1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the past 4 weeks, the domestic stock and bond markets both rose slightly, mainly due to the marginal relaxation of the capital market in October, with a slight decline in risk appetite and no unexpected overall trend [2]. - Looking ahead to November, profits will continue to run smoothly. After a slight improvement in the capital market at the beginning of the month, the risk of marginal convergence of macro - liquidity is increasing, and risk appetite is likely to continue to decline. The trend of bond - equity ratio favoring bonds and equity style favoring value remains unchanged. A combination of long - term bonds and value stocks is recommended [2][14][41]. - China's profit cycle may have entered a low - level narrow - range oscillation stage since the fourth quarter of last year. The private sector debt growth rate is introduced as a supplementary variable to proxy for profit, and currently, the further downward space of this data is limited [3]. - The domestic part of macro - liquidity corresponds to policies. In the long run, policies are endogenous and should conform to the economic cycle. China's policy goals of stabilizing the macro - leverage ratio and financial institutions benefiting the real economy have remained stable [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1全社会债务情况 - As of the end of September, China's total social debt balance was 500.1 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 8.4%, down from the previous value of 8.8% [16]. - At the end of September, the debt balance of financial institutions (inter - bank) was 91.5 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 6.4%, down from the previous value of 8.0% [18]. - At the end of September, the debt balance of the real sector was 408.6 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 8.8%, down from the previous value of 8.9%. Among them, the household debt balance was 81.9 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 2.2%; the government debt balance was 117.1 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 14.5%; the non - financial enterprise debt balance was 209.7 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 8.5% [21][23]. - In September, the profit of industrial enterprises increased by 21.6% year - on - year, and the profit of state - owned enterprises increased by 7.5% year - on - year [26]. 3.2金融机构资产负债详解 - As of the end of September, the debt balance of broad financial institutions was 164.9 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 5.9%, down from the previous value of 6.1%. Among them, the bank debt balance was 135.5 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 7.1%; the non - bank financial institution debt balance was 29.4 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 0.8% [29]. - In September, the three quantitative indicators of monetary policy (base money balance growth rate, financial institution debt growth rate, and excess reserve ratio) showed two declines and one increase. Monetary policy continued to converge marginally in September, slightly relaxed in October, and the probability of further convergence remains high [7][14][31]. - The newly constructed NM2 has a similar trend to M2 but a lower absolute level since 2017. The recent situation indicates that the probability of further marginal convergence of monetary policy is still large [38]. 3.3资产配置 - In the past 4 weeks, the domestic stock and bond markets both rose slightly. Looking ahead to November, a combination of long - term bonds and value stocks is recommended [2][41]. - In September, the year - on - year growth rate of bank bond investment balance was 18.8%, lower than the previous value of 19.6%. The growth rate of the central bank and banks' total foreign asset balance was 3.6%, higher than the previous value of 3.4% [41][42]. - It is expected that the real economic growth rate of the United States will decline this year, inflation will remain high, and the nominal economic growth rate will decrease. The debt growth rate of the US real sector is expected to remain stable at around 3.4%. If the valuation of the US technology field is re - evaluated, global funds may flow from the US to China [15][42].

