证券研究报告 | 2025年12月29日 2025年12月30日 固收+系列报告之九 公募 REITs2026 年投资展望：攻守之道与价值掘金 市场复盘：自首批公募 REITs 2021 年上市以来，我国公募 REITs 一级认购 倍数呈现显著波动走势，整体波动由产品供给稀缺性、市场情绪及资产类型 收益预期共同驱动。二级市场收益表现介于沪深 300 与中证全债之间，与中 证转债的股债混合属性形成互补，不同年份收益位次因底层资产、利率、政 策及市场环境差异而显著分化。从长期特征看，REITs 波动率低于沪深 300 和中证转债，高于中证全债，且与其他资产收益相关度低，兼具债性稳定与 股性弹性，适合平衡组合波动。 机构配置：当前公募 REITs 流通盘的持有主体高度集中，机构投资者主导， 券商自营是绝对主力，占比达 51.3%；其次是保险资金（19.9%）和产业资本 （13.6%），以上三类机构投资者合计占比超 84%；私募基金（5.5%）、信托 （3.6%）、其他资管（3.7%）等占比相对较低，个人投资者、公募基金、券 商资管、银行理财的持有比例均不足 1%。不同类型公募 REITs 的流通盘持有 人结构呈现显 ...

Core Viewpoint - The integration of investment in physical assets and human capital is a significant enhancement of China's investment philosophy, aimed at optimizing investment structure and stimulating economic growth during the high-quality development phase [1] Group 1: Current Economic Context - China's economy is undergoing a critical transition in development methods, economic structure optimization, and growth momentum conversion, making the integration of investment in physical and human capital highly relevant and urgent [2] - Investment in both physical and human capital is essential for overcoming key technological bottlenecks and achieving self-reliance in technology, requiring funding for both infrastructure and talent development [2] - The shift from traditional comparative advantages to new advantages based on quality and brand necessitates a collaborative approach to investment in physical and human capital for industrial transformation and upgrading [3] Group 2: Domestic Circulation and Consumption - Enhancing human capital through education and skills training directly increases labor income, thereby boosting consumer confidence and laying a solid foundation for expanding consumption [3] - A strong domestic consumption market encourages enterprises to invest in technology and brand development, creating a dynamic balance between supply and demand [3] Group 3: Social Equity and Common Prosperity - Investment in infrastructure and public services is crucial for achieving social equity and promoting common prosperity, while human capital investment plays a significant role in reducing income disparities [4] - Developing a high-quality labor force through human capital investment enhances overall productivity and innovation capabilities, contributing to a larger and more equitably distributed economic "cake" [4] Group 4: Systematic Approach to Investment - The relationship between investment in physical and human capital is inherently unified, requiring a systematic approach to optimize the structure of existing capital and promote a virtuous cycle of economic development and improved livelihoods [5] - Both forms of investment are interdependent; physical capital provides the platform for human capital to realize its value, while human capital enhances the effectiveness and technological advancement of physical capital [5] Group 5: Long-term Mechanisms and Policy Framework - Establishing long-term mechanisms to improve the quality and efficiency of investments in both physical and human capital is essential for sustainable economic growth [8] - Coordinated development strategies should be integrated into national economic and social development plans, ensuring that policies for human capital development accompany industrial policies [8] - A collaborative evaluation system should be established to assess the contribution of human capital to the efficiency of physical capital, preventing disconnection between the two [8] Group 6: Investment Structure Optimization - Maintaining a reasonable scale of physical capital investment while optimizing investment layout is crucial, with increased focus on new infrastructure and advanced manufacturing [9] - Precision and effectiveness in human capital investment should be enhanced, with targeted training programs to meet the demands of new productive forces [9] - Encouraging diverse stakeholders through fiscal and financial policies can stimulate investment in advanced equipment and employee training [9] Group 7: Comprehensive Policy System - A comprehensive policy framework should address the entire lifecycle of human capital needs, from early childhood education to elderly care, ensuring continuous accumulation and quality improvement of human capital [10] - Investments should focus on enhancing educational quality, improving labor market matching, and providing adequate healthcare and housing support [10]

