天治趋势精选混合（350007）成立日期2009年7月15日，最新规模929.74万。今年以来收益56.18%，同 类排名637/8170；近一年收益53.08%，同类排名678/8139；成立以来收益33.33%。 12月22日，新易盛涨5.35%，截至发稿，报457.55元/股，成交39.95亿元，换手率1.00%，总市值4547.92 亿元。 资料显示，成都新易盛通信技术股份有限公司位于四川省成都市双流区黄甲街道物联大道510号，成立 日期2008年4月15日，上市日期2016年3月3日，公司主营业务涉及光模块的研发、生产和销售。主营业 务收入构成为：25G以上98.86%，25G以下0.87%，其他0.26%，PON0.00%。 从基金十大重仓股角度 数据显示，天治基金旗下1只基金重仓新易盛。天治趋势精选混合（350007）三季度增持300股，持有股 数1460股，占基金净值比例为5.74%，位居第一大重仓股。根据测算，今日浮盈赚取约3.39万元。 天治趋势精选混合（350007）基金经理为梁莉。 截至发稿，梁莉累计任职时间4年253天，现任基金资产总规模6431.4万元，任职期间最佳基金回报 18. ...

AI 热度不减，存储及光通信需求两旺 20251221 摘要 存储行业预计在 2026 年仍处于超级周期，DRAM 和 NAND 业务强劲增 长，美光科技一季度营收同比增长 57%，non-GAAP 毛利率达 57%， 净利润同比增三倍以上，预计资本支出将增至 200 亿美元，用于 HBM 及 E8 纳米产能扩张。 全球 NAND 市场自 2025 年初需求活跃，价格已翻倍以上上涨，由 AI 驱动的结构性需求爆发是主要因素，AI 服务器出货量增加及企业级固态 硬盘需求倍增，导致 9 纳米产品结构性短缺并大幅涨价。 美光科技预计 2028 年全球 HBM 市场规模将达 1,000 亿美元，未来三 年复合年增长率达 40%，预计下一季度收入为 187 亿美元，环比增长 38%，毛利率预期为 68%，海外原厂有望迎来周期股估值重构。 利基型存储如 DDR4 DRAM 和 SLC NAND 受益于网通设备需求增加及 大厂退出，价格呈现双位数以上环比上涨趋势，光通信板块也因 AI 影响 而火热，部分料号的光纤光缆价格出现一定幅度上涨。 AI 训练和推理场景对存储设备提出超大容量、低成本、高随机写入、高 耐久性及极快接口 ...

Core Viewpoint - C Youxun (688807) experienced a significant first-day increase of 346.57%, with a turnover rate of 78.74% and a transaction volume of 2.854 billion yuan [2]. Group 1: Company Overview - C Youxun is recognized as a "national manufacturing single champion enterprise" in the domestic optical communication sector, focusing on the research, design, and sales of optical communication front-end transceiver chips [2]. - The optical communication chips serve as the "nerve center" of optical communication optoelectronic systems, playing a crucial role in amplifying, driving, retiming, and processing complex digital signals, which directly impacts the performance and reliability of the entire optical communication system [2]. Group 2: Market Performance - On its first trading day, C Youxun had a financing buy-in amount of 549 million yuan, accounting for 19.23% of the total trading volume, with a latest financing balance of 521 million yuan, representing 15.03% of the circulating market value [2]. - The stock saw a net inflow of 1.359 billion yuan from major funds, with a net inflow of 1.361 billion yuan from large orders, while small orders experienced a net outflow of 144.22 thousand yuan [2].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on the company due to its benefits from the AI data center construction trend [2]. Core Insights - The company specializes in passive optical devices, which are integrated into the global data center supply chain, with long-term growth driven by AI demand [1]. - The company has a strong market position in high-density and high-speed passive optical products, with over 80% of its revenue coming from data centers, including AI data centers [2]. - The financial performance is robust, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 128.5% for net profit from 2021 to 2024 [2]. Summary by Sections Initial Offering - The company plans to issue 10.25 million shares at a price of 31.59 CNY per share, with an earnings per share (EPS) ratio of 14.57X [5][6]. - The total investment for fundraising projects is expected to reach 676 million CNY, aimed at expanding production capacity for passive optical fiber products and related devices [7][9]. Company Overview - The company is a leading manufacturer of precision optical connectors, with a focus on passive optical devices for cloud providers and AI clusters [10]. - It has established stable relationships with major clients, including AFL and Coherent, and its products are used by industry giants like AT&T, Google, and Tencent [29][30]. Financial Performance - The company’s revenue is projected to reach 1.32 billion CNY in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 114.4% [32]. - The net profit for 2024 is expected to be 147.58 million CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 128.7% [33]. Industry Insights - The global data center capital expenditure is expected to reach 455 billion USD in 2024, significantly driving the demand for optical modules [40]. - The optical communication market in China is projected to grow to 147.3 billion CNY by 2024, with a CAGR of 5.18% from 2021 to 2024 [41][43]. - The demand for optical modules, particularly in AI applications, is forecasted to grow substantially, with sales expected to increase by 146% in 2024 [47].

