转载请注明央视财经 编辑：令文芳 中国社科院日本研究所助理研究员 孟明铭：中方对日本实施的出口管制措施，对日本造成的影响可能 会体现在以下三个方面。第一是直接影响日本的军事工业，其制造、舰船、导弹等先进装备所需的关键 材料，比如合金和稀土，均被列入了管制清单，包括日本从美国引进的军事装备，也会因依赖中国的稀 土或材料而遭到管制，这将有效阻止日本军工业的发展。第二点是在日本整体经济方面，受管制的稀土 和材料，是日本先进制造业的核心材料，日本在这方面高度依赖中国，若全面限制出口，那么日本的制 造业可能面临供应链断裂的风险，将会遭遇巨大的经济损失和经济衰退风险。第三个层面应该是社会层 面，中方采取的管制措施已经对日本社会民心造成了明显的冲击。日本舆论普遍担忧中日关系的持续恶 化，将对日本经济造成更多不确定性。越来越多的日本经济界人士和有识之士也出来发声，呼吁日本政 府采取有效措施扭转目前的局面。中方的出口管制公告有效精准打击了日本军工业，有力阻止了日 本"再军事化"的进程，是维护国家核心利益和维护地区安全的正义合理之举。 （央视财经《经济信息联播》）日本首相高市早苗近期一系列加速推动军备扩张的举动，不但引发日本 国 ...

#中国断供日本军事工业遭斩首#【中国军号：#中国为何对日发出严厉管制禁令#？防止日本军国主义借 尸还魂】#中国制裁下日本军事没米下锅# 1月6日，商务部发布2026年第一号公告，明确加强对日本两 用物项出口管制，核心内容可概括为三个"禁止"：禁止所有两用物项对日本军事用户出口；禁止对日本 军事用途出口；禁止对一切有助于提升日本军事实力的其他最终用户及用途出口。 这份清单的详尽程度与发布时机表明，中方的管制绝非象征性表态，而是经过周密评估、具有明确针对 性的系统性行动。它既符合国际通行的防扩散原则，也清晰传递出一个信号：中国将以实际行动，阻断 日本军国主义复活的技术可能。 【断供即废功！ 尖端装备制造能力遭精准狙击 】 本次出口管制措施，并非泛化的经济制裁，而是对日本军事工业体系的一场"外科手术式"的精准打击， 矛头直指其核心命脉——高性能材料供应链。 举个具体例子，中国掌控全球85%的钐钴磁体产量，钐钴永磁体因其高磁能积和优异的耐高温性能，被 广泛应用于卫星姿态控制、航天器惯性导航、雷达波导管聚焦装置等。美国国防部报告曾指出，稀土永 磁体是F-35战斗机、弗吉尼亚级潜艇、战斧导弹及多种雷达系统的关键部件。并且 ...

根据会议期间分享的信息，已与相关实体达成6项框架协议，在4年内产生了价值28亿里亚尔（约合7.46 亿美元）的采购订单。这些订单涵盖弹药、系统、设备、通信和军事装置等领域。 中东报11月11日报道，沙特军事工业总局 (GAMI) 宣布，到 2024 年底，沙特的军事开支本地化率提高 到 24.89%。沙特计划到2030年本地化率超过50%。 该机构推出"国家军事工业平台"，旨在提高透明度并加快程序周期，为投资者和供应商提供计划、指南 和说明。 该消息是在利雅得举行的年度军事工业部门会议上宣布。该机构表示，启动军事采购框架协议是为了让 受益实体能够直接从工业投资者那里采购。该机制旨在提升支出效率，提高本地化率，改善产品和服务 质量，统一价格，节省采购流程时间，并在规定的价格范围内直接下达采购订单，期限最长可达七年。 ...

Group 1: Trade Tensions and Tariffs - The US has imposed tariffs ranging from 25% to 100% on various Chinese goods, including electric vehicles and solar panels, since September[1] - Trump announced a 100% additional tariff on Chinese imports effective November 1, 2025, alongside export controls on key software[4] - The US has added 23 Chinese companies, including Fudan Microelectronics, to its entity list, tightening technology exports in semiconductor and AI sectors[1] Group 2: Strategic Resources and Industries - Shipping and rare earths are central to the US-China competition, impacting global trade and military capabilities[2] - The US relies heavily on rare earth imports for its high-tech and military industries, making China's export controls critical[2] - China has implemented new regulations on rare earth exports, requiring licenses for materials with ≥0.1% heavy rare earth content[4] Group 3: Market Implications - A-shares may experience slight fluctuations but maintain an upward trend, with a shift in market style expected[6] - Short-term uncertainty is likely to lower risk appetite for Chinese assets, prompting investors to reassess market valuations[6] - The 10-year government bond yield is projected to fluctuate between 1.65% and 1.85% in the fourth quarter, reflecting mixed economic pressures[7] Group 4: Future Outlook - The intensity of US-China competition is expected to rise, with Trump potentially using trade tensions to address internal pressures ahead of the 2026 midterm elections[8] - China's macroeconomic policy will focus on stabilizing employment and market expectations while enhancing domestic demand[8] - The potential for a "weak dollar" scenario may arise due to the fluctuating nature of US tariffs and Federal Reserve policies[7]

