Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the "dual silicon" market, particularly in industrial silicon and polysilicon futures prices, is driven by expectations of "anti-involution" policies, leading to price adjustments being transmitted down the supply chain [1][3]. Group 1: Price Trends - Polysilicon prices have significantly rebounded, with the average transaction price for N-type polysilicon reaching 41,700 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 12.4% [3]. - The average price for N-type granular silicon rose to 41,000 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 15.2% [3]. - The national comprehensive price for industrial silicon has increased to 8,851 yuan/ton, up 108 yuan/ton from previous levels [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The price increase by silicon material companies is primarily driven by the need for price recovery, as polysilicon prices have long been below the comprehensive cost line, leading to continuous losses [3]. - The current operating rate of the polysilicon industry is approximately 40%, with significant depreciation costs raising the total production cost by over 10,000 yuan/ton [3]. Group 3: Price Transmission Effects - The price hikes in silicon materials are being transmitted to downstream sectors, with the average transaction price for N-type G10L monocrystalline silicon wafers reaching 1.05 yuan/piece, a week-on-week increase of 22.09% [4]. - The overall operating rate in the silicon wafer industry has slightly decreased, with two leading companies' operating rates dropping to 50% and 40% respectively [4]. - A preliminary price consensus has been reached among silicon wafer companies, with expected new quotes for N-type G10L at 1.45 yuan/piece, N-type G12R at 1.65 yuan/piece, and N-type G12 at 1.93 yuan/piece [4]. Group 4: Cost Influences - The implementation of coal supply control policies has provided additional support for the rise in silicon material prices, as electricity costs account for about 30% of industrial silicon production costs and up to 40% for polysilicon [4]. - The limited coal supply is expected to increase electricity prices, further burdening production costs for both industrial and polysilicon [4]. - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has implemented trading limits on industrial silicon and polysilicon futures to enhance market risk management and stabilize market expectations [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market shows a situation where the upward momentum is insufficient. Although there are signs of a rebound in futures and spot prices, the selling pressure on the futures surface increases as the price rises, and the follow - up may enter a consolidation stage [1]. - The polysilicon market has also seen a continuous upward trend in the disk since the end of June, but as the previous long - positions gradually take profits and leave the market, the disk may adjust in the short term [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Changes - **Industrial Silicon Spot Prices**: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) increased by 1.65% to 9,250 yuan/ton, and the 421 (East China) increased by 1.04% to 9,750 yuan/ton. Different regions and grades of industrial silicon prices all showed varying degrees of increase [1]. - **Industrial Silicon Futures Prices**: The closing price of the futures main contract increased by 6.50% to 9,260 yuan/ton [1]. - **Polysilicon Spot Prices**: The prices of N - type dense materials, N - type re - feeding materials, N - type mixed materials, and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged [1]. - **Polysilicon Futures Prices**: The closing price of the futures main contract increased by 4.13% to 45,660 yuan/ton [1]. - **Silicon Wafer Prices**: The prices of N - type 210mm, N - type 210R, and N - type 183mm silicon wafers increased, while the prices of P - type 210mm and P - type 182mm remained unchanged [1]. - **Battery Cell Prices**: The price of single - crystal PERC battery cells M10 - 182mm increased by 0.75% [1]. - **Component Prices**: The prices of single - crystal PERC components remained mostly unchanged [1]. - **Organic Silicon Prices**: The prices of DMC, 107 glue, and silicone oil remained unchanged [1]. Industry News - SynVista plans to build its first energy storage manufacturing plant in Southeast Asia in Malaysia, with an expected annual production capacity of 5GWh by the end of 2025 [1]. - In June 2025, the export volume of industrial silicon was 68,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 23% and a year - on - year increase of 12%. From January to June 2025, the cumulative export volume was 340,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7%. The import volume was very small, with a cumulative import volume of 5,200 tons from January to June, a year - on - year decrease of 62% [1]. Fundamental Analysis - **Industrial Silicon Supply and Demand**: On the supply side, northern large - scale factories have production reduction plans and no restart information, while the southwest region is about to enter the wet season, with power costs decreasing and enterprise start - up rates gradually rising, but the restart speed is slow, and the supply may decrease after offsetting. On the demand side, polysilicon enterprises maintain production reduction, some silicon material factories plan to restart production in July, which will bring some demand increments; the organic silicon industry has a strong willingness to reduce production and support prices, but the demand is weak, and the actual transaction price has declined, and the overall start - up rate has decreased, further weakening the demand for industrial silicon; silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the downstream's willingness to stock up at low levels is insufficient [1]. - **Polysilicon Supply and Demand**: On the supply side, silicon material enterprises maintain production reduction, and some may have new production capacity put into operation, and the output is expected to increase slightly, with the output in July approaching 110,000 tons. On the demand side, the photovoltaic market is weak, the inventory of silicon wafers and silicon materials has increased, and although the downstream silicon wafer prices have followed the increase due to the expected increase in polysilicon prices, the terminal market is still weak due to the over - consumption of demand in the first half of the year [1].

