Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend post-Spring Festival, driven by a combination of trend inertia, seasonal effects, and policy environment support [3] Market Characteristics - The A-share market is influenced by multiple factors, exhibiting a complex overall pattern characterized by clear trends, numerous short-term disturbances, and significant structural differentiation [1] - The core driving force for the market's upward trend is the self-propelling nature of the market, supported by regulatory measures to mitigate risks and prevent overheating [1][3] - Key support for the market's upward movement includes improving corporate profit outlooks, increased willingness of residents to invest savings, and ongoing policies to optimize industry competition [1][2] Short-term Market Dynamics - Short-term market fluctuations are influenced by holiday effects, with some funds opting to secure profits before the Lunar New Year, leading to a temporary decrease in trading activity [2] - The performance of U.S. tech giants, Federal Reserve policy, and geopolitical events indirectly affect the rotation of A-share industries [2] Investment Strategy - Post-Spring Festival, the investment logic will focus on "value supporting growth," with a shift from low-risk to high-risk preferences, emphasizing technology and cyclical price increases [5] - Five main investment lines are suggested: 1. AI industry chain focusing on application breakthroughs [5] 2. High dividend assets in stable cash flow sectors [5] 3. Anti-involution sectors benefiting from improved competition [5] 4. Core areas of domestic demand recovery, particularly in health and travel sectors [6] 5. Investment opportunities in strategic and industrial metals [6] Market Outlook - The market is expected to experience a "red envelope market" post-Spring Festival, with potential for further expansion due to the current market's performance being below historical averages [3] - The growth of the A-share market is anticipated to be independent of the overall yearly trend, with a focus on technology growth while balancing risks across multiple sectors [6]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic non-ferrous metal market is experiencing significant differentiation, with basic metals like copper, aluminum, and zinc showing notable declines, while small metals such as tungsten and rare earths are performing strongly, indicating a distinct market trend [2][3]. Market Performance - Tungsten prices have reached historical highs, with black tungsten concentrate (≥65%, domestic) priced at 696,700.00 CNY/ton on February 11, 2026, up approximately 53.7% from 453,200.00 CNY/ton on December 31, 2025 [3]. - Ammonium paratungstate (88.5%, domestic) increased from 668,500.00 CNY/ton to 1,013,500.00 CNY/ton, a rise of 51.61% [3]. - Rare earth prices have also surged, with domestic praseodymium-neodymium oxide (≥99%, Nd2O3 75%) reaching 860,000.00 CNY/ton, a 39.3% increase from 617,500.00 CNY/ton [3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of small metals is characterized by strong rigidity and superior demand structure, supported by policies such as export controls and environmental restrictions, which enhance their strategic attributes [2][5]. - The global mining sector is in a weak supply cycle with limited new capacity, while demand is bolstered by the green energy transition and advancements in production technology [5][9]. Investment Outlook - Companies in the small metal sector are expected to report positive earnings in 2025, with rare earths, antimony, and tungsten being particularly favored due to tight supply and emerging demand [2][7]. - Notable earnings forecasts include Northern Rare Earth's projected net profit of 2.176 to 2.356 billion CNY for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 116.67% to 134.60% [7]. Market Trends - The rare earth sector is anticipated to improve significantly in 2025, driven by sustained high prices, with neodymium oxide prices expected to rise by 58.29% [7][8]. - Analysts predict that tungsten prices will maintain a high level and show a strong upward trend due to ongoing supply-demand tightness and strategic importance [10]. Internal Market Differentiation - Despite the overall positive outlook for small metals, some segments, such as magnesium, are underperforming, with magnesium ingot prices showing only a 4.08% increase [6]. - Industry leaders are adjusting asset prices to alleviate operational pressures, reflecting the current challenges faced in the magnesium sector [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese rare earth market experienced a decline of 4.35% on February 13, with a trading volume of 1.902 billion yuan and a market capitalization of 59.237 billion yuan [1] Company Overview - The company primarily engages in the production and operation of rare earth oxides and provides rare earth technology research and consulting services [2][8] - The main products include high-purity rare earth oxides, with over 80% of products having a purity greater than 99.99%, and some reaching 99.9999% [2] - The company is controlled by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council, categorizing it as a state-owned enterprise [3][4] Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.494 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 27.73%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 192 million yuan, up 194.67% year-on-year [8] - Cumulative cash dividends since the company's A-share listing amount to 346 million yuan, with 124 million yuan distributed over the past three years [9] Shareholder Structure - As of September 30, 2025, the top ten circulating shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited and Southern CSI 500 ETF, with notable changes in shareholding [10] - The number of shareholders decreased to 191,400, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 2.24% [8]

