证券研究报告 信用业务周报 中央经济工作会议后市场或如何演绎？ 2025年12月15日 2 【市场观察】中央经济工作会议落地对市场有何影响？ ➢ 一、中央经济工作会议落地对市场有何影响？ 中泰证券研究所 分析师：徐驰 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 分析师：张文宇 执业证书编号：S0740520120003 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明 【市场回顾】 图表：市场表现回顾 数据来源：Wind，中泰证券研究所 3 ➢ 上周两大会议落地。12月8日（周一）政治局会议通稿发布后，市场反应较为平淡，纳斯达克中 国金龙指数当日收涨仅0.08%，次日A股上证指数收跌0.37%。12月11日（周四）中央经济工作 会议通稿发布后市场波动增大，纳斯达克金龙指数当日高开0.7%，盘中一度涨幅超过1%，随后 回落收跌0.3%，次日上证指数上涨0.41%，万得全A涨幅达0.77%，科技板块提振尤为明显。 ➢ 本次两大会议对经济整体形势判断定调偏乐观，同时预示2026年经济总量政策将维持定力。财政 政策强调"保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量，规范税收优惠、财政补贴政策"，这 意味着在"反内卷"的要求下，整体 ...

Economic Data Overview - In November, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 43,898 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.3% [1] - From January to November, the total retail sales amounted to 456,067 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.0% [1] - Sales of essential and some upgraded products saw significant growth, with food, communication equipment, and cultural office supplies increasing by 6.1%, 20.6%, and 11.7% respectively [1] Service Consumption Growth - Service retail sales grew by 5.4% year-on-year from January to November, with an acceleration of 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous ten months [1][5] - Notable growth was observed in leisure services, communication services, tourism consulting, and transportation services [5] - The share of service consumption in total consumption is increasing, with residents' spending on services reaching 46.1% of per capita consumption, expected to exceed 50% by 2030 [6] "Old for New" Policy Impact - The "old for new" policy has driven sales exceeding 2.5 trillion yuan, benefiting over 360 million people, with significant contributions from home appliances and digital products [2] - The automotive sector also saw production and sales surpassing 31 million units, with growth rates exceeding 10% year-on-year, aided by the "old for new" initiative [2] Policy Directions for 2026 - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized optimizing the implementation of the "two new" policies, focusing on long-term cultivation rather than short-term stimulation [3][4] - Future support will shift towards new productive forces, including low-altitude economy sectors like aircraft manufacturing and airspace management systems [3] Rural and County Consumption - Rural retail sales grew by 4.4% year-on-year, outpacing urban growth of 3.9%, indicating significant potential in rural markets [8] - The recent notification from the Ministry of Commerce highlights the importance of expanding county-level consumption and upgrading rural consumption [9] Financial Support for Consumption - The notification outlines increased financial support for consumer goods and services, including personal consumption loans and innovative financial products [9][10] - Emphasis is placed on enhancing collaboration between financial institutions and local departments to effectively implement these measures [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the consumer sector, emphasizing the importance of domestic demand and consumption recovery [1]. Core Insights - The consumer sector experienced a decline across various segments, with notable drops in retail, social services, food and beverage, beauty care, home appliances, and textiles [3]. - High-end liquor, particularly Moutai, is showing signs of bottoming out despite a significant price drop, indicating potential recovery as demand stabilizes [3]. - The central economic work conference highlighted the commitment to boosting domestic consumption, with policies aimed at increasing residents' income and optimizing supply of quality goods and services [3]. - The report suggests focusing on service consumption sectors, which have room for growth compared to developed countries [3]. Summary by Sections Market Weekly Review - The consumer sector saw a broad decline, with specific weekly performance metrics indicating negative trends across various sub-sectors [3][5]. - Notable stock performances included significant gains for certain companies, while others faced substantial losses [3][13][14]. Industry News and Key Company Announcements - Recent regulatory approvals and policy initiatives are expected to impact various sectors, including tourism and electric vehicles, with a focus on enhancing consumer experiences and market growth [15][16][19]. - Companies like Tim Hortons and others reported positive financial results, indicating resilience in the consumer market despite broader sector challenges [19][20].

