今日早参 2026 年 2 月 24 日 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 今日热点 宏观：美国高院驳回"特朗普关税"后的波折与推演 继美国国际贸易法院与联邦巡回上诉法院先后裁定"特朗普关税"违法后 （参见《法院裁决能阻止特朗普加征关税吗？》，2025/5/30），当地时间 2026 年 2 月 20 日（周五），美国最高法院判定特朗普依据《国际紧急经济 权力法》（IEEPA）征收的"对等关税"和"芬太尼关税"违法。如我们此前 预测，最高法院判决后，特朗普政府当日提出替代性关税政策，表示将依据 美国《1974 年贸易法》第 122 条在常规关税基础上对全球商品加征 10%的 关税，并很快次日在社交媒体 Truth Social 上表示将对部分国家关税上调至 15%，但未公布具体国家列表（参见《最高法院挑战"特朗普关税"后续如 何？》，2025/11/12）。然而，我们认为特朗普关税风波并不会由此平息，不 仅后续关税政策仍有变数，围绕已征收的大量关税返还的机制和体量也仍悬 而未决。IEEPA 关税被驳回彰显了美国"三权分立"体 ...

春节的喜庆氛围尚未完全散去，A股市场已经蓄势待发，即将迎来马年首个交易日。在假期休市期间，虽然A股大门紧闭，但全球市场的其他角落却是暗流 涌动，尤其是港股市场的率先开市，为节后A股的走势提供了宝贵的"风向标"。 面对"持股还是持币"的节前老问题，随着节后交易窗口的开启，答案似乎正逐渐明朗。综合多家机构的观点，在流动性宽裕、历史规律加持以及产业趋势的 多重共振下，A股节后行情值得期待，而科技线有望成为贯穿行情的主线。 当国内投资者沉浸在节日氛围中时，海外资金已经用真金白银表达了对中国资产的看好。 在A股休市期间，富时A50期指延续升势，累计上涨超过 1.7%，屡创新高，这直观地反映出海外资金对中国核心资产的乐观态度。与此同时，港股市场的表 现更是引人注目。2月23日，港股开盘走强，恒生指数与恒生科技指数盘初涨幅双双扩大，科技风格明显占据主导地位。其中，半导体、硬件设备等板块涨 幅居前，中芯国际、华虹半导体等科技龙头普遍上涨。 外围暖意浓：港股与A50期指提前"抢跑" 这种强势表现并非孤立事件。回顾春节假期港股的交易，机器人、半导体、AI应用等科技细分领域即使在震荡行情中也显得异常活跃。特别是机器人板 块，受益于 ...

北交所周报 交投活跃度节前回落，北交所优化再融资 2026 年 02 月 23 日 核心观点 分析师 范想想 ：010-8092-7663 ：fanxiangxiang_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130518090002 张智浩 ：zhangzhihao_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524100001 相关研究 1. 【银河北交所】2026 年度策略_"小而美"到"强 而久"，推动北证高质量发展 2. 【银河北交所】"十五五"：北交所引领中小企业 再进阶 3. 【银河北交所】2025 年度中期策略_并购协同促 新格局，提质扩容迎新供给 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 1 相对沪深 300 表现图 2026-02-23 资料来源：iFinD，中国银河证券研究院 ⚫ 北证 50 指数周涨幅为+0.58%。2 月 9 日至 2 月 13 日，北证 50 涨幅为 +0.58%。北交所 294 家上市公司中，共 103 家公司周涨幅为正，其中新股 爱得科技（+144 ...

2026 年 02 月 24 日 开源晨会 0224 ——晨会纪要 数据来源：聚源 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 2025-02 2025-06 2025-10 沪深300 创业板指 昨日涨跌幅前五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 综合 | 2.056 | | 国防军工 | 0.651 | | 食品饮料 | -0.183 | | 电子 | -0.288 | | 房地产 | -0.408 | | 数据来源：聚源 | | 昨日涨跌幅后五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 有色金属 | -3.356 | | 建筑材料 | -3.099 | | 石油石化 | -3.093 | | 钢铁 | -2.462 | | 电力设备 | -2.026 | | 数据来源：聚源 | | | 吴梦迪（分析师） | | --- | wumengdi@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521070001 观点精粹 总量视角 【宏观经济】美对等关税被判违法，春晚展示机器人技术突破——春节海内外要 闻-20260223 【宏观经济】地方两会观 ...