Report Title - Industrial Silicon: Supply and Demand De-stocking, Monitor the Restart Rhythm of Upstream Factories; Polysilicon: Policy-Driven Market, Hold Positions Cautiously [1][2] Report Date - July 20, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - For industrial silicon, pay attention to the restart rhythm of upstream factories. The market sentiment remains high, and the supply-demand de-stocking logic supports the price. The disk provides a suitable hedging space for upstream factories. The restart progress of upstream factories is crucial [6]. - For polysilicon, the expectation of policy implementation is strong. It is safer to go long at appropriate times. The market is mainly driven by policy expectations, and the relationship with supply and demand is relatively weak [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Price Trends This Week - Industrial silicon: The futures disk fluctuated strongly, and the spot price also increased. The futures closed at 8,695 yuan/ton on Friday. The SMM statistics show that the price of Xinjiang 99 silicon was 8,700 yuan/ton (up 300 yuan week-on-week), and the price of Inner Mongolia 99 silicon was 9,050 yuan/ton (up 500 yuan week-on-week) [2]. - Polysilicon: The futures disk rose significantly, and the spot quotation increased. The futures closed at 43,850 yuan/ton on Friday. Only a small number of downstream buyers accepted high-price transactions, and further observation is needed [2]. 2. Supply and Demand Fundamentals Industrial Silicon - Supply side: The weekly industry inventory decreased again. The production in Yunnan and Sichuan increased, while the production in Xinjiang remained stable. The southwest region carried out hedging operations after the price increase, and some enterprises have the expectation of restarting production. The restart rhythm of northwest silicon factories is crucial. The futures warehouse receipts increased by 0.1 million tons this week, and the social inventory decreased by 0.4 million tons, and the factory inventory decreased by 0.1 million tons [3]. - Demand side: Short-term demand increased. The production of polysilicon may continue to increase, and the demand for industrial silicon has improved. The production of organosilicon increased this week, and the demand for industrial silicon was maintained. There is also an expectation of restarting production in monomer factories. However, the terminal consumption of organosilicon has not improved significantly. June - July is the off-season for aluminum alloy consumption, and the actual trading volume has not increased significantly. Exporters mainly focus on rigid demand and do not hoard goods [3]. Polysilicon - Supply side: The short-term weekly production increased marginally. Some factories in Sichuan, Yunnan, Xinjiang, and Qinghai are restarting production, which will bring subsequent supply increments. The inventory of silicon material manufacturers decreased this week, and the upstream price increase led to speculative replenishment demand from downstream [4]. - Demand side: The production of silicon wafers continued to decrease due to the decline in terminal demand and the increase in costs. The price increase of silicon materials has been transmitted to silicon wafers and battery cells, but there is no information on the price increase and transaction of components, indicating that the transmission of upstream price increases is not smooth [4][5]. 3. Market Outlook - Industrial silicon: The disk has resistance to decline before the end of this round of market sentiment. It is recommended to pay attention to the restart progress of upstream factories. It is recommended to go short at high levels, and the expected disk range next week is 8,500 - 9,000 yuan/ton [6][7]. - Polysilicon: The policy implementation expectation is strong. It is safer to go long at appropriate times. The expected disk range next week is 43,000 - 47,000 yuan/ton [7]. 4. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Recommend going short at high levels for industrial silicon; for polysilicon, it is recommended to go long at appropriate times [6][7]. - Inter - period: Recommend stopping profit for the PS2509/PS2511 inter - period reverse spread strategy [8]. - Hedging: Recommend selling hedging strategies for upstream industrial silicon factories and polysilicon factories [8].

