客户端 康龙化成（03759）午前股价上涨4.13%，现报25.20港元，成交额1.98亿港元。 康龙化成公布，该集团预期2025年实现营收约138.72亿-142.4亿元，同比增长13%-16%；归属于上市公 司股东的净利润约16.14亿-16.86亿元，同比下降6%-10%；扣非净利约15.07亿-15.62亿元，同比增长 36%-41%；经调整的非《国际财务报告准则》下归属于上市公司股东的净利润约17.675亿-18.48亿元， 同比增长10%-15%。 康龙化成（03759）午前股价上涨4.13%，现报25.20港元，成交额1.98亿港元。 康龙化成公布，该集团预期2025年实现营收约138.72亿-142.4亿元，同比增长13%-16%；归属于上市公 司股东的净利润约16.14亿-16.86亿元，同比下降6%-10%；扣非净利约15.07亿-15.62亿元，同比增长 36%-41%；经调整的非《国际财务报告准则》下归属于上市公司股东的净利润约17.675亿-18.48亿元， 同比增长10%-15%。 按业绩预告中位值测算，2025年第四季度，公司营业收入同比增长 14.79%、归属于上市公司股东的扣 ...

Core Insights - The PD-1/VEGF dual antibody sector is experiencing a divergence, with Yiming Oncology's PD-L1/VEGF dual antibody facing a setback due to the return of collaboration by Axion, while Rongchang Biopharma secured a $5.6 billion licensing deal with AbbVie, highlighting the increasing differentiation within the dual antibody space and outlining the core investment theme for 2026—certainty [2][3] Group 1: Investment Trends - The 2025 trend of "BD is king" in China's pharmaceutical investment market has shifted, with a focus on the feasibility of BD transactions rather than blind enthusiasm for total deal amounts [2][4] - The market is moving away from generalized sector speculation towards embracing "certainty" in value, which encompasses three core anchors: expectation certainty, product certainty, and performance certainty [3] Group 2: Expectation Certainty - Expectation certainty emphasizes the need to rationally assess the feasibility of BD transactions rather than blindly pursuing total deal amounts, as the probability of new drugs progressing from early clinical stages to market approval is only 7.9% [4][5] - In the competitive PD-1/VEGF dual antibody sector, companies like Kangfang Biopharma, Sanofi, and Rongchang Biopharma have secured overseas licensing deals worth $5 billion, $6.05 billion, and $5.6 billion respectively, but the overlapping targets and indications mean not all players can realize their expected value [4][5] Group 3: Product Certainty - Product certainty focuses on the ability of a drug to achieve substantial sales post-launch, with products that have clear sales growth logic deserving higher valuation premiums [6] - WanTai Biopharma's nine-valent HPV vaccine, priced at 499 yuan per dose (40% of imported vaccines), is expected to penetrate lower-tier markets and drive sales growth starting in 2026 [6] - In contrast, Innovent Biologics' Ma Shidu peptide faces challenges in commercial viability due to increased competition and pricing pressures, leading to a significant reduction in its sales peak expectations [6] Group 4: Performance Certainty - Performance certainty involves identifying companies and sectors with clear growth or recovery expectations, as the essence of investment is capturing expectation differences [7][8] - WuXi AppTec's profit forecast of 14.957 billion yuan for 2025, a 41.33% increase year-on-year, exemplifies performance certainty and reflects the company's foundational role in the global pharmaceutical supply chain [8] - The vaccine sector, having reached a bottom after previous adjustments, shows potential for growth as domestic companies expand into underdeveloped markets, with increasing performance certainty and investment opportunities [8] Conclusion - The transition from "selling BD expectations" to "realizing certainty" marks a significant shift in pharmaceutical investment strategies for 2026 [9]

