Market Insights | Markets | Equities 市场洞察 | 市场 | 股票 markets / macro 市场 / 宏观 FICC and Equities | 28 June 2025 | 11:47AM UTC 固定收益、货币与大宗商品及股票 | 2025 年 6 月 28 日 | 协调世界时上午 11:47 this week was a legitimate banger -- S&P took out the highs and NDX rallied wire-to-wire. 本周堪称真正的爆发周 -- 标普突破高点,纳指全程上涨。 said more formally, it was one of the most consequential weeks of the year. 更正式地说,这是今年最具影响力的一周之一。 from a geopolitical perspective, both Operation Midnight Hammer and the NATO pledge of 5% should be remembered as watershe ...

Market Overview - Global risk assets rebounded this week amid easing geopolitical tensions and rising expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, with the dollar under pressure and non-dollar currencies strengthening [1] - The S&P 500 index rose 3.44% this week, closing at 6173.07 points, surpassing its previous historical closing high from February 19 [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 3.82% to 43819.27 points, while the Nasdaq index gained 4.25% to 20273.46 points, also breaking its historical closing high from December 16, 2024 [1] U.S. Stock Performance - The "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks led the gains in the U.S. market, with Nvidia rising 9.66% to a market capitalization of $3.85 trillion [1] - Other notable tech stocks included META (+7.52%), Google A (+7.14%), Amazon (+6.49%), Microsoft (+3.88%), Tesla (+0.51%), and Apple (+0.04%) [1] European Market Performance - European stock markets mostly rose, with the STOXX 600 index up 1.32%, Germany's DAX 30 up 2.92%, France's CAC 40 up 1.34%, and the UK's FTSE 100 up 0.28% [1] Asia-Pacific Market Performance - The South Korean stock market rose 1.13% for the week, with a year-to-date increase of 27.36% [2] - The Nikkei 225 index surged 4.55%, surpassing 40,000 points for the first time since January 27 [2] - The Indian SENSEX 30 index increased by 2% over the week [2] Currency Market - The U.S. dollar index fell 1.52% to 97.26, marking five consecutive days of decline [2] - Non-dollar currencies rebounded, with the euro rising 1.7% against the dollar, the yen up approximately 1%, and the Swiss franc increasing by 2.3% [2] Commodity Market - Gold prices fell, with spot gold dropping below $3,330 per ounce, a two-week low, down 2.8% for the week [2] - WTI crude oil prices fell significantly, with a weekly decline of 11.88%, dropping below $66 per barrel [2] - Brent crude oil also saw a decline, with a weekly drop of 12.11%, closing at $66.34 per barrel [2] Employment Data Insights - The U.S. non-farm payrolls for May exceeded expectations, with an increase of 139,000 jobs, stabilizing the unemployment rate at 4.2% [4] - Analysts expect June's non-farm payrolls to slow to 120,000, with the unemployment rate projected to rise to 4.3% [4][5] - The job market indicators suggest potential downward trends, with leading indicators pointing towards a possible increase in unemployment rates in the coming years [5] U.S. Stock Market Outlook - The U.S. stock market has rebounded after a period of extreme risk aversion, with July historically being a strong month for stock performance [6] - The S&P 500's earnings per share growth is expected to follow the trend of overall corporate profits, with current EPS growth expectations at 7.5% [6] - However, the market's valuation remains high, with the current price-to-earnings ratio at levels seen in early March, indicating limited potential for further valuation increases [7]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market opened with mixed performance among major industry ETFs, with consumer discretionary ETFs rising over 0.8% while gold stock ETFs fell more than 2% [1]. Group 1: Consumer Discretionary and Other ETFs - Consumer discretionary ETF (XLY) increased by 1.72 to 216.72, representing a rise of 0.80% with a trading volume of 247,700 shares [2]. - Semiconductor ETF (SMH) rose by 2.21 to 279.40, also reflecting a 0.80% increase with a trading volume of 487,700 shares [2]. - Regional bank ETF (KRE) saw an increase of 0.28 to 59.76, which is a 0.46% rise with a trading volume of 786,000 shares [2]. - Internet index ETF (FDN) increased by 0.85 to 265.22, marking a 0.32% rise with a trading volume of 12,745 shares [2]. - Technology sector ETF (XLK) rose by 0.75 to 251.82, reflecting a 0.30% increase with a trading volume of 441,700 shares [2]. - Global technology ETF (IXN) increased by 0.27 to 91.82, representing a 0.29% rise with a trading volume of 9,163 shares [2]. - Healthcare ETF (XLV) rose by 0.27 to 134.49, marking a 0.20% increase with a trading volume of 792,600 shares [2]. - Consumer staples ETF (XLP) increased by 0.14 to 80.31, reflecting a 0.18% rise with a trading volume of 922,300 shares [2]. - Utilities ETF (XLU) rose by 0.13 to 81.30, representing a 0.16% increase with a trading volume of 1,079,700 shares [2]. - Financials ETF (XLF) saw a slight increase of 0.03 to 51.81, which is a 0.05% rise with a trading volume of 1,939,700 shares [2]. Group 2: Gold Stocks - Gold stock ETFs experienced a decline of over 2%, indicating a negative trend in this sector [1].

