国泰君安期货·能源化工 胶版印刷纸周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·石忆宁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0022533 日期：2026年1月11日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 行业资讯 01 行情走势 02 供需数据 03 行情研判 04 行业资讯 现货价格 成本利润 季节性特征 供给 需求 库存 进出口 行情研判 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 行业资讯 1 行业资讯 1、本周双胶纸市场横盘运行。据卓创资讯数据显示，本周70g木浆高白双胶纸市场均价为4725元/吨，环比持平，本周趋势延续稳定；70g 木浆本白双胶纸市场均价为4454元/吨，环比持平，与上周趋势相比由涨转稳。影响市场价格走势的主要因素有：第一，月初个别纸企报盘上 调，出货基本稳定，经销商谨慎拿货为主，备货意愿偏低；第二，江西地区个别停机产线复产，市场供应压力增加；第三，出版订单继续提 货，下游印厂社会面接单有限，采买热情欠佳，整体交投偏刚需；第四，上游木浆价格部分上涨，成本面对双胶纸支撑 ...

Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 国泰君安期货·能源化工 纸浆周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·高琳琳 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002332 日期：2026年1月11日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 行业资讯 01 行情数据 02 基本面数据 03 本周观点总结 04 行业资讯 行情走势 基差与月差 现货价格 供给 库存 需求 本周观点总结 行业资讯 行业资讯 1 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 4 资料来源：中纸网，隆众资讯 1.【常熟港纸浆库存统计】截至2026年1月8日，中国纸浆常熟港库存52.5万吨，较上周期下降2.3万吨，环比下降4.2%。本周常熟港库存呈现去库走势。 2.【青岛港纸浆库存统计】截至2026年1月8日，中国青岛港港内及港外仓库纸浆库存134.2万吨，较上周上涨0.3万吨，环比上涨0.2%。本周期青岛港库存周期内呈 现累库的走势。 3.【高栏港纸浆库存统计】截至2026年1月8日，中 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China has facilitated the first batch of financial financing for the paper industry transformation in Shandong, amounting to 125 million yuan, aimed at supporting green transformation initiatives in the sector [2][4]. Group 1: Company Overview - Asia Symbol (Shandong) Pulp and Paper Co., Ltd. is a leading enterprise in the integrated pulp and paper industry cluster in Rizhao, owned 90% by Asia Symbol Rizhao Pte. Ltd., a subsidiary of Singapore's Golden Eagle Group [4]. - The company is recognized as one of the largest producers of commodity wood pulp in China and has been actively pursuing financial means to promote green transformation [7]. Group 2: Financial Initiatives - The recent financing includes a 120 million yuan credit certificate for Asia Symbol, which links the issuance fee to the company's emission reduction performance, focusing on energy-saving and carbon reduction technology upgrades [2][4]. - A supply chain financing loan of 5 million yuan was also provided to Rizhao Xiaolongtai Paper Co., Ltd., incentivizing upstream clients with interest rate discounts based on carbon reduction performance [7]. Group 3: Industry Context - The Rizhao integrated pulp and paper industry cluster has been selected as one of the "Top Ten Industries" in Shandong Province for 2025, highlighting its significance in the regional economy [7]. - The low-carbon transformation of the paper industry has become a crucial development direction, with transformation finance playing a vital role in supporting high-emission sectors in their transition to low-carbon operations [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that a short-term supply-demand gap for wood chips is expected to emerge in 2026, with a positive outlook for the recovery of wood chip and pulp prices [1] - In the short term, domestic production of self-made pulp has increased significantly, but the construction cycle for high-quality wood chip resources lags behind equipment production [1] - It is anticipated that the domestic wood chip market will experience a temporary supply gap in 2026, leading to a rise in raw material costs [1] Group 2 - As demand improves marginally, the price center for pulp is expected to recover in 2026 [1] - Leading companies with full industry chain self-sufficiency will continue to capitalize on the premium opportunities from "manufacturing" to "resource revaluation" [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the market for wood pulp is experiencing price increases in the external market, while domestic prices are showing signs of slowing growth. The report anticipates a continued rise in pulp prices by January 2026, with gradual price transmission for white paper and ongoing increases for black paper [1][6]. Group 2 - Cultural paper prices are under pressure due to weak demand, with the average market price for 70g wood pulp high white double glue paper at 4730 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 0.04% month-on-month. Factors influencing this include cautious purchasing behavior from distributors and a lack of effective price transmission from wood pulp to paper [2]. - White cardboard prices are rising, with the average market price for 250-400g flat white cardboard at 4237 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.98% month-on-month. This is attributed to low price levels and cost pressures, with some traders raising prices by 50-100 yuan/ton [3]. - The price of corrugated paper is under pressure, with the average market price for AA-grade 120g corrugated paper at 3129 yuan/ton, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 1.29%. Contributing factors include a mixed sentiment among suppliers and limited improvement in demand from the packaging sector [4]. - The waste paper market is experiencing an overall price decline, with the average price for waste yellow board paper at 1767 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.18% month-on-month. This is due to increased supply and a bearish outlook from downstream paper mills [5]. - The wood pulp market is characterized by a mixed price trend, with external prices for broadleaf pulp continuing to rise while domestic prices are stabilizing. The average price for wood pulp is influenced by fluctuations in futures contracts and varying supply-demand dynamics [6].

