中信建投证券认为，当前市场仍处于窄幅震荡格局当中，随着美联储12月延续降息和中央经济工作会议 政策落地，市场中期政策和流动性预期已经明确。短期A股波动主要受外部环境影响，如美股AI泡沫疑 虑和日本央行加息，目前美股AI核心公司股价已经企稳，日本央行加息落地后续影响有限，A股有望和 全球股市一起共振上行。 从市场情绪角度进行分析，投资者情绪指数近期降至70以下水平，在本轮牛市中处于区间下沿，这也同 样反映出当前投资者悲观情绪已经得到了一轮较为充分的反应，考虑到仍然偏高的杠杆资金情绪，预计 投资者情绪也将小幅回升，带动市场波动上行。 22日早盘，两市股指盘中强势上扬，沪指重返3900点上方，创业板指、科创50指数涨近2%，全A近 3500股飘红。 截至午间收盘，沪指涨0.64%报3915.2点，深证成指涨1.36%，创业板指涨1.8%，科创50指数涨1.95%， 沪深北三市合计成交11991亿元。 盘面上看，保险、银行板块疲弱；半导体板块强势拉升，钢铁、化纤、汽车、石油等板块上扬，海南自 贸概念全线爆发，存储芯片、光刻机、CPO概念等活跃。 （文章来源：证券时报网） ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Report's Core View - Gasoline crack spreads have declined, but PX prices are strong, supporting the PX - naphtha spread. Despite no significant fundamental changes in supply disruptions or sudden demand increases, PTA plants maintain high - load operation, and PX consumption remains stable. The spread between PX and mixed xylene has widened to $120, leading Korean manufacturers to cut STDP operations and plan to shut down relevant facilities in the second half of December. PX costs are high while PTA profits are under pressure, but integrated enterprises have improved economic benefits due to raw material self - sufficiency. New polyester installations have pushed the polyester load to a high level, PTA consumption is high, market inventory willingness has increased, and the basis has strengthened rapidly. Although domestic demand is seasonally weak, polyester factories have medium - to - low inventories, so the willingness to cut production is low. The cancellation of India's BIS certification is expected to drive export growth [2]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Data (Market Conditions) 1. Price Changes of Key Products - PTA spot price increased from 4650 to 4750, a change of 100; MEG internal - market price decreased from 3667 to 3633, a change of - 34; PTA closing price rose from 4748 to 4882, a change of 134; MEG closing price dropped from 3767 to 3738, a change of - 29; 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price increased from 6350 to 6400, a change of 50; short - fiber basis decreased from 140 to 121, a change of - 19; 2 - 3 spread increased from 12 to 16, a change of 4; polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, a change of 6; 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber price remained unchanged at 5275; the spread between 1.4D direct - spun and imitation large - chemical fiber increased from 1075 to 1125, a change of 50; East China water - bottle chip price increased from 5695 to 5708, a change of 13; hot - filling polyester bottle chip price increased from 5695 to 5708, a change of 13; carbonated - grade polyester bottle chip price increased from 5795 to 5808, a change of 13; outer - market water - bottle chip price increased from 755 to 765, a change of 10; bottle - chip spot processing fee decreased from 491 to 430, a change of - 61; T32S pure - polyester yarn price remained unchanged at 10270; T32S pure - polyester yarn processing fee decreased from 3920 to 3870, a change of - 50; polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged at 16290; cotton 328 price increased from 14750 to 14785, a change of 35; polyester - cotton yarn profit decreased from 1504 to 1458, a change of - 46; primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) price increased from 7000 to 7030, a change of 30; hollow staple fiber 6 - 15D cash flow decreased from 596 to 552, a change of - 44; primary low - melting - point staple fiber price remained unchanged at 7515 [2]. 2. Market Conditions of Short - fiber and Bottle - chip - Short - fiber: The main futures of polyester staple fiber rose 142 to 6292. In the spot market, the prices of polyester staple fiber production plants were stable with some increases, and the prices of traders were raised. There was more replenishment in the futures and spot markets, but downstream purchases were less, and the production and sales of factories were fair. The price of 1.56dtex*38mm semi - bright (1.4D) polyester staple fiber in the East China market was 6180 - 6460 (cash on the spot, tax - included, self - pick - up), in the North China market was 6300 - 6580 (cash on the spot, tax - included, delivered), and in the Fujian market was 6150 - 6400 (cash on the spot, tax - included, delivered) [2]. - Bottle - chip: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 5720 - 5810 yuan/ton, and the average price increased by 40 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day. PTA and bottle - chip futures fluctuated strongly. The supply side mainly raised offers, the market trading atmosphere was light, downstream terminals were cautiously waiting and watching, and the market negotiation center rose [2]. 3. Load and Production - Sales Data - Direct - spun short - fiber load (weekly) increased from 88.37% to 89.32%, an increase of 0.95%; polyester staple fiber production and sales increased from 72.00% to 92.00%, an increase of 20.00%; polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) remained unchanged at 66.00%; recycled cotton - type load index (weekly) remained unchanged at 51.10% [3].

