Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - The production side shows mixed trends, with some indicators like power plant daily consumption falling during the holiday, while the blast furnace operating rate rising against the trend; the demand side has a weak rebound in the property market and strong growth in the auto market, but prices of steel, cement, glass and other products are weak or fluctuating; inflation shows different trends in CPI and PPI, with post - holiday pig prices weakening and oil prices rising [4] Summary of Each Section According to the Directory 1. Economic Growth: Weak Rebound in the Property Market During the Holiday 1.1 Production: Rising Blast Furnace Operating Rate Against the Trend - **Power plant daily consumption decline during the holiday**: On February 24, the average daily consumption of 6 large power generation groups was 58.4 tons, a 0.7% decrease from February 17; on February 13, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 240.1 tons, a 22.9% decrease from February 9 [4][11] - **Rising blast furnace operating rate against the trend**: On February 13, the national blast furnace operating rate was 80.2%, a 0.6 - percentage - point increase from February 6; the capacity utilization rate was 86.4%, a 0.7 - percentage - point increase from February 6. The operating rate of blast furnaces in Tangshan steel mills was 96.8% on February 13, a 4.5 - percentage - point increase from February 6 [4][15] - **Tire operating rate dropping to the same - period low last year during the holiday**: On February 19, the operating rate of truck all - steel tires was 14.2%, a 28.2 - percentage - point decrease from February 12; the operating rate of car semi - steel tires was 14.2%, a 45.2 - percentage - point decrease from February 12. The operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions also had a seasonal decline [4][17] 1.2 Demand: Weak Rebound in the Property Market During the Holiday - **Weak rebound in the property market during the holiday**: From the first day to the seventh day of the Lunar New Year, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 75,000 square meters, a 15.9% increase from the same period last year, a 44.6% increase from the same period in 2024, and a 54.0% decrease from the same period in 2023. The rebound strength in first - tier cities was stronger than that in second - and third - tier cities [21] - **Stronger growth in auto market retail sales**: In February, retail sales increased by 54% year - on - year, and wholesale sales increased by 46% year - on - year [4][25] - **Weak and fluctuating steel prices**: On February 24, the prices of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil and cold - rolled coil decreased by 0.3%, 0.3%, 0.9% and remained flat respectively compared with February 14. The inventory of steel products also increased rapidly [29] - **Continued weakness in cement prices**: On February 24, the national cement price index decreased by 0.2% compared with February 12. The prices in East China and the Yangtze River regions decreased by 0.3% and 0.4% respectively, slightly weaker than the national average [30] - **Narrow - range fluctuations in glass prices**: On February 24, the active futures contract price of glass was 1048 yuan/ton, a 0.8% decrease from February 13 [36] - **Unstoppable decline in container shipping freight rate index**: On February 13, the CCFI index decreased by 3.0% compared with February 6, and the SCFI index decreased by 1.2% during the same period [40] 2. Inflation: Weakening Pig Prices After the Holiday 2.1 CPI: Weakening Pig Prices After the Holiday - **Weakening pig prices after the holiday**: On February 24, the average wholesale price of pork was 18.3 yuan/kg, a 0.2% decrease from February 14 [45] - **Seasonal decline in the agricultural product price index**: On February 24, the agricultural product wholesale price index decreased by 0.8% compared with February 14. Different agricultural products showed different price trends [50] 2.2 PPI: Rising Oil Prices - **Rising oil prices**: On February 24, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were 71.4 and 65.6 US dollars/barrel respectively, a 1.8% and 5.3% increase from February 17 [53] - **Falling copper and aluminum prices**: On February 24, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum increased by 3.4% and 1.8% respectively compared with February 17. The domestic commodity index also had a decline in the month - on - month comparison [58] - **Most industrial product prices falling month - on - month**: Since February, most industrial product prices have fallen, with power coal prices rising month - on - month and other products falling, mainly rebar and cement [61]

| 乖 亦安期货 | | --- | 废钢早报 研究中心黑色团队 2026/02/26 | 日期 | 华东 | 华北 | 中部 | 华南 | 东北 | 西南 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026/02/11 | 2190 | 2265 | 2063 | 2220 | 2215 | 2107 | | 2026/02/12 | 2190 | 2264 | 2063 | 2220 | 2215 | 2107 | | 2026/02/13 | 2190 | 2264 | 2063 | 2220 | 2215 | 2107 | | 2026/02/24 | 2191 | 2264 | 2063 | 2220 | 2215 | 2107 | | 2026/02/25 | 2191 | 2265 | 2063 | 2220 | 2215 | 2107 | | 环比 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的 ...