Group 1: AI in Pharmaceuticals - The application of artificial intelligence (AI) in the pharmaceutical sector has progressed beyond early trials to a systematic deployment phase aimed at creating core value [1] - The focus of competition is shifting from mere technical algorithms to how companies can restructure their data, processes, and organizational systems around key R&D and commercialization aspects [1] - Leading institutions are developing specialized AI systems embedded with compliance frameworks to optimize clinical trial management, enhance laboratory efficiency, and improve the timeliness of business decisions [1] Group 2: Small Nucleic Acid Drugs - The small nucleic acid drug industry is expanding its value narrative from breakthroughs in cardiovascular diseases to new areas such as kidney diseases, which is a key growth story for the sector [2] - The core driver of this trend is the anticipated readout of several key clinical data points in 2026, with therapies targeting important pathway targets showing significant potential to reduce proteinuria and stabilize kidney function [2] - The active clinical advancements by international leading companies provide strong concept validation for the entire sector, expected to drive a new wave of R&D focus and commercial collaborations [2] Group 3: JPMorgan Healthcare Conference - The JPMorgan Healthcare Conference serves as a strategic barometer for observing annual trends, gathering hundreds of global biopharmaceutical companies and investment institutions [3] - The participation and visibility of Chinese companies have significantly increased, showcasing China's advancing position in global pharmaceutical innovation [3] - Key topics at the conference revolve around capital allocation and strategic partnerships, with Chinese assets that possess "innovation upgrades" and "cost advantages" attracting considerable attention [3] Group 4: Market Outlook - The outlook for the innovative drug sector remains strong, with significant capital inflow driven by factors such as robust global competitiveness of Chinese innovations and ongoing domestic policy support for innovative drugs and commercial insurance [3] - The commercial profitability of leading biotech companies is improving, and the sector is characterized by low valuation advantages [3] - The CXO sector is expected to have a positive outlook leading up to 2026, while the medical device sector may see a recovery in the second half of the year, with bright spots in specific segments of medical services [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating for the pharmaceutical sector, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market [2][4]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical sector has shown strong performance, with the SW Pharmaceutical Biotechnology Index rising by 7.81% in the week of January 5-11, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 Index, which increased by 2.79% [2]. - Key drivers of this growth include advancements in brain-computer interfaces, small nucleic acids, and AI healthcare technologies [2]. - The report emphasizes the potential of innovation in overseas markets and hard technology, particularly in AI healthcare and brain-computer interfaces, as major growth areas for the pharmaceutical industry in 2026 [2]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The pharmaceutical sector is expected to continue its positive trajectory into 2026, driven by innovation and technological advancements [1]. - The report highlights the importance of the "AI + Health" investment trend, particularly with the launch of the Ant Group's "Afu" app, which focuses on health management [1][2]. Market Performance - The report notes that various sub-sectors, including hospitals, CXO, and medical devices, have experienced significant gains, with increases of 13.92%, 11.15%, and 10.81% respectively [2]. - The Hong Kong market has also seen a rebound in innovative drugs, with the Hang Seng Biotechnology Index rising by 11.06% [2]. Future Outlook - The report identifies three main sources of growth for the pharmaceutical industry: innovation in overseas markets, structural growth under the medical insurance payment framework, and natural growth from government finance and personal demand [2]. - Investment opportunities are expected to arise from the expansion of innovative drugs, hard technology, and the ongoing development of AI healthcare applications [2].

