Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the pet supplies sector, AI glasses, and the home improvement market, highlighting potential acquisition opportunities and new product launches [2][6][27]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the resilience of essential consumer goods in the personal care sector, with a notable trend towards domestic brands, particularly during promotional events like the 618 sales [6][14]. - The pet supplies market is experiencing consolidation opportunities, with companies like Tianyuan Pet and Yiyi Co. being recommended for their strong market positions and growth potential [6][7]. - The AI glasses segment is expected to see significant product launches in the latter half of 2025, driven by collaborations between major tech companies [12][20]. - The report highlights the positive impact of government policies on the real estate market, which is anticipated to stabilize and boost related sectors, including home improvement [27][28]. Summary by Sections New Consumer Trends - The report identifies the pet supplies sector as a key area for mergers and acquisitions, recommending companies such as Tianyuan Pet and Yiyi Co. for their strong market presence and growth prospects [6][7]. - AI glasses are positioned for growth with new product launches expected from major players like Google and XREAL, indicating a robust market expansion [12][20]. Personal Care Sector - The personal care market shows resilience, with domestic brands gaining traction, particularly during promotional periods [14]. - Recommended companies in this sector include Baiya Co., Haoyue Care, and Dengkang Oral Care, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing consumer trends [14][15]. Home Improvement and Real Estate - The report notes that government initiatives are likely to support the real estate market, leading to improved conditions for the home improvement sector [27][28]. - Companies like Sophia and Oppein Home are highlighted for their potential to benefit from the anticipated recovery in the housing market [23][27]. Paper Industry - The report mentions a price increase in the paper sector, with expectations for price stabilization due to supply adjustments [25]. - Recommended companies in this space include Sun Paper, which is noted for its integrated operations and cost advantages [25]. Export and Trade - The report discusses the impact of tariff changes on exports, particularly in the light industrial sector, with a focus on companies that have a strong competitive edge [6][20].

Group 1 - Private equity firms have increased their positions in the stock market, with the large-scale private equity position index rising above 80% for the first time in five weeks, indicating a consensus on market recovery [1] - The gold market has seen renewed interest as international gold prices return to $3,300 per ounce, with several gold ETFs experiencing over 5% gains in the past week and significant net inflows [2] - The introduction of ETF-FOF products by various public fund institutions aims to enhance investment efficiency and reduce costs, addressing the challenge of selecting suitable ETFs for investors [3] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China is implementing a "wide monetary" policy by conducting a 500 billion yuan MLF operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system, signaling a commitment to economic stability [4] - Xiaomi is expanding its manufacturing capabilities across multiple sectors, including chips, smartphones, and vehicles, aiming to transition from a cost-effective manufacturer to a leading global technology enterprise [5] - The activity in the M&A market is increasing, with a 7.8% year-on-year rise in the number of exits from M&A transactions in Q1, driven by regulatory changes that encourage venture capital participation [6] Group 3 - The two-wheeler industry is experiencing a surge in demand due to government subsidies for trade-ins, with sales increasing significantly and leading to supply shortages for certain models [7] - Brokerage firms are reducing client margin interest rates to as low as 0.05%, following banks' cuts in deposit rates, indicating a trend towards lower financing costs for investors [8] - The Chinese Institute of Certified Public Accountants has revised its ranking criteria, disallowing firms with serious negative incidents from participating in the annual ranking, which may impact the reputation of accounting firms [9] Group 4 - Local governments are accelerating the use of special bonds for acquiring idle land, with nearly 3,000 plots totaling over 1.33 million square meters announced for acquisition, reflecting a focus on revitalizing the real estate sector [10] - A total of 139 public funds have announced early closure of fundraising this year, with equity funds making up over 50% of these closures, indicating strong investor interest [11] - Insurance companies are increasingly investing in high-dividend assets, particularly bank stocks, as part of a strategy to enhance returns while minimizing profit volatility [12]

