一轮牛市，人们只会记得最后的"疯"，很少有人记得它之前往往是漫长、枯燥、甚至伴随质疑声的"慢"。 2015年的疯牛，真正的起点在2013年； 2021年大家口口声声说是牛市，但上证指数全年几乎横着走，赚钱效应主要来自中小盘和赛道股。 今天的A股，又一次站在类似的阶段： 指数不算耀眼，情绪时冷时热，但结构已经发生了关键变化。 我的核心判断是： 这轮牛市尚未结束，仍处在从"慢热"走向"发酵"的阶段，未来3个月，A股有较大概率走出类似2014年底那种"先挖坑、再 拉升"的节奏，春节前后或是情绪爆点。 下面我们从资金、政策、结构和时间节奏四个维度，把这件事讲清楚。 一、情绪冰冷，往往不是牛市结束，而是主升浪的酝酿期 很多人这两年最大的感受是： "指数没涨多少，我的账户怎么反而更难做了？" "明明新闻天天说利好，怎么盘面老是阴晴不定？" 如果只盯着指数，你确实很难判断牛熊。 从几个关键"现象"看，目前更符合"牛市中段，而非尾声"的特征： 散户参与度并不高 新开户数据温和，没有出现2015年那种开户潮。 银行存款搬家迹象有限，居民资金并未大规模杀入股市。 社交网络上"炒股一夜翻倍"的故事极少，讨论热度远未"泛滥"。 场内 ...

Core Viewpoint - Kede CNC (688305) is recognized as a leading enterprise in high-end five-axis machine tools in China, having received national-level support and investment during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [2][3] Group 1: Company Achievements - Kede CNC has been awarded the title of a national-level specialized and innovative "little giant" enterprise during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2] - The company has an average annual R&D investment ratio exceeding 30% over the past five years, developing over 40 types of high-end five-axis machine tools tailored for critical sectors such as aerospace, aviation, and military [2] - Kede CNC has delivered more than 1,600 high-end five-axis machine tools to key enterprises like Aerospace Science and Technology, Aerospace Industry, and AVIC, becoming a crucial support for core component manufacturing [2] Group 2: Innovation and R&D - The company leads in innovation, having undertaken 44 national major science and technology projects and 30 other national and local R&D projects, while participating in the formulation of 24 national standards and 11 industry standards [2] - Kede CNC holds an impressive average of 25.17 valid invention patents per hundred employees and 6.39 international invention patents [2] - The company has accelerated technology iteration and ecosystem building, collaborating with Longxin Zhongke and universities on the development of a domestic CPU intelligent CNC system [3] Group 3: Future Plans - Looking towards the "15th Five-Year Plan," Kede CNC aims to anchor national strategies, leverage its advantages in independent innovation, and deeply integrate into the construction of a modern industrial system [3] - The company aspires to be a pioneer in technological innovation and to create a platform for value creation, contributing significantly to China's transition from a manufacturing giant to a manufacturing powerhouse [3]

Core Viewpoint - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the construction of a modern industrial system, reflecting a strategic shift in China's economic development focus, particularly in response to current domestic and international challenges [2][3][4]. Group 1: Modern Industrial System - The prioritization of "building a modern industrial system" signifies a shift towards strengthening the real economy, which is essential for sustainable growth and resilience against external shocks [4][7]. - The plan aims to transform traditional industries, which currently account for about 80% of the economy, into new growth drivers, potentially creating a market worth trillions [4][8]. - The integration of technological innovation with industrial development is crucial, as it ensures that breakthroughs in technology can be effectively applied within the industrial framework [3][8]. Group 2: Future Industries - The plan outlines six key future industries: quantum technology, biomanufacturing, hydrogen energy, nuclear fusion, brain-computer interfaces, and sixth-generation mobile communications, chosen for their potential to drive economic growth and strategic importance [11][19]. - These industries are expected to contribute significantly to China's high-tech sector, with the goal of achieving a "doubling" of high-tech industries over the next decade [18][19]. - The selection of these industries considers their original innovation potential, market prospects, and alignment with national security needs [11][19]. Group 3: Policy and Investment Strategies - The government is advised to adopt a differentiated approach to funding and policy support for traditional, strategic emerging, and future industries, ensuring that resources are allocated effectively without neglecting any sector [9][10]. - The establishment of a guiding fund for future industries is recommended to attract private investment while managing risks associated with high uncertainty in these sectors [22][23]. - The focus on nurturing "unicorn" and "gazelle" companies is essential for fostering innovation and ensuring a dynamic ecosystem that supports both large enterprises and startups [24][23]. Group 4: Technological Innovation and Social Impact - The plan highlights the importance of integrating social considerations into technological innovation, particularly regarding the impact of artificial intelligence on employment and income distribution [31][37]. - A balanced approach is necessary to ensure that technological advancements do not exacerbate social inequalities, aligning with the broader goals of shared prosperity and sustainable development [37][38]. - The governance of artificial intelligence must evolve through interdisciplinary collaboration to address its societal implications effectively [38].