Market Overview - Year-to-date, stock ETFs have shown a net outflow of 187.3 billion yuan as of February 24, 2026[2] - The total return of the Wind All A-Share Index is 6.53% year-to-date, despite significant ETF outflows, indicating a shift in market sentiment[2] International Developments - German Chancellor Friedrich Merz visited China from February 25 to 26, accompanied by a high-level delegation of 30 representatives from the German business sector[3] - The U.S. Trade Representative, Katherine Tai, indicated ongoing investigations into China's compliance with the Phase One trade agreement, suggesting potential tariff measures[3] Stock Market Performance - On February 25, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.72%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.29%, with total trading volume reaching 24,625.48 billion yuan, an increase of 2,604.86 billion yuan from the previous trading day[4] - The ChiNext Index rose by 1.41%, and the STAR 50 Index increased by 0.54%[4] Bond Market Insights - The yield on the 10-year government bond is 1.8195%, with a change of +1.42 basis points[5] - The average rates for R001 and R007 in the interbank market were 1.4652% and 1.5869%, respectively[5] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included steel (4.69%), non-ferrous metals (3.48%), and building materials (2.75%), while banking and media sectors saw declines of 0.46% and 1.15%, respectively[5]

Market Overview - On February 25, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.72% to 4147.23 points, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.29% to 14475.86 points, and the ChiNext Index climbed by 1.41% to 3354.82 points. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.46 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 260.48 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day. A total of 3540 stocks rose, 1529 fell, and 121 remained unchanged, with thematic sectors showing strong performance [1]. Popular Stocks - The top ten popular stocks in A-shares include Baogang Group, Aerospace Development, Changchun High-tech, Yuntianhua, Hancable, Northern Rare Earth, Hebang Biotechnology, Jinzhengdai, Chuanjinnuo, and Lioo [1][2]. Baogang Group - Baogang Group's market attention is driven by its advantages in rare earth resources and the effectiveness of its strategic transformation. The price of rare earth concentrate has been raised for the sixth consecutive time, indicating an improvement in its bargaining power within the rare earth industry chain. The production of rare earth steel reached a historical high of 1.5 million tons, supported by its exclusive supply rights from the world's largest rare earth mine [3]. Aerospace Development - Aerospace Development's rise in popularity is attributed to dual advancements in governance optimization and strategic layout. The company has recently completed a standardized board of directors' restructuring and revised several management systems. Its subsidiary, Aerospace Tianmu, is advancing the "Tianmu No. 1" satellite project through capital increase and expansion, enhancing its strategic positioning in military informationization and commercial aerospace [3]. Changchun High-tech - Changchun High-tech is gaining attention due to significant breakthroughs in the innovative drug sector. The company has received clinical approval for the world's first ointment for treating pediatric micropenis and has strong sales for its IL-1β monoclonal antibody. Additionally, it secured a $1.365 billion overseas business development contract, marking a substantial business increment [4]. Yuntianhua - Yuntianhua's market interest stems from its resource advantages and external demand. The company possesses nearly 800 million tons of phosphate reserves with a self-sufficiency rate of 100%. The production of its 100,000-ton iron phosphate project has commenced, and the upcoming spring farming season is expected to boost phosphate fertilizer demand [4]. Hancable - Hancable's popularity is driven by technological advantages underpinned by policy support. The State Grid's investment plan of 4 trillion yuan is expected to stimulate demand for high-end cables, particularly in ultra-high voltage and flexible direct current sectors. The company has core technologies in ±535kV submarine cables and has optimized its governance structure to enhance competitiveness [5]. Northern Rare Earth - Northern Rare Earth's market focus is influenced by policy, supply-demand dynamics, and performance. As a leader in the rare earth industry, the company benefits from national protection policies and the tightening of supply controls, which have improved the supply-demand balance and driven up rare earth prices. The company's net profit is expected to increase by 116.67% to 1.346 billion yuan [5]. Hebang Biotechnology - Hebang Biotechnology's rise is linked to resource layout and positive business developments. The company has obtained exploration rights for over 1,000 square kilometers of gold mines in Australia and is advancing multi-metal mining projects in Xinjiang. Its methionine business is experiencing growth, and external factors such as rising commodity prices are enhancing profitability [6]. Jinzhengdai, Chuanjinnuo, and Lioo - Jinzhengdai is benefiting from increased attention in the fertilizer industry, with rising domestic urea prices and improved governance structure. Chuanjinnuo is seeing a significant profit increase of 144%-180% due to international phosphate prices exceeding $700 per ton. Lioo has capitalized on AI marketing and liquid cooling server trends, achieving a net profit increase of 469.1% [6].