周三，美股表现稳健，标普500指数变化不大，再度逼近其历史高点，引发市场广泛关注。 与此同时，纳斯达克综合指数上涨0.3%，道琼斯工业平均指数则下跌0.3%。 | 美股指数 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯 | 纳斯达克 | 标普500 | | 42982.43 | 19973.55 | 6092.16 | | -106.59 -0.25% | +61.02 +0.31% | -0.02 0.00% | | 中国金龙指数 | 纳指100期货 | 标普500期货 | | 7380.73 | 22472.50 | 6146.00 | | -44.55 -0.60% +59.75 +0.27% -0.25 -0.25 - 0.00% | | | | 美国国债 | | | | 3个月期 | 10年期 | 2年期 | | 4.288 | 4.291 | 3.779 | | △ 1.55bp | ▼ 0.59bp | ▼ 4.02bp | 此前一日，随着市场押注伊朗与以色列之间的停火协议有望持续，油价大幅回落，标普500单日上涨逾1%。油价连续两日暴跌， 成为市场反弹的重要推力，其中美国西德 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market continues to reach new highs despite multiple pressures, with the S&P 500's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio at 22 times, significantly above the long-term average of 35% [1] - The market's ability to sustain this upward trend depends on whether corporate earnings can exceed expectations or if the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates [1][4] - The S&P 500 index is currently facing historical challenges, including a new U.S. government's efforts to adjust global order and implement large-scale tariff policies, alongside uncertainties from conflicts in the Middle East [1] Group 2 - The S&P 500's current P/E ratio of 22 times is 35% higher than its long-term average, raising concerns about overvaluation [1][3] - A Bloomberg model suggests that the fair P/E ratio for the S&P 500 should be around 17.7 times, indicating that earnings would need to grow by 30% in the next year for the P/E to return to reasonable levels [3] - Investment strategists express caution regarding the sustainability of current market levels, suggesting that earnings expectations for the second half of the year may be overly optimistic [3][5] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve has indicated that it is not in a hurry to adjust policies, although lower inflation and weak labor recruitment may lead to earlier rate cuts this year [4] - Wall Street strategists recommend viewing any potential market pullbacks as buying opportunities, particularly in technology and growth stocks [5]

