Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing sector showed mild recovery in May, with the manufacturing PMI rising by 0.5 points to 49.5, slightly above the seasonal average. However, this increase is not strong considering the low base from April due to tariff impacts. The absolute value of 49.5 is only better than May 2019 and May 2023 in the past decade [1][7][8]. Manufacturing Sector Analysis - In May, the manufacturing sectors that improved can be categorized into three types: emerging manufacturing (computer communication electronics, electrical machinery), essential consumer agricultural products, and the petrochemical industry chain (petrochemical refining, chemicals, synthetic fibers, and plastics) [2][9]. - The macroeconomic clues behind these improvements include: the cancellation of high tariffs leading to better export orders, the continued effects of domestic "two new" policies, and demand growth from the AI industry. The sectors experiencing significant downturns are mainly in the construction chain and optional consumer goods [2][9]. - The electrical machinery sector is leading in terms of prosperity, with a PMI above 55, benefiting from rapid growth in new energy and new energy vehicles, as well as policy dividends from "two new" initiatives [3][11]. Emerging Industries - Emerging industries such as new generation information technology, new materials, high-end equipment, and energy-saving and environmental protection sectors showed improved prosperity in May. This is attributed to the rebound in external demand and domestic policy support [3][12]. - The biological industry remains the weakest, with a significant decline in export orders continuing from April [3][12]. Construction Sector Insights - The construction industry in May is characterized by "infrastructure improvement and real estate drag." Civil engineering construction saw a continuous improvement for two months, while the real estate chain showed weakness across all stages [4][15]. - The construction activity index decreased by 0.9 points to 51.0 in May, indicating a slowdown in the real estate sector [14][16]. Service Sector Performance - The service sector saw a slight improvement, with the PMI rising by 0.1 points to 50.2. Key drivers include travel-related sectors benefiting from the May Day holiday and a rebound in the water transport industry [6][17]. - The information technology service sector continues to perform well, driven by trends such as "AI+" and online consumption [6][17]. Summary of Key Insights - The "two new" policies are concentrated in sectors benefiting from tariff reductions, such as electrical machinery and computer electronics, which currently show high prosperity [5][6]. - The new generation information technology sector leads in emerging industries, while the service sector's IT services maintain a leading position [5][6]. - External uncertainties continue to impact sectors like textiles, pharmaceuticals, and biotechnology, as indicated by their performance data [5][6]. - The construction sector is experiencing a rise in prosperity due to accelerated issuance of special bonds and project implementations, although upstream material sectors remain under pressure due to real estate slowdowns [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The Zhongzheng Guangyin Wealth Management Hong Kong-Shenzhen Technology Leaders Index has shown a mixed performance, with a recent increase but a decline over the past three months, indicating volatility in the technology sector [1][2] Group 1: Index Performance - The Zhongzheng Guangyin Wealth Management Hong Kong-Shenzhen Technology Leaders Index rose by 1.15% to 2180.95 points, with a trading volume of 91.926 billion yuan [1] - Over the past month, the index has increased by 1.53%, while it has decreased by 6.24% over the last three months, and it has risen by 9.71% year-to-date [1] Group 2: Index Composition - The index comprises 50 large-cap listed companies from the information technology, biomedicine, and high-end manufacturing sectors, reflecting the overall performance of technology leaders in the mainland and Hong Kong markets [1] - The top ten holdings in the index include Alibaba-W (11.98%), Tencent Holdings (10.74%), Xiaomi Group-W (10.53%), CATL (8.42%), BYD Company (5.81%), and others [1] - The market distribution of the index holdings shows that the Hong Kong Stock Exchange accounts for 49.63%, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange for 28.12%, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange for 22.25% [1] Group 3: Industry Breakdown - The industry composition of the index holdings includes 31.19% in information technology, 23.16% in consumer discretionary, 18.11% in industrials, 15.02% in communication services, and 12.53% in healthcare [2] - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December [2]