Market Performance - On the last trading day before the holiday, all three major A-share indices fell collectively, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.26% to 4082 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 1.28%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.57% [1] - The total market turnover approached 2 trillion yuan, a decrease of 161.8 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with over 3800 stocks declining [1] Sector Performance - The CPO concept saw a significant decline, with Changxin Bochuang dropping over 11% [1] - The photovoltaic equipment sector weakened, with Shuangliang Energy hitting the daily limit down [1] - The small metals sector experienced widespread declines, with Yunlu Co. and Longci Technology both falling over 5% [1] - The glass and fiberglass sector also weakened, led by Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass [1] - The shipping and port, F5G concept, titanium dioxide, and Kimi concept sectors had notable declines [1] - Conversely, the shipbuilding sector rose, with Yaxing Anchor Chain hitting the daily limit up [1] - The commercial aerospace sector surged following the successful completion of China's first rocket first-stage body sea recovery mission, with Hangfa Power hitting the daily limit up [1] - The robotics sector was active, led by Wuzhou New Spring [1] - The aquaculture, motor, and reducer sectors showed notable gains [1] Index Performance - Shanghai Composite Index: 4082.07, down 51.95 points (-1.26%) [1] - Shenzhen Component Index: 14100.19, down 182.81 points (-1.28%) [1] - ChiNext Index: 3275.96, down 52.10 points (-1.57%) [1] - Other indices such as the CSI 300, CSI 500, and others also reported declines [1]

Group 1 - The stock price of China Rare Earth has decreased by 3.27% to 56.45 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 2.92 billion CNY and a market capitalization of 599.06 billion CNY as of February 13 [1] - Year-to-date, the stock price has increased by 21.55%, with a 9.19% rise in the last five trading days, 6.33% in the last 20 days, and 16.97% in the last 60 days [2] - The company reported a revenue of 2.494 billion CNY for the period from January to September 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 27.73%, and a net profit of 192 million CNY, up 194.67% year-on-year [2] Group 2 - The main business revenue composition of China Rare Earth includes 63.51% from rare earth oxides, 35.95% from rare earth metals and alloys, and 0.18% from technical services [2] - As of January 30, 2025, the number of shareholders is 191,400, a decrease of 2.19%, with an average of 5,544 circulating shares per person, an increase of 2.24% [2] - The company has distributed a total of 346 million CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 124 million CNY distributed in the last three years [3]

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.70%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.67%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.96% [1] - Shipbuilding, aerospace, and semiconductors showed the highest gains, while small metals, photovoltaic equipment, and shipping ports collectively retreated [1] ETF Performance - The top five ETFs by increase were: - France CAC40 ETF (513080) up 3.11% - China-Korea Semiconductor ETF (513310) up 2.35% - Sci-Tech Semiconductor Equipment ETF (589020) up 2.32% - Sci-Tech Semiconductor ETF (588170) up 2.21% - Sci-Tech Semiconductor Equipment ETF (588710) up 2.14% [1] - The top five ETFs by decrease were: - Oil and Gas ETF (561760) down 3.63% - Oil ETF (561360) down 3.60% - Oil and Gas ETF (159309) down 3.58% - Oil and Gas ETF (561570) down 3.50% - Oil ETF (159697) down 3.30% [1] ETF Trading Volume - The top ten ETFs by trading volume included: - A500 ETF Fund (512050) with a volume of 9.776 billion - A500 ETF Huatai-PB (563360) with 7.270 billion - CSI A500 ETF (159338) with 5.846 billion - A500 ETF Southern (159352) with 5.665 billion - Gold ETF (518880) with 4.225 billion - A500 ETF E Fund (159361) with 3.106 billion - Hang Seng Technology ETF (513130) with 3.105 billion - Hong Kong Securities ETF E Fund (513090) with 2.785 billion - CSI 500 ETF (510500) with 2.601 billion - Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180) with 2.303 billion [2]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a collective decline in the morning session, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.70%, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.67%, and the ChiNext Index down by 0.96% [1] Industry Performance - The military equipment sector led the gains with an increase of 2.09%, followed by the paper industry at 1.58%, and computer equipment at 1.30% [2] - Other sectors that showed positive performance include the breeding industry (0.75%), automotive parts (0.71%), and battery (0.71%) [2] Declining Sectors - The oil and gas extraction and services sector saw the largest decline at -2.15%, followed by photovoltaic equipment at -1.95%, and small metals also at -1.95% [2] - Additional sectors with notable declines include port shipping (-1.88%), steel (-1.88%), and communication equipment (-1.35%) [2]