Group 1 - Major domestic companies are increasingly holding global conferences in Wuhan's Optics Valley, with notable events including Xiaomi's Global Core Supplier Conference and China Information Communication's first Partner Conference [3][4] - These conferences are characterized as "highest specification" events, emphasizing their significance in the respective industries, with Xiaomi's event being described as its most influential annual industry cooperation event [4][5] - The participation of high-profile executives from major companies, such as Xiaomi's CEO Lei Jun and Lenovo's CEO Yang Yuanqing, highlights the importance of these gatherings for networking and collaboration [5] Group 2 - The choice of Optics Valley as a venue is strategic, as several companies, including China Information Communication and Changjiang Storage, have their headquarters there, while others like Xiaomi and Lenovo have significant investments in the area [6][7] - Xiaomi's smart home appliance factory in Optics Valley, with a planned investment of over 2.5 billion yuan, is a key example of the region's industrial capabilities, aiming for an annual output value of 14 billion yuan [6] - The conferences serve as platforms for companies to identify gaps in their operations and enhance industry collaboration, with local government agencies aiming to capture business development needs through these events [8][9] Group 3 - The conferences have led to the establishment of over 40 companies in the compound semiconductor sector, driven by the Nine Peaks Mountain Laboratory's focus on industrial research [8] - Lenovo's initiatives have resulted in numerous industry chain partners establishing operations in Optics Valley, contributing to the growth of the local ecosystem [9] - The region has seen significant project signings, with over 130 projects and a total investment of 140 billion yuan expected this year, primarily through industry chain-driven initiatives [9]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotai Junan Securities indicates a significant decline in average daily trading volume and turnover rate, with a shift in market focus towards domestic consumption and technology themes, while external factors like interest rate changes are stabilizing market risk appetite [1] Group 1: AI Applications - The domestic computing architecture capabilities have significantly improved, with product iterations accelerating, reinforcing the investment narrative in AI [2] - Notable advancements include the release of the "Huagang" GPU architecture by Moore Threads, which boasts a 50% increase in computing density and a tenfold improvement in energy efficiency [2] - Ant Group's AI health application "Antifufu" has reached 15 million monthly active users, leading the health management AI application sector [2] Group 2: Commercial Aerospace - The upcoming launch of the Long March 12A rocket and the completion of ground verification for the Tianlong 3 rocket highlight advancements in China's commercial aerospace sector [3] - The National Space Administration has issued a plan to support the high-quality and safe development of commercial aerospace from 2025 to 2027, focusing on new technologies and applications [3] - It is projected that China's satellite launch demand will increase more than tenfold by 2030 compared to 2024 [3] Group 3: Hainan Free Trade Zone - The official launch of the full island closure in Hainan has begun, with Siemens Energy establishing a significant foreign investment project [4] - On the first day of customs supervision, zero-tariff imports amounted to 360 million yuan, primarily for crude oil and aviation equipment [4] - The establishment of Siemens Energy (Hainan) Co., Ltd. marks a significant step in the development of Hainan's free trade port [4] Group 4: Domestic Consumption - The central government has initiated actions to boost consumption, including plans to increase income for urban and rural residents [5] - New consumption scenarios are emerging, such as sports events and ice tourism, with significant economic impacts observed in regions like Jiangsu and Liaoning [5] - The consumption scale for ice sports is expected to exceed 187.5 billion yuan in the 2024-2025 season, reflecting a 25% year-on-year growth [5]