Group 1: Market Overview - The report highlights an increase in interest rate cut expectations, driven by easing tensions in the Middle East and supportive statements from Federal Reserve officials regarding a potential rate cut in July, positively impacting both US and Hong Kong stock markets [2][3] - The Hang Seng Index opened at 23,832 points and reached a high of 24,229 points, closing at 24,177 points, marking a daily increase of 487 points or 2.06% [2] - The trading volume in the Hong Kong market increased to 240.5 billion HKD, a rise of 21.1% compared to the previous day, with net inflows from the Northbound trading of 2.589 billion HKD [2] Group 2: Company Overview - Yunzhisheng (9678.HK) - Yunzhisheng is an AI solution provider focusing on conversational AI products, with business segments in smart living and smart healthcare, and has been active in the AI field since its establishment in 2012 [6] - The company reported revenue growth from approximately 601 million CNY in 2022 to an estimated 939 million CNY in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23% [6][7] - Despite revenue growth, the company has faced net losses, projected to be approximately 375 million CNY in 2022, 376 million CNY in 2023, and 454 million CNY in 2024, indicating ongoing financial challenges [6][9] Group 3: Industry Outlook - The AI solutions market in China is expected to grow from 42.2 billion CNY in 2019 to 180.4 billion CNY by 2024, with a CAGR of 33.7%, and projected to reach 1,174.9 billion CNY by 2030 [7] - The market is highly fragmented, with Yunzhisheng holding a market share of 0.6%, ranking fourth among AI solution providers in China based on 2024 revenue [7] Group 4: Competitive Advantages and Opportunities - The company possesses strong technical capabilities, with its self-developed "Shanhai" model featuring 60 billion parameters, recognized for its performance in the medical field [8] - Its applications span various scenarios, including smart homes and healthcare AI, serving 166 hospitals and enhancing efficiency in data entry and quality control [8] Group 5: Financial Position and Risks - Yunzhisheng has faced continuous losses over the past three years, with a cash reserve of 156 million CNY by the end of 2024, indicating significant financial pressure [9] - The company faces intense competition from major players like iFlytek, Baidu, and Alibaba, which may lead to price wars and further pressure on profit margins [9] Group 6: IPO Information - The IPO subscription period is from June 20 to June 25, 2025, with trading expected to commence on June 30, 2025 [10] - The company has secured cornerstone investors, including SenseTime Group and Zhenyi Asset, with a total subscription of 95.5 million HKD, representing 29.65%-36.84% of the international placement [11] Group 7: Fundraising and Utilization - The expected net fundraising amount is 177 million HKD, with approximately 45.6% allocated to enhancing R&D capabilities and 47.0% for investing in emerging business opportunities [12][13]

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market opened high and closed with significant gains, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 2.06%, the Hang Seng Tech Index by 2.14%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index by 1.9% [2] - The technology and financial sectors saw widespread gains, while the oil and gas sector experienced a sharp decline [2][3] Group 2: Technology and Financial Stocks - Major technology and financial stocks rose, with Xiaomi increasing nearly 4%, Hongye Futures soaring over 15%, and China Galaxy rising nearly 9% [4] - Leading insurance stocks included China Taiping and Ping An, while major banks like CCB, ICBC, and CMB reached new highs [4][5] Group 3: Oil and Gas Sector - The oil and gas sector faced significant sell-offs due to a sharp drop in international oil prices, with companies like United Energy Group falling over 21% and Sinopec Oilfield Services down 15.85% [6][7] - Specific stock performances included China Petroleum down 0.30%, Sinopec Oilfield Services down 15.85%, and United Energy Group down 21.21% [8] Group 4: Automotive Sector - The automotive sector benefited from favorable market conditions, with stocks like BYD rising 3.25%, Li Auto up 3.81%, and Leap Motor increasing 4.34% [9][10] - The overall automotive industry showed positive growth, with production and sales in the first five months of the year increasing by over 10% year-on-year, and new energy vehicle sales reaching 44% of total new car sales [12] Group 5: Company-Specific News - Juzhibio saw a rise of 5.27% following a statement addressing the limitations of its current collagen product testing methods [13][14] - The company acknowledged the need for optimization in quality standards and testing methods to meet industry advancements and consumer expectations [18]

夏至后的第一个周末，上海陆家嘴金融区的高层办公室里，老李盯着屏幕上那条几乎走平的K线图，手指无意识地敲着桌面。窗外，黄浦江上游轮缓缓驶 过，江面倒映着两岸霓虹，可老李的心思全在那条3357的支撑线上——它刚刚又顶住了周五全天的三次试探性下探，却始终没力气冲破3370点的压制。屏幕 上那根缩到不足1.3万亿的成交量柱，像根细针扎在他心里："没量，什么都是假的……" 关键压力位3378点近在咫尺——这里不仅是20日均线压制区，更与6月初沪指冲高回落的前期高点精准重叠。而往下看，3357点成了多方最后的防线，周四 盘中四次下探都被托起，技术派们连夜画图，把这里标为"多空生死线"。更下方，3348点被圈为"强弱分水岭"，一旦跌破可能触发程序化交易的自动抛盘， 直奔3330点的箱体底部。 二、资金迷局：北向摇摆与机构调仓暗战 资金动向露出矛盾信号。6月以来北向资金整体净流入，尤其沪股通方向持续加码银行与消费蓝筹，但周五单日突然净流出65亿，外资重仓的科技股应声下 跌。这种摇摆与美联储降息预期推迟到9月直接相关——美元走强趋势下，全球热钱流动更加敏感。 国内机构则在悄悄换防。公募基金受《高质量发展行动方案》约束，被迫减持 ...

