Core Viewpoint - The U.S. federal government has officially shut down due to a failure to reach an agreement on a temporary funding bill, marking the first government shutdown in nearly seven years, which has led to heightened vigilance in global financial markets [1][3] Direct Impact - The most immediate effect of the government shutdown on the cryptocurrency industry is the "freezing" of regulatory processes, as key regulatory bodies like the SEC and CFTC will have most of their employees on leave, halting ongoing rule-making efforts [6] - The approval process for various cryptocurrency spot ETFs, such as the Litecoin (LTC) spot ETF from Canary Capital, is likely to be delayed due to the SEC's approval team being forced to take leave, which could undermine market confidence [7] - Important legislative work aimed at providing a clear regulatory framework for digital assets, such as the CLARITY Act, will also be postponed, making it harder for the industry to gain regulatory certainty [7] Indirect Impact - The government shutdown will create significant uncertainty for the cryptocurrency market through macroeconomic channels, as the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will suspend the release of all economic data during the shutdown, affecting key reports like the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) [10] - The absence of these critical economic indicators will complicate the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions, potentially increasing market volatility and eroding investor confidence [10] - A prolonged political stalemate could severely undermine global investor confidence in the U.S. economy and dollar assets, given the deep political polarization and rising fiscal deficits [10] Potential Storm - Historical performance of Bitcoin during government shutdowns shows varied reactions based on market cycles, with the current environment resembling the bullish demand phase of 2013 rather than the bearish phase of 2018 [11][12] - The duration of the shutdown will be a key variable in determining its ultimate impact on the cryptocurrency market, with a quick resolution potentially allowing the market to weather the "political noise" [12][13]

Market Overview - The crypto market saw a boost with Bitcoin (BTC) rising by 2.9% and Ether (ETH) by 3.1%, while altcoins experienced double-digit gains, indicating a potential "altcoin season" [1] - ZEC reached its highest level since May 2022, and several DeFi tokens also showed upward movement [1] - The market uptick coincided with a U.S. government shutdown, which has led to record high gold prices and a sell-off in the dollar [2] Derivatives Positioning - The BTC futures market shows a bullish bias with open interest at approximately $31.69 billion, indicating strong trader engagement, particularly on Binance with $13.19 billion [3] - The 3-month annualized basis remains between 6% and 7%, suggesting robust yield from basis trades [3] - The BTC options market presents a mixed sentiment; while the 25 Delta Skew for short-term options is low, indicating hedging against downside risk, the Put/Call Volume shows 63.54% of total volume in calls, reflecting bullish speculation [3] - Positive funding rates are observed across major exchanges, with Deribit seeing an annualized funding rate of 17%, indicating strong demand for leveraged long positions [3] - Coinglass data reports $644 million in liquidations over 24 hours, with a split of 38% longs and 62% shorts, highlighting significant market activity [3]

"加密货币将颠覆传统金融体系！"这是赵长鹏在2021年巅峰时，站在币安落地窗前喊出的豪言。那时他 刚以941亿美元身家挤入世界十大富豪，是华人眼里的"币圈教父"，可谁能想到，两年后美国监管的"组 合拳"，让他成了"提款机"，交531亿罚款，护照被收还坐了四个月牢。 12岁那年赵长鹏跟着当哥伦比亚大学学者的父亲，从连云港搬到加拿大。家里穷，他早早就去麦当劳打 小时工，深夜在加油站值夜班，啃着编程书度过无数个夜晚。后来考进麦吉尔大学，学计算机还修了经 济学，毕业没去硅谷，反倒去东京证券交易所写交易系统，摸透了金融市场"快0.01秒就能赚更多"的门 道。 2013年他咬咬牙卖掉上海的房子，110万美元全仓买比特币，家人担心，朋友说他疯了，妻子跟他冷 战，可他认定这是机会。半年后比特币暴涨，他赚了人生第一桶金。2017年，他拉上何一创办币安，只 用四年就做成全球最大加密交易所，2021年财富达941亿美元，成了华人首富。 赵长鹏的父亲是哥伦比亚大学经济学学者，研究"金融市场效率"，从小就跟他讲"速度就是金钱"，这也 是他后来做币安时，特别重视交易系统速度的原因。12岁到加拿大，他因英语不好被同学欺负，所以更 努力学编 ...

