每经记者｜吴永久 每经编辑｜闫峰峰 9月的股市今日收官，整个9月上证指数处于盘整之中，而创业板指和科创50领涨，分别上涨12.04%、11.48%，成为行情的领先指标。在国庆节前两天行 情表现出色，投资者做多情绪上升。回顾9月的行情，存储芯片（包括HBM产业链、内存接口芯片）领涨，板块中诞生了德明利、香农芯创、江波龙、聚 辰股份、协创数据等多只牛股。此外，受益于美元降息周期，白银、有色金属也表现亮丽。 在每日经济新闻App举办的掘金大赛中，第74期比赛于今日结束，虽然大盘反复震荡，但多位选手抓住了机会。其中冠军收益率67.85%，亚军收益率 60.25%，季军收益率59.13%。本期比赛共799名选手取得正收益，他们都将获得现金奖励。 从9月的月度积分王来看，选手"胡楠楠"以16.8分位居第一，选手"没考虑呢"以13分位居第二，选手"你看看你"以13分位居第三。根据比赛规则，当月度 总积分相同时，以当月最后一期比赛的收益率进行排名，前100名选手都将获得现金奖励。 如果您的税前获奖金额超出100元，则需要报税，需获奖用户提供真实姓名、身份证号和手机号等信息以便报税。本期比赛奖励将于10月9日发放，恭喜 大家获 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the sentiment and strategies of private equity funds as they approach the National Day holiday, indicating a generally optimistic outlook for the market post-holiday, with a significant portion of funds choosing to hold high positions in their portfolios [4][6][11]. Group 1: Private Equity Fund Positioning - Over 65% of private equity funds are opting for heavy or full positions during the holiday, believing that external market disturbances will be limited and that domestic fundamentals and policy environments provide a solid safety margin [6][4]. - The overall private equity position index reached 78.41% as of September 19, marking a 0.37 percentage point increase from the previous week and reflecting a trend of increased allocations [6][4]. - The majority of private equity funds are optimistic about the market's performance after the holiday, with 70.19% expecting a gradual recovery driven by policy and capital support [9][4]. Group 2: Investment Focus Areas - The primary investment focus is on technology growth sectors, with 59.62% of private equity funds highlighting areas such as AI, semiconductors, and innovative pharmaceuticals as key opportunities [10][4]. - A significant portion of funds (21.15%) is also looking at the valuation recovery in the new energy and real estate sectors, anticipating that clearer industry policies will provide rebound opportunities [10][4]. - There is a belief that the market will exhibit a balanced style post-holiday, with 62.50% of funds expecting a rotation among technology growth, value blue chips, and leading stocks [9][10]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The sentiment among private equity funds is generally positive, with many viewing the current market as transitioning from the second to the third phase of a bull market [11][12]. - The article notes that historical data shows a greater than 70% probability of market gains following the National Day holiday, supported by liquidity from institutional investments and retail participation [11][12]. - The anticipated "slow bull" market trend suggests that while short-term volatility may occur, the long-term outlook remains favorable, particularly for technology growth sectors [12][11].

