文字早评 2025/08/08 星期五 宏观金融类 股指 消息面： 1、央行：将于 8 月 8 日开展 7000 亿元买断式逆回购操作 期限为 3 个月； 2、华为或将推出支持 eSIM 的三折叠手机，有望成为国内首款商用 eSIM 的智能手机。中国移动和中国 联通纷纷恢复了 eSIM 业务的办理; 3、七部门发文，到 2027 年，脑机接口关键技术取得突破，初步建立先进的技术体系、产业体系和标准 体系； 4、苹果公司宣布未来四年在美投资总额将达 6000 亿美元，通过实施"美国制造计划"加速在美国的生 产。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.21%/-0.54%/-1.29%/-2.06%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.60%/-1.75%/-4.23%/-6.38%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.50%/-1.63%/-4.43%/-7.08%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.05%/-0.02%/-0.01%/-0.05%。 交易逻辑：中央政治局会议强调增强国内资本市场的吸引力和包容性，巩固资本市场回稳向好的势头， 进一步确认了政策对资本市场的呵护态度。前期持续上 ...

Core Insights - The egg futures market has reached a significant milestone with the 2507 contract rolling delivery volume hitting 290 lots and the number of delivery pairs exceeding 586 lots, marking a historical high for single contract deliveries in China's egg futures market [1] - The delivery participants show distinct characteristics, with sellers primarily consisting of large-scale domestic egg-laying enterprises and trading companies, while buyers are mainly institutional investors from Zhejiang [1] Market Context for High Delivery Volume - The 2507 egg futures contract remains in a contango structure, but the price gap between futures and spot prices is narrowing due to recent price declines, allowing egg-laying enterprises to hedge and lock in sales prices through futures [3] - Compared to the spot market's average transaction price of 2.50 yuan per jin, futures hedging has provided enterprises with a profit of approximately 0.30 yuan per jin, serving as an important risk management tool [3] - As of July 8, the basis for the 2508 egg futures contract relative to the national average was -995 yuan per 500 kg, with futures premiums at historically high levels for the same period [3] - On July 7, the main egg futures contract saw a decline of 3.74%, reaching a near five-year low, while egg prices in Handan, Hebei, dropped to 2.44 yuan per jin, also a five-year low, driven primarily by production capacity pressures [3] Supply and Demand Imbalance Driving Price Decline - Supply-side pressures are evident, with the national laying hen stock reaching approximately 1.34 billion birds in June, a month-on-month increase of 0.45% and a year-on-year increase of 6.77%, leading to an oversupply of eggs [4] - The average monthly price of eggs in major production areas was 2.76 yuan per jin, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 10.39% and a year-on-year decline of 26.79% [4] - Despite a significant decrease in the age of culling hens in May and June, the stock of laying hens remains high, with expectations of continued production capacity increases in July, estimated at around 1.35 billion birds [4] - Demand appears weak, as the current season is characterized by reduced school procurement due to summer vacations, shifting to household consumption, while high temperatures hinder egg storage, leading to cautious downstream purchasing [4] - Low-price zones are experiencing delivery and cold storage behaviors, which limit price declines, but this inventory may face selling pressure around September, potentially suppressing the market ahead of the Mid-Autumn Festival [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives an "oscillation" rating for the egg industry [5] Core Viewpoints - In the first half of 2025, the egg market featured gradually released supply, limited demand recovery, and a tortuous decline in prices. The trading focus will shift towards demand. After short - term operations based on supply surplus, there will be opportunities in peak - season contracts [1][2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Recent Situation: Tortuous Decline - In H1 2025, the egg market showed a trend of gradually released supply, limited demand recovery, and a tortuous decline in prices. From January to May, the monthly average price in the main production areas dropped from 4.22 yuan/jin to around 3.30 yuan/jin. The price decline was driven by a high inventory base, and holiday - related demand fluctuations affected the spot and futures markets. Recently, the egg futures market has been weak [8] Shift of Trading Focus - The bearish view on the June and July egg contracts is due to the surplus supply, with a high inventory base and a slow - paced culling process in the breeding sector. As of April 2025, the in - production laying hen inventory increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The trading focus will gradually shift to demand. Egg prices have typical seasonal characteristics, usually entering a decline in June and starting to rebound in July, reaching a high in September and slightly falling after the National Day holiday [11][17] Investment Advice - The egg breeding cycle is short. In the short - to - medium term, the market is constrained by high in - production inventory and lackluster demand, so the spot price will remain weak. The view that the second quarter has the greatest supply surplus pressure this year has been verified. In the third quarter, there are more trading factors to consider. After short - selling based on supply surplus, there will be opportunities in peak - season contracts. It is recommended to shift from near - far month reverse spreads and short positions in near - month contracts to long positions in peak - season contracts and wait patiently for low - price entry opportunities [25][26]