解锁铝产业链：分析框架与行情梳理揭秘 20251119 摘要 全球铝土矿资源丰富，主要集中在几内亚、越南和澳大利亚，但中国储 量较少，对外依存度高。2024 年中国进口矿砂 1.58 亿吨，同比增长 12.4%，其中几内亚占比 70%，表明中国铝土矿供应依赖进口，存在潜 在供应风险。 氧化铝生产主要采用拜耳法，分为高温和低温拜耳法，适用于不同类型 的铝土矿。中国是全球最大的氧化铝生产国，2024 年产能 8,552 万吨， 占全球 56%，主要集中在山东、山西和广西三省，合计占比超过 60%。 电解铝生产高耗能，每吨消耗约 1.3 万至 1.4 万度电。中国是全球最大 的电解铝生产国，但受碳达峰和碳中和政策影响，产能上限被限制在 4,500 万吨左右，新建自备火力发电竞场也受到限制，行业面临转型。 电解铝行业供给侧改革后，价格基本稳定在 2 万元/吨上下。成本构成中， 氧化铝和电力占比较大，但近年来供需关系成为定价的主要驱动因素， 而非成本。2023 年中国 76%的电解铝进口来自俄罗斯。 Q&A 铝的基本概念和主要性能是什么？ 铝是一种银白色的轻金属，常见形态包括棒状、片状、箔状、粉状、带状和丝 状等。在潮 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The previous undervaluation and macro - sentiment have boosted prices, but the supply - demand pressure has not been significantly alleviated. After the undervaluation situation is repaired, it can still be used as a short - side configuration within the sector [2][77] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Outlook - Supply: The alloy supply side has not started a production - cut trend, and the overall output remains in high - level fluctuations. Silicon manganese (187 enterprises) had a September output of 898,400 tons, a 1.2% month - on - month decrease and an 18.8% year - on - year increase. Silicon iron (136 enterprises) had a September output of 488,200 tons, a 1% month - on - month decrease and a 5.9% year - on - year increase [2][23] - Demand: The molten iron output is gradually decreasing. Due to the slow progress of steel inventory reduction, steel profits are continuously compressed. With the seasonal decline in steel demand in November and possible phased production restrictions on some regional steel mills, the demand side still has a downward risk [2][23][76] - Cost: Manganese ore prices are differentiated. Since the resumption of shipments in June, the import volume of Australian ore has increased significantly, causing the price of Australian lumps to decline continuously. However, the overall manganese ore port inventory is still at a low level in the same period, and the spot prices of Gabonese and South African ores are still relatively firm. The cost side has some support, but the upward driving force for prices is insufficient [2][56][77] - Market sentiment: The 14th Five - Year Plan Outline mentions carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, and there are expectations of capacity reduction or production control in the ferroalloy industry. Sino - US trade negotiations have made important progress, reaching a basic consensus [2][77] Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral: After the undervaluation situation is repaired, it can still be used as a short - side configuration within the sector [3] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [3] - Options: Sell straddle option combinations on rallies [3] Fundamental Situation 1. Market Review - In October, ferroalloy futures prices first declined and then rebounded. After the National Day holiday, steel inventory increased counter - seasonally, and the supply side remained at a high level, causing price declines. In mid - October, prices reached a low - valuation level, and with the decline in steel inventory and positive progress in Sino - US trade negotiations, prices rebounded [7] 2. Supply at High - level Fluctuations and Demand Slowly Declining - Supply: Silicon manganese production in September was 898,400 tons, with a slight decline expected in October. Silicon iron production in September was 488,200 tons, and it is expected to remain stable at a high level in October. On October 31, the national 136 independent silicon - iron enterprise sample start - up rate was 36.08%, and the daily average output was 113,200 tons. The 187 independent silicon - manganese enterprise sample start - up rate was 42.99%, and the daily average output was 207,700 tons [23] - Demand: Steel mill spot profits continued to decline, and molten iron output decreased slightly after mid - October. On October 31, the daily average pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills was 2.3636 million tons, a decrease of 35,400 tons compared to the previous period. It is expected that molten iron output will continue to decline in November [23] 3. Alloy Factory Inventory Oscillating Upward with a Significant Increase in Silicon Manganese Inventory - Alloy factory inventory: On October 31, the inventory of 60 independent silicon - iron enterprises was 71,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,400 tons. The inventory of 63 independent silicon - manganese enterprises was 314,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21,500 tons [40] - Downstream inventory: Due to low steel profits, steel mills have the motivation to reduce raw material inventory. The available days of silicon iron and manganese silicon are stable with a slight decline, and it is expected to maintain a low - inventory state in November [40] 4. Manganese Ore Inventory at a Low Level and Australian Ore Prices Continuously Declining - Power coal and electricity prices: Port power coal prices were strong in October, and ferroalloy production area electricity prices fluctuated little, having no obvious impact on costs [52][56] - Manganese ore: The price of Australian lumps has declined continuously, with a cumulative decline of 1 yuan/ton degree in Tianjin Port in October. However, the overall manganese ore port inventory is at a low level in the same period, and the spot prices of Gabonese and South African ores are relatively firm. The cost side has some support, but the upward driving force for manganese silicon prices is insufficient [56]