Core Insights - The global stablecoin market is experiencing a dichotomy, with regulatory crackdowns in China contrasting with aggressive developments in international markets, such as Tether's $500 billion valuation financing and the European banks' initiative to develop a euro stablecoin [1][2] - The rise of stablecoins reflects a significant shift in global financial power dynamics and capital flows, posing challenges to national monetary sovereignty, particularly for countries feeling the pressure from the dominance of the US dollar [2][10] Regulatory Environment - Chinese authorities are tightening regulations on crypto assets, requiring local institutions to scale back their operations in Hong Kong, including activities related to stablecoins [1][2] - Hong Kong is positioning itself as a compliance testing ground for stablecoins, with stringent regulations expected to be implemented, including a high entry barrier and full reserve requirements [6][11] Market Dynamics - The total supply of stablecoins has surged from $5 billion in 2019 to $250 billion in 2024, indicating a 45-fold increase, which raises concerns about financial stability and regulatory oversight [5][12] - Major stablecoins like USDT and USDC dominate the market, with 99% of stablecoins pegged to the US dollar, highlighting the dollar's central role in the global financial system [7][8] Financial Innovation and Risks - Stablecoins aim to bridge the gap between traditional finance and the crypto market, but they carry systemic risks, as evidenced by the collapse of TerraUSD in 2022, which wiped out $40 billion in market value [3][5] - The lack of transparency and regulatory oversight in the stablecoin market raises concerns about potential misuse for illegal activities, such as money laundering [4][10] Strategic Implications - The US is leveraging stablecoins to reinforce its monetary dominance, with the recent GENIUS Act establishing a regulatory framework that ties stablecoins to US Treasury securities, effectively creating a mechanism for debt absorption [8][10] - The emergence of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) is seen as a response to the challenges posed by private stablecoins, aiming to maintain monetary sovereignty and financial stability [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - Anton Kobyakov, a senior economic advisor to Russian President Putin, warned at the Eastern Economic Forum that the U.S. is planning a large-scale financial risk transfer, potentially shifting $37 trillion in national debt risk to the global economy through cryptocurrencies and stablecoins [1][2]. Group 1: U.S. National Debt and Economic Strategy - As of September 2025, the total U.S. federal debt has surpassed $37 trillion, equating to over $100,000 per citizen and $300,000 per taxpayer [2]. - The interest payments on U.S. national debt exceed $1 trillion annually, nearing the country's military spending [2]. - The U.S. has issued $4 trillion in new debt over the past four years, indicating a deepening structural deficit [2]. Group 2: Stablecoins and Financial Mechanisms - Stablecoins, pegged to the U.S. dollar, require backing by cash or short-term U.S. Treasury bonds, creating a closed funding loop that benefits U.S. debt financing [3]. - The U.S. Treasury estimates that the global stablecoin market could reach $2 trillion by 2028, with approximately $1.6 trillion flowing into U.S. Treasury markets [3]. Group 3: Global Impact and Adoption of Stablecoins - The global stablecoin market has surpassed $270 billion, with daily trading volumes exceeding those of Visa and Mastercard combined [4]. - In countries with high inflation, such as Argentina and Turkey, stablecoins are increasingly used for transactions, exposing users to U.S. monetary policy risks [8]. Group 4: Historical Context and Future Implications - The U.S. has historically used inflation to dilute debt, as seen post-World War II and during the 1970s oil crisis [4][5]. - Kobyakov emphasized that the current financial strategies could lead to the largest wealth transfer of the century, impacting asset holders and wage earners differently [7].

Core Viewpoint - Tether, a stablecoin issuer, has purchased over 8,888 Bitcoin (BTC) with a transaction value of approximately $1 billion [1] Group 1 - Tether's acquisition of Bitcoin indicates a significant investment strategy in the cryptocurrency market [1] - The transaction reflects Tether's confidence in Bitcoin as a store of value and potential for future appreciation [1] - The purchase of over 8,888 BTC marks a notable increase in Tether's Bitcoin holdings [1]

据市场消息，欧洲央行正在为禁止在欧盟与其他司法管辖区同时发行的稳定币争取支持，这为未来 围绕Circle和Paxos等运营商如何跨境管理业务的冲突埋下伏笔。知情人士透露，负责维护欧洲金融体系 安全的欧洲系统风险理事会(ESRB)上周通过了一项建议，呼吁禁止所谓的"多方发行"(multi-issuance)稳 定币。该指导意见由央行行长和欧盟官员组成的高级委员会批准，虽然不具法律约束力，但会对地区监 管机构施加压力，要求其落实相关限制，或解释在缺乏限制的情况下如何维持金融稳定。 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com （责任编辑：刘静 HZ010） ...