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Pulp Morning Report [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [2] - Report date: January 8, 2026 [2] Group 2: SP Main Contract Closing Price - Closing price on January 7, 2026: 5596.00 [3] - Closing prices from January 5 to December 30, 2025: 5530.00, 5612.00, 5532.00, 5568.00 [3] - Dollar - converted prices and daily changes from January 5 to December 30, 2025: 692.18 (-0.03615%), 702.51 (1.48282%), 691.61 (-0.64655%), 696.05 (1.05263%) [3] - Shandong Yinxing basis and Jiangsu - Zhejiang - Shanghai Yinxing basis from January 5 to December 30, 2025: 35, -22, 58, 22; 30, -22, 28, -8 [3] Group 3: Import Information - Import profit calculation based on 13% VAT: Canada's Golden Lion (CFR, port price 780, Shandong RMB price 6300, profit 69.01), Canada's Lion (CFR, port price 730, Shandong RMB price 5590, profit -246.05), Chile's Yinxing (CFR 90 - day credit, port price 700, Shandong RMB price 5590, profit -9.09) [4] - Exchange rate on the previous day: 6.99 [4] Group 4: Price Averages - National and Shandong price averages of different pulp types from December 30, 2025, to January 7, 2026: no change in all types including softwood, hardwood, natural, and chemimechanical pulp [4] - Price indexes of cultural paper, packaging paper, and living paper from December 31, 2025, to January 7, 2026: no change in cultural and packaging paper indexes; living paper index changed from 859 to 863 and back to 859 [4] Group 5: Profit Margins - Profit margins of different paper types from December 31, 2025, to January 7, 2026: double - offset paper margin changed from -4.8428% to -5.3540%, double - copper paper margin changed from 5.6167% to 5.1750%, white cardboard margin changed from -9.2148% to -9.7229%, living paper margin changed from 4.1121% to 3.9350% [4] Group 6: Price Spreads - Price spreads between different pulp types from January 7 to December 30, 2025: softwood - hardwood spread 850.00, 890, 890, 915, 930; softwood - natural spread 190, 190, 165, 190, 190; softwood - chemimechanical spread 1715, 1715, 1690, 1740, 1740; softwood - waste paper spread 4014, 4014, 3989, 4014, 4014 [4]

中金发布研报称，造纸产业链目前呈现"资源端高度集中，加工端分散博弈"特征，纸浆作为稀缺禀赋资 源品、掌握强定价权。当前中国纸企已步入存量博弈成熟期，单纯靠资本开支驱动的增长难以为继，战 略核心已转向利用自有纤维对冲金融属性强的浆价波动。继续看好2026年"林浆纸一体化"龙头表现，在 资源约束与成本波动下，一体化是实现成本对冲与资源重估的核心。建议聚焦具备高纤维自给率、拥有 资源壁垒的"价值整合者"。 本文源自：格隆汇 | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 √ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 02689 | 玖龙纸业 | 6.890 | 10.42% | | 02314 | 理文造纸 | 3.090 | 6.92% | | 01812 | 眉暗纸业 | 0.810 | 3.85% | 1月7日，港股纸业股涨幅进一步扩大，其中，玖龙纸业大涨超10%刷新阶段新高，理文造纸涨近7%， 晨鸣纸业涨近4%。 消息上，近期，以玖龙、山鹰、理文、荣成为代表的包装纸企业大规模停机检修，主动收缩产能；博 汇、APP、万国纸业、亚太森博等白卡纸及文化纸厂商集体宣布涨价。这种"停机+涨价"的并存的现 ...

