Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market indices closed lower on October 6, with the Hang Seng Index down by 0.67%, the Hang Seng Tech Index down by 1.1%, and the National Enterprises Index down by 0.88% [1][2]. Sector Performance - Technology stocks mostly declined, with major players like Li Auto down over 3%, and Alibaba Health, Alibaba, Haier Smart Home, and Bilibili all down over 2% [4][5]. - The gaming sector saw significant losses, with SJM Holdings down over 6% and MGM China down over 4% [6]. - The paper industry also faced declines, with companies like Hengan Group down over 5% and Nine Dragons Paper down over 3% [7]. - The tourism sector performed poorly, with Yinghai Group down over 11% and Ctrip down over 2% [8]. Gold and Precious Metals - Gold and precious metals stocks surged, with C Gold Mining up over 40% and Shenglong International up over 27% [9]. - Spot gold prices reached a new high of $3,940 per ounce, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid global economic concerns [9]. Cryptocurrency Sector - The cryptocurrency sector showed strong performance, with OSL Group up over 12% and Boya Interactive up over 7% [10][11]. - Bitcoin reached a historical high of $125,689, supported by inflows into risk assets amid the U.S. government shutdown [11]. Medical Equipment and Supplies - Medical equipment and supplies stocks saw notable gains, with Jin Hai Medical Technology and Bai Xin An-B both up over 9% [12][13]. Semiconductor Sector - Semiconductor stocks like SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor saw price increases, with SMIC reaching a new high of HKD 92.8 and Hua Hong up 4.57% [14][17]. - Goldman Sachs raised the target prices for SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor to HKD 117, citing opportunities in China's expanding AI ecosystem [21].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese paper industry is projected to experience growth in production, with a forecasted output of 13.94 million tons of paper and paperboard in July 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.8% [1] Industry Summary - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the cumulative production of paper and paperboard in China from January to July 2025 is expected to reach 9.3623 million tons, reflecting a cumulative growth of 3.6% [1] - The report by Zhiyan Consulting provides insights into the market research and development prospects of the Chinese paper industry from 2025 to 2031 [1] Company Summary - Listed companies in the paper industry include Sun Paper Industry (002078), Chenming Paper (000488), Bohui Paper (600966), Yueyang Forest & Paper (600963), Shanying International (600567), and Hengfeng Paper (600356) [1]

Core Insights - Multiple packaging paper companies have announced a new round of price increases, marking the 10th price hike since August [1] - The demand surge due to the upcoming holidays, combined with rising raw material costs, particularly waste paper, has driven up the price of original paper [1] Industry Summary - The cost of original paper constitutes 70% to 80% of the total cost of producing cartons, leading to increased prices for finished cartons [1] - Since the end of July, the prices of corrugated paper and kraft paper have been consistently rising, directly impacting carton prices [1] - Increased demand for waste paper and supply disruptions due to recent rainfall have contributed to the rising prices of waste paper [1]

Core Viewpoint - Nine Dragons Paper Holdings Limited (玖龙纸业) announced the resignation of Zhang Lianru as an executive director, effective September 30, 2025, due to the need to dedicate time to other work [1] Company Summary - Zhang Lianru's resignation is part of a strategic decision to allocate time to other responsibilities, which may impact the company's leadership structure moving forward [1]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America Securities expects Nine Dragons Paper (02689) to maintain higher dollar-denominated profits than its peers, but further expanding this advantage may face challenges [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Nine Dragons Paper's fiscal year 2025 second half performance exceeded expectations, primarily due to cost savings from its own pulp supply, which was better than anticipated [1] - The estimated net profit per ton for the second half of fiscal year 2025 is approximately 129 RMB, with around 80 RMB attributed to cost leadership advantages [1] Group 2: Production and Cost Dynamics - The company's self-produced pulp output is projected to increase from 3 million tons in fiscal year 2025 to an estimated 4.7 million tons in fiscal year 2026, with