研究品种:燃料油 成文日期：20251208 报告周期:周报 研究员：何宁（从业资格号：F0238922；投资咨询从业证书号：Z0001219) 料油期货周报 核心观点: 本周燃料油合约整体呈现震荡下跌态势,整体跟随国际原油波 动节奏。主要受国际原油波动及地缘政治情绪主导,自身基本面矛 盾不突出。市场呈现"上有压力,下有支撑"的特点。上方压力来 自充裕的现货供应与趋弱的国际原油市场情绪；下方支撑则源于相 对稳定的船燃需求及潜在的供应端扰动风险。 1 期货市场 1.1 合约行情 本周燃料油主力合约 FU2601 收于 2455 元/吨，较前一交易周 结算价下跌 46元/吨, 跌幅为 1.84%。本周最高价为 2504 元/吨, 最低价为 2394 元/吨，成交量为 1884521 手，持仓量为 185625 手，减少 16267 手。 图 1：FU 燃油主力合约分时图 研究咨询：028 6130 3163 邮箱：institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉热线：4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 数据来源：国金期货博易云 1.2 品种价格 燃料油期货各合约价差进一步收窄趋于一致。可能都原 ...

经济观察网统一股份（600506）耗时三年研发出无烟、健康、燃烧持久且带莲花香味的贡灯专用油，解 决寺庙长明灯黑烟熏墙、危害僧人健康的难题。该项目不仅是技术攻关，更是社会责任的具体体现。李 嘉称："不好用的产品谈责任是空话。"这一案例展现了企业如何以科技创新回应真实社会需求，实 现"科技向善"的价值闭环。 ...

经济观察网面对研发周期长这一痛点，统一股份（600506）投入构建内部AI研发平台，整合近10年二 十多万条研发数据及配方库。借助"统一智能流体大脑"，特定指标液压油研发周期从6个月缩至1个月， 效率大增，也让公司在绿色产品平价化上抢得先机。例如，一款碳足迹降低43%的液压油，成本与寿命 可比肩高碳产品，"不让客户为减碳多花钱"。同时，公司重视面对面沟通，认为"AI+客户关系"时代， ToB业务信任和痛点理解需靠人建立，技术与关系合力让绿色与盈利并行。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate. The supply is affected by factors such as the resumption of production in some refineries and the potential impact on Venezuelan heavy - crude exports, while demand will further weaken as road construction in the north winds down due to the drop in temperature and the increase in southern projects is limited. The current market is cautious about winter - storage contracts [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Supply: Last week, the asphalt operating rate increased 0.1 percentage points to 27.9% week - on - week, 1.0 percentage point lower than the same period last year, remaining at the lowest level in recent years. In December, the expected domestic asphalt production is 2.158 million tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons (3.1%) month - on - month and 344,000 tons (13.8%) year - on - year. This week, Qilu Petrochemical will switch to asphalt production, and the asphalt operating rate will rise slightly [1]. - Demand: Last week, the operating rates of downstream asphalt industries showed mixed results. The road - asphalt operating rate remained flat at 29%, restricted by funds and weather. The national shipment volume increased 7.06% to 280,600 tons week - on - week, at a neutral level. With the drop in northern temperatures, road construction is gradually ending, future demand will further weaken, and the increase in southern projects is limited, so overall demand is average [1]. - Inventory: The inventory - to - stock ratio of asphalt refineries decreased week - on - week and is still near the lowest level in recent years [1]. - Crude Oil: Some previously malfunctioning oil fields in Iraq have resumed production, and the crack spreads of refined oil products in Europe and the United States have continued to decline, causing crude - oil prices to fluctuate weakly. The market is worried that the US seizure of a large tanker off the Venezuelan coast will affect the export of Venezuelan heavy crude and domestic asphalt production [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures contract 2602 rose 0.92% to 2,960 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 2,943 yuan/ton, and the highest was 2,997 yuan/ton. The open interest increased by 2,329 to 208,301 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong region remained at 2,930 yuan/ton. The basis of the asphalt 02 contract fell to - 30 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Refineries such as Shandong Shengxing have resumed asphalt production, and the asphalt operating rate increased 0.1 percentage points to 27.9% week - on - week, 1.0 percentage point lower than the same period last year, remaining at the lowest level in recent years [1][4]. - Investment: From January to October, the investment in national highway construction decreased 6.0% year - on - year, with the same cumulative year - on - year growth rate as from January to September. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road - transport industry from January to October decreased slightly to - 4.3% from - 2.7% from January to September. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the completed fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) from January to October dropped to - 0.1% from 1.1% from January to September [4]. - Social Financing: From January to October, the year - on - year growth rate of social - financing stock was 8.5%, 0.2 percentage points lower than that from January to September. The new social financing in October was lower than market expectations [4]. - Inventory: As of the week of December 5, the inventory - to - stock ratio of asphalt refineries decreased 1.3 percentage points to 13.2% compared with the week of November 28 and is near the lowest level in recent years [4].

光大期货表示，炼厂冬储政策逐渐落地，百川盈孚预计，综合炼厂产能利用率、库存率以及成本利润情 况，今年冬储价格大概率会下跌至近五年较低水平，预测冬储沥青价格在2800-2900元/吨。近期沥青价 格在3000元/吨左右反复震荡，暂时有一定支撑，但也不排除油价重心继续下移之下拖累沥青价格下 跌，短期对盘面仍以低位震荡的观点对待，关注冬储释放情况。 建信期货分析称，扬子石化短暂复产后暂未有继续生产沥青的计划，镇海炼化以、东明石化和胜星石化 均有计划复产沥青，预计沥青装置开工率将出现小幅反弹。需求端冷空气再度影响我国大部分地区，东 北西北道路需求已经停滞，但山东等地区仍有赶工需求，预计需求稳定。油价暂无支撑，沥青供需两 弱，短期市场偏谨慎，观望为主。 12月11日，国内期市能化板块多数飘绿。其中，沥青期货主力合约开盘报2954.00元/吨，今日盘中高位 震荡运行；截至午间收盘，沥青主力最高触及2997.00元，下方探低2943.00元，涨幅达1.81%。 目前来看，沥青行情呈现震荡上行走势，盘面表现偏强。对于沥青后市行情将如何运行，相关机构观点 汇总如下： 新湖期货指出，山东市场部分品牌推涨情绪明显，市场挺价氛围初步 ...

