1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - economic data shows a mixed picture, with some indicators like GDP growth slowing down while others such as CPI turning positive. The commodity market has different trends, with gold rising and silver experiencing significant price fluctuations. The financial market has various developments including bond market changes and currency exchange rate movements. The stock market shows a shift in capital flow from mainstream wide - based ETFs to specific high - growth theme ETFs [1][2][36]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Macro Data - GDP growth in Q4 2025 was 4.5% year - on - year, down from 4.8% in the previous quarter and 5.4% in the same period last year. The manufacturing PMI in January 2026 was 49.3%, slightly up from 49.0% in the previous month. The non - manufacturing PMI: business activity was 49.4%, down from 50.1% in the previous month [1]. - In December 2025, social financing scale was 22075 billion yuan, lower than 35299 billion yuan in the previous month. M0, M1, and M2 growth rates showed different trends, with M0 growth slowing down, M1 growth dropping significantly, and M2 growth slightly increasing [1]. - CPI in December 2025 was 0.8% year - on - year, turning positive from - 0.3% in the previous month. PPI was - 1.9% year - on - year, slightly improving from - 2.3% in the previous month [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The State Council executive meeting studied policies to promote effective investment, aiming to use various funds and tools to promote major projects in key areas [2]. - In January 2026, the futures market had a good start, with total funds increasing by over 400 billion yuan to 2.57 trillion yuan, and customer equity increasing by about 19% compared to the end of 2025. The number of futures customers also continued to grow [2]. - The Shanghai Gold Exchange adjusted the margin ratio and price limit of some contracts [2]. 3.2.2 Metals - On February 9, spot gold rose 1% to return to the $5000 mark, and spot silver rose nearly 3%. From February 2 to 6, the on - site price of Guotou Silver LOF dropped 40.94% in a single week [4][5]. - China's foreign exchange reserves increased for the sixth consecutive month, and gold reserves increased for 15 consecutive months. In January 2026, global gold ETFs attracted a record $18.7 billion in capital inflows [5][6]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - In late January, the daily output of crude steel of key steel enterprises was 1.935 million tons, down 2.22% month - on - month and 8.25% year - on - year [9]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - Indian refiners are avoiding purchasing Russian oil for April delivery. The IEA predicts that by 2030, the combined share of renewable energy and nuclear power in the global power structure will rise to 50% [10]. - The EU proposed the 20th round of sanctions against Russia, covering energy, financial services, and trade. The US Energy Secretary will visit Venezuela to understand local oil and gas production [10][11]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - The national standard for pre - made food safety is open for public comment, with restrictions on preservatives and shelf - life. The agricultural department will strengthen the regulation of pig production capacity [13]. - APK reduced Ukraine's corn and rapeseed export forecasts. Brazilian soybean sales reached 33.9% of the expected output, lower than 42.4% in the same period last year [13]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On February 6, the central bank conducted 31.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 300 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 146 billion yuan. This week, there will be 405.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase and 500 billion yuan of 182 - day repurchase due [16]. 