Group 1 - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company for the first half of 2025 to be between -400 million and -300 million yuan, indicating a loss compared to the same period last year [1][2] - The forecasted net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is expected to be between -550 million and -450 million yuan [1][2] - The previous year's profit attributable to shareholders was 143.7 million yuan, with earnings per share of 0.83 yuan [2] Group 2 - The main reasons for the anticipated loss include low operating rates in the polysilicon sector, a significant decline in industrial silicon and polysilicon market prices, and a decrease in end-user demand due to the tapering of the photovoltaic installation rush [2] - The company plans to focus on its core business, optimize resource allocation, and enhance production efficiency to maintain stable operational cash flow and ensure sustainable development [2]

Core Viewpoint - Hosheng Silicon Industry (603260.SH) expects a net profit loss of 300 million to 400 million yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a shift from profit to loss year-on-year due to weak downstream demand in industrial silicon and low operating rates in the photovoltaic industry [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company anticipates a significant decline in net profit, projecting a loss of 300 million to 400 million yuan for the first half of 2025 [1] - This represents a year-on-year transition from profitability to a loss, indicating a challenging financial outlook [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - The primary reasons for the performance decline include weak downstream demand for industrial silicon and low operating rates in the photovoltaic sector [1] - Continuous price declines in industrial silicon and polysilicon have contributed to reduced sales prices for the company [1] Group 3: Operational Impact - The company is facing operational challenges, including losses from the photovoltaic segment's shutdown and inventory impairment provisions [1] - These factors have collectively led to a phase of loss for the company [1]

Group 1: Natural Rubber Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View Short - term rubber prices rebound due to macro - sentiment, but the weak fundamental expectation remains unchanged. Adopt a short - selling approach on rallies, and consider short positions in the 14,000 - 14,500 range. Pay attention to raw material supply in each production area and US tariff changes [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The price of Yunnan state - owned standard rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai increased by 100 yuan/ton to 14,350 yuan/ton, with a 0.70% increase. The basis of whole - milk rubber (switched to the 2509 contract) rose by 145 to - 10, a 93.55% increase. Other raw material prices showed various changes [2]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 10 to - 860, a 1.15% increase; the 1 - 5 spread increased by 15 to - 40, a 27.27% increase; the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 25 to 900, a - 2.70% decrease [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, Thailand's rubber production increased by 166,500 tons to 272,200 tons, a 157.52% increase. The operating rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires increased. The domestic tire production decreased slightly, while the tire export volume increased. The import volume of natural rubber decreased [2]. - **Inventory Changes**: The bonded - area inventory increased by 14,802 tons to 632,090 tons, a 2.40% increase. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE increased by 7,258 tons to 36,994 tons, a 24.41% increase [2]. Group 2: Glass and Soda Ash Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View For soda ash, although the futures price rebounded due to macro - sentiment and spot trading improved, the supply - demand situation remains in an obvious surplus, and inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to wait and look for short - selling opportunities after the sentiment fades. For glass, although the futures price is strong due to macro - sentiment, the demand is under pressure in the off - season, and the industry needs capacity reduction. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of glass in North China, East China, Central China, and South China showed small changes. The prices of glass futures contracts 2505 and 2509 increased slightly [4]. - **Soda - ash - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of soda ash in different regions remained stable. The prices of soda ash futures contracts 2505 and 2509 decreased slightly [4]. - **Supply Data**: The operating rate of soda ash remained unchanged, and the weekly production was stable. The daily melting volume of float glass increased slightly, while the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass remained unchanged [4]. - **Inventory Data**: The glass market inventory decreased by 198,300 square meters to 67.102 million square meters, a - 2.87% decrease. The soda - ash factory inventory and delivery - warehouse inventory increased [4]. - **Real - estate Data**: The year - on - year changes in new construction area, construction area, completion area, and sales area showed different trends [4]. Group 3: Log Futures Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View In the fundamental aspect, the demand for logs enters the off - season from June to August. The arrival volume remains low, and the supply is expected to decrease seasonally. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. Be vigilant against emotional price increases [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The prices of log futures contracts 2507, 2509, and 2511 decreased slightly. The prices of some spot logs decreased, while the outer - market quotation increased [5]. - **Supply**: The port shipment volume increased by 228,000 cubic meters to 1.955 million cubic meters, a 13.20% increase. The number of ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 5 to 58, a - 7.94% decrease [5]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of coniferous logs in China decreased by 130,000 cubic meters to 3.23 million cubic meters, a - 3.87% decrease [5]. - **Demand**: The average daily outbound volume increased by 12,000 cubic meters to 669,000 cubic meters [5]. Group 4: Industrial Silicon Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View The price of industrial silicon increased due to the expectation of anti - involution policies, with less impact from supply - demand fundamentals. The supply is expected to increase further. Technically, it shows a strong - side fluctuation. In the short - term, it is expected to remain strong, but short - selling can be considered if large - scale enterprises resume production or the price of polysilicon drops. Risk management is recommended [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The prices of different grades of industrial silicon in East China and Xinjiang increased. The basis of different grades decreased [6]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts showed various changes [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the national industrial silicon production increased by 20,000 tons to 327,700 tons, a 6.50% increase. The production of related downstream products also changed [6]. - **Inventory Changes**: The factory - warehouse inventory in Xinjiang decreased by 26,200 tons to 123,900 tons, a - 17.46% decrease. The social inventory decreased slightly [6]. Group 5: Polysilicon Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View The price of polysilicon increased rapidly under the expectation of policies, but the market is cautious about the new price. There is a large discount in the futures market, and there is room for price repair. The market may fluctuate greatly next week. Attention should be paid to the price of P - type cauliflower - like polysilicon and risk management [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The average prices of different types of polysilicon remained stable, while the basis of some types increased slightly [7]. - **Futures Prices and Inter - month Spreads**: The prices of polysilicon futures contracts and the spreads between different contracts showed various changes [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: The weekly production of silicon wafers and polysilicon decreased. The monthly production of polysilicon increased, while the import and export volumes changed [7]. - **Inventory Changes**: The polysilicon inventory increased by 4,000 tons to 276,000 tons, a 1.47% increase. The silicon - wafer inventory decreased [7].

