towards intent-driven experiences where AI can anticipate customer needs and provide personalized insights in real-time [5] Group 3: AI Adoption in Investment Banking - A discussion focused on how banks and fintech companies can collaborate to integrate AI into daily workflows for investment bankers [8] - The shift from open prompt models to customizable, context-aware AI agents is noted, enhancing productivity and providing targeted insights [8] - The use of quantifiable metrics to track AI's impact on trading execution, research analysis, and customer service is becoming increasingly common [8] Group 4: Data and Relationships in Trading - A roundtable led by David Rickard explored the dynamic role of data and relationships in an increasingly automated trading environment [11] - Despite the acceleration of AI and electronic trading, the importance of trustworthy relationships and market intuition remains critical [11] - Recent market dynamics, including macroeconomic uncertainties and the rise of portfolio trading, were discussed, along with strategies companies are adopting to stay competitive [11] Group 5: The Role of AI in Economic Transformation - Andrew Busch's keynote highlighted the accelerating role of AI in driving real economic change, emphasizing that generative AI is already delivering tangible benefits [13] - Companies that can interpret macro signals in real-time will gain a competitive advantage in the evolving financial landscape [13] Group 6: LSEG Workspace Experience - Attendees experienced the LSEG Workspace, developed in collaboration with EPAM Systems, designed to meet the growing demands of financial professionals [16] - The platform integrates LSEG's premium content, advanced analytical tools, and efficient collaboration features, addressing inefficiencies caused by fragmented systems [16] - LSEG Workspace aims to enhance productivity, clarity of information, and collaboration in the financial services sector [16]

高盛在周一晚间发布的研报中明确表示，鉴于美联储降息预期提前且幅度加深，同时大盘股基本面持续强劲，已上调标普 500 指数三个月、六个月和十二个 月的回报预期。具体来看，该行将标普 500 三个月回报预期上调至 3%，对应指数水平 6400 点；六个月回报预期上调至 6%，对应年底目标价 6600 点，较 此前预期的 6100 点有大幅提升；十二个月回报预期则被上调至 11%，对应标普 500 指数水平 6900 点。目前，标普 500 指数在 6230 水平附近波动，这意味 着按照高盛的预期，未来各期限都有可观的上涨空间。 从美联储的降息路径来看，高盛预计其不会在 7 月 FOMC 会议上降息，2025 年 9 月、10 月和 12 月将分别降息 25 个基点，2026 年 3 月和 6 月将分别再降 息 25 个基点。Mericle 表示，如果降息的动机之一是预防性措施，那么连续会议上采取行动是最自然的选择。此外，就业市场也出现了趋弱的迹象，David Mericle 在报告中写道："虽然劳动力市场整体看起来依然健康，但现在找工作变得更难。" 数据中的季节性残留效应和移民政策的变化，也在短期内对就业 数据构 ...

华尔街知名投行高盛对美股前景愈发乐观，大幅上调标普500指数多个期限的目标价位。 华尔街见闻今日稍早前的文章写道，高盛研究部门的经济学家在最新的一份报告中表示，美联储可能会 在9月降息，这比此前高盛预测的时间提前了三个月。高盛首席美国经济学家David Mericle表示，9月降 息的可能性略高于50%。 高盛调整降息预测的原因是：初步迹象显示，今年关税政策的影响略低于预期，而其他通胀缓解因素则 比预期更强。此外，美联储高层也可能认同高盛经济学家的看法，即关税对物价水平的影响将是一次性 的。 据高盛在周一晚间发布的研报认为，美联储降息预期提前且幅度加深，叠加大盘股基本面持续强劲，已 上调标普500指数三个月、六个月和十二个月的回报预期。 研报显示，该行将标普500三个月回报预期上调至3%，对应指数水平6400点。六个月回报预期上调至 6%，对应年底目标价6600点，较此前预期的6100点大幅提升。十二个月回报预期则被上调至11%，对 应标普500指数水平6900点。 另外，就业市场也出现了趋弱的迹象。David Mericle在报告中写道："虽然劳动力市场整体看起来依然 健康，但现在找工作变得更难。"数据中的 ...

日本即将迎来两大关键风险事件——7月9日对等关税大限到期、7月20日参议院选举。 据追风交易台消息，摩根士丹利发布最新研报指出，短期内，这两大事件是影响日元和日债收益率波动的催化剂。 据央视新闻，当地时间6日，日本首相称不会在日美贸易谈判中轻易妥协。大摩指出，若美日贸易谈判破裂，对等关税提高，这 会加剧对全球经济增长的担忧，引发避险模式，进而推高日元。因此，摩根士丹利建议维持做空美元/日元，目标价135，止损位 151。 随后市场将目光汇聚在7月20日日本参议院选举。若执政党失利，市场会预期更激进的财政刺激，这会推高日本超长期国债收益 率。 7月9日逼近，贸易谈判破裂将推高日元 摩根士丹利强调，短期内风险事件是7月9日"对等关税"暂缓期的最后期限。 目前美国和日本的谈判陷入僵局，主要卡在汽车关税问题上。据央视新闻，特朗普还威胁称，如果谈不成，日本的对等关税总税 率可能从24%提高到30%-35%。 不过，摩根士丹利指出，许多市场参与者对关税问题持相对乐观态度，认为7月9日的期限可能会延长，最终谈妥的关税税率不会 高于目前水平。 例如，6月中旬QUICK外汇月度调查显示，近一半受访者认为7月9日前会宣布一项政策 ...