3.3.2 Important News - This week, important domestic and international events include the release of economic data, corporate earnings reports, and international negotiations. The State Council studied policies to promote effective investment, and the central government emphasized the front - loading of macro - policies [17]. - Eight departments jointly issued a document to ban virtual currency - related business activities. The CSRC issued a regulatory guide for the overseas issuance of asset - backed securities tokens [18]. - The Ministry of Commerce will build a policy system to cultivate new service consumption growth points. China's foreign exchange and gold reserves increased, and the Asian and global manufacturing PMIs showed different trends [19][21]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Review - In the inter - bank bond market, bond yields generally declined, and bond futures rose. In the exchange bond market, some bonds had significant price changes. The convertible bond index rose, and the currency market interest rates had different trends [26][27][28]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose 7 points at the 16:30 close, and the RMB central parity rate against the US dollar was adjusted down 20 points. The US dollar index fell 0.36% [31]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Shenwan Fixed - income believes that the convertible bond market style is solidified, and the supply - demand contradiction is intensified. CITIC Securities expects the market to return to the main lines of domestic policy and economic repair and overseas Fed rate - cut expectations in February [32][33]. - CICC believes that the Fed is unlikely to "shrink the balance sheet" in the short term, and the final rate - cut amplitude may exceed market expectations. CICC Fixed - income believes that the default risk of short - duration urban investment bonds is still low [33][34]. 3.4 Stock Market News - In 2026, the A - share ETF market showed a trend of capital flowing from mainstream wide - based ETFs to theme ETFs. Southbound funds have continuously increased their investment in the Hong Kong stock market, and the Hong Kong IPO market has maintained its popularity [36]. 3.5 Today's Reminder - On February 9, 248 bonds are listed, 118 bonds are issued, 147 bonds are due for payment, and 309 bonds are due for principal and interest repayment [35].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2026 年 2 月 9 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：呈现出外强内弱、震荡偏弱格局。目前国内大豆供应宽松，巴西大豆创纪录丰产且正处于收获 上市高峰期，2 月对华出口预计超千万吨，叠加国内油厂大豆和豆粕库存均处于历史同期高位，供应压力 持续。需求端因春节前备货基本结束、下游养殖业普遍亏损而表现疲软，饲料企业物理库存不降反升，现 货成交清淡。虽然国内豆类跟随外盘小幅反弹，但受到国内高库存与弱需求的双重压制整体上行乏力。短 期豆粕期价震荡偏弱运行。 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为 ...

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 观点参考 宝城期货煤焦早报（2026 年 2 月 9 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 焦煤维持低位区间震荡 | | 焦炭 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 供需暂稳，焦炭震荡整理 | 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：截至 2 月 6 日当周，全国 523 家炼焦 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core View - Precious metals rebounded after a significant shock, mainly influenced by the nomination of the Fed chair and fund stampede. The nomination of Kevin Warsh, a traditional hawk, cooled the expectation of interest rate cuts and led to a rebound in the US dollar index. A large number of funds took profits. In the long run, the supporting factors for the upward movement of gold have not reversed. After the market is fully adjusted and new positive factors accumulate, gold is expected to return to a steady upward channel. Due to the higher volatility of silver and the relatively low gold - silver ratio, investors are advised to wait and see [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The closing prices of Shanghai Gold 2606 and 2604 decreased by 1.48% and 1.41% respectively, and those of Shanghai Silver 2606 and 2604 decreased by 7.93% and 7.19% respectively compared with the previous day [2] - **Positions and Volumes**: The positions of Shanghai Gold 2606 and 2604 are 84,618 and 163,840 respectively, and the trading volumes are 126,031 and 494,742 respectively. The positions of Shanghai Silver 2606 and 2604 are 128,060 and 227,163 respectively, and the trading volumes are 597,736 and 1,291,544 respectively [2] - **Spot Premium and Discount**: The spot premium and discount of Shanghai Gold 2606 is - 1.23, and that of Shanghai Gold 2604 is 1.37. The spot premium and discount of Shanghai Silver 2606 is 253, and that of Shanghai Silver 2604 is - 602 [2] Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The closing price of Shanghai Gold T + D decreased by 1.30%, and the closing price of London Gold increased by 3.98%. The closing price of Shanghai Silver T + D decreased by 8.49%, and the closing price of London Silver increased by 9.70% [2] - **Price Ratios**: The current value of Shanghai Gold 2606 - Shanghai Gold 2604 is 2.60, and the current