Group 1: Natural Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core View - With the improvement of rainfall in overseas production areas, the raw material prices in Thailand are gradually weakening, and the cost - side support is weakening. The capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises is declining, and the inventory in Qingdao continues to accumulate. It is recommended to hold short positions above 14,000 and pay attention to the raw material supply in each production area and the change of US tariffs [1]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: The prices of Yunnan state - owned standard rubber, Thai standard mixed rubber, etc. remained unchanged on July 9 compared with July 8. The full - milk basis and non - standard price difference decreased significantly, and the prices of cup rubber and glue in the international market slightly declined [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 1 - 5 spread increased by 8.33%, the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 0.53%, and the 9 - 1 spread remained unchanged [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, the production of Thailand, Indonesia, India, and China increased. The production of Thailand increased by 157.52%. The production of domestic tires decreased slightly, and the export volume increased by 7.72%. The import volume of natural rubber decreased by 13.35%. The production cost of dry glue in Thailand decreased slightly, and the production profit of STR20 increased by 13.40% [1]. - **Inventory Change**: The bonded area inventory and the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased, while the inbound and outbound rates of dry glue in Qingdao decreased [1]. Group 2: Polysilicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core View - The polysilicon futures opened high and moved high, and the spot price continued to rise. The downstream demand is weak, and the polysilicon still faces the pressure of over - supply and inventory accumulation. Although the price is rising under the policy expectation, attention should be paid to the acceptance of downstream enterprises for the rising raw material prices and the subsequent terminal demand and consumption situation [3]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: The average price of N - type re -投料 and N - type granular silicon increased, with increases of 2.56% and 4.11% respectively. The N - type material basis increased by 18.70%, and the cauliflower material basis decreased by 28.41% [3]. - **Futures Price and Monthly Spread**: The PS2506 contract increased by 2.31%. The spreads between some contracts changed significantly, such as the PS2506 - PS2507 spread decreased by 298.85% [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: The weekly output of silicon wafers decreased by 11.46%, and the monthly output of polysilicon increased by 5.10%. The import volume of polysilicon decreased by 67.16%, and the export volume decreased by 37.06% [3]. - **Inventory Change**: The polysilicon inventory increased by 0.74%, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased by 4.43% [3]. Group 3: Industrial Silicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core View - The spot price of industrial silicon is stable, and the futures price fluctuates. The supply is expected to remain high in July, and the demand from polysilicon and organic silicon is mixed. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate strongly under the support of production reduction, but the long - term over - supply pressure may increase. Attention should be paid to the impact of polysilicon production changes on demand and the impact of policies [4]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: The price of Xinjiang 99 silicon increased by 1.24%, and the basis of different types of industrial silicon increased to varying degrees [4]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spreads between some contracts changed, such as the 2507 - 2508 spread decreased by 88.00% [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the national industrial silicon production increased by 6.50%, and the production in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan increased, while the production in Inner Mongolia decreased. The production of organic silicon DMC and polysilicon increased [4]. - **Inventory Change**: The inventory in Xinjiang factories decreased by 13.19%, and the social inventory increased by 1.85% [4]. Group 4: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core View - **Soda Ash**: Although the soda ash market rebounded under the influence of short - term news, the overall supply is still in an over - supply pattern. After the end of maintenance, inventory accumulation may accelerate. It is recommended to wait and look for opportunities to short on the rebound [6]. - **Glass**: The glass market rebounded under the influence of policy expectations, but the current demand is in the off - season, and the rigid demand is under pressure. It is necessary to wait for more cold - repair measures to achieve a real reversal of the market, and it is recommended to wait and see [6]. Summary by Directory - **Glass - Related Price and Spread**: The prices of glass in different regions remained unchanged. The glass 2505 and 2509 contracts increased slightly, and the 05 - 09 spread decreased [6]. - **Soda Ash - Related Price and Spread**: The prices of soda ash in North China and Central China remained unchanged, and the price in East China decreased by 1.60%. The soda ash 2505 and 2509 contracts increased by 0.81%, and the 05 - 09 spread decreased [6]. - **Supply**: The soda ash production rate and weekly output decreased slightly, the float glass daily melting volume increased by 0.64%, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume decreased by 4.02% [6]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory inventory decreased slightly, the soda ash factory inventory increased by 2.41%, and the soda ash delivery warehouse inventory decreased by 17.99% [6]. - **Real Estate Data**: The new - construction area, completion area, and sales area increased year - on - year, while the construction area decreased [6]. Group 5: Log Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core View - The log futures fluctuated, and the prices of main benchmark delivery products decreased. The inventory decreased significantly last week, and the demand increased slightly. From the fundamental perspective, the log market will enter a period of weak supply and demand in the high - temperature and rainy season from June to August, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly [8]. Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Price**: The prices of log futures contracts 2509 and 2511 decreased slightly. The prices of main benchmark delivery products in Shandong and Jiangsu decreased by 10 yuan per cubic meter [8]. - **Cost**: The import theoretical cost increased by 4% due to the change of RMB - US dollar exchange rate [8]. - **Supply**: The port shipping volume increased by 13.20%, and the number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 7.94% [8]. - **Inventory**: The national log inventory decreased by 3.87% week - on - week, and the inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu decreased [8]. - **Demand**: The national log daily average outbound volume increased by 2%, and the demand in Shandong increased by 10% [8].