Core Insights - The Prime Minister of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Nermin Nikšić, discussed key political and economic issues affecting citizens' lives and the economy, emphasizing the need for a balance between populist pressures and fiscal realities [1][2] Group 1: Social Security Contributions - The government implemented the first phase of a social security contribution reduction plan on July 1, but this has not benefited all employees, as employers did not increase wages despite the reduction [1] - The pension insurance revenue for the federal government has decreased by approximately 40 million marks in the last two months, which is being covered by the government budget [1] - The second phase of the reduction plan will not be implemented without proper preparation [1] Group 2: Infrastructure Development - The construction of the 5C highway has been paused near Mostar due to a decision to prohibit the disposal of state property, which is classified as military property [1] - This pause not only hinders the development of the 5C corridor but also affects the growth of local communities [1] Group 3: Military Industry Development - The military industry is a key sector for the economy of Bosnia and Herzegovina, with the potential to drive the development of other supporting industries [2] - The government is committed to supporting the military industry and creating an environment to attract further investments [2]

Group 1 - The core of the agreement is a 15% tariff on EU goods exported to the US, along with a commitment from the EU to invest an additional $600 billion in the US and purchase $750 billion worth of US energy products [1][3][4] - The agreement is perceived by some European leaders as a one-sided concession rather than a mutually beneficial trade cooperation, with criticism from figures like Bernd Lange and Marine Le Pen highlighting its negative implications for the EU [1][6][7] - The US maintains a 50% global tariff on steel and aluminum, while the EU's interpretation suggests that pharmaceuticals will also be subject to the 15% tariff, which could impact EU exports significantly [4][5] Group 2 - The agreement has been met with cautious optimism from some US officials, who view it as a significant opening of the EU market, but there is a notable lack of enthusiasm from European leaders [5][6] - European media and business sectors have expressed strong criticism, arguing that the agreement could harm local employment and industry, with concerns about the imbalance in trade terms [6][7] - The new tariff structure represents a significant increase from previous averages, with the EU's average tariff on US goods being 1.32% compared to the newly established 15% [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concepts of "elastic society" and "ultra-stable structure" to explain the long-term stability and stagnation of traditional Chinese society, highlighting their differences in perspective, methodology, and conclusions [1][4]. Group 1: Elastic Society - The "elastic society" theory defines traditional Chinese society as having a "premature yet immature" elastic structure, capable of absorbing transformative energy through its diverse economic base and complex control systems, but unable to break free from established frameworks [1][3]. - This theory emphasizes the resilience of the multi-faceted structure, where new and old factors coexist, showcasing class conflicts and interactions between local gentry and state power, as well as the interplay of economic drivers and extra-economic forces [1][3]. - The theory also points out that while there are gradual internal adjustments, the society remains locked within its original structure, unable to achieve a fundamental transformation [4][22]. Group 2: Ultra-Stable Structure - The "ultra-stable structure" concept posits that traditional Chinese society, from the Qin to the Qing dynasties, exhibited a system characterized by periodic oscillations, where upheavals like dynastic changes and peasant uprisings occurred frequently but did not disrupt the deep structural stability [1][3]. - This structure is marked by a self-repair mechanism, where each upheaval leads to a restoration of the old political, economic, and ideological order, indicating a resistance to fundamental change [3][4]. - The theory highlights the rigidity of the system, where ideological and technological stagnation, along with policies that suppress commercial capital accumulation, hinder social progress [3][4]. Group 3: Comparison of Theories - Both theories differ in their historical explanatory focus, with the "elastic society" emphasizing micro-level resilience and adaptability, while the "ultra-stable structure" underscores macro-level systemic rigidity [4][5]. - The theories are complementary, with the "elastic society" providing a micro-foundation for the "ultra-stable structure," illustrating the tension between dynamic adjustments and systemic locks [4][5]. - The "elastic society" reveals the contradictions of absorbing transformative energy while being constrained by traditional norms, while the "ultra-stable structure" explains the deep mechanisms resisting qualitative change [4][5]. Group 4: Urban Types and Historical Context - The article contrasts two types of cities: "Su-Hang" and "Kaifeng," interpreting them through the lenses of the two theories, where "Su-Hang" embodies characteristics of an elastic society and "Kaifeng" exemplifies an ultra-stable structure [6][7]. - "Su-Hang" cities experienced economic expansion and a flexible interaction between local autonomy and central authority, while "Kaifeng" cities maintained a singular economic structure, lacking elasticity and remaining dependent on agricultural foundations [6][7]. - The geographical and historical contexts of these cities illustrate the broader dynamics of Chinese civilization, with the Jiangnan region favoring an elastic society and the Central Plains leaning towards an ultra-stable structure [7][8]. Group 5: Industrial Revolution and Response - The article discusses how the Industrial Revolution posed a challenge to the ultra-stable structure, leading to a breakdown of traditional systems through external and internal forces [11][12]. - The response to this disruption was marked by the "Self-Strengthening Movement," which emerged from the elastic society's resilience, indicating a shift towards modernization despite the constraints of the ultra-stable structure [12][14]. - The movement highlighted the tension between traditional structures and emerging capitalist dynamics, revealing the limitations of the elastic society in achieving a comprehensive transformation [21][24].