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the transformation of Yangchun City in Guangdong from an agriculture-based economy to a burgeoning industrial hub, focusing on the development of the industrial mother machine sector, which has become a key driver for local economic growth [2][3][4]. Group 1: Industrial Development - Yangchun has successfully established an industrial cluster centered around industrial mother machines, with 41 projects expected to generate an annual output value exceeding 6.6 billion yuan [5][43]. - The city signed 25 projects at an investment conference in Shenzhen, with a total investment of 27.38 billion yuan, covering various sectors including new energy and intelligent home appliances [6][7]. - The manufacturing sector is transitioning from traditional manufacturing to intelligent manufacturing, with an expected output value of 4.867 billion yuan in 2024 [8][9]. Group 2: Strategic Decisions - In 2017, Yangchun identified the industrial mother machine industry as a strategic focus amid a backdrop of traditional industry stagnation [19][20]. - The city implemented a "land use guarantee + facility support + service innovation" strategy to attract investments, aiming to become a stronghold for advanced equipment manufacturing in the Pearl River Delta [22][24]. - The successful introduction of leading enterprises, such as Shengze Machinery, has created a chain reaction, attracting additional companies to the region [25][34]. Group 3: Innovation and Upgrading - The production facilities in Yangchun are increasingly adopting intelligent production lines, enhancing efficiency and precision in manufacturing [47][49]. - The second Industrial Mother Machine Industry Conference showcased advancements in technology and established a three-year action plan for future development [54][57]. - The action plan aims for a cluster scale exceeding 15 billion yuan by 2028, with a focus on innovation and local supply chain integration [60][62]. Group 4: Ecosystem and Collaboration - The industrial ecosystem in Yangchun is evolving, with a focus on building a complete supply chain from core components to assembly [74][76]. - The city is actively enhancing its industrial chain by attracting upstream and downstream enterprises, thereby improving local procurement and reducing production costs [77][78]. - Yangchun's unique geographical and cost advantages, including low industrial land costs and utility rates, position it favorably within the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [84][86]. Group 5: Lessons for Other Regions - Yangchun's experience in developing the industrial mother machine sector offers valuable insights for other counties, emphasizing the importance of long-term commitment and strategic focus [96][98]. - The city has optimized its business environment through innovative service models, enhancing its attractiveness to investors [101][102]. - Yangchun has effectively addressed talent shortages by collaborating with educational institutions to cultivate skilled workers [105][106].

Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines China's development blueprint for the next five years, emphasizing the importance of understanding it to identify future investment opportunities [2][16]. Group 1: Emerging Industries and Investment Opportunities - The plan aims to cultivate and expand emerging and future industries, potentially creating several trillion-level markets [7]. - The next decade could see the scale of new industries equivalent to recreating China's high-tech industry [7]. Group 2: Key Focus Areas for Technological Advancement - The plan emphasizes the need for breakthroughs in critical core technologies across various sectors, including integrated circuits, industrial mother machines, and high-end instruments [8]. - It highlights the role of enterprises in driving technological innovation and supporting the growth of high-tech and technology-oriented SMEs [9]. Group 3: Domestic Market Development - The strategy includes measures to strengthen the domestic market and facilitate a smooth domestic circulation, focusing on expanding consumption and developing international consumer center cities [10][11]. - It calls for a shift from price competition to quality competition among enterprises to establish a healthy market order [11]. Group 4: National Security and Emerging Fields - The plan addresses the need to enhance security capabilities in traditional areas like food and energy, as well as emerging fields such as artificial intelligence and biotechnology [12]. - This focus on security is expected to create new development opportunities in sectors like cybersecurity, national defense, and energy resources [12]. Group 5: Investment Themes in A-Share Market - Five key investment themes are identified: hard technology sectors such as artificial intelligence, integrated circuits, industrial mother machines, new energy, and biomanufacturing [14]. - The plan aims to rectify disorderly competition, which may benefit leading companies in solar energy, lithium batteries, and new energy vehicles [14]. - There is a strong emphasis on boosting consumption in sectors like automotive, housing, and tourism, indicating potential growth in these areas [14]. - The implementation of major national strategies and the enhancement of security capabilities are expected to drive growth in industries like construction materials, machinery, new energy, and cybersecurity [14]. - The financial sector is also highlighted, with banks, securities, and insurance institutions currently valued at historical lows, suggesting potential for recovery [14].