value of Shanghai Silver 2606 - Shanghai Silver 2604 is - 855.00. The current value of the gold - silver ratio (spot) is 59.98, the ratio of Shanghai Gold to London Gold is 0.98, and the ratio of Shanghai Silver to London Silver is 1.05 [2] Inventory - **Changes**: The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold remained unchanged at 104,052 kilograms, and the inventory of silver decreased by 62,559 kilograms to 349,900 kilograms. The COMEX gold inventory decreased by 121,403 ounces to 35,370,105 ounces, and the COMEX silver inventory decreased by 3,498,075 ounces to 394,511,408 ounces [2] Related Derivatives - **Positions and Changes**: The position of SPDR Gold ETF decreased by 2 tons to 1,076 tons, and the position of SLV Silver ETF decreased by 56 tons to 16,191 tons. The net position of CFTC speculators in gold decreased by 39,792 to 165,604, and the net position in silver increased by 2,174 to 25,877 [2] Macro Information - **Political News**: The scandal of Peter Mandelson's appointment as the British Ambassador to Washington has put pressure on Prime Minister Starmer. His chief of staff Morgan McSweeney resigned, and there are speculations about Starmer's possible resignation. In the Japanese House of Representatives election, the ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Innovation Party won a majority of seats [3] - **Market Trends**: The yen continued its recent decline in the Asian trading session on Monday. The market is concerned about the design and communication of fiscal policies. The US Treasury Secretary believes that gold is in a typical speculative selling market and does not expect the Fed to take rapid action on the balance - sheet issue [3]

2026年02月09日 申万期货品种策略日报-铂、钯 | | | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | 陈梦赟（从业资格号：F03147376；交易咨询号：Z0022753） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | sunxm@sywgqh.com.cn | | 021-50585921 | | | | | | pt2606 | pt2608 | pt2610 | pd2606 | pd2608 | pd2610 | | | 现价 | 506.00 | 498.55 | 491.60 | 410.50 | 408.45 | 405.55 | | 期 | 前收盘价 | 540.30 | 536.90 | 531.40 | 442.70 | 435.65 | 424.30 | | 货 | 涨跌 | -42.85 | -47.45 | -42.25 | -26.75 | -26.25 | -17.60 | | 市 场 | 涨跌幅 | -7.81% | -8.69% | -7.91% | -6.12% | -6.04% | -4.16% ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Negative Outlook**: Copper, iron ore, p-xylene, PTA, MEG, synthetic rubber, LLDPE, PVC [8][47][71][83][86][131] - **Neutral Outlook**: Gold, silver, zinc, lead, tin, aluminum, alumina, cast aluminum alloy, platinum, palladium, nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, polysilicon, rebar, hot-rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, thermal coal, log, benzene, styrene, soda ash, LPG, propylene, fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, container shipping index (European line), staple fiber, bottle chips, offset printing paper, pure benzene, soybean meal, soybean, corn, sugar, cotton, eggs, peanuts [5][11][15][18][25][28][32][39][44][51][56][60][64][66][114][116][122][123][134][136][145][148][153][157][160][163][167][172][181] - **Positive Outlook**: None 2. Core Views - The report provides an in - depth analysis of various commodities, including their price trends, supply - demand relationships, and market news. It emphasizes the importance of considering macro - economic factors, industry policies, and geopolitical events when evaluating investment opportunities in the commodity market. For example, factors such as international trade agreements, central bank policies, and geopolitical tensions can significantly impact commodity prices [7][12][31]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to rebound in a volatile manner, with China's central bank increasing its gold reserves for the fifteenth consecutive month [5][7]. - **Silver**: Likely to decline from its high level [5]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Platinum is expected to recover in a volatile state, while palladium rebounds following the precious metals sector [28]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Trading is cautious, and prices are volatile. Industry news includes potential changes in copper resource reserves and production adjustments by major companies [8][10]. - **Zinc**: Prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [11]. - **Lead**: Supply and demand are both weak, and prices are volatile [15]. - **Tin**: Prices are in a consolidation phase [18]. - **Aluminum**: Attention should be paid to post - holiday inventory reduction. Alumina prices are expected to converge in a volatile manner, and cast aluminum alloy prices follow those of electrolytic aluminum [25]. - **Nickel**: Affected by pre - holiday capital outflows, the medium - term contradiction lies in Indonesia. Stainless steel has frequent maintenance and production cuts in February, and cost support has shifted upwards [32]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil - related**: The report does not directly cover crude oil, but related products such as fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil are analyzed. Fuel oil is in a narrow - range adjustment, and the short - term weakness has eased. Low - sulfur fuel oil is in a weak and volatile state, and the spot price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels continues to decline [134]. - **Chemicals**: PX is in a pre - holiday range - bound market with a weakening monthly spread. PTA is in a range - bound market, and MEG requires range - bound operations. Synthetic rubber is under pressure and volatile. LLDPE has a narrowing import window and is in a pre - holiday volatile market. PP has limited valuation repair, and export weekly orders are declining. Caustic soda has rising costs and a low valuation [71][83][86][89][92]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean and Related Products**: Overnight US soybeans rose slightly, and Dalian soybean meal may fluctuate. The spot market for soybeans is gradually entering the holiday mode, and the futures price is volatile [157]. - **Corn**: The decline is expected to be limited [160]. - **Sugar**: Prices are in a narrow - range consolidation [163]. - **Cotton**: Prices are expected to remain volatile before the holiday [167]. - **Eggs**: Prices are in an oscillatory adjustment [172]. - **Hogs**: The peak season is confirmed to be weak, and the release of the "backlog" has begun [176]. - **Peanuts**: Prices are in an oscillatory state [181]. Others - **Iron Ore**: Stockpiling is nearing completion, and demand expectations are weakening [47]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The apparent demand has weakened month - on - month, and prices are in a wide - range oscillation [51][52]. - **Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese**: There is a game between fundamentals and sentiment, and prices are in a wide - range oscillation [56]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Prices are in a high - level oscillation [60]. - **Thermal Coal**: Prices are expected to remain stable before the holiday [64]. - **Log**: Port arrivals are low, and spot prices are rising steadily [66]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The market is oscillatory [136]. - **Staple Fiber and Bottle Chips**: The short - term market is oscillatory [145]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Short positions should stop losses and exit [148]. - **Pure Benzene**: Prices are in a strong and volatile state [153].

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 观点参考 宝城期货动力煤早报（2026 年 2 月 9 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：动力煤现货 日内观点： 中期观点： 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：本周，国内动力煤价格继续企稳，iFind 数据显示，截至 2 月 5 日，秦皇岛港 5500K 动 力煤报价 692 元/吨，周环比小幅上涨 1 元/吨。当前正处于迎峰度冬关键时期，全国电厂煤炭日 耗高企，带动产业链中下游库存去化，但同时动力煤产量平稳运行，叠加市场对其中长期基本面 依然持有偏空预期，压制煤价维持低位运行。 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | | | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 ...

贵金属日报 2026-02-09 贵金属 【行情资讯】 沪金涨 2.82 %，报 1114.50 元/克，沪银涨 3.51 %，报 19840.00 元/千克；COMEX 金涨 2.03 %， 报 4988.60 美元/盎司，COMEX 银涨 1.06 %，报 77.53 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率 报 4.22 %，美元指数报 97.61 ； 黄金方面，当前行情维持高位震荡，市场普遍定价美联储 6 月降息预期，为金价提供了核心基 本面支撑；在美国就业数据表现偏弱的背景下，上周五博斯蒂克表态称，在高通胀持续的环境 下，需等到 4-5 月数据才能给出更明确的政策信号，并暗示美联储可能需要更多依托非官方数 据来评估经济形势。同时，前期集中抛售也为场外观望资金提供了逢低布局的机会，因此金价 中期趋势仍偏向震荡上行。 白银方面，当前 COMEX 白银总库存、注册仓单与非注册仓单同步下行，表明交易所库存变动并 非仓单内部结构转换，而是由现货实质性流出、产业需求与投资端实物吸纳共同驱动的净去库， 反映全球可交割白银供给持续偏紧。前期大幅下跌主要清理投机杠杆资金，当前产业盘与交割 盘占比明显提升，在全球交易所 ...

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2026 年 2 月 9 日 关注节后预期变化 钢价震荡为主 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 13 钢材月报 ⚫ 供给端：1月钢材生产呈现回升态势，但受限于钢厂整 体盈利面偏弱及淡季需求走弱，进一步增产的动力不 足。进入2月，短流程企业因春节临近而逐步减产，后 续供应增长将主要依赖高炉产能释放。然而，考虑到当 前利润空间依然有限、库存压力尚未缓解，预计整体增 产空间较为有限。 ⚫ 需求端：春节临近，钢材消费边际转弱。其中螺纹钢表 观消费量降至176万吨，工地采购以刚需为主，投机需 求几近停滞；板材表现相对坚挺，热卷表观消费量微降 至310万吨。今年贸易商普遍冬储意愿偏低，对节后需 求复苏持谨慎态度，投机囤 ...