发布日期：2025年05月18日 本报告由中信建投证券股份有限公司在中华人民共和国（仅为本报告目的，不包括香港、澳门、台湾）提供。在遵守适用的法律法规情况下，本报告亦可能由中信建投（国际）证券有限公司在香港提供。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款和声明。 证券研究报告行业简评报告 家电板块超额复盘：以沪深300作为业绩基准，家电板块配置价值凸显 分析师：马王杰 mawangjie@csc.com.cn SAC 编号：S1440521070002 分析师：付田行 futianhang@csc.com.cn SAC 编号：S1440524070015 以沪深300作为业绩基准，家电板块配置价值凸显 2 核心观点：复盘过去十年：家电板块在长周期维度中大部分时间段均能明显跑赢沪深300。 即使部分时点受短期因素影响阶段性跑输，但跑输幅度基本控制在10%；而一旦市场风格 与板块自身基本面相配合，板块则会取得非常可观的超额收益，基本都在25%及以上的水 平。整体来看，如果以沪深300作为业绩基准，家电板块无论是从获取超额弹性维度，还 是回撤控制维度均具备极大的配置价值。 投资建议：1）推荐黑电龙头的拐点性机会，海信视像受益于 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the home appliance industry [4] Core Viewpoints - The proportion of actively managed equity funds holding home appliance stocks decreased in Q1 2025, primarily due to a temporary policy gap and consumer concerns leading to preemptive consumption [7][15] - The "old-for-new" policy is expected to expand, alleviating market concerns and boosting domestic demand for home appliances [7][15] - Leading home appliance companies are expanding into emerging markets, which is anticipated to steadily increase export revenues [7][15] - The report highlights the high dividend yield and stable operations of leading companies, indicating strong investment value in home appliance stocks [7][15] Summary by Sections Section 1: Fund Holdings in Home Appliances - The proportion of actively managed equity funds holding home appliance stocks was 5.51% in Q1 2025, down by 0.09 percentage points from the previous quarter [15] - The home appliance sector was over-allocated by 2.99%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points [15] Section 2: Sector Allocation Changes - Funds increased their allocation to the two-wheeler and black appliance sectors, with increases of 0.39 percentage points and 0.04 percentage points, respectively [20] - Conversely, the white appliance and small appliance sectors saw reductions in allocation, with decreases of 0.53 percentage points and 0.01 percentage points [20] Section 3: Key Stocks in Focus - Funds increased their holdings in Ninebot, Yadea, Chunfeng Power, and Hisense Visual, with increases of 0.26 percentage points, 0.04 percentage points, 0.04 percentage points, and 0.05 percentage points, respectively [67][70] - The report suggests that the "old-for-new" policy will continue to stimulate demand and improve product structure in the two-wheeler sector [70] - In the white appliance sector, the report notes a decline in fund holdings for Midea Group, Gree Electric, and Haier Smart Home, with decreases of 0.30 percentage points, 0.20 percentage points, and 0.04 percentage points, respectively [68][69]

Summary of the Conference Call on the Two-Wheeled Vehicle Industry Industry Overview - The two-wheeled vehicle industry is experiencing significant growth, with an overall market growth rate of approximately 30% in May 2025. Specific companies are seeing varied growth rates due to factors such as channel expansion and new product launches [2][3]. Company Performance Yadea - In Q1 2025, Yadea's sales were approximately 4.006 to 4.007 million units, with April sales around 1.388 million units [2][3]. - Yadea's average selling price (ASP) for 2024 is expected to be around 2,200 RMB, with a projected increase of 3% to 5% in 2025 [10][11]. - Yadea's inventory levels are normal, approximately 1.5 to 1.6 months [7]. Aima - Aima's total sales for 2024 are projected to exceed 10.9 million units, with approximately 10.29 million units being two-wheeled vehicles. Quarterly sales are estimated at 2.5 million, 3.1 million, 3.4 million, and 1.8 million units respectively [5]. - Aima is facing structural shortages in inventory, particularly in first and second-tier cities, with inventory levels around 1.2 to 1.3 months [8]. - Aima's ASP for 2024 is expected to be around 2,100 RMB, with a similar increase projected for 