Group 1: Infrastructure Development - The construction project of the East Trading Area in Jinhua City, Zhejiang Province, has been included in the National Development and Reform Commission's emergency infrastructure project library, which will enhance the city's supply capacity and improve the logistics hub system in the Yangtze River Delta region [2] - The supergravity centrifuge simulation and experimental device in Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, is a major national scientific infrastructure that creates a supergravity field for critical experiments [4] - Wuhu City in Anhui Province is accelerating the construction of computing power infrastructure, leveraging its position within one of the top ten data center clusters in China and the national "East Data West Computing" project [6] Group 2: New Infrastructure Initiatives - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the acceleration of new infrastructure construction, while the "15th Five-Year Plan" introduces the concept of "appropriate advance" in infrastructure development [7] - New infrastructure includes advancements in information, integration, and innovation, which are crucial for the development of the digital economy and the transformation of traditional industries [7][8] - The government aims to enhance public services and promote common prosperity through new infrastructure, which is seen as a vital measure to stimulate domestic demand [9] Group 3: Strategic Planning and Implementation - The construction of new infrastructure requires careful planning and orderly implementation, balancing supply and demand, and addressing structural contradictions in existing infrastructure [10][11] - "Appropriate advance" in infrastructure development reflects the need to match infrastructure with economic and social development levels while ensuring it leads and supports future growth [11] - The government, society, and market must collaborate to effectively implement new infrastructure projects, encouraging private investment and innovation [14]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of promoting the sustainable, healthy, and high-quality development of the private economy as a major long-term policy of the state [1] - As of July 4, there are 11,842 projects being promoted to private capital with a total investment of 10.19 trillion yuan [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has organized the introduction of over 3,200 new projects to private capital, involving a total investment exceeding 3 trillion yuan, focusing on key areas such as transportation, energy, and new infrastructure [3][4] Group 2 - The implementation of the "Private Economy Promotion Law" since May 20 aims to ensure fair competition and promote investment financing, allowing private economic organizations to participate equally in various sectors [3] - The number of items in the "Market Access Negative List (2025 Edition)" has been reduced from 117 to 106, further relaxing market access restrictions [4] - Local governments have recently published project lists for private capital, with Beijing releasing 119 key projects totaling approximately 124.4 billion yuan, and Henan Province announcing 75 major projects with a total investment of 33 billion yuan [5][6] Group 3 - The current wave of project promotion signals a deepening of market-oriented reforms and optimization of resource allocation, aiming to attract private enterprises to enhance project construction and operational efficiency [7] - The focus on attracting private capital is particularly significant in areas such as technological innovation and new infrastructure, where private investment is seen as a crucial driver for industrial upgrading and high-quality economic development [7]

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of the "Private Economy Promotion Law" marks a significant milestone in the development of the private economy in China, establishing a legal framework to support and protect private enterprises, ensuring fair competition and promoting high-quality development [5][6]. Group 1: Legislative Framework - The "Private Economy Promotion Law" consists of 9 chapters and 78 articles, focusing on fair competition, investment financing, technological innovation, operational regulation, service guarantees, and rights protection [5]. - This law is the first to explicitly state the legal status of the private economy and emphasizes the long-term commitment of the state to support its development [6]. Group 2: Implementation and Support Mechanisms - Various supporting systems are being accelerated, including investment financing promotion, technological innovation, service guarantees, and rights protection [2][9]. - The National Development and Reform Commission is working on a long-term mechanism for private enterprises to participate in major national projects, with an investment scale of approximately 3 trillion yuan in key areas such as transportation, energy, and urban infrastructure [4][10]. Group 3: Administrative Oversight - The Ministry of Justice is establishing a mechanism for handling complaints about administrative law violations, aiming to address issues such as arbitrary fees and inspections [4][8]. - The law includes provisions to regulate administrative enforcement behaviors, ensuring that enterprises can report violations effectively [7][8]. Group 4: Financial Support for Private Enterprises - Over the past five years, the average growth rate of loans to private enterprises has been 1.1 percentage points higher than that of other loans, with a loan balance of 76.07 trillion yuan as of Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.41% [12][13]. - The financial regulatory authority is focusing on targeted financial services for key sectors and is promoting innovative financing methods to support technology-driven enterprises [13][14]. Group 5: Future Directions - The government is committed to further enhancing the legal and institutional framework to support the private economy, with ongoing efforts to refine policies and regulations [9][11]. - The focus will also be on improving the business environment for private enterprises, ensuring their rights and interests are protected during the implementation of the law [11].