Core Viewpoint - The data indicates significant outflows of main funds from various stocks, highlighting potential investment risks in the affected sectors. Group 1: Stock Outflows - The top stock with the largest outflow is Liou Co., with a fund outflow of 1.17 billion [1] - Zijin Mining follows closely with an outflow of 1.125 billion [1] - Bona Film Group experienced an outflow of 974 million [1] - Jiecheng Co. had a fund outflow of 914 million [1] - BlueFocus Media saw an outflow of 860 million [1] Group 2: Sector Analysis - The internet services sector, represented by Liou Co. and Wangsu Science & Technology, shows notable outflows of 1.17 billion and 596 million respectively [1][2] - The cultural media sector, including Bona Film Group and Jiecheng Co., experienced significant outflows totaling 1.888 billion [1][2] - The battery sector, represented by Ningde Times, had an outflow of 616 million, indicating potential concerns in this industry [1][2] - The photovoltaic equipment sector, with companies like Xiexin Integration and Sunshine Power, also faced outflows of 569 million and 501 million respectively [1][2] Group 3: Performance Metrics - Liou Co. had a slight increase in stock price by 1.21% despite the outflow [2] - In contrast, Jiecheng Co. experienced a significant decline of 11.51% alongside its outflow [2] - The overall trend shows that many companies with high outflows also faced negative stock performance, indicating a correlation between fund outflows and stock price declines [2][3]

机场航运（核心股）、饮料、旅游酒店（核心股）、白酒（核心股）、零售、多元金融等涨幅靠前。 市场焦点股雅博股份（4板）高开2.29%，AI应用端的掌阅科技（4板）高开5.94%、德才股份（4板）低开2.76%，算力 （核心股）租赁板块大位科技（4板）竞价涨停、豫能控股（2板）竞价涨停，光纤概念（核心股）股特发信息（7天4板）低开 2.56%、金时科技（2板）高开5.31%，有色金属（核心股）板块翔鹭钨业（5天3板）低开2.39%、章源钨业（2板）高开 3.52%，电子布概念股宏和科技（2板）高开0.08%、中材科技（2板）平开。 沪指开盘跌0.44%，报4115.92点，深成指跌0.66%，报14188.35点，创业板指跌0.56%，报3309.43点，科创50指数跌 0.72%，报1470.26点。沪深两市合计成交额199.77亿元，全市场近3000只个股下跌。 盘面上，能源金属、贵金属（核心股）、油气、小金属、工业金属、影视（核心股）院线、通信设备等行业跌幅居前。 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights that the non-ferrous metal industry is expected to experience a revaluation opportunity in 2026, driven by the resonance of financial attributes and industrial trends, with industrial metals and strategic minor metals as the focus and precious metals as a hedge [1][2] - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metal sector in 2025 showed a structural upward trend due to supply-demand mismatches and macroeconomic easing, with a significant annual increase of 94.73%, outperforming the broader market by 67% [2][8] - The investment theme for 2026 centers on the dual drivers of financial attributes and industrial trends within the non-ferrous sector, with minor metals showing the most growth potential, precious metals in a performance realization phase, and industrial metals as a balanced foundational choice [2][40] Industry Performance Review - In 2025, the non-ferrous metal sector was a market focus due to its significant excess returns, with industrial and energy metals leading the gains, followed by minor and precious metals [8] - The rotation pattern observed in 2025 featured precious metals leading, followed by minor metals, and industrial metals making a strong finish [8] 2026 Macroeconomic and Market Outlook - The macroeconomic environment for 2026 is characterized by a transition into a bull market's second phase, driven by profit growth, with a focus on domestic demand stabilization and price recovery [15][20] - A weak dollar cycle is anticipated to support commodity prices, with historical patterns indicating that a weaker dollar correlates with higher commodity prices [16][18] - Geopolitical risks are expected to reinforce the rigidity of resource supply, leading to structural constraints in key resource commodities [17] Investment Themes for 2026 - Industrial metals are expected to benefit from a tightening supply due to long-term investment cycles and geopolitical factors, with copper prices likely to find solid support amid a balanced supply-demand landscape [41][42] - Strategic minor metals, such as rare earths, are entering a phase of systematic revaluation driven by supply constraints and policy support, with significant growth potential linked to emerging industries [44][52] - Precious metals maintain a strong long-term investment logic, with performance realization expected to aid in valuation recovery [40][61] Specific Insights on Industrial Metals - Copper, as a representative of industrial metals, is expected to see a tightening supply due to long-term investment cycles, with demand growth driven by emerging green industries [41][42] - The financial attributes of copper are enhanced in a weak dollar environment, which is expected to support its price in the long term [42] Specific Insights on Strategic Minor Metals - The rare earth sector is highlighted for its strategic importance, with China's dominance in supply and recent export control measures reinforcing its pricing power [52][53] - Demand for rare earths is expected to grow steadily due to their critical role in emerging industries such as electric vehicles and renewable energy [57][59] Conclusion - The non-ferrous metal industry is poised for a revaluation in 2026, driven by a combination of financial and industrial factors, with specific focus areas including industrial metals, strategic minor metals, and precious metals [1][2][40]