12月11日，燃料油期货呈现震荡下行走势，截至发稿主力合约小幅下跌1.45%，报2385.00元/吨。 【消息面汇总】 市场消息来源称，印度斯坦石油公司通过招标方式销售3万吨于12月下旬在维萨加港装船的高硫燃料油，周二截标。 阿联酋富查伊拉石油工业区最新数据显示，截至2025年12月8日当周，阿联酋富查伊拉港的成品油总库存为2351.2万桶，较前一周增加47.6万桶。 其中，轻质馏分油库存减少0.9万桶至731.6万桶，中质馏分油库存增加5.5万桶至326.8万桶，重质残渣燃料油库存增加43万桶至1292.8万桶。 Dangote炼厂RFCC装置已经从12月8日开始进入检修(计划内检修，预计持续到1月26日)，检修期间尼日利亚低硫燃料油出口可能会再度回升。参 考船期数据，12月截止目前为止尼日利亚低硫油发货量为零。 机构观点 瑞达期货（002961）：地缘升温及美联储如期降息25基点引发了金融市场大幅波动，美元大跌同时油价终于迎来反弹窗口，从日内低点反弹超2% 最终收涨，对化工品提供难得的阶段性支撑。供应方面，主营炼厂因检修开工率承压，地炼则因元旦备货高峰提前提负，供应格局继续呈现区域 分化。库存方面，山东地 ...

Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Insights - In November, the national Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a slight month-on-month decrease of 0.1% but a year-on-year increase of 0.7%, marking the highest growth since March 2024, with an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The increase in CPI year-on-year was primarily driven by a turnaround in food prices, which shifted from a decrease of 2.9% in the previous month to an increase of 0.2% [2] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 1.2% year-on-year, maintaining a growth rate above 1% for three consecutive months, indicating effective domestic demand expansion policies [2] Group 2: Producer Price Index (PPI) Insights - The Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.1% month-on-month in November, marking the second consecutive month of growth [3] - The rise in PPI was attributed to seasonal increases in demand across certain domestic industries, particularly in coal and gas, with coal mining prices rising by 4.1% and gas production prices by 0.7% [3] - Year-on-year, the PPI decreased by 2.2%, with the decline slightly widening by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month, largely due to high comparison bases from the previous year [3] Group 3: Sector-Specific Price Changes - The rapid development of emerging industries has led to price increases in related sectors, with prices for external storage devices and components rising by 13.9% year-on-year [4] - Consumer demand has been effectively released, contributing to price recoveries in relevant industries, such as a 1.1% increase in the price of nutritional food manufacturing [4] - The prices of household appliances, including washing machines and air conditioners, saw a narrowing of year-on-year declines, indicating a positive trend in consumer goods pricing [4]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年12月10日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年12月份沥青总计划排产量为215.8万吨，环比降幅3.24%。本周国内 石油沥青样本产能利用率为30.0815%，环比增加0.599个百分点，全国样本企业出货28.06万吨，环 比增加7.06%,样本企业产量为50.2万吨，环比增加2.03%,样本企业装置检修量预估为82.6万吨，环 比减少4.61%,本周炼厂有所增产，提升供应压力。下周或将增加供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为27.9%，环比增加0.00个百分点，低于历史平均水平；建筑沥青开工 率为6.6%，环比持平，低于历史平均水平；改性沥青开工率为9.2238% ...

s 加安期货 沥青早报 | | 指示 | 11/7 | 12/3 | 12/5 | 12/8 | 12/9 | 日度变化 | 팀 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 基差&月差 | 山东基差(+80)(弘润) | 12 | 78 | 42 | 51 | -2863 | -2914 | - | | | 华东基差(镇江库) | 142 | 88 | 92 | 81 | -2943 | -3024 | 1. | | | 华南县差(佛山库) | 182 | 18 | -18 | ﮯ | -2943 | -2944 | - | | | 12-01 | 4 | -25 | -26 | -22 | -21 | | | | | 12-03 | -38 | -52 | -51 | -62 | -56 | 6 | | | | 01-02 | -16 | -9 | -11 | -18 | -15 | 3 | | | 4:11:1 | BU主力合约(01) | 3048 | 2952 | 2948 | 2959 | 2943 | -16 | | | ...

高硫稳定弱势，低硫供应预期波动 研究员：吴晓蓉 期货从业证号：F03108405 投资咨询证号：Z0021537 目录 | 第一章 | 综合分析与交易策略 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 核心逻辑分析 | 4 | | 第三章 | 周度数据追踪 | 9 | GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 低硫关注各地炼厂装置变化对供应的扰动影响。Dangote炼厂汽油装置检修计划再次变动，检修时间延后同时检修时长缩短，近端低 硫供应增量少于预期。Al-Zour炼厂装置延迟回归继续给低硫市场以一定支撑。南苏丹消息，已恢复油田正常运营及原油正常出口， 低硫供应缺口扰动消退。低硫重质原料Dar Blend在8月苏丹与阿联酋矛盾后几乎全部流往泛新加坡地区。泛新加坡地区低硫供应减少 不如预期，马来西亚RFCC装置回 ...