今天，传来了"十五五"规划的消息。 据新华社消息，中共中央政治局9月29日召开会议，研究制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规 划重大问题。 实际上，近期，我国陆续推出新一轮十大重点行业稳增长工作方案，明确下一阶段行业增长目标， 并围绕提升供给能力、扩大有效市场、优化发展生态等方面部署一系列举措。 据达哥不完全统计，已经发布稳增长工作方案的行业至少有9个，包括电子信息制造业、电力装 备、汽车、钢铁、有色金属、石化化工、建材、机械、轻工业，涵盖从高端制造到传统原材料的多个关 键领域。 而在政策方面，国家发展改革委政策研究室副主任、新闻发言人李超9月29日表示，当前经济运行 当中依然面临着不少的风险和挑战，外部环境仍然严峻复杂，经济回升向好的基础仍需进一步巩固。下 一步，国家发展改革委将持续发力，适时加力实施宏观政策。 对于"十五五"规划，应聚焦哪些板块？ 银河证券给出了以下四个方向：新质生产力主题、"反内卷"板块、大消费板块、"两重"领域。在新 质生产力主题方面，顺应国家战略、具备真实技术壁垒的科技企业将是"十五五"规划背景下A股投资的 重要主线。 中信建投认为，预计贯穿"十五五"规划的三条重要主线有科技、内需与 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the positioning of private equity funds ahead of the National Day holiday, indicating a general optimism about the market's performance post-holiday, with a significant majority opting for high exposure levels [2][5][6]. Group 1: Private Equity Fund Positioning - Over 65% of private equity funds are choosing to hold heavy or full positions (over 70% exposure) during the holiday, believing that external market disturbances will be limited and that domestic fundamentals and policy environments provide a solid safety margin [5][6]. - 17.31% of private equity funds are adopting a moderately heavy position (50% to 70% exposure), citing the presence of uncertainties during the holiday but still recognizing structural opportunities in individual stocks [5]. - Only 5.77% of private equity funds are opting for light positions (less than 30% exposure), reflecting a cautious stance due to significant market gains prior to the holiday and potential for adjustments post-holiday [5][6]. Group 2: Market Outlook Post-Holiday - 70.19% of private equity funds are optimistic about the A-share market's performance after the holiday, viewing pre-holiday market fluctuations as a consolidation phase, with expectations for gradual recovery driven by policy and capital [8][12]. - 62.50% of private equity funds anticipate a balanced market style post-holiday, with rotations among technology growth, value blue chips, and high-quality stocks [8][9]. - The focus on technology growth remains strong, with 59.62% of private equity funds favoring sectors such as AI, semiconductors, and innovative pharmaceuticals, which are seen as key drivers for future economic transformation [9][12]. Group 3: Investment Strategies and Themes - The article highlights a consensus among private equity funds that the investment focus will remain on technology growth, with 23.08% firmly optimistic about sectors like AI and semiconductors continuing to perform well [9][10]. - 21.15% of private equity funds are looking at the valuation recovery of the new energy and real estate sectors, expecting these low-valuation areas to provide rebound opportunities as industry policies clarify [9][10]. - The article also notes that 14.42% of private equity funds foresee a "high-low switch" in the market, where previously lagging traditional industries and high-dividend blue chips may experience a resurgence [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the mechanical equipment sector, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market [2][10]. Core Insights - The mechanical equipment sector underperformed the CSI 300 index, with a decline of 0.81% compared to the index's increase of 1.07% during the week of September 22-26, 2025 [2][10]. - The textile and apparel equipment sub-sector showed the best performance with a rise of 2.27% [2][10]. - The report highlights the ongoing demand expansion for semiconductor equipment driven by the smart upgrade of consumer electronics [4][28]. - The humanoid robot sector is transitioning from demonstration to scalable deployment, with significant contracts being signed, such as a 30 million yuan deal for industrial humanoid robots [4][28]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the controlled nuclear fusion