Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For copper, the market anticipates a Fed rate cut in September due to inflation and consumer sentiment. Despite supply disruptions, overall supply is sufficient, and demand may show a "not-so-peak season" pattern. The price is expected to consolidate at a high level [2][3][5] - For alumina, the price is expected to remain weak as supply stays high, and the surplus will gradually be reflected in social inventory [12][13] - For electrolytic aluminum, the price may be supported by the expected rate cut and the upcoming consumption season. Attention should be paid to inventory trends and overseas project progress [16][20] - For casting aluminum alloy, the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The industry is affected by policy changes, and the supply is tightening [22][27][28] - For zinc, the price may be range-bound and bullish in the short term due to external support and the consumption season, despite the oversupply situation [33][35][36] - For lead, the price may rise slightly as smelter production cuts increase [40][41] - For nickel, the price may fluctuate strongly in the short term due to macro events and potential supply disruptions [44][45][46] - For stainless steel, the price is expected to follow the upward trend of nickel and show a strong oscillation [48][51][52] - For tin, the price may remain volatile as the demand peak season has not materialized [55][58][59] - For industrial silicon, the price may rebound in the short term due to supply - side reform expectations and increased demand from polysilicon [61][63][64] - For polysilicon, the price is expected to rise, and it is recommended to hold long positions and take partial profits near the previous high [67][68][69] - For lithium carbonate, the price may continue to decline in the short term and is waiting for a stabilization signal [70][73][74] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai copper 2510 closed at 79,660 yuan/ton, down 0.06%, and the open interest increased. The spot market was weak due to high prices [2] - **Important Information**: Statements from the US Treasury Secretary, a call from the German economic minister, a production cut at a Chilean mine, and other news [2] - **Logic Analysis**: Macro data strengthened the expectation of a Fed rate cut. The supply decreased in August and September, but imports increased. Consumption showed a weakening trend [2] - **Trading Strategy**: Consolidate at a high level for single - side trading. Consider cross - market positive arbitrage and cross - month arbitrage. Wait and see for options [5] Alumina - **Market Review**: The futures price of alumina 2510 rose 18 yuan to 3,010 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased. The spot price declined [7] - **Related Information**: Spot transactions, capacity operation, warehouse receipts, and production cuts due to environmental protection [8][9] - **Logic Analysis**: The spot market became more active, but the price is expected to fall. The overall supply is high, and warehouse receipts may increase [12] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to be weak for single - side trading. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [13][14] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai aluminum 2510 rose 50 yuan to 20,720 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased. The spot price increased [16] - **Related Information**: PMI data, inventory changes, and overseas project progress [16][17] - **Trading Logic**: The expected rate cut and inventory trends are the focus. Overseas projects are progressing as planned [20] - **Trading Strategy**: Not provided Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The futures price of casting aluminum alloy 2511 rose 25 yuan to 20,300 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased. The spot price was stable in most regions [22] - **Related Information**: Policy changes in the recycled aluminum industry, inventory changes, and import/export data [22][23][26] - **Trading Logic**: Policy changes affect the industry, and the supply is tightening. The price may be stable and slightly bullish [27] - **Trading Strategy**: Fluctuate at a high level for single - side trading. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [25][28][29] Zinc - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai zinc 2510 rose 0.59% to 22,325 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased. The spot market was average [31] - **Related Information**: Inventory increase and a production cut at a smelter [32] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of zinc concentrate is sufficient, but the refined zinc output may decrease in September. Demand may improve in the consumption season [33][35] - **Trading Strategy**: Range - bound and bullish in the short term for single - side trading. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [36] Lead - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai lead 2510 rose 0.06% to 16,850 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased. The spot market had low procurement enthusiasm [38] - **Related Information**: Implementation of a new electric bicycle standard [39] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of lead concentrate is tight, and smelter production cuts are increasing. Demand remains weak [40] - **Trading Strategy**: The price may rise slightly for single - side trading. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [41][42] Nickel - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai nickel NI2510 fell 240 to 122,530 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased. The spot premium decreased [44] - **Related Information**: Unrest in Indonesia, new RKAB quota regulations, and project awards [45] - **Logic Analysis**: Macro events may increase price volatility. Although the unrest has not affected production, there are potential risks [45] - **Trading Strategy**: Fluctuate strongly for single - side trading. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [46][49] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The futures price of SS2510 rose 85 to 12,960 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased. The spot price was stable [48] - **Important Information**: Rising nickel prices and global stainless - steel production data [51] - **Logic Analysis**: The price follows the upward trend of nickel. Inventory decreased slightly, and the consumption season may bring optimism [51] - **Trading Strategy**: Strong oscillation for single - side trading. Wait and see for arbitrage [52][53] Tin - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai tin 2510 rose 210 yuan/ton to 273,980 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased. The spot market was quiet [55] - **Related Information**: Statements from the US Treasury Secretary and a production cut at a smelter [56] - **Logic Analysis**: The Fed's dovish stance continues. The supply of tin concentrate is tight, and demand is in the off - season [58] - **Trading Strategy**: Volatile for single - side trading. Wait and see for options [59][60] Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The futures price of industrial silicon rose 1.13% to 8,470 yuan/ton. The spot price was mostly stable [61] - **Related Information**: A silicon - field standardization workshop will be held during the silicon industry conference [62] - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The demand from the silicone industry may weaken, while that from polysilicon may increase. Supply is becoming more abundant. The price may rebound [63] - **Strategy**: May rebound in the short term for single - side trading. Reverse arbitrage for 11 and 12 contracts. No options strategy [64] Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The futures price of polysilicon rose 3.97% to 51,875 yuan/ton. The spot price was stable [67] - **Related Information**: Domestic polysilicon prices increased [68] - **Comprehensive Analysis**: Although production may increase in September, sales restrictions and potential production cuts may drive the price up [68] - **Strategy**: Hold long positions and take partial profits near the previous high for single - side trading. Reverse arbitrage for 11 and 12 contracts. Sell out - of - the - money put options and hold call options [69] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The futures price of the 2511 contract fell 3,260 to 72,620 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased. The spot price decreased [70] - **Important Information**: Porsche's business adjustment, a new battery factory, and a lithium sulfide project [71][72] - **Logic Analysis**: Battery and cathode production is expected to increase in September, but supply may be affected. The price may continue to decline [73] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for stabilization for single - side trading. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [74][75]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [3] Core View of the Report - The lead market currently shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The TC price on the supply side is continuously declining, and there are more maintenance activities in smelters. On the consumption side, the inventory clearance of dealers is slow, the purchasing willingness is low, and the finished - product inventory of some enterprises has accumulated. With the upcoming implementation of the new national standard for electric bicycles and the Middle East tariff policy in September, the impact on consumption is uncertain. Therefore, the lead price is expected to remain in a volatile range of 16,300 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On September 1, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$41.07/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 16,725 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at -20.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead price remained unchanged at 16,750 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead price remained unchanged at 16,725 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium remained unchanged at 16,725 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at -25 yuan/ton, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,100 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells remained unchanged at 10,125 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,425 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On September 1, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,875 yuan/ton and closed at 16,855 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 39,854 lots, a decrease of 3,999 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 51,017 lots, an increase of 1,835 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest reaching 16,880 yuan/ton and the lowest reaching 16,780 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,875 yuan/ton and closed at 16,930 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton from the afternoon close. According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price remained flat compared to the previous trading day. In Henan, holders quoted prices at par with the SMM1 lead average price or at a discount of 110 - 100 