Group 1: R&D Expense Deduction Policies - The R&D expense deduction policy applies to resident enterprises with sound accounting practices, excluding certain industries such as tobacco manufacturing, accommodation, and real estate [3] - Integrated circuit and industrial mother machine enterprises can deduct 120% of actual R&D expenses incurred from January 1, 2023, to December 31, 2027, if these expenses do not form intangible assets [4] - For R&D expenses that form intangible assets, these enterprises can amortize 220% of the cost of the intangible assets during the same period [4] Group 2: Other Enterprises - Other enterprises can deduct 100% of actual R&D expenses incurred from January 1, 2023, if these expenses do not form intangible assets [6] - For R&D expenses that form intangible assets, these enterprises can amortize 200% of the cost of the intangible assets starting January 1, 2023 [7] Group 3: Employment of Disabled Persons - Enterprises that employ disabled persons can deduct 100% of the wages paid to disabled employees when calculating taxable income, in addition to the actual wage deductions [9] Group 4: Basic Research Expenditure - From January 1, 2022, enterprises can deduct actual expenditures for basic research contributions to non-profit scientific research institutions, universities, and government natural science funds, with an additional 100% deduction allowed [12] Group 5: Policy References - The article references several key policies and announcements related to R&D expense deductions and tax incentives for employing disabled persons, including notices from the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation [13]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry but suggests a focus on specific companies for investment opportunities [11]. Core Insights - The report highlights the increasing tension in Sino-Japanese relations, suggesting a need for China to focus on self-sufficiency in industrial machinery, particularly in core components like CNC systems and lead screws [5][23]. - The deep cooling equipment sector is experiencing significant growth, with a notable increase in new orders for leading companies, indicating a favorable environment for Chinese firms to expand internationally [5][24]. - Siemens Energy has reported a substantial increase in gas turbine orders, which bodes well for domestic suppliers like Yingliu, suggesting a robust demand for turbine blades [5][24]. - The report categorizes various segments of the machinery industry, indicating differing levels of economic performance, with general machinery under pressure, while engineering machinery is accelerating upward [5][25][47]. Summary by Sections 1. Stock Portfolio - Recommended stocks include Huazhong CNC, Zhongtai Co., and Yingliu [11]. 2. Market Review - The SW Machinery Equipment Index fell by 2.22% in the last week, ranking 28th among 31 sectors, while it has risen by 31.88% year-to-date, ranking 7th [13][17]. 3. Core Insights Update - The report emphasizes the need for China to develop self-sufficiency in industrial machinery due to geopolitical tensions, and it identifies key companies to watch in this context [5][23]. - The deep cooling equipment sector is highlighted for its growth potential, with significant order increases reported by leading firms [5][24]. - The gas turbine market is also noted for its high demand, particularly benefiting companies like Yingliu [5][24]. 4. Key Data Tracking 4.1 General Machinery - The general machinery sector is under pressure, with the PMI at 49.0%, indicating contraction [25]. 4.2 Engineering Machinery - The engineering machinery sector is showing signs of recovery, with excavator sales increasing by 7.8% year-on-year [35]. 4.3 Railway Equipment - The railway equipment sector is experiencing steady growth, with fixed asset investment maintaining around 6% [47]. 4.4 Shipbuilding - The shipbuilding sector is seeing a slowdown, with new ship price indices indicating a decline [48]. 4.5 Oilfield Equipment - The oilfield equipment sector is stabilizing at the bottom, with ongoing high demand in the Middle East [50]. 4.6 Industrial Gases - The industrial gases sector is expected to benefit from improved steel profitability and increased downstream activity [56]. 4.7 Gas Turbines - The gas turbine sector is experiencing robust growth, with significant new orders reported [58].