巴克莱：泰国央行或保留货币政策空间，2025年通胀预测面临下行风险 摩根士丹利：美国经济前景受关税影响，GDP增长放缓但未至衰退 高盛预测显示，欧佩克+的八个成员国将在9月份进一步将生产配额提高55万桶／日。这些增产措施表 明，在当前全球石油需求强劲的情况下，欧佩克+正致力于实现其产能正常化，并预期石油市场的供需 将进一步达到平衡。欧佩克+加快供应增长增强了对其长期市场平衡预测的信心，这一转变有助于提升 组织内部的凝聚力，并战略性地限制美国页岩油的供应。 摩根士丹利表示，预计2025/2026年四季度同比GDP增长约为1%，虽然不至于衰退，但较去年更为疲 软。关税仍然是美国市场前景评估的关键因素。更加激进的关税路径将强化市场对美国经济前景风险偏 向下行的观点。 德勤调查显示，英国企业高管对美国作为投资目的地的兴趣显著降低，净平衡比例从2024年底的+59% 降至当前的+2%。美国官方数据显示2025年初外国直接投资大幅下跌，这与美国政府的关税计划带来的 不确定性有关。英国企业高管对本国市场的兴趣有所提升，英国的投资吸引力净平衡比例由-12%升至 13%，成为最具吸引力的投资目的地之一。 荷兰国际集团分析师指出 ...

于是，我认真研读那位朋友的转发链接，并大致厘清了他所谓的"提示黄金风险"。 原来，近期高盛在一份报告提到，鸽派预期与风险缓和（地缘政治风险降温、贸易谈判取得进展）等因 素，将共同创造一个 "金发姑娘"（Goldilocks）式的宏观背景 。而所谓"金发姑娘"式的宏观背景，指的是 经济适度增长（不过热），通胀温和（不过高），足以让央行保持宽松的环境。 这一轮黄金的强势走势，让小编身边多出了好多个黄金资产的真爱粉。然而就在上周，其中的一位突然发 消息给我——"国际投行都在提示黄金风险了，金价是不是要跌了？"。 我还没来得及回复，他又火急火燎地把一则题为 " 高盛、花旗集体押注 ' 金发姑娘 ' ！黄金真正的风险出现 了 " 的报道发给了我。 说实话，我的第一反应是困惑，因为不久前我才读过关于"高盛维持黄金价格预测目标"的报道。 无独有偶，花旗也在近期发布的研报中写道，当前市场行情正呈现典型的"金发姑娘"特征。"金发姑娘"通 胀受抑制的环境意味着黄金失去避险吸引力并表现不佳。同时经济增长环境可能推高实际收益率和期限溢 价，抬升增加黄金的持有成本。此外，数据显示在历史"金发姑娘"时期，黄金的风险回报比（夏普比率） 显 ...

Group 1: Economic Impact of the "Big and Beautiful" Act - The "Big and Beautiful" Act is expected to increase national debt by $4.1 trillion by 2034 and result in 11.8 million Americans losing health insurance [4] - The act includes controversial measures such as tax cuts for the wealthy and corporations, cuts to healthcare, and the elimination of clean energy incentives [5][8] - A recent poll indicated that 50% of voters oppose the act, while only 36% support it [5] Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - Despite concerns over increased fiscal deficits, foreign institutions remain optimistic about U.S. equities, with many raising the S&P 500 target to 6,500 points [2][9] - The S&P 500 index reached 6,279.35 points, reflecting a year-to-date increase of over 7% [9] - Factors supporting the bullish sentiment include better-than-expected corporate earnings and a weaker dollar benefiting large tech companies [10] Group 3: Healthcare and Social Implications - The act is projected to cut approximately $900 billion from Medicaid, reversing advancements made during the Biden and Obama administrations [6] - Stricter requirements for Medicaid eligibility may lead to millions losing coverage, with a significant portion of the population opposing these cuts [6][8] Group 4: Clean Energy Sector Concerns - The elimination of clean energy incentives has drawn criticism from industry leaders, with estimates suggesting an increased burden of $4 to $7 billion on the sector [7] - The act has been described as detrimental to future industries while favoring traditional sectors [7] Group 5: Debt and Currency Outlook - Concerns over high debt servicing costs and the potential for rising long-term interest rates have led to a negative sentiment towards U.S. Treasuries [12] - The dollar index has fallen to 96.82, reflecting a loss of all gains since the 2022 rate hike cycle, with the euro appreciating over 10% against the dollar [13][15]

Core Viewpoint - The resurgence of SPACs is noted, with a shift in focus towards sectors like digital currency and artificial intelligence, contrasting with previous trends in delivery apps and electric vehicles [4][6]. Group 1: SPAC Overview - SPACs were popular during the pandemic as a quick wealth-building scheme, where a shell company raises funds and merges with a private company [1][2]. - The process allows investors to either redeem their shares or hold a stake in the merged entity [2]. - While SPACs can be lucrative for the institutions that set them up, they often do not benefit the investors who pay the associated fees [3]. Group 2: Market Trends - In 2022, central banks raised interest rates, leading to a decline in SPAC activity, but 2023 is expected to see a surge in listings [4]. - The current SPAC revival is anticipated to be smaller and more speculative, with a notable influence from the "Make America Great Again" (MAGA) movement [5]. Group 3: Notable Companies and Figures - Twenty One Capital, focused on accumulating Bitcoin, plans to merge with a SPAC associated with Cantor Fitzgerald, recently led by Howard Lutnick [7]. - Trump's involvement in SPACs is highlighted, with his social network Truth Social going public through a SPAC merger [8]. - Other Trump associates are also capitalizing on SPAC opportunities, such as Devin Nunes launching his own SPAC [9]. - GrabAGun, an online gun store, is set to merge with a SPAC operated by Trump ally Omeed Malik, with Donald Trump Jr. joining the board post-transaction [10].