Core Viewpoint - Several steel companies reported a strong start in January 2026, achieving production targets and setting new records in key performance indicators [1] Group 1: Production Performance - Fangda Steel achieved production completion rates of 105.01% for pig iron, 110.63% for crude steel, and 110.71% for steel products in January [1] - Yangchun New Steel reported a sales rate of 101% for the entire month of January, indicating successful sales channel breakthroughs [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - Nearly 30 steel listed companies have released their performance forecasts for 2025, with over half reporting positive net profits attributable to shareholders [1] - Companies such as Hualing Steel, Shougang Co., and Liugang Co. are expected to report net profits exceeding 500 million yuan for the 2025 fiscal year [1]

黑色建材日报 2026-02-26 昨日商品市场整体情绪回暖，成材价格出现技术性反弹。宏观方面，2026 年 2 月 25 日，上海发布楼市"沪 七条"，以更具针对性的政策优化核心区域（外环内）购房条件，叠加最高 240 万元公积金贷款额度所形 成的杠杆效应，意在提前催化"金三银四"成交行情，明显提振人才及改善性住房需求入市预期。整体来 看，该政策有助于加快房地产市场止跌企稳进程。作为核心一线城市，上海率先调整政策，亦具备较强的 风向标意义和示范效应。综合来看，当前黑色系仍处于多空因素交织下的底部博弈阶段。春节假期结束后， 需重点跟踪板材需求实际恢复强度、两会政策动向以及"双碳"相关政策是否出现边际调整。短期内黑色 系大概率维持区间震荡、重心偏弱运行，趋势性机会尚未形成。 铁矿石 【行情资讯】 从业资格号：F03098415 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3076 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 49 元/吨（1.618%）。当日注册仓单 19597 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 198.87 万手，环比减少 45800 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总价 格为 3130 元/吨, 环比减少 10/吨; ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the rebar and hot - rolled coil sector, the market is currently in a holiday mode with weak supply and demand. It is expected to start after the Lantern Festival. The market's demand expectation for 2026 is relatively weak. Although the futures price has rebounded significantly, whether it can reverse remains to be seen. Due to the low current valuation, the downside space may be limited [2]. - For the iron ore sector, the market is still in a holiday mode and is expected to enter the consumption peak season after the Lantern Festival. The supply is affected by seasonal factors, with short - term shipments remaining low but expected to gradually recover. The port inventory has reached a record high. The iron ore has a technical rebound, but it is not certain if it has bottomed out [4]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market News**: Shanghai issued the "Shanghai Seven - Point Plan" to further reduce housing purchase restrictions. Some steel enterprises in North China received a notice of temporary independent emission reduction during the 2026 National Two Sessions, with a requirement of at least 30% reduction in blast furnace load from March 4th to March 11th [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Before the Spring Festival, the output of rebar from 247 sample steel mills decreased significantly, the apparent demand declined month - on - month, and the total inventory continued to rise. The total output of the five major varieties decreased significantly, and the inventory continued to increase. The apparent demand is at a low level for the year [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price has a significant rebound, but whether it can form a reversal remains to be observed. Due to the low valuation, the downside space may be limited [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude and trade cautiously [2]. - **Data**: A large amount of data on rebar and hot - rolled coil, including prices, basis, spreads, production, inventory, and apparent demand, are provided in Table 1 [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Demand**: The market is in a holiday mode and is expected to enter the consumption peak season after the Lantern Festival. Before the Spring Festival, the average daily hot metal output of 247 sample steel mills increased slightly, and the steel and hot metal output are at a seasonal low. The market is more concerned about the spring consumption demand [4]. - **Supply**: Affected by seasonal factors in the Southern Hemisphere, the short - term shipments are expected to remain low but will gradually recover as the weather improves. The arrival volume has rebounded, and the port inventory has reached a record high [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: Driven by the Shanghai real - estate new policy and the rise of rebar, the iron ore has a technical rebound, but it is not certain if it has bottomed out [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold short positions lightly [4]. - **Data**: A large amount of data on iron ore, including prices, basis, spreads, shipments, arrival volume, inventory, and freight rates, are provided in Table 2 [5]. 3.3 Industry News - **Real - Estate Policy**: Shanghai issued the "Shanghai Seven - Point Plan" to further reduce housing purchase restrictions, including reducing the social security years for non - Shanghai residents to buy housing within the outer ring from 3 years to 1 year, allowing those who have paid social security for 3 years to purchase an additional property, and allowing those with a residence permit for 5 years to buy a property without social security. The maximum amount of provident fund family loans can reach 3.24 million yuan. Shanghai - registered families can be temporarily exempted from property tax if the newly purchased housing is their only property [7]. - **Coal Mine Production**: According to Mysteel's statistics, the daily output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines increased by 430,000 tons week - on - week. Most coal mines that were on holiday during the Spring Festival have resumed production, and the output has increased significantly. However, the production is still at a low level, and a few coal mines will not be able to produce normally until after the Lantern Festival. The output will continue to increase next week. The coking coal inventory is 2.577 million tons, an increase of 60,000 tons month - on - month. After the Spring Festival, the market is in a wait - and - see mood, coking and steel enterprises are reducing inventory, and their purchasing enthusiasm is low, while the coal mine resumption rhythm is relatively fast, resulting in a slight accumulation of pit - mouth inventory [7][8]