证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2025 年 12 月 15 日 服务消费是提高居民消费率的主要抓手之一 显微镜下的中国经济（2025 年第 47 期） 频率：每周 当前，释放服务消费潜力对提高居民消费的边际空间更大，地方政府的手段更 多。因此，我们预计未来五年服务消费是提高居民消费率的关键因素。 定期报告 相关报告 1、《央国企动态系列报告之 53 ——央国企整合呈现多元模 式，契合"十五五"盘活主 线》2025-12-15 2、《大国协调下的地缘冲突— ——国际时政周评》2025-12-14 3、《还需一点催化剂——宏观 与大类资产周报》2025-12-14 张一平 S1090513080007 zhangyiping@cmschina.com.cn 张静静 S1090522050003 zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 数据显示，2024 年我国居民消费率仅为 39.9%，同年美国居民消费率为 67.9%，韩国居民消费率也比我国高接近 10 个百分点左右，数据为 48.5%。"十五五"规划明确指出要提高居民消费率，这对于构建强大的国 内市场具有决定性的意 ...

Economic Overview - GDP growth for January to November is reported at 4.9%, slightly down from 4.8% in November[1] - Industrial production growth remains weak, with a decline of 1.1% in fixed asset investment for the same period[1] Consumption Trends - Retail sales growth is under pressure, with a 1.3% increase in November, while service consumption shows improvement[4] - The retail sector is experiencing a decline in durable goods, with a notable drop of 7.7% in November[6] Manufacturing Sector - Manufacturing investment has decreased significantly, with a decline of 12.2% year-to-date[11] - The manufacturing sector's growth rate has slowed, with a drop of 4.45% in November compared to the previous year[11] Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure investment shows a narrowing decline, with a year-to-date drop of 1.1%[15] - Policy support is expected to stabilize some of the downturn in infrastructure investment, with projections for improvement in 2026[15] Real Estate Market - Real estate investment continues to weaken, with a year-to-date decline of 14.7%[22] - Residential sales prices are falling, with new and second-hand home prices decreasing by 1.2% and 2.2% respectively in November[22]

Group 1 - The central economic work conference has set the tone for 2026 economic work, with expectations for a "cross-year market" and "spring excitement" rising among broker reports [1] - The policy focus on "expanding domestic demand and countering involution" is expected to lead the market out of deflation, with technology sectors like AI computing power and commercial aerospace being key offensive directions [1][4] - There is a growing preference for low-volatility, high-dividend assets, indicating a potential market style switch [1][3] Group 2 - Citic Securities suggests seeking intersection in configurations, focusing on products with overseas exposure and positive changes in domestic demand as catalysts [2] - The report emphasizes that while external demand products have been validated, the potential for exceeding expectations is limited, and investors' low expectations could lead to valuation elasticity if domestic demand surprises positively [2] - The focus remains on industries where China has a global share advantage, such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and new energy, with an emphasis on companies that can enhance global pricing power [3] Group 3 - The market is expected to enter a new phase of recovery, with significant support from previous price levels and a shift in investor sentiment following recent adjustments [5] - Structural risks are emerging, which could hinder the sustained strength of advantageous themes, as indicated by high transaction concentration [5][6] - The focus on low-volatility and stable return assets is increasing, with potential interest in service consumption sectors like aviation, duty-free, and hotels [3][12] Group 4 - The central economic work conference has highlighted the importance of expanding domestic demand and addressing involution, clarifying the path out of deflation [7][19] - The emphasis on enhancing the income of middle and low-income groups and stimulating private investment indicates a shift towards endogenous growth drivers [7] - The conference also pointed out the need for a unified national market and the deepening of anti-involution measures, which are crucial for the recovery of corporate profits and subsequent improvements in resident income [8] Group 5 - The new policy deployment is expected to support the A-share market's cross-year performance, with a focus on TMT and advanced manufacturing sectors [9] - The historical performance of the A-share market during the start of the "13th Five-Year" and "14th Five-Year" plans suggests a positive outlook for 2026 [9] - The report indicates that the market may experience fluctuations due to various domestic and international events, but the overall economic policy is expected to remain supportive [9] Group 6 - The AI industry is characterized by a competition in full-stack capabilities and deep penetration into various application scenarios [10][11] - Domestic firms are focusing on building a full-stack system in the computing hardware sector, with significant advancements in AI solutions and infrastructure [11] - The demand for AI infrastructure is expected to drive growth in related sectors, including telecommunications and high-spec data centers [11][16] Group 7 - The commercial aerospace sector is entering a period of heightened activity, supported by new policies and government initiatives [17] - The establishment of a national commercial aerospace development fund aims to attract private investment and enhance the capabilities of commercial companies [17] - Recent advancements in satellite internet and frequent launches are expected to benefit the entire aerospace industry chain [17]