industry, noting that demand for related equipment is beginning to materialize as the industry moves towards engineering applications [4][28]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The mechanical equipment sector ranked 16th out of 31 in the Shenwan industry rankings, with notable sub-sector performances [2][10]. - The overall PE-TTM for the mechanical equipment sector is reported at 37.6x, with the highest valuations in robotics and automation [18][19]. Key Developments - The report discusses significant advancements in the semiconductor equipment and materials supply chain, including the successful operation of a 12-inch silicon carbide substrate processing line by Jing Sheng Machinery [4][28]. - The report also mentions the delivery of a high-speed storage testing machine by Jing Zhi Da, enhancing its service capabilities in the semiconductor testing market [28]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading robot manufacturers and core component suppliers, as well as companies involved in testing equipment for consumer electronics and semiconductor applications [4][28]. - It identifies specific companies to watch, including Dechang Motor Holdings and Huafeng Measurement Control, for their potential in the evolving market landscape [4][28].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the positioning of private equity funds ahead of the National Day holiday and their outlook for the market post-holiday, indicating a generally optimistic sentiment among private equity managers [2][10]. Group 1: Private Equity Fund Positioning - Over 65% of private equity funds are opting for heavy or full positions during the holiday, believing that external market disturbances will be limited and that domestic fundamentals and policy environments provide a solid safety margin [4][5]. - The stock private equity position index reached 78.41% as of September 19, marking a new high for the year, reflecting a trend of increased positions among private equity funds [4][10]. Group 2: Market Outlook Post-Holiday - Approximately 70.19% of private equity managers hold an optimistic view on the A-share market post-holiday, expecting a gradual recovery driven by policy and capital [6][11]. - 62.50% of private equity funds anticipate a balanced market style post-holiday, with rotation among technology growth, value blue chips, and white horse stocks [7]. Group 3: Investment Focus Areas - 59.62% of private equity funds are focusing on technology growth sectors, particularly AI, semiconductors, humanoid robots, smart driving, and innovative pharmaceuticals, which are seen as key drivers for future economic transformation [7][8]. - 21.15% of private equity funds are optimistic about the valuation recovery in the new energy and real estate sectors, expecting rebound opportunities as industry policies become clearer [7]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Strategies - The article suggests that the current market is in a "slow bull" phase, with expectations of continued structural opportunities in the stock market, particularly in high-growth sectors and stable value stocks [10][11]. - The upcoming third-quarter earnings reports are expected to play a crucial role in determining market rotation, with high-growth stocks and stable value stocks alternating in attracting capital [10].

9月30日，和讯投顾张婧表示，当前的市场节奏是支持持股过节的，朋友至少不会有踏空的感觉，不过 这里有一点值得注意。就是证券虽然拉升了，但是并没有放量，这就导致了对于题材那边的一个虹吸效 应，那证券拉升的时候题材回落，而证券调整的时候，题材那边又回流是一个跷跷板的状态，那当前的 量能确实不太支持证券和题材共振。那么接下来证券助攻大盘指数冲击3900点的过程中，如果一直不放 量的话，可能就真的无法支撑这么多题材进行共振了，那么到底哪个题材能够笑到最后呢？市场上兑现 拉升的是新能源题材，上游材料的力度比直接做电池的要强很多。10月份回来之后10月底是有三季度报 陆续公布的。那么这里除了讲故事，必须要有业绩，那人形机器人题材这边就可以高看一眼了，并且人 性机器人题材这里不太吃大盘指数，也就是说不太吃量能，所以说也会符合接下来市场上的一个环境。 那再一个比较有争议的题材就是半导体这个题材内部的辨识度，无论是出海还是国产替代。今天就是节 前的最后一个交易日了，不牵扯持币和持股的事情了，都是持股的。所以说是乐观的，那对于10月份有 两个事件，大家需要提前做到心里有数，一个就是假期期间美联储这边的一个二次降息。 ...

