价 格 和 利 润 | | | | 钢材早报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 研究中心黑色团队 2026/02/04 | | | 现 货 价 格 | | | | | | | | 日期 | 北京螺纹 | 上海螺纹 | 成都螺纹 | 西安螺纹 | 广州螺纹 | 武汉螺纹 | | 2026/01/28 | 3160 | 3230 | 3310 | 3240 | 3410 | 3320 | | 2026/01/29 | 3160 | 3280 | 3340 | 3240 | 3410 | 3350 | | 2026/01/30 | 3160 | 3240 | 3340 | 3240 | 3450 | 3310 | | 2026/02/02 | 3120 | 3210 | 3340 | 3240 | 3400 | 3310 | | 2026/02/03 | - | - | - | - | - | - | | 变化 | - | - | - | - | - | - | | 日期 | 天津热卷 | 上海热卷 | 乐从热卷 | 天津 ...

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2026-02-04 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2026-02-04 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 欧美股市集体收跌 观点分享： 欧美股市集体收跌，纳指跌超 1%，大型科技股领跌。周二（2 月 3 日）欧美股市集体 收跌，标普 500 指数跌近 1%，纳指跌超 1%。科技股普跌，美光科技跌超 4%，微软、英伟 达跌近 3%。黄金股表现强劲，盎格鲁黄金涨超 6%，泛美白银涨逾 5%。沃尔玛涨近 3%， 市值突破 1 万亿美元。市场对美联储货币政策不确定性加剧，叠加地缘紧张局势，压制市场 风险偏好，科技股承压明显。 所 长 首 推 | 板块 关注指数 | | --- | | 化工 ★★★★ | | 化工：当前化工板块主要矛盾有两方面：（1）关注反内卷带来的全行业利润修复预期，在 1 | | 月整体化工板块涨幅中，反内卷预期带来的利润修复是主要矛盾，目前芳烃板块已经大幅盈 | | 利，而烯烃板块涨幅相对偏小，部分品种如聚丙烯仍处于亏损状态；（2）伊朗带来的地缘溢 | | 价，伊朗主要影响整体化工的成本支撑，以及相关品种甲醇、LPG、乙二醇、塑料和尿素。 | ...

2026年02月04日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：预期现实博弈，矿价窄幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：成本预期松动，弱势震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：商品情绪共振，弱势震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：高位震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：高位震荡 | 7 | | 动力煤：供需弱平衡，节前煤价以稳为主 | 9 | | 原木：小幅探涨 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 4 日 铁矿石：预期现实博弈，矿价窄幅震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | 期 货 | | | 昨日收盘价（元/吨） | 涨跌（元/吨） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | -5.5 | -0.70% | | | I2605 | | 777.5 | 昨日持 ...

黑色建材日报 2026-02-04 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3099 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 1 元/吨（0.032%）。当日注册仓单 16931 吨, 环比增加 2090 吨。主力合约持仓量为 180.51 万手，环比增加 21029 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总 价格为 3160 元/吨, 环比减少 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3230 元/吨, 环比减少 0 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合 约收盘价为 3265 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 4 元/吨（0.122%）。 当日注册仓单 199447 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。 主力合约持仓量为 147.72 万手，环比减少 21563 手。 现货方面, 热轧板卷乐从汇总价格为 3270 元/吨, 环比增加 10 元/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3270 元/吨, 环比增加 10 元/吨。 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z002077 ...