Group 1 - The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that the Russian military conducted strikes on military industrial facilities and military airports in Kyiv, Ukraine [1]

Core Viewpoint - Indonesia's announcement to jointly develop nickel mining projects with the United States has become a focal point in international discourse, reflecting the strategic maneuvering of resource-rich countries caught between the U.S. and China [1][3]. Group 1: Economic and Strategic Implications - The decision to use nickel as a bargaining chip in negotiations with the U.S. indicates Indonesia's response to the dual pressures of technological revolution and geopolitical challenges faced by resource-exporting countries [3]. - Nickel's significance is increasingly highlighted in the context of international competition, particularly in the production of high-nickel ternary materials essential for electric vehicle batteries [3][5]. - Indonesia possesses 20% of the world's nickel reserves, yet its domestic smelting capacity heavily relies on Chinese investments, leading to a dilemma between resource sovereignty and economic development [5][11]. Group 2: Risks and Concerns - The shift towards U.S. collaboration poses risks, as existing nickel smelting projects in Indonesia may face challenges in adapting to new technical standards and environmental regulations, potentially disrupting the established Chinese technology framework [8][9]. - Indonesian business leaders express concerns that this abrupt diplomatic shift could undermine a decade's worth of industrial development [9]. - The potential conflict between U.S. and Chinese technological standards raises questions about the long-term viability of Indonesia's nickel industry if it pivots towards American investments [11]. Group 3: Broader Context and Future Outlook - The dynamics of the nickel mining negotiations reflect a broader trend of resource nationalism, which may reshape global supply chain structures, as seen in the EU's Critical Raw Materials Act and the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act [15]. - The future trajectory of the nickel mining negotiations will depend on multiple variables, including whether the U.S. will accept nickel cooperation as a substitute for tariff threats, given Indonesia's current smelting capabilities [15]. - The situation serves as a warning to all resource-exporting countries that natural resource endowments must be transformed into genuine industrial competitiveness to gain leverage in great power rivalries [15][17].

Core Viewpoint - The article argues that the EU's rapid military rearmament may lead to a historical mistake, potentially resulting in a "lose-lose" situation for Europe [1][3]. Group 1: Military Spending and Strategy - European policymakers are increasingly adopting a unified strategy to increase military spending to counter the perceived threat from Russia and reduce dependence on the US, aiming to solidify Europe's status as a major power [3]. - The expectation that significant investment in the military will address geopolitical vulnerabilities and economic stagnation is viewed as potentially misguided [3]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The focus on military spending may strain national budgets, diverting funds from social programs and infrastructure development, which could lead to negative consequences for overall societal progress [3]. - The article suggests that the current trajectory will not lead to a "military Keynesianism" that benefits society, nor will it establish a defense strategy that aligns with Europe's ambitions as a major power [3]. Group 3: NATO Spending Goals - At the NATO summit, member countries agreed to increase annual defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035, but some nations, like Spain, face challenges in meeting this target [4]. - Spain's resistance to increasing military spending is influenced by its anti-war tradition and the need to prioritize resources for its citizens over unclear military policies [4].