Core Insights - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange (SZSE) companies demonstrated strong performance in Q3 2025, with both revenue and net profit showing year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth, indicating a trend towards high-quality development [1][2][7] Financial Performance - SZSE companies achieved a total revenue of 15.72 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.31%, and a net profit of 903.02 billion yuan, up 9.69% year-on-year [1] - 2,169 companies reported profits, representing 75.34% of the total, with 207 companies (9.54% of profitable companies) experiencing profit growth exceeding 100% [1] Sector Highlights - The main board showed resilience while the ChiNext board exhibited high growth characteristics, with revenues of 12.47 trillion yuan and 3.25 trillion yuan respectively, and net profits of 658.36 billion yuan and 244.66 billion yuan [2] - The electronics sector reported revenues of 1.59 trillion yuan, a 15.03% increase, and net profits of 791.22 billion yuan, up 32.12% year-on-year, benefiting from AI computing power and semiconductor demand [2][3] - The power equipment industry achieved revenues of 1.32 trillion yuan, a 10% increase, and net profits of 946.09 billion yuan, up 29.53% year-on-year, supported by national policies for new power systems [3] - The non-bank financial sector saw revenues of 213.58 billion yuan, a 10.67% increase, and net profits of 60.85 billion yuan, up 49.03% year-on-year, with brokerage firms showing significant performance [4] Innovation and R&D - SZSE companies increased R&D expenditures to 518.01 billion yuan, a 6.20% rise, with a research intensity of 3.29% [5][6] - 507 companies announced mid-term cash dividend plans totaling 129.11 billion yuan, doubling from the previous year, alongside increased share buybacks and holdings [6] Future Outlook - The strong performance and internal growth dynamics of SZSE companies lay a solid foundation for future high-quality development, with expectations for continued capital market contributions to the real economy [7]

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China released financial data for the first three quarters, revealing a significant increase in RMB deposits, with a total increase of 22.71 trillion yuan [1] - The phenomenon of "deposit migration" is attributed to residents reallocating their savings based on changes in asset return rates, rather than a straightforward movement into the stock market [1][2] - Non-bank financial institutions saw a notable increase in deposits, primarily due to the rise in time deposits and increased holdings of interbank certificates of deposit [1][2] Group 1: Deposit Trends - In the first three quarters, deposits from non-bank financial institutions increased by 4.81 trillion yuan, but there was a significant drop in September compared to previous months [1] - By the end of September, household deposits grew by 12.73 trillion yuan, a substantial increase from 9.77 trillion yuan at the end of August [1] - The earlier assumption that the increase in non-bank deposits indicated a shift of household funds into the stock market was deemed overly simplistic, as September data showed a rebound in household deposits [2] Group 2: Financial Institution Insights - Non-bank deposits are not solely related to margin deposits but include various financial institutions holding interbank certificates of deposit [2] - Banks are expanding their liabilities through non-bank deposits, particularly during periods of high government bond issuance, which has been a trend in July and August [3] - Some banks, especially local banks, have significantly increased their interbank deposits to meet funding needs during this period [3] Group 3: Wealth Management Products - The stock of bank wealth management products saw a seasonal decline at the end of September, decreasing by 1284.71 billion yuan to 30.82 trillion yuan [4] - Sales of equity-linked products have increased but have not experienced explosive growth, indicating a stable market environment [5] - The proportion of index-linked products in the structure of purchased equity-linked funds is relatively high, while direct investments in specific stock market sectors are less popular [6]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Since 2024, the number of new bond - issuing industrial entities has significantly increased under the strict supervision of urban investment bonds. The new industrial entities from January 1 to August 26, 2025, are mainly concentrated in low - to - middle administrative levels, with over half of them having an AA+ rating and mostly located in economically developed provinces. The marginal supply increment of industrial bonds brought by these new entities is difficult to substantially alleviate the shortage of credit bond assets [1][2]. - Newly - issued bonds of new industrial entities often have an excess spread at the initial listing stage due to liquidity and market cognitive differences, and the excess spread tends to narrow to varying degrees after listing. It is recommended to select bonds from industries with relatively good prosperity (such as social services) and focus on bonds issued by urban investment subsidiaries [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Newly - Issued Bond Industrial Entities Inventory - **Quantity change**: Since the second half of 2023, under the strict supervision of urban investment bonds, the number of new bond - issuing industrial entities has increased. In 2024, there were 133 new industrial bond - issuing entities, and from January 1 to August 26, 2025, 191 industrial entities entered the capital market for bond financing. The number of new industrial bond - issuing entities from January to July 2025 showed a fluctuating upward trend, with 41 entities in July alone [1][4]. - **Administrative level**: Among the 191 new industrial bond - issuing entities from January 1 to August 26, 2025, 63 were district - level state - owned enterprises and 62 were prefecture - level state - owned enterprises, showing a concentration in low - to - middle administrative levels. The 63 new district - level industrial entities were mostly concentrated in economically developed provinces such as Shandong, Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Jiangsu [8]. - **Subject rating**: Among the new industrial bond - issuing entities from January 1 to August 26, 2025, 103 had an AA+ rating, accounting for 54%, followed by 52 with an AA rating and 31 with an AAA rating, mainly medium - and low - credit - rated entities [8]. - **Industry distribution**: The top five industries with the largest number of new industrial bond - issuing entities from January 1 to August 26, 2025, were comprehensive (47), social services (31), building decoration (24), non - bank finance (18), and real estate (10) [13]. - **Regional distribution**: New industrial bond - issuing entities were mostly concentrated in economically developed provinces such as Shandong (30), Jiangsu (24), Guangdong (17), and Zhejiang (17) [13]. - **Asset scale**: Most of the industrial entities that first appeared in the bond market in 2025 were small - scale. Among the 191 new industrial bond - issuing entities from January 1 to August 26, 2025, 47% had a total asset scale of less than 100 million yuan, and 49% had a net asset scale of less than 50 million yuan. Among the 81 industrial entities with a total asset scale of less than 100 million yuan, 32 were subsidiaries of urban investment companies [17]. - **Bond issuance scale and use of funds**: The total issuance scale of bonds issued by new industrial entities from January 1 to August 26, 2025, was 13.78 billion yuan, mainly private placement corporate bonds. The funds were mainly used to repay interest - bearing debts (8.08 billion yuan, accounting for 59%), and some were used for project construction, supplementary working capital, and other purposes [20]. - **Ways for urban investment entities to increase bond quotas**: Bond - financing - restricted urban investment entities usually use subsidiaries as issuers to try to increase bond quotas, mainly by injecting assets into existing subsidiaries or stripping urban investment - related businesses. The former is the preferred method, but the single - bond quota of urban investment subsidiaries is usually small [23]. 3.2 How to Evaluate the Investment Value of New Industrial Entities - **Value discovery process**: In the first five trading days after the listing of bonds issued by new industrial entities, the excess spread fluctuated little and showed no obvious trend. As time passed, the market's perception of new industrial entities gradually converged, and the liquidity premium and risk premium at the initial listing stage mostly narrowed significantly [3][26]. - **Overview of major industries of new industrial entities**: - **Building industry**: The industry is currently in a state of low prosperity. In 2024, the construction and completion areas decreased year - on - year. In July 2025, the PMI and its sub - indicators were at a low level. Although the "anti - involution" initiative was put forward, it is difficult to significantly boost the bargaining power of construction enterprises in the short term, and the subsequent marginal improvement needs attention [30][31]. - **Social services**: The number of domestic tourists and tourism revenue have been continuously rising. The main business of social service issuers is mainly related to tourism. With the improvement of the modern tourism system, tourism will play a more prominent role in promoting economic development [35]. - **Real estate**: Housing prices and investment are at a low level. In July 2025, the prices of new and second - hand houses in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased year - on - year, and real estate development investment also declined. Policy support may be the key variable for the real estate market [37]. 3.3 Investment Recommendations - Focus on new bond - issuing industrial entities in the future, as they often have an excess spread at the initial listing stage, which tends to narrow over time. - Select bonds from industries with relatively good prosperity, such as social services. - Pay attention to bonds issued by urban investment subsidiaries, as their credit risks are relatively controllable [39].

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the net inflow and outflow of funds across various industries, indicating a significant divergence in market performance among sectors, with non-ferrous metals seeing the highest inflow and electronics experiencing the largest outflow [1][2]. Industry Summary Net Inflow Industries - Non-ferrous metals led with a net inflow of 3.794 billion yuan, a price increase of 2.10%, and a trading volume increase of 50.61% compared to the previous trading day [1]. - Other industries with positive net inflows include: - Non-bank financials: 0.897 billion yuan, price increase of 0.33%, trading volume increase of 15.80% [1]. - Food and beverage: 0.605 billion yuan, price increase of 0.73%, trading volume increase of 8.18% [1]. - Transportation: 0.422 billion yuan, price increase of 0.90%, trading volume decrease of 0.19% [1]. - Real estate: 0.248 billion yuan, price increase of 0.48%, trading volume decrease of 9.60% [1]. Net Outflow Industries - The electronics industry faced the largest net outflow of 8.341 billion yuan, with a price decrease of 0.49% and a trading volume decrease of 13.21% [2]. - Other industries with significant net outflows include: - Computer: 4.375 billion yuan, price decrease of 43.75%, trading volume increase of 2.01% [2]. - Communication: 2.701 billion yuan, price decrease of 0.31%, trading volume decrease of 4.02% [2]. - Machinery: 2.451 billion yuan, price decrease of 24.51%, trading volume decrease of 4.02% [2]. - Automotive: 2.389 billion yuan, price decrease of 0.17%, trading volume decrease of 17.13% [2].