Market Overview - As of February 3, the national main port iron ore transactions reached 907,000 tons, an increase of 11% month-on-month [5] - The steel industry is experiencing a mixed performance, with 247 steel mills operating at a blast furnace utilization rate of 79%, up 0.32 percentage points week-on-week and up 1.02 percentage points year-on-year [5] - The average daily pig iron production was 2.2798 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.12 million tons week-on-week [5] Steel Production and Inventory - Last week, the total supply of five major steel products was 8.2317 million tons, continuing to rise week-on-week [5] - Rebar production increased by 0.28 million tons to 1.9983 million tons, while hot-rolled production rose by 3.8 million tons to 3.0921 million tons [5][6] - Total steel inventory reached 12.7851 million tons, an increase of 214,300 tons week-on-week, with rebar inventory rising by 234,300 tons, a 5.2% increase [5][6] Rebar Market Insights - Rebar production saw a slight increase, totaling 1.9983 million tons, while total inventory rose to 4.7553 million tons [6][17] - Demand for rebar has decreased by 91,200 tons to 1.764 million tons, indicating a seasonal weakness in the market [6][17] - The market is expected to experience narrow fluctuations in prices as winter storage is nearly complete [6][17] Hot-Rolled Steel Insights - Hot-rolled steel production increased to 3.0921 million tons, with a week-on-week rise of 3.8 million tons [7][18] - Total inventory decreased by 22,000 tons, but the pace of inventory reduction has slowed [7][18] - Traders are adopting a cautious approach, maintaining low inventory and quick turnover strategies [7][18] Iron Alloy Market Overview - The overall supply of iron alloys remains low, with production changes being minimal [9][20] - Cost pressures are stabilizing, with the first round of coke price increases being implemented [9][20] - Demand from steel mills is stable, but production recovery is constrained by profit margins and safety regulations [9][20]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the reports regarding industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - Steel prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend. The upward potential depends on coking coal supply - side policies and market sentiment. It is recommended to hold the long position of the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar and look for short - term long opportunities for hot - rolled coil at the 3250 level [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Before the Spring Festival, iron ore demand is weak. High inventory and high - level supply during the off - season continue to put pressure on prices. It is expected that the price will fluctuate weakly in the short term, and short - selling can be attempted, but be vigilant about macro and market sentiment disturbances [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - For coke, the price increase has been implemented, which drives the market to rebound. However, the lag in the implementation time of price increases by mainstream coke enterprises dampens the expectation of future price increases. After the Spring Festival, there is still an expectation of supply loosening. It is recommended to view it as a unilateral volatility with a reference range of 1600 - 1800, and the arbitrage strategy is to go long on coking coal and short on coke. - For coking coal, the market has a re - evaluation of its value, but the domestic supply - demand is generally balanced. It is also recommended to view it as a unilateral volatility with a reference range of 1050 - 1250, and the arbitrage strategy is to go long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - For ferrosilicon, the short - term supply - demand contradiction is limited, the fundamentals are relatively healthy, and there is cost support. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely in the range of 5500 - 5800, taking into account macro - sentiment fluctuations. - For ferromanganese, it is in a situation of weak supply and demand. After the Spring Festival, there is still an expectation of production resumption, and the fundamentals lack strength. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely in the range of 5600 - 6000, paying attention to macro - sentiment fluctuations [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices: Rebar spot prices in different regions (East China, North China, South China) and futures contract prices (05, 10, 01) have different changes. Hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices also show various trends. For example, rebar spot in North China decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil 05 contract decreased by 25 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet price is 2920 yuan/ton with no change. Plate billet price is 3730 yuan/ton with no change. Profits of different steel products in different regions vary, such as the East China hot - rolled coil profit increased by 7 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average pig iron output is 228.0 tons with a decrease of 0.1 tons (- 0.1%). The output of five major steel products is 823.2 tons, an increase of 3.6 tons (0.4%). The inventory of five major steel products is 1278.5 tons, an increase of 21.4 tons (1.7%). Rebar inventory continued to accumulate, while hot - rolled coil inventory decreased [1]. Demand - Building materials trading volume decreased by 0.5 tons (- 11.6%). The apparent consumption of five major steel products decreased by 7.8 tons (- 1.0%) [1]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of different iron ore powders (e.g., lower powder, PB powder) decreased, with a decline of about 0.6% - 0.7%. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 0.5 (2.9%), and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 1.5 (- 12.0%) [3]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 45.3 tons (- 1.8%), and the global shipping volume increased by 116.3 tons (3.9%). The national monthly import volume increased by 910.7 tons (8.2%) [3]. Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 tons (- 0.1%), and the 45 - port daily average desilting volume increased by 21.6 tons (6.9%) [3]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 255.7 tons (1.5%), and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 579.8 tons (6.2%) [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - Coke and coking coal futures prices fluctuated. Coke 05 contract increased by 35 yuan/ton (2.1%), and coking coal 05 contract increased by 26 yuan/ton (2.3%). The basis and spreads of different contracts also changed [6]. Supply - Coke production: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.5 tons (- 0.7%), and the daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 tons (0.2%). Coking coal production: The raw coal output decreased by 2.7 tons (- 0.34%), and the clean coal output decreased by 0.6 tons (- 0.14%) [6]. Demand - The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 tons (- 0.1%) [6]. Inventory - Coke total inventory increased by 21.5 tons (2.3%), and coking coal inventory in different sectors (e.g., coking plants, steel mills, ports) also had different changes [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Prices and Spreads - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese futures prices changed slightly. Ferrosilicon主力合约 decreased by 4.0 yuan/ton (- 0.1%), and ferromanganese主力合约 increased by 2.0 yuan/ton (0.04%). The spreads between different regions and contracts also changed [7]. Cost and Profit - Ferrosilicon production costs in different regions (e.g., Inner Mongolia, Qinghai) increased slightly, and production profits changed. Ferromanganese production costs in some regions remained stable [7]. Supply - Ferrosilicon weekly output was 9.8 tons, with a slight increase of 0.0 tons (0.1%). Ferromanganese weekly output decreased by 0.1 tons (- 0.4%) [7]. Demand - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese demand remained relatively stable. The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 tons (- 0.1%) [7]. Inventory - Ferrosilicon inventory of 60 sample enterprises increased by 0.1 tons (1.0%), and ferromanganese inventory of 63 sample enterprises increased by 0.1 tons (0.3%) [7].

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the dual-driven model of upgrading traditional industries and nurturing emerging industries, focusing on the transformation of sectors like petrochemicals and steel through digital and green technology [1][2] - Shanghai's traditional manufacturing industry has achieved an 85% coverage rate in intelligent transformation, which is expected to accelerate energy efficiency improvements and structural optimization [2] - Emerging industries such as intelligent connected new energy vehicles and low-altitude economy are prioritized, with Shanghai opening 1,200 kilometers of testing roads for autonomous vehicles, accumulating over 10 million kilometers of testing mileage [2] Group 2 - The report highlights the low-altitude economy as a new focus area, with Shanghai laying out plans in core fields like drones and eVTOL, which will enhance the collaborative effects across the industry chain [2] - The satellite internet and aerospace industries are expected to synergize with Shanghai's technological reserves in integrated circuits and artificial intelligence, creating a "space-ground integration" industrial ecosystem [2] - The ongoing industrial policy in Shanghai is projected to strengthen the foundation of the real economy, with new productive forces becoming the core driver of economic growth, benefiting the Yangtze River Delta and the national industry [2][3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The overall market is in the off - season of consumption, with low production and demand, and inventory rising from a low level. The central bank's cut in re - loan and re - discount rates boosts market confidence to some extent, and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts in the future. The short - term decline is due to the weakening of market sentiment driven by the correction in the stock market, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals. Technically, the futures price is oscillating in a narrow range of 100 yuan/ton and may face a direction selection in the short term [2]. - The demand for iron ore is in the off - season, with iron water production likely to decline seasonally. The improvement in steel apparent demand may be due to year - end rush construction. The global iron ore shipment is slightly rising but is expected to decline later due to southern hemisphere seasonal factors. The arrival volume has decreased, and port inventory is rising. Technically, the futures price is under pressure, but there may be support near the 60 - day moving average and the lower Bollinger Band [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Thread and Hot Roll - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the output of rebar from 247 sample steel mills increased slightly, the apparent demand decreased month - on - month, and the total inventory continued to rise. The total output of the five major varieties increased slightly, the inventory continued to rise, and the apparent demand decreased month - on - month [2]. - **Price Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3099 yuan/ton, down 0.86% from last week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3265 yuan/ton, down 0.73% from last week. The spot price of rebar (HRB400E 20mm, Shanghai) was 3230 yuan/ton, down 0.92% from last week; the spot price of hot - rolled coil (Q235 4.75mm, Shanghai) was 3260 yuan/ton, down 0.61% from last week [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions lightly and conduct medium - term trading. Do not chase up or kill down. Wait for the later bottom signal to be confirmed and then add positions on dips. Pay attention to whether there is a possibility of an effective downward breakthrough in the short term [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand**: The demand is in the off - season, and iron water production is likely to decline seasonally. The supply is affected by southern hemisphere seasonal factors, with the global shipment expected to decline. The arrival volume has decreased, and port inventory is rising [4]. - **Price Data**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 777.5 yuan/dry ton, down 1.33% from last week; the settlement price of the SGX iron ore continuous contract was 102 US dollars/dry ton, down 2.46% from last week. The price of Macfarlane powder (Qingdao Port) was 773 yuan/wet ton, down 2.03% from last week [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude. Patiently wait for the futures price to stabilize and then look for opportunities to go long. Do not chase up or kill down [4]. 3.3 Industry News - In late January 2026, the social inventory of five major varieties of steel in 21 cities was 717 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8 million tons, or 1.1%. It was 4 million tons less than at the beginning of the year, a decrease of 0.6%, and 17 million tons less than the same period last year, a decrease of 2.3% [6]. - Indonesian mining officials said on Tuesday that due to Indonesia's large - scale production reduction plan, local miners have suspended spot coal exports. The production quotas issued to major miners last month were 40% - 70% lower than the 2025 level [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [6] Core Viewpoints - In the off - season, the pressure of inventory accumulation in the steel sector is becoming more obvious, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the futures prices are under pressure. The resumption of production by steel mills is slow, the high shipping volume and high inventory of iron ore still pose pressure, and its futures prices are weak. The support for coal - coke replenishment is gradually weakening, but there is an expectation of supply tightening for coking coal before the Spring Festival, and the futures prices are oscillating. There are disturbances on the supply side of glass, but the oversupply situation limits the upside space of glass and soda ash futures prices. Overall, the fundamentals in the off - season are lackluster, and the futures prices are under pressure, but there is still replenishment demand before the Spring Festival, and the cost side still provides support. The sector is expected to oscillate widely at the bottom, and attention should be paid to macro - policy disturbances [1][2][3] Summary by Directory Iron Element - The inventory pressure continues to increase, there are still expectations of weather disturbances on the supply side, and the post - holiday demand is uncertain. The supply and demand on the real - world side remain to be verified, and attention should be paid to changes in market sentiment. The supply and daily consumption of scrap steel are expected to decline seasonally. As the replenishment nears completion, the overall fundamentals will gradually weaken, and the spot prices are expected to follow the prices of finished steel products [2] Carbon Element - The growth space for coke supply is limited, while the expectation of downstream steel mill复产 still exists. The coke supply - demand structure will remain healthy, but the bullish driving force in the fundamentals is also limited. The spot prices are expected to remain stable for the time being, and the futures prices are expected to follow the cost - side coking coal. As domestic coal mines approach the holiday, production will gradually decline, and the fundamentals of coking coal will remain healthy, but the bullish driving force in the fundamentals is also limited. The spot prices may oscillate before the Spring Festival, and the fluctuations in the current sentiment of the futures prices remain to be observed, and they are expected to oscillate [2] Alloys - The manganese - silicon market continues to be in a state of loose supply and demand, and the upstream has great pressure to reduce inventory. When the futures prices rise to a high level, they may face selling - hedging pressure. The futures prices of the main contract are expected to oscillate around the cost valuation. The silicon - iron market has weak supply and demand, with limited fundamental driving force. The low trading activity suppresses the upside space of the futures prices. In the long - term, the futures prices may still oscillate around the cost valuation [3] Glass and Soda Ash - There are still expectations of disturbances on the glass supply side, but the inventories of the middle and lower reaches are moderately high. From a fundamental perspective, the current supply and demand are still in an oversupply situation. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, the high inventory will suppress prices, and the prices are expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the prices will rise. The overall supply and demand of soda ash are still in an oversupply situation. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and in the long - term, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, and the price center will continue to decline, promoting capacity reduction [3] Specific Products - **Steel**: In the off - season, the pressure of inventory accumulation in the steel sector is obvious, the fundamentals lack highlights, but there is no expectation of negative feedback, and the cost side provides support. The futures prices are expected to oscillate widely. The spot market transactions are generally weak, the profitability of steel mills has slightly shrunk, the iron - water output has remained stable month - on - month, and the output of the five major steel products has slightly increased. The demand for building materials has weakened seasonally, while the demand for hot - rolled coils still has some resilience [8] - **Iron Ore**: The market sentiment has weakened, and the spot and futures prices are under pressure. Overseas mine shipments have increased month - on - month, the arrivals have continued to weaken, and the supply side is subject to weather - related disturbance expectations. The iron - water output has slightly decreased month - on - month, and the steel mills' replenishment has accelerated. The port inventory has continued to increase, and the overall inventory pressure is still accumulating [8][9] - **Scrap Steel**: The supply and demand both decline seasonally, and the price in East China has increased slightly. The supply and daily consumption are expected to decline seasonally. As the replenishment nears completion, the overall fundamentals will gradually weaken, and the spot prices are expected to follow the finished steel products. The arrival volume of steel mills will decline seasonally, the daily consumption of electric furnaces and blast furnaces will decrease, and the inventory of steel enterprises has increased [10] - **Coke**: The fundamentals have limited changes, and the futures prices remain oscillating. The supply growth space is limited, and the downstream steel mill复产 expectation still exists. The supply - demand structure will remain healthy, but the bullish driving force in the fundamentals is also limited. The spot prices are expected to remain stable, and the futures prices are expected to follow the cost - side coking coal [11][13] - **Coking Coal**: The online auctions show a mixed trend of rising and falling, and the futures prices oscillate. The domestic coal mine production will gradually decline before the holiday, and the fundamentals will remain healthy, but the bullish driving force in the fundamentals is also limited. The spot prices may oscillate before the Spring Festival, and the fluctuations in the current sentiment of the futures prices remain to be observed, and they are expected to oscillate [14] - **Glass**: As the holiday approaches, the demand weakens, and the real - world contradictions are limited. The supply may be disturbed, but the inventories of the middle and lower reaches are moderately high, and the current supply and demand are still in an oversupply situation. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress prices [15] - **Soda Ash**: The daily production remains at a high level, and the prices oscillate. The overall supply and demand are still in an oversupply situation. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and in the long - term, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, and the price center will continue to decline, promoting capacity reduction [15][18] - **Manganese - Silicon**: The inventory pressure remains high, and the prices fluctuate around the cost. The market continues to be in a state of loose supply and demand, and the upstream has great pressure to reduce inventory. The futures prices of the main contract are expected to oscillate around the cost valuation, and attention should be paid to the adjustment range of raw material prices and the production - control efforts of manufacturers [19] - **Silicon - Iron**: The trading volume is gradually decreasing, and the upside of the futures prices is under pressure. The market has weak supply and demand, with limited fundamental driving force. The low trading activity before the holiday suppresses the upside space of the futures prices. The futures prices are expected to oscillate around the cost valuation, and attention should be paid to the adjustment range of semi - coke prices and settlement electricity prices, as well as the production - control trends in the main production areas [21]

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 晨会纪要 2026 年 2 月 4 日 联系人：王竣冬 期货从业资格：F3024685 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 研究咨询电话： 0531-81678626 客服电话： 400-618-6767 公司网址： www.ztqh.com 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 | 4 / 7 / 7 / 4 | | 卒」卒4日听刊 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 趋势空头 | 農荡偏空 | 農药 | 農荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | | に | 橡胶 | 中证1000指数期货 | | | | 红枣 | 自糖 | 燃油 | | | | 铁矿石 | 多晶硅 | 三十债 | | | | 甲醇 | 棉纱 | 十债 | | | | РУС | 尿素 | 上证50股指期货 | | | | 塑料 | 棉花 | 二债 | | | | 生猪 | 胶版印刷纸 | 沪深300股指期货 | | | | 原油 | 玉米 | 五债 | | | | 液化石油气 | 乙二醇 | 沥青 | | | ...