Core Viewpoint - The joint issuance of the "Notice" by the Ministry of Commerce, the People's Bank of China, and the National Financial Regulatory Administration aims to enhance collaboration between commerce and finance to boost consumption through 11 policy measures focusing on various consumption sectors [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Measures - The "Notice" emphasizes deepening collaboration between commerce and finance systems, encouraging local departments to enhance communication and cooperation, and promoting a combination of fiscal, credit, and social capital to implement specific measures [1]. - It highlights the importance of cross-departmental coordination to ensure effective policy implementation, with the Ministry of Finance and the People's Bank of China already implementing a personal consumption loan subsidy policy since September 1 [1]. - The "Notice" aims to create a systematic approach by encouraging regular communication between commerce and finance sectors, enhancing policy alignment, and sharing information to maximize the effectiveness of various policy combinations [1]. Group 2: Consumption Focus Areas - The "Notice" proposes targeted measures for goods consumption, service consumption, and new consumption types, including enhancing financial services for durable goods and digital products to tap into consumption upgrade potential [2]. - It suggests improving the "1+N" policy framework to increase support for service consumption, focusing on sectors like home services, hospitality, entertainment, education, tourism, and elderly care [2]. - The document encourages innovation in financial products and services to integrate more into consumption scenarios and ecosystems, exploring effective measures to support emerging consumption models such as green consumption and digital consumption [2]. Group 3: Support for Consumption - The "Notice" encourages the "government-finance-enterprise" collaboration to conduct diverse consumption promotion activities and information sharing, ensuring precise service matching to meet the needs of businesses and consumers [3]. - It promotes the customization and upgrading of digital RMB smart contract red envelope services by financial institutions to meet the requirements for efficient fund turnover and targeted policies [3]. - Local commerce departments are urged to establish a list of key projects in the consumption sector and enhance information sharing with financial institutions to facilitate precise service matching [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights that the recent increase in consumer prices indicates a synchronized improvement in supply and demand, reflecting economic resilience and potential [1][2] - In November, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.7% year-on-year, the highest since March 2024, with the core CPI (excluding food and energy) increasing by 1.2% for three consecutive months [1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, marking two consecutive months of growth, indicating a positive trend in industrial pricing [1] Group 2 - The increase in consumer prices is attributed to effective policy measures and the growth of new economic drivers, with specific sectors like arts and crafts, sports equipment, and nutritional foods seeing price increases of 20.6%, 4.3%, and 1.1% respectively [1] - The prices of household appliances and clothing rose by 4.9% and 2.0% year-on-year in November, while prices for services such as airline tickets and home services also increased, reflecting a shift in consumer spending patterns [2] - The sustained rise in core CPI suggests a steady increase in consumer confidence, supported by macroeconomic policies and efforts to optimize market competition and production capacity [2]

Core Viewpoint - The "trade-in" policy for consumer goods has significantly boosted sales, with the penetration rate of the new energy vehicle market nearing 60% as of November [1] Group 1: Consumer Market - The implementation of the "trade-in" policy has led to rapid growth in sales of related consumer goods [1] - There is a plan to further implement special actions to boost consumption and eliminate unreasonable restrictions in the consumer sector [1] Group 2: Energy Sector - There is an emphasis on accelerating the construction of a new energy system and improving the clean and efficient use of fossil energy [1] - The development of new growth points such as hydrogen energy and green fuels is highlighted [1] - Plans include the establishment of zero-carbon parks and zero-carbon factories [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the Central Economic Work Conference reflects a more confident assessment of the economic situation compared to previous years, indicating a shift in tone regarding external and internal challenges [1][2] - The fiscal policy is characterized by greater determination, with a focus on maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and debt levels, suggesting limited changes in fiscal space for the coming year [1][3] - Monetary policy emphasizes flexibility and efficiency, reiterating the importance of "dual cuts" (reducing reserve requirements and interest rates) as a response to economic conditions [2][3] Group 2 - The conference highlights the importance of expanding domestic demand, with a focus on optimizing consumption policies and releasing the potential of service consumption [2][3] - Investment is expected to stabilize after experiencing negative growth, with plans to increase central budget investments and optimize local government special bonds [3][4] - Innovation is driven by the emphasis on "Artificial Intelligence+", indicating its critical role in the competitive landscape and the need for supportive regulations [3][4] Group 3 - The conference stresses the need to combat "involution" and promote a unified market, which is expected to enhance corporate profitability and drive technological innovation [4] - Real estate is reintroduced as a focus area, with an emphasis on stabilizing the market and addressing local government debt risks, indicating potential new policies in this sector [4]