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2510 contract; in Hunan, branded lead smelters quoted prices at a discount of 30 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead price, and some holders quoted prices at a discount of 160 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2510 contract; in Anhui and Jiangxi, holders quoted prices at a premium of 30 - 50 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead price. The lead price was consolidating, and downstream buyers made purchases on dips, resulting in relatively better spot transactions in some regions [2] Inventory - On September 1, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 67,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week. As of September 1, the LME lead inventory was 259,550 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - Given the current situation of weak supply and demand in the lead market and the uncertainty of consumption impact, the lead price is expected to remain volatile in the range of 16,300 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The current supply - demand situation of lead remains weak, with no obvious signs of peak - season demand. The concentrate market is tight even with smelter maintenance plans, and TC prices are falling. There are no significant fundamental factors to boost lead prices, but macro factors like rising interest - rate cut expectations support the non - ferrous metals sector, limiting the downside of lead prices. It is expected that the lead price will fluctuate between 16,300 yuan/ton and 17,050 yuan/ton [3] Group 3: Summary of Market News and Key Data Spot Market - On August 27, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 38.74 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,775 yuan/ton. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,800 yuan/ton, and the SMM Henan lead price also decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,775 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,775 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 25 yuan/ton. The prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,125 yuan/ton, 10,125 yuan/ton, and 10,450 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures Market - On August 27, 2025, the main Shanghai lead futures contract opened at 16,925 yuan/ton, closed at 16,890 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 49,426 lots, an increase of 4,245 lots from the previous day. The positions were 49,915 lots, a decrease of 931 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 16,960 yuan/ton and a low of 16,870 yuan/ton. In the night session, it opened at 16,885 yuan/ton and closed at 16,875 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the afternoon close [1] Inventory - On August 27, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 68,000 tons, a decrease of 16,000 tons from the previous week. As of August 27, the LME lead inventory was 267,475 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons from the previous trading day [2] Group 4: Summary of Sales Strategies - The option strategy is to sell a wide straddle [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the lead market is experiencing a stable yet weak demand-supply balance, with no significant positive factors to boost lead prices in the near term [1] - On August 27, 2025, LME lead spot premium was reported at -$38.74 per ton, while SMM 1 lead ingot spot price decreased to 16,775 RMB per ton, a drop of 25 RMB per ton from the previous change [1] - The Shanghai, Guangdong, Henan, and Tianjin regions showed corresponding changes in lead spot prices and premiums, while the price difference between lead scrap and refined lead remained unchanged [1] Group 2 - The futures market saw the main Shanghai lead contract open at 16,925 RMB per ton and close at 16,890 RMB per ton, reflecting a decrease of 40 RMB per ton, with a total trading volume of 49,426 lots and an open interest of 49,915 lots [1] - The night session opened at 16,885 RMB per ton and closed at 16,875 RMB per ton, down 15 RMB per ton from the afternoon close [1] - As of August 27, 2025, SMM lead ingot inventory totaled 68,000 tons, a decrease of 0.16 million tons compared to the same week last year, while LME lead inventory was reported at 267,475 tons, down by 1,500 tons [1] Group 3 - The strategy remains neutral, with the lead market expected to oscillate between 16,300 and 17,050 RMB per ton due to a lack of significant bullish factors in the fundamentals, despite macroeconomic factors favoring the non-ferrous sector [1] - The options strategy suggested is to sell wide spreads, with risk factors including a significant increase in domestic supply, lower-than-expected consumption, and tightening overseas liquidity [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - The supply and demand of lead are currently in a weak state, with no obvious signs of peak - season demand. The concentrate market remains tight even with smelter maintenance plans, and TC prices are continuously falling. There are no significant fundamental factors to boost lead prices, but macro - factors such as rising interest - rate cut expectations are favorable for the non - ferrous sector, limiting the downside of lead prices. It is expected that the lead price will fluctuate between 16,300 yuan/ton and 17,050 yuan/ton. The recommended option strategy is to sell a wide straddle [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On August 26, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 33.79 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,800 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at - 10.