Core Viewpoints - The article summarizes the insights from fund managers based on their Q1 2025 reports, focusing on their investment strategies and market outlooks [1]. Group 1: Fund Manager Perspectives - Fund managers typically cover two main areas in their reports: a review of past investments and future market outlooks, with the latter being more significant [3]. - Different fund managers exhibit varying levels of detail in their reports, influenced by their investment styles, such as value or growth [3]. - The deep value style emphasizes low valuations and high dividend yields, primarily investing in sectors like finance, real estate, and energy [4][5]. - Growth value style focuses on companies with strong profitability and cash flow, often holding stocks for the long term [10]. Group 2: Deep Value Style Insights - Deep value style has shown strong performance from 2021 to 2024, while it underperformed in 2019-2020 [6]. - Fund managers express confidence in their holdings despite market uncertainties, citing factors like geopolitical changes and technological advancements as influential [7]. - The current market environment is characterized by structural changes, with some sectors facing prolonged competition, while others show clear competitive advantages [7]. Group 3: Growth Value Style Insights - Growth value managers highlight the resilience of high-frequency economic data and improved financing conditions, suggesting a positive outlook for the second quarter [12]. - They emphasize the importance of focusing on domestic economic transformation and internal demand rather than external pressures [12][13]. - Fund managers are adjusting their portfolios to capitalize on sectors like AI and healthcare, anticipating a shift in consumer behavior and market dynamics [15][16]. Group 4: Balanced Style Insights - The balanced style seeks to combine growth potential with valuation, often looking for stocks that offer good value relative to their growth prospects [26]. - Fund managers maintain a diversified approach, focusing on sectors with favorable valuations and growth potential, such as healthcare and technology [29][30]. - They express optimism about domestic consumption policies and liquidity, which may support market performance despite external uncertainties [30]. Group 5: Growth Style Insights - The growth style prioritizes companies with high revenue and profit growth, often accepting higher valuations for strong growth potential [39][40]. - Fund managers are actively seeking opportunities in emerging industries, such as renewable energy and technology, which are expected to drive future growth [41].

Core Points - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.21%, while the Shanghai China Manufacturing Theme Index increased by 0.1%, closing at 1417.05 points with a trading volume of 40.378 billion yuan [1] - Over the past month, the Shanghai China Manufacturing Theme Index has increased by 2.74%, but it has decreased by 6.30% over the last three months and is down 3.76% year-to-date [1] - The index includes representative listed companies in sectors such as new generation information technology, high-end CNC machine tools and robotics, aerospace equipment, energy-saving and new energy vehicles, electric power equipment, new materials, biomedicine, and high-performance medical devices [1] Index Composition - The top ten weighted stocks in the Shanghai China Manufacturing Theme Index are: Wanhua Chemical (4.13%), Guodian NARI (3.56%), Longi Green Energy (3.54%), CRRC (3.43%), China Shipbuilding (2.72%), Kingsoft Office (2.55%), Tebian Electric (2.32%), United Imaging (2.2%), AVIC Shenyang Aircraft (2.03%), and China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation (1.95%) [1] - The index is fully composed of stocks listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, with a 100% representation [1] Industry Breakdown - The industry composition of the index shows that industrials account for 55.63%, information technology for 16.96%, materials for 14.03%, healthcare for 11.77%, and consumer discretionary for 1.62% [2] - The index samples are adjusted semi-annually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December each year [2] - Weight factors are generally fixed until the next scheduled adjustment, with special circumstances allowing for temporary adjustments [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article critiques the common investment framework that relies on predicting export data to derive macroeconomic indicators and corporate profits, arguing that this approach is fundamentally flawed due to the high difficulty in accurately forecasting export data [3]. Group 1: Flaws in Current Investment Framework - The article emphasizes that predicting export data leads to significant misjudgments in macroeconomic indicators, such as PPI and GDP, with a 10% misjudgment in exports potentially causing a 2% misjudgment in PPI and a 0.4-0.5% misjudgment in GDP [3]. - An example is provided where the market expected a 0-2% growth in April exports, but the actual growth was 8.1%, highlighting the fragility of investment decisions based on export predictions [3]. Group 2: Recommended Analysis Logic - The article suggests focusing on the status of the U.S. discretionary consumer sector as a more reliable indicator for assessing export trends [4]. - It discusses the importance of predicting the "turnover rate" of exports, which is influenced by global demand stability, particularly the U.S. import growth rate [4]. - The U.S. accounts for approximately 15-16% of global imports and about one-third of global final consumption, making its import growth a critical factor for global trade dynamics [4]. Group 3: U.S. Tariff Impact and Consumer Power - The article notes that the current academic research on U.S. tariff elasticity may not apply due to recent high tariff changes, complicating the assessment of tariffs' impact on imports [5]. - It emphasizes the need to evaluate whether U.S. consumers can absorb the impact of tariffs, which is crucial for maintaining corporate revenues and economic stability [5]. - The discretionary consumer sector is highlighted as particularly sensitive to tariff changes, with a focus on the performance of high-yield corporate bonds in this sector as an early indicator of risk [5]. Group 4: Current Investment Context and Insights - The article identifies "certainty" as the current investment backdrop, contrasting the Chinese government's stability-focused approach with the uncertainty generated by U.S. policies [6]. - It suggests that the volatility of the Chinese financial market is likely to be lower than that of the U.S. due to the government's commitment to market stability [6]. - The article provides three insights: the potential for lower asset price volatility compared to economic data volatility, the need for caution regarding mid-term risks, and the importance of monitoring institutional behaviors in the market [6][8]. Group 5: Investment Strategy - The recommended investment posture is "high allocation, low volatility," suggesting that investors should maintain a high allocation to capitalize on potential government interventions that may mitigate risks [8]. - The article argues that excessive pessimism is unwarranted in the current environment, as government actions may counterbalance some downward risks [8].