2025 [10]. Tailg - Tailg's total sales for 2024 are estimated to be between 7.2 million and 7.3 million units, with quarterly sales of approximately 1.8 million, slightly over 2 million, 2.4 to 2.5 million, and 0.7 to 0.8 million units respectively [6]. - Tailg's sales for 2023 were between 7.8 million and 8 million units [6]. Ninebot - Ninebot's sales in April 2025 were approximately 480,000 to 490,000 units, showing a year-on-year growth of nearly 80% [3]. - Ninebot's ASP for 2024 is projected to be between 2,900 and 3,000 RMB, with a slight increase expected in 2025 [12]. Market Dynamics - The market for products priced above 4,000 RMB is expanding, with approximately 4.5 million units sold in 2024. Ninebot leads this segment with 1.8 to 1.9 million units sold [18]. - The industry is shifting towards higher-end models, driven by subsidies for trade-ins and the introduction of new products [18]. Pricing Strategies - Yadea is adjusting its product pricing strategy, focusing on the 3,300 to 3,600 RMB range while reducing the proportion of models priced below 2,500 RMB [14][15]. - The average selling price for high-end models is expected to be between 3,500 and 3,900 RMB [14]. Inventory and Supply Chain - Yadea's inventory is reported to be at a normal level, while Aima is experiencing structural shortages due to production capacity issues [7][8]. - Ninebot maintains a moderate inventory level, relying on normal retail sales and import/export volumes [9]. R&D and Innovation - Yadea is focusing on integrating smart features into its mid-to-high-end products but has not reached the level of smart development seen in competitors like Ninebot [21]. - The company has established a structured product development cycle of 10 to 12 months for new products and 6 to 8 months for iterations [22][23]. Financial Metrics - Ninebot has a higher average gross margin of 25-26%, while Yadea and Aima have an average gross margin of around 18% [33]. - The gross margin for electric motorcycles varies by model, with high-end models achieving margins over 22% [34]. After-Sales Service - Yadea has approximately 800 to 900 dedicated after-sales service centers, with plans to exceed 1,000 centers this year [42]. - Aima operates 500 to 600 after-sales service centers, while Ninebot has around 150 to 180 [42]. Conclusion - The two-wheeled vehicle industry is poised for growth, with key players adjusting strategies to meet market demands and enhance profitability. The focus on higher-end products and smart features is expected to drive future sales and market share.

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the light industry, particularly in personal care and jewelry sectors, with several companies exceeding expectations in Q1 2025 [3][5][6]. Core Insights - The light industry shows a steady performance, with essential consumer goods outperforming overall trends. Companies like Baiya Co., Haoyue Care, and Chaohongji have reported better-than-expected results in Q1 2025 [3][5][6]. - The two-wheeler and motorcycle sectors are experiencing unexpected growth driven by new national standards and government subsidies, with companies like Ninebot and Chunfeng Power also exceeding expectations in Q1 2025 [3][5][12]. - Export demand remains strong, with product structure improvements and favorable exchange rates supporting profitability for companies like Jiangxin Home and Jiayi Co. in Q1 2025 [3][5][20]. - The home furnishing sector is benefiting from government subsidies, leading to a reduction in revenue decline, with leading companies like Kuka Home and Oppein showing slightly better-than-expected performance in Q1 2025 [3][5][20]. - The packaging industry maintains a stable structure, with leading companies increasing their market share, while metal packaging profitability is slightly under pressure [3][5][20]. - The paper industry has seen a continued decline in profitability in H2 2024, but Q1 2025 shows signs of recovery, with companies like Sun Paper benefiting from integrated supply chain advantages [3][5][20]. Summary by Sections Light Industry - Revenue recovery is evident in Q1 2025, with essential consumer goods showing stronger growth compared to optional and mass consumer goods. The revenue growth rates for essential consumer goods were 20.4% in Q1 2025, while mass consumer goods showed a decline of 0.9% [6][7][10]. - Profitability remains weaker than revenue growth, with net profits for essential consumer goods declining by 49.8% in