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead price increased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,825 yuan/ton, and the SMM Henan lead price also increased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,800 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium increased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,800 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 50 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,125 yuan/ton, 10,125 yuan/ton, and 10,450 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures Market - On August 26, 2025, the main Shanghai lead futures contract opened at 16,865 yuan/ton and closed at 16,930 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 45,181 lots, an increase of 3,979 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 50,846 lots, an increase of 22,871 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 16,970 yuan/ton and a low of 16,860 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract opened at 16,920 yuan/ton and closed at 16,890 yuan/ton, down 0.15% from the afternoon close [1] Regional Quotes - According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price rose by 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. In Henan, suppliers quoted at a discount of 20 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price or a discount of 120 - 80 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2510 lead contract. In Hunan, branded lead smelters quoted at a discount of 30 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead price, with one smelter quoting at a premium of 50 yuan/ton but no transactions. Some suppliers quoted at a discount of 180 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2510 lead contract and made transactions. In Guangdong, suppliers' premium quotes were further lowered to par with the SMM1 lead price. In Yunnan, non - branded lead smelters quoted at a discount of 200 - 170 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead price [2] Inventory - On August 26, 2025, the SMM lead ingot inventory was 6.8 million tons, a decrease of 0.16 million tons from the previous week. As of August 26, the LME lead inventory was 271,550 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons from the previous trading day [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The lead market currently shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, with no obvious manifestation of peak - season demand in the battery sector. Due to the relatively strong performance of the non - ferrous metals sector under the influence of macro factors, the lead price is expected to fluctuate between 16,350 and 17,050 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Spot Market - On August 20, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$41.80/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,600 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. Lead prices in different regions such as Shanghai, Guangdong, Henan, and Tianjin also showed varying degrees of decline. The lead scrap price difference remained unchanged at 25 yuan/ton, while waste battery prices decreased [1] 3.2 Futures Market - On August 20, 2025, the opening price of the main SHFE lead contract was 16,825 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 16,725 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume was 38,671 lots, an increase of 11,416 lots, and the position was 46,776 lots, a decrease of 1,336 lots. The night - session closing price increased by 0.33% compared to the afternoon closing price. After the decline in lead prices, downstream enterprises were hesitant to purchase due to fear of price drops, resulting in light overall spot trading [2] 3.3 Inventory - On August 20, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 71,000 tons, a decrease of 70 tons compared to the same period last week. As of August 20, the LME lead inventory was 281,100 tons, a decrease of 1,850 tons compared to the previous trading day [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall non - ferrous metals market is expected to show a strong and volatile trend. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and domestic policies have a positive impact on the market. Different metals have different trends and investment suggestions based on their supply - demand fundamentals and market news [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Main Variety Views Copper - The copper price is expected to maintain a volatile and strong trend. Short - term, the Shanghai copper is predicted to operate in the range of 78300 - 79500 yuan/ton. It is recommended to conduct range trading or stay on the sidelines [3]. Aluminum - The aluminum price is in an upward trend with shock adjustments. It is recommended to take the opportunity to place long orders for Shanghai aluminum and cast aluminum alloy, and stay on the sidelines for alumina [3]. Zinc - The zinc price is expected to oscillate within the range of 22000 - 23000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to conduct range trading [3]. Lead - The lead price is expected to maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern, and it is recommended to go long at low prices within the range of 16500 - 17200 yuan/ton [3]. Nickel - In the medium - to - long - term, the nickel industry has an oversupply situation. It is recommended to moderately hold short positions at high prices for nickel, with the main contract operating in the range of 120000 - 124000 yuan/ton. For stainless steel, range trading is recommended, with the main contract operating in the range of 12800 - 13200 yuan/ton [4]. Tin - The tin price is expected to oscillate within the range of 257,000 - 276,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to conduct range trading and continue to monitor supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [4]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Due to various market rumors, the risks in the industrial silicon and polysilicon markets are relatively high. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [4]. Carbonate Lithium - The carbonate lithium price is expected to continue its strong trend. It is recommended to trade cautiously and continue to monitor upstream enterprise production cuts and cathode material factory production schedules [4]. 3.2 Metal Inventory - As of August 15, 2025, the global inventory of non - ferrous metals showed different trends. For example, the global copper inventory increased by 1.27% week - on - week, the global aluminum inventory decreased by 1.38% week - on - week, and the global zinc inventory increased by 8.38% week - on - week [9]. 3.3 Macro Hotspots 3.3.1 Current Week's Macro Data - From August 11 - 17, a series of macro - economic data were released. For example, the eurozone's August ZEW economic sentiment index was 25.1, the US July core CPI year - on - year was 3.1%, and China's July M2 money supply year - on - year was 8.8% [13]. 3.3.2 Sino - US Trade and Financial Data - Since August 12, 2025, the 24% tariff has been suspended for 90 days again. In July, China's new social financing was 1.16 trillion yuan, and RMB loans decreased by 500 million yuan. The year - on - year growth rate of China's social consumer goods retail sales in July slowed down to 3.7%, and the real estate development investment from January to July decreased by 12% year - on - year [14][15][16][17]. 3.3.3 US Economic Data - In July, the US CPI year - on - year was 2.7%, lower than expected, while the core CPI growth rate reached a new high since February. The US July PPI year - on - year soared from 2.3% to 3.3%, and the month - on - month was 0.9%, a three - year high. The US July customs tariff revenue reached 28 billion US dollars, a record high, but the fiscal deficit still expanded [18][19][20]. 3.3.4 Next Week's Macro Data Calendar - From August 18 - 24, important macro - economic data such as the US July new housing starts month - on - month, China's August LPR, and the eurozone's July core harmonized CPI year - on - year final value are scheduled to be released [22]. 3.4 Market Trends and Key Data Tracking - For each metal, the report provides market trend charts (monthly, daily, quarterly lines) and key data tracking, including inventory, spot premium and discount, institutional positions, etc. For example, for copper, it shows the Shanghai copper main contract's monthly line, daily line, and LME copper's relevant data [26][27][28][37][39].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The domestic lead supply is under pressure, and the consumption of lead-acid batteries has not improved. The price is expected to fluctuate. The supply side is the core logic, with strong price support at the bottom. It is recommended to buy on dips, and there are still opportunities for cash-and-carry arbitrage in Shanghai lead [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Trading Aspect: Price, Spread, Inventory, Funds, Transaction, and Position - **Price and Spread**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract last week was 16,850 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.03%. The closing price of the night session yesterday was 16,780 yuan/ton, with a night session increase of -0.42%. The LME lead 3-month contract decreased by 1.70%. The LME lead (0 - 3) spot premium decreased by 11.95 US dollars/ton. The Shanghai 1 lead spot premium increased by 5 yuan/ton. The spread between regenerated lead and primary lead remained unchanged at 25 yuan/ton. The contango structure of Shanghai lead has narrowed [9]. - **Inventory**: From August 7th to August 15th, domestic lead inventory increased slightly from 71,100 tons to 71,700 tons. The inventory of Shanghai lead 09 contract is relatively high, and the spot discount has narrowed. The LME lead inventory decreased by 7,275 tons, and the注销仓单 ratio decreased by 3.79% [8][9]. - **Transaction and Position**: The trading volume of the Shanghai lead main contract last week was 32,601 lots, an increase of 1,593 lots compared to the previous week. The position was 51,207 lots, a decrease of 7,916 lots. The trading volume of the LME 3-month lead contract was 3,833 lots, a decrease of 1,522 lots. The position was 142,000 lots, an increase of 6,194 lots [9]. Lead Supply: Lead Concentrate, Waste Batteries, Primary Lead, and Regenerated Lead - **Lead Concentrate**: The weekly average of the 60% lead concentrate spot import TC was -80 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 15 US dollars/ton compared to the previous week. The profit of imported lead concentrate was -1,652 yuan/ton, an increase of 39 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained unchanged at 500 yuan/ton, and the profit was -2,500 yuan/ton [8][9]. - **Primary Lead**: The production of primary lead is under pressure. Although the smelting enterprises in Henan have resumed normal production after maintenance, the smelting maintenance in Liaoning, Hunan, Jiangxi and other places has affected part of the output. The weekly average of the primary lead smelting enterprise operating rate has decreased [8]. - **Regenerated Lead**: The regenerated lead has been in a loss state for a long time, with a loss of about 423 yuan/ton, and the loss has widened compared to the previous week. The regenerated lead enterprises in