中金发布研报称，造纸产业链目前呈现"资源端高度集中，加工端分散博弈"特征，纸浆作为稀缺禀赋资 源品、掌握强定价权。当前中国纸企已步入存量博弈成熟期，单纯靠资本开支驱动的增长难以为继，战 略核心已转向利用自有纤维对冲金融属性强的浆价波动。继续看好2026年"林浆纸一体化"龙头表现，在 资源约束与成本波动下，一体化是实现成本对冲与资源重估的核心。建议聚焦具备高纤维自给率、拥有 资源壁垒的"价值整合者"。 | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 涨跌幅 v | | --- | --- | --- | | 02689 | 玖龙纸业 | 6.890 10.42% | | 02314 理文造纸 | | 3.090 6.92% | | 01812 | 眉喝纸业 | 0.810 3.85% | 港股纸业股涨幅进一步扩大，其中，玖龙纸业大涨超10%刷新阶段新高，理文造纸涨近7%，晨鸣纸业 涨近4%。 消息上，近期，以玖龙、山鹰、理文、荣成为代表的包装纸企业大规模停机检修，主动收缩产能；博 汇、APP、万国纸业、亚太森博等白卡纸及文化纸厂商集体宣布涨价。这种"停机+涨价"的并存的现 象，凸显不同纸种在成本结构、供需关系和市场预期上的显著 ...

Core Viewpoint - The paper industry stocks have seen significant gains, with companies like Nine Dragons Paper (玖龙纸业) and Lee & Man Paper (理文造纸) experiencing notable increases in their stock prices due to recent price adjustments and production strategies in the sector [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Nine Dragons Paper (02689) rose by 9.62%, reaching HKD 6.84 [1] - Lee & Man Paper (02314) increased by 5.88%, reaching HKD 3.06 [1] - Chenming Paper (晨鸣纸业) saw a rise of 1.28%, reaching HKD 0.79 [1] Group 2: Price Adjustments - Nine Dragons Paper announced a price increase of RMB 50 per ton for all kraft and corrugated paper at its Quanzhou base starting January 5, 2026 [1] - The Dongguan base of Nine Dragons Paper will also raise the price of recycled kraft paper by RMB/HKD 50 per ton (USD 7 per ton) starting January 4, 2026 [1] Group 3: Industry Trends - Several large paper companies have indicated plans to proactively reduce production or slow down expansion, alleviating pressure from new capacity in the industry [1] - According to CICC's report, the paper industry is characterized by a "highly concentrated resource end and a dispersed processing end," with pulp being a scarce resource that holds strong pricing power [1] - Chinese paper companies have entered a mature phase of stock competition, where growth driven solely by capital expenditure is no longer sustainable, shifting the strategic focus to utilizing proprietary fibers to hedge against the volatility of pulp prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the offshore RMB against the USD, surpassing the 7.0 mark, has sparked mixed reactions regarding its impact on the economy, highlighting that both appreciation and depreciation have structural implications for different industries [1][2]. Group 1: Benefits of RMB Appreciation - Lowering import costs and aiding industrial upgrades: Industries reliant on imported raw materials and high-end equipment, such as paper manufacturing and high-tech sectors, benefit from reduced production costs due to RMB appreciation [4]. - Alleviating imported inflation and stabilizing domestic prices: The appreciation of the RMB can lower the import prices of commodities priced in USD, helping to stabilize domestic prices and benefiting consumers [5]. - Enhancing the international status of the RMB and attracting foreign investment: A stronger RMB increases its international credibility, making RMB-denominated assets more attractive to foreign investors, which can improve market liquidity and support the internationalization of the RMB [6]. Group 2: Challenges of RMB Appreciation - Direct impact on export industries: RMB appreciation makes Chinese goods more expensive in international markets, reducing price competitiveness, particularly affecting labor-intensive sectors like textiles and electronics [7]. - Risk of attracting speculative capital: A perception of unilateral RMB appreciation may lead to an influx of speculative capital, potentially inflating asset prices and complicating financial management [8]. Group 3: Benefits of RMB Depreciation - Stimulating exports: Depreciation makes Chinese goods cheaper for foreign buyers, increasing orders and profits for export companies [9]. - Promoting domestic employment: Increased orders for export companies can lead to expanded production and job creation, particularly in labor-intensive industries [10]. - Attracting foreign tourism and consumption: A weaker RMB allows foreign tourists to exchange more currency for RMB, reducing their costs in China and boosting the tourism sector [11]. Group 4: Challenges of RMB Depreciation - Rising import costs and inflation: Industries dependent on imported raw materials face increased costs, which may be passed on to consumers, leading to higher domestic prices [12]. - Increased external debt pressure: Sectors with significant USD-denominated debt may face heightened repayment burdens due to depreciation, impacting their financial stability [12]. Group 5: Overall Perspective - There is no absolute "good" or "bad" regarding RMB appreciation or depreciation; the ideal scenario is maintaining a stable exchange rate that aligns with current economic needs, avoiding extreme fluctuations [13].