Core Insights - Circle is exploring a controversial new mechanism to make its USDC token transactions reversible under specific circumstances, particularly in cases of fraud or hacking, while still maintaining the finality of settlement [2][6] - The initiative reflects a growing recognition within the industry that blockchain must adapt to mainstream financial requirements, despite the inherent contradiction between transaction finality and reversibility [2][6] Group 1: Mechanism and Implementation - The proposed reversible transaction mechanism will not directly modify confirmed blockchain transactions but will introduce a "counter-payment" protocol layer on a new chain called Arc, allowing parties to initiate refunds or rollbacks through mutual agreement in cases of fraud or disputes [3][4] - Arc blockchain utilizes the Malachite consensus engine, achieving transaction confirmation in 350 milliseconds and supporting 10,000 transactions per second, while also planning to incorporate a privacy layer to balance transparency and privacy [4] Group 2: Market Context and Demand - The demand for consumer protection has increased as banks and credit card companies explore stablecoin-based cross-border payments, prompting Circle's controversial yet necessary exploration of reversible transactions [2][6] - USDC's circulation increased by 90% year-over-year in Q2, reaching $61.3 billion, with a report indicating its supply has surpassed $72.5 billion, reflecting strong market demand [5][6] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - If USDC successfully implements reversible transactions, it may enhance its competitive advantage in the stablecoin market, attracting institutional investors and financial institutions seeking refund guarantees for cross-border payments [6] - The introduction of reversible transactions could push the stablecoin market towards a more compliant, secure, and institution-friendly direction, compelling competitors to find a new balance between security and decentralization [6]

这项拟议中的禁令得到了欧洲央行的支持，该行行长拉加德是ESRB中央银行行长委员会主席，该委员 会成员包括欧盟官员和监管机构代表。这些人士表示，ESRB 还强调了在欧盟范围内对多方发行稳定币 的运作方式制定更明确的保障措施，作为一种替代方案，尽管这种方案并非最优选择。 智通财经APP获悉，欧洲央行正争取获得对在该地区及其他司法管辖区联合发行稳定币的禁令的支持， 这为围绕像Circle(CRCL.US)和 Paxos Inc. 这类运营商如何在不同地区开展业务而产生的冲突埋下了伏 笔。据知情人士透露，负责维护欧洲金融体系安全的欧洲系统风险理事会(ESRB)上周通过了一项建 议，呼吁禁止所谓的"多方发行"(multi-issuance)稳定币。 负责监管欧洲金融体系的欧洲系统性风险委员会上周通过了一项建议，即禁止所谓的"多方发行"稳定 币。欧洲证券及市场管理局的这份指导意见是由由央行行长和欧盟官员组成的高级别委员会批准的，但 它并不具有法律约束力。不过，这将迫使该地区的相关机构执行这些限制措施，否则就得解释在这些措 施缺失的情况下如何保障金融稳定。 稳定币是一种追踪其他资产(如美元)价格的加密货币，通常依靠传统资金 ...

9 月 29 日深夜引发全网恐慌的 500 枚比特币（价值 5.4 亿）转账，在 30 日迎来关键转折，链上数据显示资金至今未拆分转出，分析师直接喊出："这不是抛 售，是机构在偷偷囤货！" 冷钱包零拆分异动：截至目前，接收资金的币安冷钱包（bc1q...x7z9）未发生任何转出操作，更没有出现 "雪花式小额拆分"（这是巨鲸抛售的典型特征）。 要知道，2024 年 Mt.Gox 债权人抛售比特币前，曾将 1 万枚 BTC 拆分成 200 多笔转出。 从区块链浏览器扒出的细节，每一条都在推翻 "抛售预警" 地址绑定机构标签：PeckShield 安全团队监测发现，该冷钱包关联 12 个机构级存储地址，过往 3 年累计接收超 10 万枚 BTC，且单次存储周期均超过 18 个 月，完全符合对冲基金 "长期配置" 的操作习惯。 币安冷钱包能成为机构 "保险柜"，靠的是两大硬核优势： #比特币巨鲸追踪# #机构囤币信号# #币安冷钱包异动# #加密市场风向# 物理隔离防攻击，冷钱包采用离线存储模式，与互联网物理隔绝，相比热钱包安全性提升 100 倍。要知道，币安曾在 2019 年遭遇热钱包被盗，但冷钱包从 未出过安全事 ...