Q3 2024, but showing a slight recovery of 1.5% in Q1 2025 [7][11]. Two-Wheeler & Motorcycle - The domestic two-wheeler market is benefiting from a transition to new national standards, with revenue growth rates of 50.9% in Q1 2025. Profit margins are improving due to product upgrades and reduced price competition [12][13][14]. - Export performance for motorcycles is also strong, with revenue growth of 32.2% in Q1 2025, driven by seasonal demand and product upgrades [14][19]. Exports - Export demand continues to be robust, with key categories like fitness equipment and insulated cups showing double-digit growth. Companies like Jiayi Co. and Hars have reported significant revenue increases of 67% and 22% respectively in Q1 2025 [20][23]. - The exchange rate has positively impacted export performance, with the USD/CNY exchange rate showing a slight depreciation, benefiting exporters [20][23]. Home Furnishing - The home furnishing sector is experiencing a narrowing of revenue decline due to government subsidies, with leading companies like Kuka Home and Oppein showing slight improvements in Q1 2025 [20][23]. Packaging - The packaging industry remains stable, with leading companies increasing their market share. However, profitability in metal packaging is facing slight pressure due to competitive pricing [20][23]. Paper Industry - The paper industry has faced declining profitability, but Q1 2025 shows signs of recovery, with companies like Sun Paper reporting improved performance due to supply chain advantages [20][23].

Core Insights - The report highlights that the US-China tariff negotiations have exceeded expectations, indicating a potential recovery in trade relations and a favorable environment for market performance in May 2025 [3][5]. - The focus is on growth themes and sectors that are currently underweighted by funds, with particular attention to the potential rebound in the supply chains related to Apple, real estate, and consumer sectors [5]. Summary by Sections Tariff Adjustments - The US plans to modify tariffs on Chinese goods, suspending 24% tariffs for the first 90 days while retaining a 10% tariff. Additionally, certain tariffs imposed on US goods will be canceled [3][5]. - China will reciprocate by suspending similar tariffs on US goods, indicating a potential thaw in the trade conflict [5]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates a "red May," suggesting that external easing expectations are becoming a reality, supported by domestic policies aimed at stabilizing the capital market [5]. - The focus is on growth catalysts and sectors that are currently underrepresented in fund allocations, with a specific emphasis on the potential for rebounds in previously oversold sectors [5]. Sector Focus - Short-term opportunities are identified in the supply chains related to Apple and real estate, which may experience a rebound due to the favorable negotiation outcomes [5]. - Mid-term attention is directed towards manufacturing exports, high-end consumer goods, and cultural services, indicating a strategic shift towards international markets [5].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The new consumption valuation system is being elevated, and expectations for tariff relief in the export chain are strengthening [2] - The report highlights the impact of recent overseas supply disruptions in the paper industry, suggesting that pulp prices may stabilize at low levels [3] - The report discusses the recent "breakthrough" in US-China trade relations, indicating potential for improved tariff negotiations [3] - The new tobacco sector is experiencing robust growth, with Japanese tobacco reporting significant revenue increases [4] - The home furnishing sector is seeing a recovery in orders, particularly in custom furniture, driven by government subsidies and promotional activities [4] - The report notes a positive trend in consumer goods, with several brands launching new products and experiencing sales growth [5] - The packaging industry is performing steadily, with companies like Yongxin and Yutong showing strong growth and profitability [5] - The two-wheeler market is expected to maintain good sales momentum, with new product launches from companies like Ninebot [5] - The gold and jewelry sector is witnessing expansion, with companies like Laopu Gold and Chaohongji opening new stores [5] - The cross-border e-commerce sector is facing challenges due to tariff fluctuations, but some brands continue