评估基准日为2025年5月31日，采用资产基础法评估，结果显示置出资产及负债市场价值达60,662.99万 元，较账面净资产55,426.20万元增值5,236.79万元，增值率9.45%。评估范围涵盖流动资产、非流动资 产、流动负债及非流动负债，涉及存货、房屋建筑物、设备等多项资产，其中长期股权投资评估增值 4,930.26万元，成为主要增值来源。 值得注意的是，部分房屋建筑物存在权属瑕疵，未办理不动产权证书，且水厂厂区土地使用权未纳入评 估范围；子公司南京金羚涉及与南京玛莎公司的未决诉讼，再审结果可能影响负债；江苏金羚的土地因 污染问题评估时考虑了减损金额2,666.60万元；此外，南京金羚部分资产已签订征收协议，评估值参考 了征收价格，这些因素均未在评估结论中全额调整。 南方财经12月22日电，南京化纤(600889.SH)12月19日公告，江苏华信资产评估有限公司出具专项报 告，对南京化纤重大资产重组涉及的置出资产及负债进行加期评估，为其资产置换、发行股份及支付现 金购买南京工艺装备制造股份有限公司股权事宜提供价值参考。 ...

当下周期板块的亮点和预期有哪些？20251221 摘要 上。若考虑到明年的销量增长、价格提升及单吨净利增加，假设 2026 年销量 增至 330~340 万吨（增速 4%~5%），单吨净利 900~1,000 元，则仅粗纱 部分贡献的业绩为 30~34 亿元。 在电子布方面，今年普通电子布呈现高景气 度，PCB 产品涨价带动电子布涨价。三季度公司普通电子布吨净利约 0.6 元/米， 目前报价接近 4 元/米，全行业单吨盈利可达 0.9 元/米。今年公司后部销量接 近 10 亿米，明年预计增长 4%~5%。假设明年销售 10.5 亿米，每单位盈利 1 元或 1.1 元，则电子部贡献业绩接近 11 亿元。因此，总体来看，中国巨石在 2026 年的业绩合计下限 40 亿，上限 45 亿，可稳住目前 600 亿左右的市值， 并预期达到 800 亿市值。 此外，高端特种电子布研发稳步推进，一代已进入验 证期，其它类型也在推进中。预计 26 年第 1 季度验证期初步结果将出，高端 特种电子布推出后对估值有进一步提振作用。因此，从基本面和估值角度，中 国巨石具备较强逻辑，是我们年度策略中的重点推荐标的。 玻纤粗纱方面，中高 ...

以工业打底，浙江桐乡综合实力位居全国百强县前列。近些年，这里又有可喜变化——经济发展 含"新"量不断提升。截至2024年，桐乡拥有高新技术企业746家，过去4年增长超过80%；研发强度攀升 至3.52%，保持较高增长。 桐乡既没有顶尖高校扎堆，也非传统科创高地。科技何以成为桐乡重要增量？ 立足"里子"，创新"外脑"才能与当地良性互动，进一步夯实产业根基。 振石股份新材料产业园展厅，一款光伏复材边框格外显眼。"这是我们全球首创的产品，相比主流的铝 合金材料光伏边框，强度更强，还更轻、更耐腐蚀，能长期在海上、沙漠等环境中使用。"振石股份研 发中心主任刘金花说。 作为风电用材行业的领跑者，全球每3支风电叶片，就有1支用振石的材料。可振石不满足于此，又把目 光投向其他行业，靠创新打开了新市场。如今，振石业务范围涵盖风电、太阳能光伏、新能源汽车、建 材家居等多个领域。 在专和精上下"慢功夫"，获得"快"的跨越发展，这样的例子，在桐乡处处可见。 华友钴业从钴矿开发做到锂电材料全产业链；新凤鸣专注化纤20多年后，短纤产量跃居全国第一……在 桐乡，深耕核心技术的企业，总能找到新的增长空间。 机器轰鸣，浙江中泽精密科技股份有限 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Short fiber: In the short - term, it is in a volatile market, and in the medium - term, it is likely to be weak. The contradiction between cost and the terminal is intensifying. The cost side is pre - trading the shortage of PX in the first half of the year, while the terminal is gradually transmitting negative feedback upwards. Eventually, the contradiction may be resolved through the negative feedback of the polyester sector. However, due to the profit and low - inventory cushions of mainstream fiber varieties, the game will continue for some time. The unilateral price is generally volatile with increased volatility. Although the fundamental data of short fiber is good, the processing fee valuation is generally high, and positions for compressing the processing fee should be held, with timely profit - taking in case of cost fluctuations [3][8][9]. - Bottle chips: They are expected to be weak in a volatile manner. The contradiction between cost and the terminal is intensifying, similar to short fiber. In December, the actual supply of bottle chips increases, but the downstream load rebounds. Some factories plan early maintenance in mid - to late January to deal with potential high inventory accumulation. The supply - demand situation improves marginally, and investors can take long positions in the positive spread at low prices [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Short Fiber (PF) 3.1.1 Supply - Factory operation is maintained at a high level, with an average operation rate of 95.5%. The operation rate of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber for spinning has dropped to 96.8% (the 250,000 - ton unit of Hengyi Gaoxin is under maintenance until the end of the month) [9]. 3.1.2 Demand - Domestic demand for terminal orders is weakening. The yarn, weaving, and grey fabric sectors are continuing to reduce their loads. The grey fabric situation is slightly worse than last year, but the rest are still acceptable. The future demand outlook is weak, and some downstream enterprises may consider taking early holidays in mid - January. In the second half of the week, raw material prices rose sharply, but the terminal had difficulty following up. The physical inventory is high, and raw material inventory procurement is moderately low. Downstream enterprises are expected to maintain the rhythm of replenishing inventory according to rigid demand, waiting for the absolute low price [9]. 3.1.3 Inventory - The inventory transfer of short fiber is relatively smooth, with a slight inventory reduction. The 1.4D equity inventory is 3 days, and the physical inventory is 14.7 days [9]. 