further increases expected post-2027 [2] - However, the effects of reduced unit costs and profit margin expansion may weaken, as seen in the Guangxi Beihai plant's double-sided paper products, where net profit per ton has decreased from 800-1,000 RMB to 500-600 RMB due to competition and rising raw material costs [2] - To address potential wood chip shortages, Nine Dragons has leased vessels for possible imports and anticipates a slight increase in procurement costs in the foreseeable future [2] Group 3: Valuation and Ratings - Bank of America Securities has slightly lowered its fiscal year 2026 to 2027 forecasts for Nine Dragons Paper and reduced the target price by 8% to 6 HKD, while reiterating a "Buy" rating due to attractive valuation at 7.4 times the projected 2026 price-to-earnings ratio [1]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America Securities expects Nine Dragons Paper (02689) to maintain higher dollar-denominated profits than its peers, but further expanding this advantage may face challenges [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Nine Dragons Paper's fiscal year 2025 second half performance exceeded expectations, primarily due to cost savings from its own pulp supply, which was better than anticipated [1] - The estimated net profit per ton for the second half of fiscal year 2025 is approximately 129 RMB, with around 80 RMB attributed to cost leadership advantages [1] Group 2: Production and Cost Dynamics - The company's self-produced pulp output is projected to increase from 3 million tons in fiscal year 2025 to an estimated 4.7 million tons in fiscal year 2026, with further increases expected post-2027 [2] - However, the effects of reduced unit costs and profit margin expansion may weaken due to competition and rising raw material prices, such as domestic wood chip prices increasing from 1,000 RMB per ton to 1,200 RMB per ton [2] - The net profit per ton for the high-margin double-coated paper products at the Beihai factory has decreased from 800-1,000 RMB to a recent 500-600 RMB due to new competitors and rising costs [2] - To address potential wood chip shortages, Nine Dragons Paper has leased ships for possible imports and anticipates a slight increase in procurement costs in the foreseeable future [2]

Core Viewpoint - Xianhe Co., Ltd. plans to raise up to 3 billion yuan through a private placement of shares to expand its production capacity in the specialty paper industry, aiming to solidify its market leadership position [2][3]. Group 1: Fundraising and Investment Plans - The company intends to issue no more than 212 million shares, raising a total of up to 3 billion yuan, with 2.1 billion yuan allocated to the second phase of the high-performance paper-based new materials project in Guangxi [2][3]. - The remaining 900 million yuan will be used to supplement working capital, addressing the increased funding needs due to major project advancements [7]. Group 2: Production Capacity and Financial Performance - Upon full production, the Guangxi project will add a total annual production capacity of 1.3 million tons of pulp and paper, including 600,000 tons of specialty paper [3][4]. - As of mid-2025, the company reported a total asset of 24.82 billion yuan and a debt-to-asset ratio of 66.69%, indicating a need to improve financial stability through the new fundraising [7]. - In the first half of 2025, Xianhe Co. achieved a specialty pulp production of 1.1079 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 98.55%, and a revenue of 5.991 billion yuan, up 30.14% [6][7]. Group 3: Strategic Development and Market Position - The company has been deeply engaged in the specialty paper industry for over 20 years, becoming one of the largest producers with a comprehensive range of products [5]. - Xianhe Co. is also investing in a 11 billion yuan bamboo pulp project in Sichuan, further expanding its production capabilities [6]. - The Guangxi project is part of a broader strategy to integrate the entire supply chain from forest to pulp and paper, enhancing production efficiency and profitability [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - Nine Dragons Paper's FY25 results met expectations, with a revenue increase of 6.3% YoY to Rmb63.24 billion and a net profit attributable to shareholders of Rmb1.77 billion, reflecting a significant 176% HoH increase in 2HFY25 [1]. Sales and Production Trends - The company reported a total sales volume increase of 10% YoY to 21.5 million tonnes in FY25, driven by growth in kraft paper (+1.10 million tonnes), ivory board (+500,000 tonnes), and P&W paper (+400,000 tonnes) [1]. - For FY26, the company has commissioned 1.2 million tonnes of ivory board