Market Overview - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has led to significant volatility in the commodity markets this week [1][2] - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates during its June meeting for the fourth consecutive time, with limited new information provided [1] - Global stock markets showed little movement, with the US dollar rebounding while most non-US currencies weakened [1] US Stock Market - The three major US stock indices experienced slight declines: S&P 500 down 0.15% to 5967.84 points, Dow Jones down 0.02% to 42206.82 points, and Nasdaq down 0.21% to 19447.41 points [1] - The "Big Seven" tech stocks in the US saw a cumulative increase of 0.08%, with Apple rising 2.32% and Nvidia 1.32%, while Google A fell 4.60% [1] European Market - Major European stock indices generally declined, with the STOXX 600 down 1.54%, DAX 30 down 0.70%, CAC 40 down 1.24%, and FTSE 100 down 0.86% [1] Asian Market - The South Korean stock market rose significantly, with a weekly increase of 4.4% and a year-to-date increase of 25.9% [2] - The Nikkei 225 index increased by 1.5%, and the SENSEX 30 index in India rose by 1.59% [2] Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index rose 0.63% to 98.76, while most non-US currencies depreciated, with the euro down 0.26% and the yen down 1.39% against the dollar [2] Commodity Market - Oil prices surged due to heightened geopolitical tensions, with Brent crude oil rising 2.09% to $75.78 per barrel, marking a 20% increase from its yearly low [2] - WTI crude oil increased by 1.45% to $74.04 per barrel, while natural gas futures rose nearly 7.43% [2] - Gold prices fell below $3370 per ounce, down over 1.8%, marking the first decline in three weeks [2] - Platinum prices rose nearly 3% to $1262.2 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 50% [2] Shipping Market - The shipping index (European line) fell by 10.66% due to uncertainties in trade prospects, with the Shanghai export container composite freight index dropping 10.5% to 1869.59 points [3] Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve raised its expectations for economic stagflation, lowering the 2025 growth forecast from 1.7% to 1.4% and increasing core PCE inflation expectations from 2.8% to 3.3% [3] - Recent CPI data indicated a rebound in US inflation, but core inflation remained relatively stable, suggesting that tariff impacts may be less than anticipated [3]

稳定币概念股Circle大涨34%。 *三大股指分化，纳指跌0.13%； *中长期美债收益率探底回升，10年期美债逼近4.40%； *银行股表现不俗，行业有望受益于资本缓冲松绑预期。 周一美股涨跌互现，市场消化美联储最新决议，并关注持续紧张的中东局势。截至收盘，道指跌44.14 点，跌幅0.10%，报42171.66点，纳指涨0.13%，报19546.27点，标普500指数跌0.03%，报5980.87点。美 国股市周四因六月节假期休市。 券商Spartan Capital Securities首席市场经济学家卡尔蒂略（Peter Cardillo）表示："市场可能从收益率走 势中得到启示。在美联储确定关税对通胀的影响之前，不会改变货币政策，鲍威尔多次强调这一点。" 市场概述 美联储周三宣布，维持联邦基金利率区间4.25%-4.50%不变，符合市场预期。联邦公开市场委员会 FOMC经济预测摘要显示，今年降息两次的利率前景不变，同时降低了经济增长预期并提高了通胀预 测。 美联储主席鲍威尔表示，货币政策仍需对经济施加一些限制。美联储政策制定者预计，随着美国总统特 朗普的关税对美国消费者的影响，商品价格通胀将在今年 ...