Core Viewpoint - The financial data for April indicates a significant impact on credit due to external factors, with bills becoming a major support for credit growth [2][6]. Group 1: Credit and Loans - New RMB loans in April amounted to 280 billion, a decrease of 450 billion year-on-year, falling short of market expectations [7][11]. - The corporate sector showed a more pronounced impact from tariffs, with corporate loans increasing by 610 billion, down from 860 billion year-on-year [8]. - Bills financing accounted for 297.9% of the new credit in April, highlighting its critical role in supporting credit growth [8][13]. Group 2: Deposits - Total RMB deposits decreased by 440 billion in April, with significant changes in the structure, particularly in non-bank financial institutions which saw an increase of 1.57 trillion [12]. - The increase in non-bank financial deposits is attributed to a shift in investment preferences due to volatility in the bond market [12]. Group 3: Social Financing - Social financing increased by 1.16 trillion in April, with a growth rate of 8.7%, marking a significant rise due to a low base effect [13]. - Government bonds played a crucial role, with new issuance reaching 9.76 trillion, a year-on-year increase of approximately 1.07 trillion [13]. Group 4: Conclusions and Implications - The April data reflects a seasonal decline in credit, exacerbated by tariff impacts, with expectations of a potential decline in growth rates as base effects fade [6][17]. - The central bank is responding by increasing structural relending quotas to stimulate credit demand in the service sector [17].

Core Insights - The ESG disclosure rate for A-shares in China is projected to reach 43.82% in 2024, showing a steady increase from 41.58% in the previous year, although issues of homogenization and templated reporting remain prevalent [5][6][7] - Regulatory measures are shifting ESG disclosures from voluntary to mandatory, with new guidelines focusing on climate-related disclosures and sustainable development reports [5][6][12] Group 1: ESG Disclosure Trends - As of April 29, 2025, 2,299 A-share companies have disclosed their ESG reports, with the banking and non-banking financial sectors leading in disclosure rates, both exceeding 60% [5][6] - The overall structure and logic of ESG reports have improved, with companies adopting a "double materiality" analysis method, indicating a trend towards aligning with international standards [6][7] Group 2: Quality of ESG Reports - The quality of ESG reports has improved compared to the previous year, with leading companies transitioning from formal to substantive disclosures, integrating ESG governance with corporate strategy [7][8] - However, issues of homogenization persist, with some companies still relying on template-based disclosures lacking in-depth analysis of significant issues [7][8] Group 3: Future ESG Needs - Companies are expected to focus on building ESG systems and integrating ESG principles into daily operations, moving beyond mere compliance [8][9] - There is a growing demand for ESG data governance and digital transformation to enhance data quality and traceability [8][9] Group 4: Regulatory Landscape - Current regulations do not impose strict requirements on third-party involvement in ESG report preparation, but there is an expectation for increased scrutiny and standards in the future [10][12] - The regulatory environment is evolving, with various countries implementing frameworks to oversee ESG ratings and disclosures, indicating a trend towards greater accountability [20] Group 5: Industry-Specific ESG Considerations - Different industries must tailor their ESG disclosures to reflect their unique characteristics, with high-carbon industries focusing on emissions and compliance, while tech sectors may prioritize data privacy and inclusivity [14][15] - The disparity in ESG ratings between domestic and international firms, such as in the liquor industry, highlights the need for improved data disclosure and understanding of international standards [17]