3.1.4 Valuation - The current spot processing fee is 1000 - 1100 yuan/ton, which is high; the futures processing fee is 950 - 1000 yuan/ton, also high [10]. 3.1.5 Strategy - Unilateral: No recommendation. - Inter - period: Observe positive spreads at low prices and enter the market when the valuation is reasonable. - Inter - variety: Hold long positions in PX/TA and short positions in PF in the short - term, and take profits in time in case of cost fluctuations [10]. 3.2 Bottle Chips (PR) 3.2.1 Supply - In the fourth quarter, the factory operation rate is expected to be generally around 80%. This week, the operation rate is 80.8%. After mid - December, the factory operation rate may increase again (Huarun Zhuhai plans to increase its load in late December). The production of Fuhai's 300,000 - ton unit is postponed again, and it is expected to produce products by the end of the month [11]. 3.2.2 Demand - The off - season for demand continues, and the increase in the operation rate due to year - end inventory replenishment has not yet arrived. The average operation rate of beverage factories has dropped to around 60%, and the operation rates of edible oil and sheet material factories have also declined. The export volume from November to December is expected to be in the range of 550,000 - 600,000 tons, mainly compensating for the export rhythm from September to October. Due to the concentrated shipment at the beginning of the month, the inventory of bottle chip factories has dropped to just over 14 days [11]. 3.2.3 Valuation - The spot processing fee is 400 - 450 yuan/ton, which is moderate; the 02 - 03 processing fee is 380 - 390 yuan/ton, slightly low [11]. 3.2.4 Strategy - Unilateral: No recommendation. - Inter - period: Take profits on reverse spreads and take long positions in positive spreads at low prices (for contracts after March). - Inter - variety: Take profits on reducing the processing fee [11]. 3.3 Other Information 3.3.1 Sino - US Negotiations - The negotiation result is that the fentanyl tariff is reduced by 10%, and high - value reciprocal tariffs are no longer a potential weapon. The textile and clothing tax rate has decreased from 49.3% to 39.3%. The United States may import about one - month's worth of goods in advance, and considering the consumption from May to September, there may still be about half a month's worth of imports left. There is still room for advance imports from November to December, but it is expected to be mainly near - term orders. The positive impact is more reflected in the import outlook for the whole of next year, but competition from other countries should still be noted [12]. 3.3.2 New Capacity in 2026 - For bottle chips, the domestic capacity to be put into operation with relatively high certainty in 2026 is only the 400,000 - ton unit of Keson and the remaining 300,000 tons of Fuhai, with a total of 700,000 tons and a capacity growth rate of 3.2%. The profit trend is expected to recover [14]. - For short fiber, there are mainly two units in China in 2026: the 250,000 - ton unit of Hengyi Yida and the 550,000 - ton unit of Xin凤鸣, which are planned to be put into operation in the first half and mid - year respectively, with a relatively high capacity growth rate of 8.7%. In addition, since the 250,000 - ton unit of Yida mainly produces sewing threads, it may also affect the spun - lace sector (due to potential production conversion), putting greater pressure on the non - standard price difference [17]. 3.3.3 Short Fiber Export - The direct export of short fiber is expected to remain strong. The garment, weaving, and texturing sectors continue to move overseas, and the proportion of garment exports from Southeast Asia is high. The production capacity in other regions such as Pakistan and Egypt has also increased, supporting the direct export of short fiber. From the export data of short fiber from January to September 2025, the export growth rates in other regions except North America and Africa are relatively high, showing high resilience in the face of changing trade conditions. The exemption from the Indian BIS certification has boosted exports in the short - term, but the export growth rate of short fiber is already very high, and the main impact is on the filament sector [18][19][20]. 