paper, 350,000 tonnes of P&W paper, and 700,000 tonnes of chemical pulp in 1HFY26, with plans for an additional 350,000 tonnes of P&W paper within the year [2]. - Forecasts indicate paper production and sales volume will increase by over 5% YoY in FY26, with plans to commission 700,000 tonnes of ivory board paper in Chongqing and another 500,000 tonnes in Tianjin in 1HFY27 [3]. Pricing and Profitability - The company anticipates a near-term recovery in linerboard and corrugated board prices, estimating profit per tonne (before interest on perpetual bonds) at Rmb59 in 1HFY25 and Rmb151 in 2HFY25, with the latter benefiting from increased self-produced pulp output and lower thermal coal prices [4]. - Price hikes for linerboard and corrugated board have been progressing since July, supported by improving industry demand and rising domestic wastepaper prices, although costs per tonne have slightly increased due to rising coal and wastepaper prices [4]. Capital Expenditure and Financial Outlook - In FY25, the company's capex reached Rmb14.8 billion, a 15.7% YoY increase, while the debt-to-asset ratio rose by 1 percentage point YoY to 66%. For FY26, capex is guided at Rmb11 billion, reflecting ongoing expansion efforts [5]. - Following the implementation of cost-cutting and efficiency measures, earnings forecasts for FY26 and FY27 have been raised by 11% and 15% to Rmb2.75 billion and Rmb2.88 billion, respectively. The stock is currently trading at 0.5x and 0.4x P/B, with a target price increase of 17% to HK$7, indicating a 22% upside [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Crude Oil**: Near - term oil prices are subject to many disturbances. Geopolitical tensions push up prices, but supply - side pressure remains significant. OPEC+ may increase production. Short - term Brent crude is expected to trade in the range of $67.8 - 70 per barrel [1][2]. - **Asphalt**: Cost support is strong, but demand is weak in the short term due to the approaching holiday and rainy weather. Supply remains high. Prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level, and crack spreads are expected to be bearish in the medium term [3][4][5]. - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil prices are suppressed by high inventories, and low - sulfur fuel oil supply is increasing while demand lacks a clear driver [5][6][7]. - **PX & PTA**: PX is in a tight balance with a reduced de - stocking rate. PTA's supply - demand contradiction is alleviated, and inventory accumulation pressure is not large. Prices are mainly affected by the macro - environment and cost [7][9][10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weaker than last year. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation [11][12]. - **Short Fiber**: Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate strongly due to rising raw material prices, but processing fees are expected to remain low [13][15]. - **PR (Bottle Chip)**: Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate strongly due to rising raw material prices. Processing fees are expected to fluctuate at a low level as demand transitions from peak to off - peak [15][16]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: In the short term, prices may fluctuate strongly due to geopolitical risks and macro - sentiment. In the long term, there is an expectation of inventory accumulation, and prices are expected to decline [18][19][20]. - **Propylene**: Supply is increasing, and the market is overall loose. Downstream product profits are poor. It is recommended to short on rebounds [20][21][22]. - **Plastic PP**: Supply is expected to face new capacity releases, and demand in October is expected to be weak. It is recommended to wait and see during the holiday and short on rebounds in the medium term [22][23][24]. - **Caustic Soda**: It is currently in a state of weak reality and strong expectation. Short - term trading focuses on weak reality, but the medium - term supply - demand outlook is positive [24][25][26]. - **PVC**: Supply is increasing, demand is weak, and exports are expected to decline. It is recommended to hold short positions lightly during the holiday [26][27][28]. - **Soda Ash**: Before the holiday, prices are expected to remain stable. After the holiday, the market may be weak. It is recommended to hold light or no positions during the holiday [30][31][32]. - **Glass**: Before the holiday, prices are expected to fluctuate. Demand is relatively weak, and the sustainability of the upward trend needs attention [33][34][35]. - **Log**: Supply is abundant, and demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies [35][36][38]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Supply