Group 1: Stock Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Geely Automobile, Xpeng Motors, Zoomlion, Sany Heavy Industry, Atour Group, Luckin Coffee, and Proya, all rated as "Buy" with target price increases ranging from 12% to 37%[5] - The average market capitalization of the recommended stocks is approximately $25 billion for Geely Automobile and $19.7 billion for Xpeng Motors[5] - The average daily trading volume for these stocks varies, with Geely Automobile at $200.2 million and Xpeng Motors at $248.2 million[5] Group 2: Financial Metrics - Price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for FY24A shows Geely Automobile at 10.90, while Xpeng Motors is not available (N/A)[5] - Return on equity (ROE) for FY24A is highest for Atour Group at 47.5%, while Xpeng Motors is N/A[5] - Dividend yield for FY24A is 1.7% for Geely Automobile and 5.4% for Xpeng Motors[5] Group 3: Performance Review - The basket of 22 stocks listed in the previous report had an average return of 6.0%, compared to the MSCI China Index return of 8.1%[9] - Out of the 22 stocks, 6 outperformed the benchmark index[9]

美股盘初，主要行业ETF多数走低，能源业ETF、可选消费ETF均跌超1%。 ...

从中证沪港深科技龙头指数持仓的市场板块来看，香港证券交易所占比54.65%、深圳证券交易所占比 29.20%、上海证券交易所占比16.15%。 从中证沪港深科技龙头指数持仓样本的行业来看，信息技术占比45.15%、可选消费占比19.87%、医药 卫生占比17.49%、通信服务占比12.98%、工业占比4.51%。 资料显示，指数样本每半年调整一次，样本调整实施时间分别为每年6月和12月的第二个星期五的下一 交易日。权重因子随样本定期调整而调整，调整时间与指数样本定期调整实施时间相同。在下一个定期 调整日前，权重因子一般固定不变。特殊情况下将对指数进行临时调整。当样本退市时，将其从指数样 本中剔除。样本公司发生收购、合并、分拆等情形的处理，参照计算与维护细则处理。当港股通证券范 围发生变动导致样本不再满足互联互通资格时，指数将进行调整。 金融界5月19日消息，A股三大指数收盘涨跌不一，中证沪港深科技龙头指数 (SHS科技龙头，931524)上 涨0.04%，报2185.36点，成交额764.57亿元。 数据统计显示，中证沪港深科技龙头指数近一个月上涨6.87%，近三个月下跌6.49%，年至今上涨 9.58%。 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 战略数据研究丨专题报告 [Table_Title] 价值稳健领涨风格——W109 市场观察 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 当周北向重仓 50 领涨；市场动速方面，风格轮动速度继续高位震荡；行业板块方面，金融板块 领涨行业，可选消费龙头显著超额行业基准；风格方面，价值类风格占优，价值稳健领涨风格； 主题方面，新型烟草、低碳领袖 30 涨幅靠前。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 陈洁敏 SAC：S0490518120005 SFC：BUT348 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title2] 价值稳健领涨风格——W109 市场观察 [Table_Summary2] 机构赚钱效应：北向重仓 50 领涨 市场动速：风格轮动速度继续高位震荡 行业板块：金融板块领涨行业，可选消费龙头显著超额行业基准 风格跟踪：价值类风格占优，价值稳健领涨风格 主题热点：新型烟草、低碳领袖 30 涨幅靠前 指数名称及代码 价值稳健 861303.CJ 新型烟草 862302.CJ 指数走势 资料来源：Wind，长江证券 ...

Group 1: Industry Performance - The healthcare ETF rose by 2.02%, while the biotechnology index ETF increased by 1.61% [1][3] - The global airline industry ETF saw a gain of 1.07%, and the consumer discretionary ETF rose by 0.95% [1][3] - The technology sector ETF and banking sector ETF had minimal increases, with gains of up to 0.19% [1][3] Group 2: ETF Specifics - The healthcare ETF closed at $133.09, with a change of +2.63 (+2.02%) and a total market value of $254.69 billion, down 2.88% year-to-date [3] - The biotechnology index ETF closed at $121.16, with a change of +1.92 (+1.61%) and a total market value of $96.20 billion, down 8.28% year-to-date [3] - The global airline ETF closed at $22.74, with a change of +0.24 (+1.07%) and a total market value of $716.31 million, down 10.30% year-to-date [3] Group 3: Sector Trends - The energy sector ETF decreased by 0.15%, while the semiconductor ETF fell by 0.29% [2][3] - The utilities sector ETF increased by 1.47%, closing at $82.18, with a total market value of $119.30 billion, up 9.35% year-to-date [3] - The consumer staples ETF rose by 1.15%, closing at $82.07, with a total market value of $138.88 billion, up 4.95% year-to-date [3]