Group 1 - China Shenhua announced a merger and acquisition plan exceeding 130 billion yuan, intending to purchase stakes in China Energy Group and Guoyuan Power, along with other equity acquisitions [2][7] - The A-share market is seeing active mergers and acquisitions, with 32 listed companies disclosing restructuring progress this week [2][7] - Former Chongqing Mayor Huang Qifan predicts that the RMB exchange rate against the USD may rise to around 6:1 in the next decade, which could enhance trade balance and economic development [2][7] Group 2 - CITIC Securities highlights increasing factors for RMB appreciation, suggesting investors adapt their asset allocation accordingly, with about 19% of industries potentially benefiting from improved profit margins due to currency appreciation [2][7] - Shanxi Province has lifted the ban on fireworks, transitioning from a complete ban to scientific restrictions, which may stimulate industry growth and related consumption [3][8] - Seven chief strategists from major brokerages forecast a likely upward trend for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks in 2026, driven by technology and overseas expansion [3][8] Group 3 - The lithium battery industry is experiencing positive developments, with Shengxin Lithium Energy signing a framework agreement for lithium salt product supply worth over 20 billion yuan from 2026 to 2030 [3][8] - Tianqi Lithium's third-phase chemical-grade lithium concentrate expansion project is set to reach an annual capacity of 2.14 million tons, ensuring raw material supply [3][8] - Three new stocks will be available for subscription next week, covering tourism, new materials, and optical communication sectors [3][8] Group 4 - Several central banks, including those of Russia, the UK, Mexico, and Chile, have announced interest rate cuts, leading to a rise in gold and silver prices, with silver reaching a historic high of over 67 USD per ounce [4][9][10] - The first L3-level autonomous driving special license plate has been issued to Changan Automobile, marking a shift from technology validation to mass production application [4][10]

证券研究报告 晨会 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 21 日 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 投资要点： 资料来源：聚源，华源证券研究所，截至2025年12月19日 华源晨会精粹 20251221 新消费 密集政策提振消费，海南自由贸易港封关运作正式启动——新消费行业周 报：扩大内需是战略之举，消费有关政策频出：中央经济工作会议提出八项明年经 济工作的重点任务，其中第一项重点任务为坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场。12 月 15 日，《求是》杂志发表文章《扩大内需是战略之举》，文章强调要"牢牢把握 扩大内需这一战略基点"，阐明了扩大内需对发展全局的基础支撑作用。商务部等 9 部门发布《关于扩大服务消费的若干政策措施》，提出五方面 19 条举措。商务部、 中国人民银行、金融监管总局联合发布《关于加强商务和金融协同，更大力度提振 消费的通知》。海南自由贸易港全岛封关运作正式启动，中免发布多重礼遇。根据 中免海南战报，12 月 18 日封关首日中免海南销售额超 2.5 亿元，同比增长 90%。 2025 年 1-11 月美容护肤品牌格局：TOP5 品牌主要由珀莱雅、欧莱雅、韩束、兰 蔻、 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" with a target price for key stocks: 186.1 CNY for Zhongji Xuchuang and 137.63 CNY for Tianfu Communication [6]. Core Insights - The optical module industry is experiencing a new growth cycle driven by AI demand and product high-endization, with significant opportunities across the entire supply chain [1]. - The global cloud market is expected to continue its upward trend in capital expenditure, driven by AI cluster expansion and the rollout of new generation computing platforms [2]. - The transition to 1.6T optical modules is identified as a key path for data centers to overcome system bottlenecks and achieve cost reduction and efficiency improvement [3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on leading companies in the high-speed optical module sector that have established strong market positions and possess deep technological expertise [4]. Summary by Sections AI Demand and Product High-endization - Optical modules are the cornerstone components for building global high-speed information networks, facilitating the conversion of electrical signals to optical signals for efficient data transmission [14]. - The optical module supply chain presents opportunities and challenges for domestic substitution, with a significant portion of value concentrated in upstream core devices and midstream packaging [25]. Market Trends and Projections - The optical module market is expected to see significant growth driven by AI demand, with a dual-path evolution characterized by scale-out and scale-up strategies [2]. - The report forecasts that the global optical module market will experience a structural expansion in demand due to AI applications and high-end product releases [2]. High-endization and Value Enhancement - The transition to 1.6T optical modules is crucial for supporting large-scale AI clusters, with advantages such as doubled bandwidth and reduced total cost of ownership (TCO) [3]. - The report highlights that the introduction of 1.6T products will significantly enhance the average selling price (ASP) and overall value of the optical module industry [3]. Key Companies and Competitive Landscape - Leading companies such as Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Technology, and Tianfu Communication are positioned to benefit from the growing demand for high-speed optical modules [10]. - The report notes that the competitive landscape is shifting towards companies that can integrate technology leadership with mass delivery capabilities [4].

Core Viewpoint - Short-term fluctuations in A-shares are primarily influenced by external factors such as concerns over the AI bubble in the US stock market and interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, but A-shares are expected to resonate upward with global markets as US AI core company stock prices stabilize and the impact of the Bank of Japan's rate hike is limited [1] Industry Focus - Key industry focus areas include non-ferrous metals (silver, copper, tin, tungsten), high dividend stocks in Hong Kong, non-bank financials, AI (liquid cooling, optical communication), new energy (energy storage, solid-state batteries), innovative pharmaceuticals, and banking [1] Thematic Focus - Thematic investment areas to pay attention to are Hainan (duty-free), nuclear power, and ice and snow tourism [1]