Market Overview - The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets have shown strong upward trends as the National Day holiday approaches, alleviating previous concerns about a potential significant correction after nearly three months of gains since late June [1] - The current market is believed to be in the second phase of a bull market, following the "924 market" last year, which was initiated by substantial policy support [1] Bull Market Characteristics - The Shanghai Composite Index is nearing the 3900-point mark, indicating a gradually established bull market driven by both policy and capital [2] - Margin trading balances have surpassed 2.4 trillion, a historical high, but the overall leverage ratio remains low compared to the total market capitalization of 100 trillion [2] Sector Performance - The ongoing market rally is characterized as a "technology bull market," with significant focus on sectors such as humanoid robots, chips, semiconductors, and innovative pharmaceuticals, which have become hot topics this year [4] - Traditional industries have shown mixed performance, with sectors like energy storage, lithium batteries, and new energy vehicles experiencing significant gains, while consumer sectors like liquor and food and beverage have lagged due to declining income growth [4] Future Outlook - The current market is still a structurally driven technology bull market, with expectations for a transition to a comprehensive bull market next year as capital flows into the market increase [5] - The depreciation of the US dollar by approximately 10% has led to the appreciation of non-US currencies, enhancing the attractiveness of Chinese assets [6] - International investment banks are increasingly optimistic about Chinese assets, raising target points for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, indicating a potential influx of international capital [6]

Market Performance - The three major indices collectively rose on September 29, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.9%, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 2.05%, and the ChiNext Index up by 2.74% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 21,781 billion yuan, an increase of 120 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - Over 3,500 stocks in the market experienced gains, with sectors such as securities, batteries, non-ferrous metals, and steel leading the gains, while education, pork, coal, and chemical pharmaceuticals saw declines [1] ETF Performance - Major broad-based ETFs saw significant afternoon gains, with the A500 ETF (512050) rising by 1.39% [1] - AI-related ETFs performed well, with the Chip ETF (159995) and AI ETF (515070) both increasing by 1.14% [1] - The 5G Communication ETF (515050) rose by 2.34%, and the ChiNext AI ETF (159381) increased by 1.33%, indicating strong performance in the AI computing hardware supply chain [1] Sector Focus - Recent domestic policies and structural industry trends have garnered attention, with market funds gradually shifting from the computing power sector to other low-valuation growth sectors [1] - The market is expected to maintain a slow bull trend in the medium term, with structural growth sectors becoming key investment opportunities [1] - Key sectors to watch include new energy, humanoid robots, innovative pharmaceuticals, and non-ferrous metals, which are expected to have concentrated catalytic events [1] Earnings Expectations - According to Industrial Securities, industries with upward revisions in profit expectations since September are primarily concentrated in technology, advanced manufacturing, cyclical, consumption, and finance [2] - The third quarter reports will serve as an important window to validate the economic cycle for strong sectors represented by technology and advanced manufacturing [2] - In the technology growth narrative, sectors such as AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new energy have seen trading congestion return to reasonable levels, suggesting a potential focus on growth trends [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the emergence of leading companies in various sectors, such as Tesla, Apple, Nvidia, and OpenAI, which are significantly influencing global industrial patterns and capital markets. The A-share market's investment themes are closely tied to these global giants, creating investment opportunities in related sectors like AI, consumer electronics, and humanoid robotics [1][2]. Group 1: AI and Consumer Electronics - OpenAI's strategic partnership with domestic companies to develop consumer-grade AI devices has strengthened the consumer electronics sector, leading to significant stock price increases for companies labeled as part of the "O-chain" [2]. - Companies within the "fruit chain" (Apple's supply chain) have seen their stock prices surge due to the collaboration with OpenAI, with one leading company experiencing nearly a 100% increase in stock price over three months [2]. - Industrial Fulian, a key player in the "fruit chain," has benefited from its deep integration with both Apple and Nvidia, resulting in a stock price increase of over 200% this year and entering the trillion-yuan market cap club [2][4]. Group 2: Humanoid Robotics - Companies in the humanoid robotics sector, particularly those previously supplying Tesla's electric vehicles (referred to as "T-chain"), are expected to rapidly enter Tesla's humanoid robot business, significantly expanding their growth potential [3]. - The T-chain, along with the "D-chain" (related to Nvidia), has seen remarkable stock price increases, with many stocks doubling in value this year [4]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Fund managers are focusing on companies closely tied to industry leaders, leveraging stable order performance and increasing R&D investments to capture new orders and opportunities [4][6]. - The article highlights that successful fund managers are not merely following trends but are employing systematic analysis and portfolio management to balance returns and risks [10]. - The core investment framework established by fund managers revolves around the "leading companies driving the industry chain," emphasizing the importance of companies with real growth support and performance delivery capabilities [14][15].