Group 1 - The steel sector has seen a significant increase, primarily driven by catalysts from both supply and demand sides. On the demand side, favorable real estate policies in key cities are expected to bolster demand expectations [2] - On the supply side, there is an anticipated contraction in 2026, with iron ore having room for price reductions. The industry is expected to accelerate into a phase of survival of the fittest [3] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) released the "Steel Industry Normative Conditions (2025 Edition)" on February 8, which serves as a guiding document for the steel industry. The MIIT has begun to classify and evaluate steel enterprises, promoting resource allocation towards leading companies [3] Group 2 - The current steel sector may represent a bottoming area with significant elasticity and expectation differences. After four years of decline, industry expectations are low, with winter storage accumulation being the weakest in recent years and total inventory of five major steel products at a near-low level [4] - Low inventory levels suggest that if supply and demand are catalyzed, steel prices may have upward elasticity. Recent increases in steel prices in Southeast Asia reflect some positive signals [4] - Investors are encouraged to pay attention to the only steel ETF available in the market (515210) [4]

Group 1 - The steel industry is transitioning from a "cold winter" to a "warm spring" as production resumes post-Spring Festival and industry fundamentals improve [1] - On February 25, the A-share steel sector saw a collective surge, with the main steel stocks rising over 5% and a net inflow of 1.502 billion yuan [1] - Several steel companies reported strong production in January 2026, with Fangda Steel achieving production rates of 105.01% for pig iron, 110.63% for crude steel, and 110.71% for steel products [1] Group 2 - The steel social inventory continues to rise, but the increase is lower than in previous years, indicating manageable inventory pressure for steel mills [2] - A joint plan by multiple government departments aims to stabilize growth in the steel industry, focusing on governance, supply optimization, transformation promotion, consumption expansion, and cooperation [2] - Analysts expect stable steel demand supported by real estate stabilization, steady infrastructure investment, and sustained manufacturing development [2] Group 3 - Multiple institutions hold an optimistic outlook for the steel industry, with China Galaxy Securities highlighting the improvement in supply-demand dynamics and industry profitability as key investment themes [3] - The upcoming peak season for industrial, infrastructure, and real estate activities in March and April is expected to further drive price increases in the steel sector [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant role of Heilongjiang Jianlong Steel Co., Ltd. in stabilizing employment in the local area, having created over 20,000 jobs through direct employment and industry chain effects since its establishment in 2003 [1][2] - The company plans to recruit 15 to 20 university graduates and 30 to 40 ordinary workers, implementing a dual-line recruitment strategy that focuses on both campus and social recruitment [1] - The company has been actively involved in projects such as comprehensive gas utilization for power generation and green intelligent manufacturing, which have generated substantial labor demand and contributed to regional employment supply [2] Group 2 - The company provides comprehensive employee benefits, including social insurance, paid annual leave, heating subsidies, and free employee dormitories, ensuring a solid foundation for employee welfare [2] - The local government has been optimizing the business environment, facilitating the company's operations through policies that allow for immediate benefits without application, and organizing participation in trade events to expand market opportunities [2] - Heilongjiang Jianlong Steel Co., Ltd. has been recognized as a provincial-level intelligent factory, reflecting its commitment to innovation and operational excellence [2]