Core Viewpoint - The commercial aerospace sector, represented by low-orbit satellites, experienced a significant pullback, while the Hong Kong medical sector showed strong gains, indicating a potential shift in market momentum [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong medical ETF, Huabao (159137), surged over 5%, leading the market in real-time ETF gains, with an intraday increase of over 8% [1] - Since 2026, the Hong Kong medical theme index has risen over 20%, highlighting the recent popularity of "Hong Kong medical" stocks [1] - In 2025, the annual increase of the Hong Kong medical theme index reached 48.20% [1] Group 2: Historical Context - The Hong Kong medical sector has undergone four years of adjustment, with the theme index currently at a historically low point in terms of valuation [1] - As of the end of 2025, the index level has retreated over 65% from its historical peak in 2021, with a TTM price-to-earnings ratio of 29.43, which is below 65% of the historical range since the base date [1] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The Hong Kong medical ETF, Huabao (159137), tracks the CSI Hong Kong medical theme index, covering four major sectors: CXO, medical commerce and services, medical devices, and biopharmaceuticals [1] - Over 80% of the ETF's weight is concentrated in leading companies within CXO, internet healthcare, and high-end medical devices, with over 85% of the constituents being "Hong Kong exclusive" stocks, including unique offerings like JD Health and Alibaba Health [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a strong recovery in the innovative drug sector, with significant stock price increases and positive market sentiment returning to the pharmaceutical industry [1][2] - The Hong Kong pharmaceutical ETF (159718.SZ) has risen by 2.77%, marking a seven-day consecutive increase, driven by strong performances from constituent stocks such as Rongchang Biologics, which rose by 10.56%, and WuXi AppTec, which increased by 7.40% [1] - Rongchang Biologics has entered a substantial licensing agreement with AbbVie for a core dual-antibody product, with an upfront payment of $650 million and potential milestone payments totaling up to $4.95 billion, exceeding expectations [1] Group 2 - WuXi AppTec has announced a revenue forecast for 2025 of 45.456 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.84%, and an adjusted net profit of 14.957 billion yuan, reflecting a 41.33% increase, indicating accelerated performance [1] - Recent market trends show a recovery in the pharmaceutical sector, with emerging hotspots in brain-computer interfaces, small nucleic acid drugs, and AI healthcare, suggesting promising investment opportunities in the industry [1][2] - The innovative drug sector is expected to remain the most important investment theme in the pharmaceutical industry through 2026, with improving market conditions and catalysts expected to drive stock prices [2]

Core Viewpoint - WuXi AppTec (603259.SH) has released an earnings forecast for 2025 that exceeds its previously raised guidance, indicating strong revenue and net profit growth driven by its integrated CRDMO model and non-recurring gains from asset disposals [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company expects to achieve a total revenue of 45.456 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.84%, with core business revenue growing approximately 21.40% [1] - Adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 14.957 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 41.33%, while net profit attributable to the company’s shareholders is expected to reach 19.151 billion yuan, marking a significant increase of approximately 102.65% [1] - The company has raised its annual revenue guidance for the second time within a year, adjusting the expected range from 42.5-43.5 billion yuan to 43.5-44 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Business Segments - The TIDES business (oligonucleotides and peptide drugs) has shown remarkable performance, with revenue reaching 7.84 billion yuan in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 121.1%, setting historical highs for both the first three quarters and the third quarter [2] - Non-recurring gains from asset disposals have significantly contributed to the earnings exceeding expectations, with net gains from the sale of certain equity stakes totaling 5.595 billion yuan, accounting for 37.41% of the expected annual net profit [2] Group 3: Strategic Focus - The company is focusing on its core CRDMO areas by divesting from clinical research services, which has resulted in a gain of 1.434 billion yuan from the sale of related businesses [2] - WuXi AppTec is expanding its global footprint with ongoing construction of overseas bases in Singapore and Delaware, aiming to mitigate geopolitical risks and better meet customer demands [3] - Revenue from U.S. clients has reached 22.15 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 31.9% and increasing its share of total revenue to 67%, becoming a key growth driver [3]

Core Viewpoint - The newly launched Hong Kong Stock Connect Medical ETF, Huabao (159137), is expected to perform actively due to the rising interest in the medical sector and favorable market conditions, coinciding with the recent recovery of the Hong Kong and A-share medical sectors at the beginning of 2026 [1][14]. Group 1: ETF Launch and Market Context - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Medical ETF Huabao (159137) was established on December 31, 2025, and began trading on January 12, 2026 [1][15]. - The Shanghai Composite Index has recently shown a rare "sixteen consecutive days of gains," surpassing the 4100-point mark, indicating high investor enthusiasm [1][14]. - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Medical Theme Index has increased by 14.25% from January 1 to January 9, 2026, and had an annual increase of 48.20% in 2025, reflecting a significant recovery in the medical sector [1][15]. Group 2: ETF Composition and Investment Focus - The ETF tracks the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Medical Theme Index, covering four major areas: CXO, medical business and services, medical devices, and biopharmaceuticals, with over 80% of its weight concentrated in leading companies in CXO, internet healthcare, and high-end medical devices [2][15]. - More than 85% of the ETF's components are "Hong Kong exclusive" stocks, including unique offerings like JD Health and Alibaba Health, which provide investors with significant opportunities in the Hong Kong medical sector [2][15]. Group 3: Market Potential and Valuation - The Hong Kong medical sector is characterized as a "golden track" with substantial market potential, driven by an aging population and increasing healthcare demand, supported by a growing GDP per capita [4][19]. - The CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Medical Theme Index is currently at a historical low, with a drop of over 65% from its peak in 2021, and a price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) of 29.43, which is below 65% of its historical range [6][19]. - The index's configuration offers a compelling cost-performance ratio, making the ETF a noteworthy investment tool for investors [6][19].