Guizhou, Jiangsu, Ningxia and other places have carried out maintenance, affecting part of the output. The operating rate of regenerated lead is at a historical low [5][8]. - **Import and Export**: The refined lead net import volume, lead ingot import volume, and lead ingot export volume are provided in the report, and the lead spot import profit and loss has changed [47]. Lead Demand: Lead-Acid Batteries and End-Users - **Lead-Acid Batteries**: The current consumption of lead-acid batteries is average, and the operating rate of lead-acid battery enterprises is stable. Large battery factories have started to reduce prices to pressure inventory on dealers. However, the market expects the consumption to pick up after September, and the operating rate of lead-acid battery enterprises may increase, and they will increase raw material inventory on dips [8]. - **End-Users**: The actual lead consumption, automobile production, and motorcycle production data are provided in the report, reflecting the end-user demand situation [52].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [3] - Option strategy: Sell wide straddle [3] Core View of the Report - The lead market shows relatively light trading and the lead price is oscillating weakly. The lead market is in a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the lead price is expected to remain in an oscillating range of 16,300 yuan/ton to 17,150 yuan/ton [1][3] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Spot Market**: On August 14, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$42.01/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,700 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The spot premiums and discounts in different regions also changed. The lead refined scrap price difference remained unchanged at 25 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste batteries remained stable [1] - **Futures Market**: On August 14, 2025, the opening price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,880 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 16,770 yuan/ton, a decrease of 160 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume was 45,616 lots, an increase of 16,679 lots compared to the previous trading day, and the position was 51,370 lots, an increase of 1,946 lots compared to the previous trading day. The night - session closing price decreased by 0.06% compared to the afternoon closing price [1] - **Inventory**: On August 14, 2025, the SMM lead ingot inventory was 72,000 tons, an increase of 1,700 tons compared to the previous week. As of August 14, the LME lead inventory was 261,675 tons, a decrease of 550 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] Strategy - The lead price may remain in an oscillating pattern, and the recommended option strategy is to sell wide straddles [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [4] - Option strategy: Sell wide straddle [4] Core View - The lead market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, failing to reflect the characteristics of the traditional peak demand season. Lead prices are expected to remain in a volatile range of 16,300 - 17,150 yuan/ton [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Market - On August 13, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$38.73/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at -35.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,800 yuan/ton, and the SMM Henan lead price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,775 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,200 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells increased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,175 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells increased by 50 yuan/ton to 10,525 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On August 13, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,940 yuan/ton, closed at 16,930 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 28,937 lots, down 1,049 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 49,424 lots, down 1,799 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point at 16,975 yuan/ton and the lowest at 16,865 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,880 yuan/ton and closed at 16,775 yuan/ton, down 0.89% from the afternoon close. The SMM1 lead price decreased by 25 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In the Henan region, holders offered at a premium of 0 - 20 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price or at a discount of 170 - 110 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2509 contract, with limited supply of low - priced goods. In the Hunan region, smelters offered at a discount of 20 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead price, and traders offered at a discount of 170 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2509 contract, but the trading was relatively light. In the Jiangxi region, holders offered at a premium of 50 - 70 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead price or at a discount of 120 - 100 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2509 contract. The lead futures weakened during the day, and some holders near the delivery date stopped offering and preferred to deliver to the warehouse. Downstream buyers made rigid purchases at low prices, and the overall market trading improved limitedly [2] Inventory - On August 13, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 70,000 tons, a decrease of 110 tons from the previous week. As of August 13, the LME lead inventory was 262,225 tons, a decrease of 25 tons from the previous trading day [3]