低估值带动反弹 但供需压力仍存 银河期货研究所 周涛 期货从业证号：F03134259 投资咨询证号：Z0021009 目录 227/82/4 第二章 核心逻辑分析 4 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 第三章 周度数据追踪 6 1 资料来源：Wind Bloomberg Mysteel GALAXY FUTURES 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 期权：逢高卖出虚值跨式组合。 2 资料来源：Wind Bloomberg Mysteel GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 基本面方面，供应端表现分化，硅铁产量小幅回升，锰硅产量略有回落，尽管近期合金企业利润不佳，但产量仍未出现趋势性下行， 产量绝对值量仍维持高位。需求方面，247家钢厂铁水产量继续下降，且降幅有所加大。同时，尽管上周钢联样本钢材库存小幅下 降，但10月整体去库情况并不理想，导致钢厂利润仍在恶化，原料 ...

Summary of Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the A-share market and various sectors including technology, consumer goods, and home furnishings. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Market Trends for May**: The A-share market is expected to maintain a balanced trend with a focus on technology and certain consumer sectors, particularly in May [1] 2. **US-China Relations**: There are no significant negative developments in US-China relations, with increasing possibilities for negotiations, which is seen as a positive sign for the home furnishings sector [2][3] 3. **Fiscal Policy Outlook**: The Chinese Ministry of Finance indicates that fiscal stimulus and monetary easing may accelerate in May, which is crucial for market performance [3][4] 4. **US Economic Data**: Recent US economic indicators show a downward trend, with April's non-farm employment numbers falling short of expectations, suggesting a potential negative impact on the A-share market [4][5] 5. **Consumer Behavior During Holidays**: Data from the May Day holiday indicates a growth in travel and consumption compared to last year, which aligns with expectations for domestic consumption [5][6] 6. **Market Sentiment Post-Holidays**: There is a concern about whether the A-share market will open high and then decline, but the current sentiment suggests a stable outlook without significant negative pressures [6][7] 7. **Historical Performance in May**: Historically, May has shown weak performance in the A-share market, with only 6 out of the last 15 years seeing gains, influenced by external events and policies [9][10] 8. **Key Influencing Factors**: The performance in May is heavily influenced by policies, external events, and liquidity conditions, with a focus on real estate sales and consumer data being critical [11][12] 9. **Positive Policy Environment**: The outlook for May is deemed positive due to proactive policy measures and potential industry-specific policies, particularly in technology and consumption [13][14] 10. **External Events**: The potential for US-China negotiations and other external events is expected to have a limited negative impact on the market, with a focus on domestic policy developments [15][16] 11. **Economic Data Expectations**: Economic data for May is expected to show stability, with a focus on consumption and investment growth, particularly in infrastructure and manufacturing [16][17] 12. **Liquidity Conditions**: The liquidity environment is expected to remain accommodative, with potential interest rate cuts from the central bank, supporting market stability [17][18] 13. **Sector Focus for May**: Key sectors to watch include technology, consumer goods, and industries benefiting from policy support, with technology expected to outperform due to industry trends and policy catalysts [20][21] 14. **Investment Recommendations**: Investors are advised to focus on technology, certain consumer sectors, and media related to AI applications, with a particular emphasis on telecommunications and semiconductors [22][23] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The discussion highlights the importance of monitoring external economic conditions, particularly the US Federal Reserve's actions, which could influence liquidity and market sentiment [18][19] - The potential for significant policy announcements in May related to technology innovation and consumer support is emphasized as a driver for market performance [14][21]

Core Insights - Yangjiang is rapidly developing its offshore wind power industry, with significant investments and projects leading to its emergence as a key player in the sector [2][3][6] - The city aims to establish a complete offshore wind power industrial chain, enhancing its manufacturing capabilities and technological innovation [2][3][5] Investment and Development - As of May 2023, Yangjiang has invested approximately 112.6 billion yuan in 14 offshore wind projects, with a total installed capacity of 6.0166 million kilowatts, ranking first in Guangdong and second nationally [2] - The city has a target to achieve an annual output value of 100 billion yuan by 2025 and over 200 billion yuan by 2035 in the wind power sector [3][6] Technological Innovation - Yangjiang has established the Guangdong Provincial Laboratory for Advanced Energy Science and Technology, focusing on key technologies for deep-sea wind power [3][4] - The city is also developing a green energy demonstration industrial park, which will supply clean electricity directly from offshore wind power to manufacturing enterprises [3][6] Challenges and Solutions - The transition to deep-sea wind power development presents challenges in terms of environmental complexity and technical requirements [4] - Continuous efforts in technology breakthroughs and talent cultivation are essential to overcome these challenges and enhance the competitiveness of the industry [4][7] International Collaboration - Yangjiang is positioned to become a global leader in offshore wind power, with plans to export technology and capabilities to other countries [7][8] - The city is also involved in innovative projects that integrate offshore wind power with marine farming and hydrogen production, showcasing a comprehensive approach to energy development [6][8]