is expected to increase slightly, demand is weak, and cost support is limited. It is recommended to short the 01 contract [39][40]. - **Pulp**: Short - term supply and demand are both weak, but the market is stabilizing. It is recommended to buy on dips [40][41][42]. - **Natural Rubber & No. 20 Rubber**: It is recommended to short the RU 01 contract and wait and see for the NR 11 contract [43][44][45]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The BR 11 contract should be observed after hitting the stop - loss. Hold the spread position of BR2511 - RU2501 [47][48]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2511 rose $0.74 to $65.72 per barrel (+1.14%); Brent2511 rose $0.71 to $70.13 per barrel (+1.02%); SC2511 rose to 495 yuan per barrel at night [1]. - **Related News**: Iraq's northern oil pipeline resumes operation; OPEC+ may increase production by at least 137,000 barrels per day; the US asks India to reduce Russian oil purchases [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: expect wide - range fluctuations, with the intraday range of the Brent main contract at $67.8 - 70 per barrel; arbitrage: gasoline and diesel cracks are weak; options: wait and see [2][3]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2511 closed at 3463 points at night (+0.35%); BU2512 closed at 3425 points at night (+0.50%). Spot prices in different regions showed different trends [3]. - **Related News**: Demand in different regions is different, and crude oil price increases support asphalt prices, but some refineries are still accumulating inventory [3][4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: expect range - bound fluctuations; arbitrage: the asphalt - crude oil spread is expected to weaken; options: sell out - of - the - money call options on BU2512 [4][5]. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU01 closed at 2972 (+1.99%); LU11 closed at 3525 (+1.59%). Singapore paper - cargo spreads changed [5]. - **Related News**: Nigerian refinery lays off workers; Russian refinery is attacked [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: the FU main contract is expected to be strongly volatile, and the LU near - month contract will fluctuate with crude oil; arbitrage: consider widening the LU01 - FU01 spread; options: sell out - of - the - money call options on FU01 [6][7]. PX & PTA - **Market Review**: PX2511 closed at 6690 at night (+0.51%); TA601 closed at 4670 at night (+0.52%). PX spot prices fell, and PTA spot trading was weak [7]. - **Related News**: PX and PTA operating rates increased, and polyester operating rates decreased [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: short - term prices are expected to fluctuate strongly, and medium - to - long - term, it is recommended to short on rallies; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [10][11]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG2601 closed at 4238 at night (+0.59%). Spot and futures basis are given [11]. - **Related News**: The overall operating rate of ethylene glycol decreased, and downstream sales were poor [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: expect weak fluctuations; arbitrage: wait and see; options: sell call options [12][13]. Short Fiber - **Market Review**: PF2511 closed at 6350 at night (+0.38%). Spot prices in different regions are stable [13]. - **Related News**: Downstream sales were poor [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: short - term prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [15]. PR (Bottle Chip) - **Market Review**: PR2511 closed at 5820 at night (+0.31%). Spot trading was light [15]. - **Related News**: The bottle - chip operating rate decreased, and polyester operating rates decreased slightly [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: short - term prices are expected to fluctuate strongly; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [16][18]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Review**: BZ2503 closed at 5921 at night (+0.30%); EB2511 closed at 6969 at night (+0.29%). Spot prices in different regions are given [18]. - **Related News**: The operating rates of pure benzene and styrene and their downstream industries changed [18]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: short - term prices are expected to fluctuate strongly, and medium - to - long - term, it is recommended to short on rallies; arbitrage: long pure benzene and short styrene; options: wait and see [19][20]. Propylene - **Market Review**: PL2601 closed at 6396 at night (+0.49%). Spot prices in different regions are given [20][21]. - **Related News**: The propylene operating rate increased [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: short on rebounds; arbitrage: wait and see; options: sell put options [22]. Plastic PP - **Market Review**: Spot prices of LLDPE and PP in different regions showed different trends [22][23]. - **Related News**: PE and PP maintenance ratios changed [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: wait and see during the holiday, and short on rebounds in the medium term; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [23][24]. Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: Spot prices of caustic soda in different regions changed [24]. - **Related News**: The price of liquid chlorine decreased [25]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: short - term focus on weak reality, medium - term focus on long opportunities; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [25][26]. PVC - **Market Review**: PVC spot prices fluctuated slightly, and trading was light [27]. - **Related News**: The price of calcium carbide decreased [27]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: hold short positions lightly during the holiday; arbitrage: conduct 1 - 5 and 3 - 5 month - spread reverse arbitrage; options: wait and see [27][28][30]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The futures price of soda ash changed, and spot prices in different regions are given [30]. - **Related News**: Soda ash production reached a historical high, and inventory decreased [31]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: prices are expected to be stable before the holiday and weak after the holiday. Hold light or no positions during the holiday; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [31][32][33]. Glass - **Market Review**: The futures price of glass changed, and spot prices in different regions are given [33]. - **Related News**: Glass production increased, inventory decreased, and profits improved slightly [34]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: prices are expected to fluctuate before the holiday. Pay attention to demand and the sustainability of the upward trend; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [34][35]. Log - **Market Review**: Spot prices of logs in different regions are stable, and the 11 - month contract fluctuated slightly [35]. - **Related News**: The number of incoming log ships increased, and inventory decreased [36]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: short the LG2511 contract on rallies; arbitrage: wait and see; options: sell LG2511 - C - 820 [38][39]. Offset Printing Paper - **Market Review**: Spot prices of offset printing paper are stable, and raw material prices changed slightly [39]. - **Related News**: Production and inventory of offset printing paper increased [40]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: short the 01 contract; arbitrage: wait and see; options: sell OP2601 - C - 4500 [40]. Pulp - **Market Review**: The futures price of pulp decreased, and spot prices of different pulp types changed [40][41]. - **Related News**: A new pulp project was put into operation [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: buy on dips; arbitrage: wait and see and pay attention to the 11 - 1 reverse spread; options: wait and see [42][43]. Natural Rubber & No. 20 Rubber - **Market Review**: Futures prices of natural rubber and No. 20 rubber decreased, and spot prices in different regions are given [43][44]. - **Related News**: The US - EU trade agreement imposes tariffs on EU auto products [45]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: short the RU 01 contract and wait and see for the NR 11 contract; arbitrage: conduct the spread trade of BR2511 - RU2601; options: wait and see [45][46]. Butadiene Rubber - **Market Review**: The futures price of butadiene rubber decreased, and spot prices in different regions are given [47]. - **Related News**: The US - EU trade agreement imposes tariffs on EU auto products [48]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: observe after hitting the stop - loss; arbitrage: hold the spread position of BR2511 - RU2501; options: wait and see [48][49].

Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 行业资讯 1 国泰君安期货·能源化工 胶版印刷纸周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·石忆宁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0022533 日期：2025年9月28日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 行业资讯 01 行情走势 02 供需数据 03 行情研判 04 行业资讯 现货价格 成本利润 季节性特征 供给 需求 库存 进出口 行情研判 行业资讯 1.【国内双胶纸周度企业库存分析】据卓创资讯数据监测统计，本周四双胶纸库存天数较上周四上升1.26%，本周增幅环比扩大0.25个百分 点。行业整体开工水平回升，货源供应量增加，但市场需求跟进有限，纸厂库存进一步累积。 2.【国内双胶纸周度企业开工负荷分析】据卓创资讯数据统计，本周双胶纸开工负荷率在51.54%，环比上升0.76个百分点，本周增幅环比扩 大0.10个百分点。周内山东个别产线开工回升，其余规模纸厂开工水平变化不大，行业开工负荷率小幅提升。 资料来源： 卓创资讯，国泰君安期货研 ...