3.3.4 Bottle Chip Market - **Basis and monthly spread**: In the second half of the week, the raw material prices rose sharply, the futures price followed, the basis weakened, and the monthly spread was generally weak [25]. - **Spot price and important spreads**: The absolute price rebounded, but the trading volume was average. This week, the transaction price was in the range of 5650 - 5750 yuan/ton; the FOB price was in the range of 750 - 775 US dollars/ton. The bottle chip - PVC spread has been at a high level of 1000 - 1500 yuan/ton since 2024, with a relatively low driving force for further substitution. The cost - performance ratio of bottle chips compared to general plastics such as PP is still high, and the substitution in the packaging field continues [27][29][30]. - **Production and operation**: Since 2024, the production capacity base has been continuously expanding, and the current effective production capacity has reached 21.68 million tons (CCF caliber). This week, the bottle chip load is 80.5% [33]. - **Raw materials**: The PTA unit has reduced its load, and the processing fee is at a low level. The coal - based ethylene glycol unit has significantly reduced its load, and the port inventory is increasing [44][47]. - **Cost and profit**: The polymerization cost is about 5150 - 5250 yuan/ton. The bottle chip processing fee is passively compressed, with the spot processing fee around 440 - 500 yuan/ton. The export profit is about 750 - 800 yuan/ton calculated based on the domestic polymerization cost, reflecting a relatively high level of export profit [51]. - **Inventory**: Due to the concentrated shipment at the beginning of the month, the inventory of domestic polyester bottle chip factories has dropped to around 14 days (CCF caliber). According to CCF data, the estimated social inventory in November is 3.23 million tons, and in December it is estimated to be 3.44 million tons [57]. - **Device changes**: The 600,000 - ton unit of Zhuhai Huarun has restarted (not included in this week's load). In late January 2026, a 1.2 - million - ton unit in Jiangyin is expected to be shut down for maintenance and is expected to restart at the end of March. The 250,000 - ton unit of Tenglong reduced its production to around 85% in mid - November, and the original plan to operate at full capacity around December 10 has been postponed to around late December. The 350,000 - ton unit of Yisheng Dahua is expected to restart at the end of January, and Hainan Yisheng is expected to carry out corresponding maintenance. The new 300,000 - ton unit of Fuhai was fed on December 16 and is expected to produce products next week [63][64]. - **Demand**: The operation rate of downstream industries has rebounded month - on - month. The operation rate of beverage enterprises has slightly rebounded to between 70% and 90%, with some areas slightly higher or lower. In the sheet material sector, the operation rate in East China is 50% - 70%, and in South China it is around 40%. The average operation rate of edible oil factories is between 60% and 80%, with some areas slightly higher or lower [68][69]. - **Global trade flow**: Overseas bottle chip production capacity has increased very little in recent years, and a small amount of growth is mainly concentrated in Southeast Asia and the Indian subcontinent. In addition, the "bottle - to - bottle" RPET substitution of virgin bottle chips in Europe and the United States also has bottlenecks in cost and supply volume. The overseas downstream demand growth will increasingly rely on imports to achieve supply - demand balance. The main trade flows of Chinese bottle chip exports are: (1) China - Southeast Asia - South Asia; (2) China - Central Asia, Russia, and Eastern Europe; (3) China - South Korea, Mexico, the Middle East, etc. for re - export to North America; (4) China - Africa and South America [82]. - **Export situation**: According to customs data, the total export volume of polyester bottle chips and slices in September 2025 was 551,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11%. Short - term concerns include: (1) the impact of the US removing bottle chips from the tariff exemption list on the re - export of bottle chips from countries such as South Korea and Vietnam, which may indirectly affect China's export volume; (2) the increasing proportion of Chinese bottle chip imports in the southern hemisphere regions such as Africa this year, and the approaching summer in these regions provides support for exports from November to December [89]. 3.3.5 Short - fiber Market - **Valuation**: The basis is volatile, the inter - month relationship remains in contango, and the near - month contract is gradually flattening [101]. - **Operation rate**: The operation rate of short - fiber factories is high. The short - fiber load has dropped to around 95.5% but still remains at a high level. This week, the operation rate of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber for spinning is 97% [110]. - **Polyester inventory**: As raw material prices rise, the price increase of polyester products lags behind, and the inventory is mainly reduced slightly [114]. - **Polyester export**: In October, the year - on - year export of polyester continued to grow, but the month - on - month performance was divergent [119]. - **Polyester profit**: The profit of filament is relatively weak [121]. - **Short - fiber downstream**: The operation rate of polyester yarn has decreased slightly month - on - month, and the inventory is gradually accumulating [129]. - **Weaving operation**: The operation rate has decreased slightly [131]. - **Weaving inventory**: The raw material inventory procurement has decreased slightly. The raw material inventory of terminal factories in the Yangtze River Delta has decreased slightly. This week, only some areas such as Ningbo have effectively increased their inventory, while the rest of the areas are mainly engaged in scattered procurement. There are discussions on large - volume orders, but there is a lack of actual transactions, and the supply and demand sides are in a price game. Currently, the inventory of production factories is mainly concentrated at 5 - 7 days. The grey fabric orders are generally weak, and the fabric price is declining. The new orders in the weaving sector are generally weak, with only some improvement in foreign trade, and domestic sales are relatively more sluggish. The overall grey fabric inventory is still increasing. The price of conventional grey fabric varieties continues to decline, the nominal cash flow of grey fabric is weakening, and the losses are obvious [137][139]. - **Chinese textile and clothing retail**: In November, it increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month [141]. - **Textile and clothing export**: In November, the month - on - month export decreased [149].

国泰君安期货·能源化工 短纤、瓶片周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 钱嘉寅 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023476 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 日期：2025年12月21日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 瓶片（PR） 短纤：短期震荡市，中期偏弱 估值与利润 基本面运行情况 供需平衡表 03 短纤（PF） 估值与利润 基本面运行情况 CONTENTS 01 观点小结 上游观点汇总 瓶片：震荡偏弱 2 02 观点小结 01 本周短纤观点：成本终端矛盾加剧 供应 工厂开工维持高位，平均开工95.5%，纺纱用直纺涤短开机率回落至96.8%（恒逸高新25万吨检修至月底） 需求 内需终端订单走弱，纱线、织造、坯布环节继续降负，坯布略差于去年其余尚可，后续需求预期较弱部分下游可能考虑1月中旬提前放假，下 半周原料大涨，终端跟涨较难，实物库存偏高。原料备库中性偏低，后续下游预计保持刚需补库节奏，等待绝对价格低位。短纤库存传导较顺 利，小幅去 ...

（编辑 丛可心） 证券日报网讯 12月19日，吉林化纤在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司的碳纤维工艺适合做树脂 基的复合材料，具有多规格产品，可以应用到多领域，商业航天航空领域也是碳纤维应用领域之一。公 司向各领域进行拓展也持续在跟进，部分领域打样、试用、认证等一系列工作均要按步骤开展，拓展碳 纤维在各领域的放量是公司持续开展的工作。 ...

证券日报网讯12月19日，吉林化纤（000420）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，碳纤维可以用于滑雪 板的生产。目前，公司没有碳纤维滑雪板产品生产。 ...

（编辑 任世碧） 证券日报网讯 12月19日，吉林化纤在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司碳纤维始终坚持向多领域 拓展，公司的碳纤维工艺适合做树脂基的复合材料，具有多规格产品，可以应用到多领域，公司正积极 拓展，与碳纤维产业链各合作单位联合开发，合作提高，争取在各领域放量，其中也包括相关领域。 ...