Macro - The consumption sentiment during the 2026 Spring Festival has improved, significantly driven by the long holiday and supportive consumption policies from nine ministries, which include financial subsidies [3][6] - Key retail and catering enterprises reported an average daily sales increase of 8.6% during the first four days of the holiday compared to the same period in 2025, marking a high growth rate compared to previous long holidays [3][6] - The first three days of the holiday saw a 10.6% increase in average daily sales for key retail and catering enterprises compared to the same period last year [3] Tourism and Hospitality - The Spring Festival holiday has led to a significant increase in travel, with a total of 5.08 billion people traveling across regions during the first 20 days of the Spring Festival, a year-on-year increase of 5.5% [4] - The average travel days for users on Tuniu during the Spring Festival reached 5.9 days, an increase of 1.1 days compared to last year [4] - The relaxation of visa policies has contributed to a rapid growth in inbound tourism, with a predicted daily average of over 2.05 million people entering and exiting the country during the holiday, a 14.1% increase year-on-year [5] Retail and Consumer Goods - The retail and catering sectors have shown strong performance, with a notable increase in sales of smart wearable devices, which saw a 20% increase in sales during the first three days of the holiday [33] - The demand for traditional cultural IP and duty-free sales has also performed well, with duty-free sales in Hainan reaching 970 million yuan during the first four days of the holiday, a 15.8% increase year-on-year [34] - The consumption of intelligent products has surged, with sales of smart cleaning appliances like window-cleaning robots and vacuum robots increasing by 209% and 59% respectively [34] Market Strategy - The market is expected to remain stable post-holiday, with growth sectors such as AI and humanoid robots likely to become highlights [19] - Companies are advised to focus on sectors experiencing growth, such as AI technology, consumer electronics, and innovative pharmaceuticals, as well as traditional sectors that may benefit from policy support [20] - The overall economic environment remains supportive of consumption, with various measures in place to stimulate demand during the holiday period [6][19]

今日热点导览 TOP 3 大新闻 三亚飞北上广深机票逼近万元，官方出手 2月23日，春节假期进入尾声。海南三大机场将迎来整个春运期间客流峰值日，预计运送旅客将突破 23.2万人次。记者查询 多家在线旅游平台发现，2月22日至23日期间，从三亚飞往北京、上海等核心城 市的直飞航班经济舱几乎全部售罄，仅剩的公务舱票价普遍逼近万元大关。 与此同时，三亚至广州的直飞航班在23日已显示"售罄"；旅客只能选择耗时更久、价格仍高达近万元的 中转方案。深圳航线也不例外，2月22日、23日三亚飞往深圳的直飞机票全部售罄，一直到24号才有直 飞深圳的航班，售价仍超8000元。 面对"天价机票"，航司方面也给出了回应。根据"海口发布"消息，海南航空工作人员表示，春运期间机 票价格受市场供需关系影响出现波动，属于正常现象。所有国内航班经济舱票价均严格按备案价格体系 执行。"我们通过内部系统实时监控票价波动，确保春运期间票价处于合理区间。"另据新华社消息，中 国民航局已批复多个批次航班增加计划，在海口增加超110架次航班，精准执飞上海、北京、成都等热 门目的地。（智通财经、新华社） 史上最贵iPhone要来了，苹果首发折叠屏定价或冲2 ...

春节假期最后一天港股的亮眼表现，令机构们对A股马年"开门红"充满期待。 "2026年的春晚是AI含量浓度最高的一年，也是AI应用的重要分水岭与节点。"华鑫证券传媒新消费首席 分析师朱珠在研报中称，AI未来的竞争将更加激烈，各家将持续推出新模型、新产品，春节后的AI板 块有望持续演绎，传媒有望承接AI应用新红利。 机构普遍指出，春节后A股科技行情的驱动核心主要来自两方面：一是节后将迎来政策的密集落地，例 如"人工智能+"、数字经济发展规划等节后预期将加速推进；二是美股与港股的映射效应显著，春节期 间海外市场表现强势的科技板块，节后通常能带动A股相关标的走强。 此外，春节后短期市场风格往往向科技成长倾斜。据华金证券统计，春节后5或10个交易日内科技成长 行业走势相对占优。近10年内春节后5个交易日内涨幅进入前三次数最多的行业主要为计算机（5次）、 电子（4次）、通信（3次）、传媒（3次）等科技成长行业，春节后10个交易日内的涨幅榜也由科技成 长行业主导。 2月23日，恒生指数、恒生科技指数双双走强。截至收盘，恒生指数上涨2.53%，报27081.91点；恒生科 技指数涨3.34%，报5385.35点。港股科技股、 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the impact of technological elements showcased during the Spring Festival Gala on the A-share market, particularly in the robotics and AI sectors, which are expected to drive short-term market sentiment and reinforce long-term industry trends [1][2] - Analysts suggest that the Spring Festival Gala serves as a "stock selection guide," indicating strong performance in technology-related sectors, especially those with robust earnings certainty [2] - The overall sentiment in the A-share market is expected to improve post-holiday, with analysts predicting a new upward trend driven by favorable policies and market dynamics [4][5] Group 2 - The Spring Festival Gala featured significant technological elements, including robotics, AI applications, and large-scale drone shows, which are seen as a collective showcase of China's tech industry [2] - Analysts recommend focusing on sectors with strong earnings potential, such as industrial metals, chemicals, and financials, while also highlighting the importance of structural investment strategies over broad index movements [5] - The anticipated positive policy environment and improved liquidity conditions post-holiday are expected to support a favorable market outlook, with analysts noting that external risks remain limited [4][5]