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China and six other departments issued guidelines to support new industrialization through financial mechanisms, with major banks like China Construction Bank and Bank of China implementing related plans to enhance financial support for key industries [1][2]. Financial Support for New Industrialization - Key industries such as integrated circuits, industrial mother machines, and new materials are identified as foundational for modern industrial systems, with banks encouraged to provide long-term financing for technological advancements [2]. - China Construction Bank aims to allocate over 5 trillion yuan in financing to various manufacturing entities over the next three years, focusing on critical areas and weak links in new industrialization [2]. - Bank of China reported a supply chain financing balance and loans to technology enterprises exceeding 2.3 trillion yuan as of June, indicating robust growth [2]. Service Upgrades and Innovations - China Everbright Bank introduced a comprehensive financial service plan with 40 initiatives to support new industrialization, including a supply chain service action to enhance resilience and security [3]. - The banking sector is shifting towards a more holistic approach to financing technology firms, with a focus on assessing technology and team capabilities rather than traditional credit metrics [4]. - As of Q3, 275,400 technology SMEs received loans, with a loan approval rate of 50.3%, reflecting a 2.8 percentage point increase year-on-year [4]. Financing Channels and Ecosystem Development - The banking sector is enhancing its support for technology innovation through various financial instruments, including technology innovation bonds and intellectual property pledge loans [7]. - China Construction Bank has actively participated in the issuance of technology innovation bonds, with the first bond launched in May aimed at funding technology firms and strategic emerging industries [7]. - The ecosystem for technology finance is structured in layers, with venture capital and private equity at the forefront, followed by government-led investments and traditional banking support [7][8]. Conclusion - The concerted efforts by various banks to align their financial services with the needs of new industrialization highlight a strategic shift towards supporting technological innovation and enhancing the resilience of supply chains in key industries [1][2][3][4][7][8].

Core Points - The report meeting on the spirit of the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session was held in Hanzhong, emphasizing the importance of understanding and implementing the session's spirit [1] - The report highlighted the significance of the "14th Five-Year Plan" period in achieving socialist modernization and outlined the guiding principles and main goals for economic and social development during this period [1] - The meeting called for a focus on building a modern industrial system centered around aviation equipment and industrial mother machines to stimulate domestic demand and contribute to the decisive progress in achieving socialist modernization [1] Summary by Sections - **Importance of the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session**: The session's spirit is crucial for guiding future development and policy implementation [1] - **"14th Five-Year Plan" Goals**: The report detailed the strategic tasks and major initiatives for economic and social development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [1] - **Local Implementation**: Local officials expressed commitment to integrating the session's spirit into Hanzhong's development plans, particularly in enhancing the modern industrial system [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming tax reduction policy aimed at encouraging technological innovation in China, particularly through increasing the R&D expense deduction ratio for high-tech enterprises and technology-based SMEs during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period [3][4]. Group 1: R&D Expense Deduction Policy - The R&D expense deduction ratio in China has been progressively increased from 50% in 2017 to 100% in 2023, allowing companies to deduct double their R&D expenses from taxable income [5][6]. - The new policy is expected to raise the deduction ratio for high-tech enterprises and technology-based SMEs from the current 100% to potentially 120% or even higher, incentivizing increased R&D investment [7][8]. - The current international standard for R&D tax incentives shows that countries like the U.S. and Germany offer higher deduction ratios, indicating room for improvement in China's policies [8][9]. Group 2: Importance of Targeting High-Tech Enterprises - High-tech enterprises and technology-based SMEs are crucial for China's innovation system, often facing significant R&D costs and funding shortages [6][10]. - The proposed increase in the deduction ratio is seen as a direct way to reduce tax burdens and enable these companies to allocate more resources to R&D and innovation [6][10]. Group 3: Future Policy Recommendations - Experts suggest that simply increasing the deduction ratio may lead to diminishing returns, and future policies should focus on enhancing the quality of R&D rather than just the quantity [12][13]. - Recommendations include introducing a mechanism for R&D expense increment credits and a patent box system to encourage high-quality patent utilization [12][13]. - There is a call for differentiated deduction ratios based on company size, industry, and R&D intensity, with suggestions for higher ratios for companies with significant R&D investments [13][14]. Group 4: Implementation and Optimization - The article emphasizes the need for simplifying the implementation process of the R&D expense deduction policy to enhance accessibility for companies [14]. - Suggestions include transitioning from prior approval to post-filing management and utilizing big data for monitoring R&D activities, thereby reducing compliance costs [14]. - The importance of establishing clear standards for R&D expense categorization and providing authoritative guidelines is highlighted to ensure consistent application across regions [14][15].