Core Insights - The focus of the recent IATA annual meeting was on reducing the procurement costs of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) and establishing a shared responsibility mechanism among airlines [1] - SAF production is projected to reach 2 million tons by 2025, which will only account for 0.7% of total aviation fuel usage, indicating a need for exponential growth to meet the industry's net-zero carbon emissions target by 2050 [1][2] - The aviation industry is under pressure to reduce carbon emissions, with SAF being a key solution to decarbonization [1][2] SAF Production and Demand - SAF is derived from sustainable sources such as biomass and waste oils, and can reduce lifecycle carbon emissions by up to 85% compared to traditional fossil fuels [2] - The EU has set strict SAF usage targets, requiring a 2% blend by 2025, increasing to 6% by 2030, and 70% by 2050, which translates to a demand of nearly 1 million tons of SAF by 2025 [2] - China aims for a SAF consumption of over 20,000 tons in 2025, with a cumulative total of 50,000 tons, representing 0.2% of its annual aviation kerosene consumption [2] Industry Developments - Several Chinese airlines have conducted verification flights using SAF, with a pilot program initiated in September 2024 to incorporate SAF into domestic flights [3] - Domestic companies, such as Sinopec and Junheng Bio, are increasingly entering the SAF production sector, with Sinopec planning to produce 230,000 tons annually in collaboration with TotalEnergies [4][5] - China has established a SAF production capacity of 350,000 tons, with ongoing investments to expand this capacity further [4] Cost and Market Dynamics - The average cost of SAF is currently 3.1 times that of traditional aviation fuel, projected to rise to 4.2 times by 2025 due to compliance fees and decreasing traditional fuel prices [6] - The IATA estimates that achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 could incur costs of up to $4.7 trillion if current SAF prices persist, highlighting the need for government incentives to stimulate market growth [6][7] - Industry experts emphasize the necessity for large-scale production and competitive pricing of SAF to meet carbon reduction goals, similar to the support provided for renewable energy sources [7]

Core Viewpoint - The geothermal energy industry in China is facing challenges despite its rich resources and significant potential for development, necessitating improvements in efficiency and economic value [1][2]. Group 1: Current Status of Geothermal Energy - China possesses one-sixth of the world's geothermal resources and has maintained the top position in direct utilization for many years [2]. - The scale of shallow geothermal heating and cooling has steadily expanded, with innovations in geothermal power generation technology [1]. - Geothermal energy plays a crucial role in clean heating during winter in northern regions and in reducing carbon emissions in agriculture and industry [1]. Group 2: Challenges and Future Directions - The industry must recognize the importance of geothermal energy in the green and low-carbon transition of China's energy system [1]. - There is a call for the promotion of advanced geothermal technologies and active development of geothermal projects [1]. - Continuous innovation in exploration and utilization technologies is essential to enhance efficiency and economic value [2]. Group 3: Policy and Support - The government plans to improve policies to support the development of geothermal energy [1]. - Recent initiatives, such as the action plan for the high-quality development of the heat pump industry, aim to foster sustainable growth and contribute to carbon neutrality goals [2]. - Urban renewal initiatives emphasize the integration of geothermal energy in building design to meet ecological and comfort standards [2].

Core Viewpoint - The company plans to invest in two photovoltaic power generation projects in Hunan Province, with a total installed capacity of 280 MW and a total investment of approximately 1.557 billion yuan, aligning with national renewable energy development goals [1][2]. Investment Projects - The projects include the Xinxu Station Lin-Guang Complementary Photovoltaic Power Generation Project in Xin Tian County and the Chenjiazui Fishing-Guang Complementary Photovoltaic Power Generation Project in Anxiang County [1]. - The funding structure for the Xinxu project is 20% equity and 80% bank loans, while the Chenjiazui project is funded by 30% equity and 70% bank loans [1]. Project Timeline and Financials - The construction period for the Xinxu project is approximately 12 months, and for the Chenjiazui project, it is about 16 months [2]. - Both projects are expected to have a pre-tax internal rate of return that meets the company's investment requirements, indicating good profitability potential [2]. Strategic Importance - The investment is part of the company's strategy to expand its renewable energy capacity, enhance profitability, and support local energy supply while contributing to low-carbon economic development [2][3]. - The company aims to optimize project design and management to improve project returns and reduce costs [3]. Current Operations and Performance - The company primarily engages in thermal power generation, along with hydropower, wind power, and solar energy [3]. - As of June 2024, the company's installed capacity reached 6.6774 million kW, with clean energy accounting for 1.8574 million kW [3]. Financial Outlook - The company anticipates a net loss of 100 million to 120 million yuan for 2024, although this represents a reduction in losses compared to the previous year [4]. - The expected losses are attributed to decreased power generation and high fuel prices impacting the thermal power business [4][5].