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月22日 2026年02月21日 港股市场速览 优于大市 能源与材料估值拉升，盈利预测平稳前滚 股价表现：行业分化较大，科技显著回撤 本周，恒生指数-0.6%，恒生综指-0.7%。风格方面，中盘（恒生中型股+0.6%） ＞小盘（恒生小型股+0.3%）＞大盘（恒生大型股-1.0%）。 主要概念指数走势分化。上涨的主要有恒生生物科技（+1.5%）；下跌的主 要有恒生互联网（-2.8%）。 国信海外选股策略表现分化。上涨的主要有 ROE 策略进攻型（+1.0%）；下 跌的主要有 ROE 策略防御型（-0.5%）。 18 个行业上涨，12 个行业下跌。上涨的主要有：石油石化（+5.4%）、有色 金属（+2.8%）、综合（+1.9%）、建筑（+1.9%）、医药（+1.6%）；下跌的 主要有：商贸零售（-3.7%）、电子（-2.4%）、传媒（-2.2%）、国防军工 （-2.1%）、计算机（-2.1%）。 估值水平：整体水平下降，能源与材料提升 本周，恒生指数估值（动态预期 12 个月正数市盈率，后同）-0.9%至 11.4x； 恒生综指估值-0.7%至 11.5x。 国信海外选股策略估值普 ...

Market Performance - During the week from February 16 to February 20, the Hong Kong stock market experienced fluctuations with the Hang Seng Index declining by 0.58% to 26,413.25 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index falling by 2.78% to 511.50 points, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index decreasing by 0.81% to 8,959.56 points [1][6][30] - Among the primary sectors, 8 sectors saw gains while 3 sectors experienced losses. The energy, materials, and industrial sectors had the highest increases, rising by 3.65%, 2.27%, and 1.03% respectively. Conversely, the consumer discretionary, consumer staples, and communication services sectors faced the largest declines, dropping by 1.86%, 1.50%, and 0.13% respectively [1][7][30] Market Liquidity - Due to the Spring Festival holiday, the Hong Kong stock market only operated for half a day on February 16, with a trading volume of HKD 850.56 billion. On February 20, the trading volume was HKD 1,654.61 billion, which is lower than the previous week's average daily trading volume of HKD 2,406.43 billion. The short-selling amount was HKD 237.27 billion, accounting for 14.43%, significantly higher than the previous week's average of 12.56% [2][13][15] Valuation and Risk Premium - As of February 20, 2026, the PE and PB ratios of the Hang Seng Index were 12.09 times and 1.23 times, respectively, placing them at the 79% and 55% percentiles since 2010. The Hang Seng Tech Index had PE and PB ratios of 21.51 times and 2.83 times, respectively, at the 18% and 49% percentiles since 2010 [3][17][22] - The risk premium of the Hang Seng Index was calculated at 4.19%, which is at the 5% percentile since 2010, while the risk premium based on the 10-year Chinese government bond yield was 6.48%, at the 42% percentile since 2010 [3][19][21] Investment Outlook - The geopolitical risks in the Middle East are rising, which may lead to increased volatility in energy and precious metals sectors. The U.S. is exerting pressure on Iran, with potential military actions being considered [4][9][30] - The consumer sector is currently valued relatively low, and with increasing consumer promotion policies, there is potential for growth in this sector [4][30] - The technology sector remains a long-term investment focus, with reduced valuation pressure following recent corrections, and is expected to rebound due to accelerated AI model updates and applications [4][30]