Core Insights - The report continues to recommend innovative drugs and the related industry chain, highlighting the strong growth potential in the pharmaceutical sector through 2026 [1][4]. Investment Strategy - The investment strategy emphasizes the focus on the CXO sector, particularly in chemical CDMO, where Chinese companies hold significant advantages in talent, chemical capabilities, compliance production, and intellectual property protection [4]. - The report suggests that the upcoming JPM conference will provide updates on the operational progress of Chinese innovative drug companies, which have shown a long-term positive development trend [4]. - The recommended investment portfolio includes A-shares such as Mindray Medical, WuXi AppTec, and Aier Eye Hospital, as well as H-shares like Kangfang Biologics and WuXi Biologics [4][5]. Industry Performance - The pharmaceutical industry experienced a decline of 4.10% in December, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 6.38% [8]. - The report notes that the chemical pharmaceutical sector saw the largest declines among sub-sectors, with a drop of 5.80% [12]. Market Data - For the period from January to November 2025, the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry's total revenue was 220.65 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 2.0% [7]. - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 45.61 trillion yuan, with retail sales of Western and Chinese medicines amounting to 660.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.8% [7]. Regulatory Environment - The report discusses the impact of the U.S. "Biological Safety Act," which is expected to have a limited short-term effect on Chinese CXO companies, while emphasizing the need to monitor the long-term implications of international competition and regulatory changes [22]. Recent Drug Approvals - In December 2025, a total of 16 innovative drugs or biosimilars were approved for market entry, including six domestic and ten imported products [24][25].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Market Perform" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to perform within ±10% of the market index over the next six months [26][32]. Core Insights - The SW pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry outperformed the CSI 300 index, rising by 3.61% from December 26, 2025, to January 8, 2026, exceeding the CSI 300 index by approximately 1.56 percentage points [12]. - Most sub-sectors within the industry recorded positive returns during the same period, with the hospital and medical R&D outsourcing sectors leading with increases of 10.62% and 7.39%, respectively [13]. - Approximately 82% of stocks in the industry achieved positive returns, with notable performers including Xiangyu Medical, which saw a weekly increase of 57.50% [14][17]. - The overall industry valuation has risen, with the SW pharmaceutical and biotechnology index's PE (TTM) at approximately 52.75 times, which is 3.78 times higher than the CSI 300 index [18][26]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The SW pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry outperformed the CSI 300 index, with a rise of 3.61% from December 26, 2025, to January 8, 2026 [12]. - Most sub-sectors recorded positive returns, particularly hospitals and medical R&D outsourcing, which increased by 10.62% and 7.39%, respectively [13]. - About 82% of stocks in the industry had positive returns, with significant gains from several companies [14]. 2. Industry News - The report highlights the acceleration of volume-based procurement in 2026, with various local and national initiatives underway to streamline drug procurement processes [24]. - A new batch of encouraged generic drugs has been announced, focusing on optimizing the drug supply system and enhancing the availability of essential medications [23]. 3. Company Announcements - Jiangsu Yahui Pharmaceutical announced the completion of the first patient enrollment in a Phase I clinical trial for its drug APL-2401, targeting advanced solid tumors [25]. 4. Industry Outlook - The report suggests a focus on investment opportunities in the brain-computer interface sector, particularly following announcements from Neuralink regarding large-scale production plans [26]. - Recommended stocks for attention include leading companies in medical devices, pharmaceutical retail, aesthetic medicine, and innovative drugs, among others [28][29].