to show strong growth [5] Summary by Sections Paper Industry - Overseas supply disruptions are frequent, and pulp prices are expected to stabilize [3] - Companies like Sun Paper and Xianhe Co. are highlighted for their potential profit improvements [3] Export Sector - Tariff negotiations between China and the US are progressing, with a notable increase in exports to ASEAN countries [3] - Companies with strong overseas layouts are recommended for investment [3] New Tobacco - Japan Tobacco's new tobacco products are showing impressive growth, with a focus on HNB products [4] - Companies like Smoore International and China Tobacco Hong Kong are noted for their potential [4] Home Furnishing - The sector is recovering with increased orders, particularly in soft furnishings and custom furniture [4] - Key companies to watch include Gujia Home and Mousse [4] Consumer Goods - New product launches are driving sales growth in the consumer sector [5] - Brands like Bubble Mart and Runben are highlighted for their structural growth potential [5] Packaging - Companies like Yongxin and Yutong are performing well, with steady growth and profitability [5] Two-Wheeler Market - Sales are expected to remain strong, with new product launches from Ninebot [5] Gold and Jewelry - Companies like Laopu Gold and Chaohongji are expanding their store presence [5] Cross-Border E-Commerce - Some brands are facing sales slowdowns due to price increases, but others maintain strong growth [5]

Group 1: Macro Insights - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates and emphasized increasing uncertainty, with market expectations for rate cuts in June and July at 20% and 80% respectively, and a total of three cuts expected for the year [4] - The current economic environment presents a dual challenge of stagnation versus inflation, with short-term liquidity crises and long-term recession concerns [4] Group 2: TMT Sector Analysis - The TMT sector shows high levels of crowding, suggesting a cautious approach as the market may continue to favor lower-performing sectors [5] - The industry rotation model indicates that cyclical sectors like non-ferrous metals, steel, food and beverage, and building materials are in a strong trend with low crowding, while TMT remains crowded [5] Group 3: Coal Industry Overview - As of Q1 2025, the coal industry is experiencing a significant downturn, with coal prices returning to levels seen in early 2021, and the average price of Q5500 coal at 657 RMB/ton, down 111 RMB/ton since the beginning of the year [14][15] - The total profit of large coal enterprises in Q1 2025 was 803.8 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 47.7%, with over half of coal companies reporting losses [17] - Major coal companies like China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal have substantial cash reserves, indicating strong dividend-paying capabilities despite the industry's challenges [7][9] Group 4: Media Sector Performance - The media sector showed a significant recovery in Q1 2025, with notable performances in gaming and cinema, and a positive outlook for the year [22] - The film industry, particularly, is expected to benefit from a strong lineup of releases, although some major films underperformed [26] Group 5: Home Appliance and Electric Vehicle Industry - The electric two-wheeler market is expected to see growth driven by brand and channel advantages, with a projected increase in demand primarily from replacement sales [22][23] - The home appliance sector is focusing on expanding smart product offerings and enhancing international market presence, with significant revenue growth reported in smart home products [28] Group 6: Medical and Biopharmaceutical Sector - Companies like Xinhua Medical and Anjisi are showing steady growth, with Xinhua Medical reporting a slight increase in revenue and profit, while Anjisi's revenue grew by 25.14% in 2024 [36][38] - The biopharmaceutical sector is focusing on diversifying revenue streams and expanding into international markets, with significant growth expected in the coming years [35][40] Group 7: Investment Recommendations - Key recommendations include investing in leading coal enterprises like China Shenhua and Zhongmei Energy, as well as companies showing potential for recovery like Qinfa [19][20] - In the media sector, companies with strong content pipelines and market positions are recommended for investment [26]

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