| 工业硅&多晶硅日评20250708："反内卷"情绪推动，硅系价格走势坚挺 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 近期趋势 2025/7/8 指标 | 单位 | 今值 | 变动 | | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | 元/吨 | 8,500.00 | 0.00% | | 工业硅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 8,045.00 | 0.81% | | 基差（华东553#-期货主力） | 元/吨 | 455.00 | -65.00 | | N型多晶硅料 | 元/千克 | 34.50 | 0.00% | | 多晶硅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 36,515.00 | 2.83% | | 基差 | 元/吨 | -2,015.00 | -1,005.00 | | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | 元/吨 | 8,500.00 | 0.00% | | 不通氧553#（黄埔港）平均价格 | 元/吨 | 8,500.00 | 0.00% | | 不通氧553#（天津港）平均价格 | 元/吨 | 8,400.00 | 0.00% | | 不通氧553#（昆 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Natural Rubber - Under the expectation of increasing supply and weakening demand, rubber prices are expected to remain weak. Hold short positions above 14,000 yuan/ton and monitor raw material conditions in various producing areas and macro - event disturbances [1]. Industrial Silicon - In the short - term, the industrial silicon futures price rises supported by demand recovery and production cuts. However, in the medium - to - long - term, the fundamentals have not improved. Pay attention to inventory accumulation and hedging arbitrage pressure [4]. Polysilicon - The current contradiction in the polysilicon market lies in the mismatch between weak demand and high supply, leading to a strong expectation of price decline. If production cuts are implemented, prices may stabilize and rebound. Monitor production changes [5]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Soda Ash**: The short - term impact of a plant disruption is expected to be limited. In the long - run, the supply is in excess, and there will be a process of further profit reduction. Maintain a short - selling strategy on rebounds [6]. - **Glass**: In the summer rainy season, the glass industry faces over - supply pressure. Wait for more cold - repair to occur for a real market reversal. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate between 950 - 1050 yuan/ton [6]. Logs - The log market is entering a pattern of weak supply and demand. The 07 contract is expected to fluctuate and is recommended to be observed [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Natural Rubber Spot Prices and Basis - The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex (SCRWF) in Shanghai increased by 100 yuan/ton to 13,850 yuan/ton, with a 0.73% increase [1]. - The whole - milk basis (switched to the 2509 contract) decreased by 170 yuan/ton to - 190 yuan/ton, a - 850.00% change [1]. Month - to - Month Spreads - The 9 - 1 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 845 yuan/ton, a 0.59% increase [1]. - The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 25 yuan/ton to - 30 yuan/ton, a - 20.00% change [1]. Fundamental Data - In April, Thailand's production decreased by 43.5 thousand tons to 105.7 thousand tons, a - 29.16% change [1]. - In April, Indonesia's production decreased by 15.2 thousand tons to 194.1 thousand tons, a - 7.26% change [1]. Inventory Changes - The bonded - area inventory increased by 1410 tons to 606,975 tons, a 0.23% increase [1]. - The natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory at the SHFE decreased by 2620 tons to 32,256 tons, a - 7.51% change [1]. Industrial Silicon Spot Prices and Basis - The price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon increased by 50 yuan/ton to 8200 yuan/ton, a 0.61% increase [4]. - The basis of SI5530 decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 645 yuan/ton, a - 3.01% change [4]. Month - to - Month Spreads - The 2509 - 2510 spread decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 15 yuan/ton, a - 57.14% change [4]. Fundamental Data - In May, the national industrial silicon production increased by 0.69 million tons to 30.77 million tons, a 2.29% increase [4]. - In May, Xinjiang's industrial silicon production decreased by 0.44 million tons to 16.31 million tons, a - 2.60% change [4]. Inventory Changes - Xinjiang's factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 0.29 million tons to 17.29 million tons, a - 1.65% change [4]. - The social inventory decreased by 1.7 million tons to 54.2 million tons, a - 3.04% change [4]. Polysilicon Spot Prices and Basis - The average price of N - type re -投料 remained unchanged at 34,500 yuan/ton [5]. - The N - type material basis (average price) decreased by 1090 yuan/ton to 2785 yuan/ton, a - 28.13% change [5]. Futures Prices and Month - to - Month Spreads - The PS2506 contract increased by 1090 yuan/ton to 31,715 yuan/ton, a 3.56% increase [5]. - The PS2506 - PS2507 spread decreased by 225 yuan/ton to 630 yuan/ton, a - 26.32% change [5]. Fundamental Data - The weekly polysilicon production decreased by 0.09 million tons to 2.36 million tons, a - 3.67% change [5]. - In May, the polysilicon import volume decreased by 0.21 million tons to 0.08 million tons, a - 72.71% change [5]. Inventory Changes - The polysilicon inventory increased by 0.8 million tons to 27 million tons, a 3.05% increase [5]. - The silicon wafer inventory increased by 1.37 GW to 20.11 GW, a 7.31% increase [5]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - Related Prices and Spreads - The North China glass quote remained unchanged at 1140 yuan/ton [6]. - The glass 2505 contract increased by 6 yuan/ton to 1113 yuan/ton, a 0.54% increase [6]. Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads - The North China soda ash quote remained unchanged at 1350 yuan/ton [6]. - The soda ash 2509 contract increased by 14 yuan/ton to 1180 yuan/ton, a 1.17% increase [6]. Supply - The soda ash production rate increased by 6.33 percentage points to 84.90% [6]. - The soda ash weekly production increased by 5.51 million tons to 74.01 million tons, an 8.04% increase [6]. Inventory - The glass factory - warehouse inventory increased by 192,300 heavy - boxes to 6,968,500 heavy - boxes, a 2.84% increase [6]. - The soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased by 6.2 million tons to 168.63 million tons, a 3.82% increase [6]. Logs Futures and Spot Prices - The log 2507 contract increased by 7 yuan/cubic meter to 818 yuan/cubic meter, a 0.86% increase [8]. - The log 2509 contract decreased by 3.5 yuan/cubic meter to 793.5 yuan/cubic meter, a - 0.44% change [8]. Cost: Import Cost Calculation - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate decreased by 0.008 to 7.160, a 0% change [8]. - The import theoretical cost decreased by 0.8 yuan/cubic meter to 775.13 yuan/cubic meter, a 0% change [8]. Supply - The port shipping volume increased by 22.8 million cubic meters to 195.5 million cubic meters, a 13.20% increase [8]. Inventory - The national log inventory decreased by 10 million cubic meters to 335 million cubic meters, a - 2.90% change [8]. Demand - The average daily log outbound volume increased by 0.38 million cubic meters to 6.36 million cubic meters [8].

x产业期现目报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年6月27日 现货价格及基差 品种 6月26日 6月25日 涨跌 涨跌幅 单位 云南国营全乳胶(SCRWF):上海 13850 13750 100 0.73% 全乳基差(切换至2509合约) -190 -20 -170 -850.00% 元/吨 泰标混合胶报价 13700 13600 100 0.74% 非标价差 -340 -170 -170 -100.00% 杯胶:国际市场:FOB中间价 46.95 47.20 -0.25 -0.53% 泰铢/公斤 胶水：国际市场：FOB中间价 57.50 -0.25 57.25 -0.43% 天然橡胶:胶块:西双版纳州 12600 12600 0 0.00% 13200 0 天然橡胶：胶水：西双版纳州 13200 0.00% 元/吨 原料：市场主流价：海南 12400 12400 0 0.00% 外胶原料：市场主流价：海南 9000 9000 0.00 0.00% 合约 6月26日 6月25日 涨跌 涨跌幅 单位 9-1价差 -845 -850 5 0.59% 1-5价差 -25 -5 -20.00 ...