Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - After a continuous rise, high - flying sectors like AI have shown divergence, with funds switching between high - and low - valued stocks and rapid rotation. Market risk appetite has decreased, and the short - term index faces uncertainty. However, in the long run, with policy support for the capital market remaining unchanged, the main strategy is to go long on dips [4]. - Recently, Sino - US trade disputes have flared up again, and the short - term decline in risk appetite is conducive to the recovery of the bond market. But the future of tariff progress is uncertain. In the fourth quarter, the bond market still needs to focus on the fundamentals and institutional allocation power. Overall, the supply - demand pattern of the bond market may improve, and it is expected to fluctuate, with attention paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. - The Fed's monetary policy is in the early stage of the easing cycle, and the most important driver, the new Fed chair candidate, has not been announced. It is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy for precious metals [10]. - For most commodities, Sino - US trade frictions and the uncertainty of relevant negotiations have an impact on market sentiment. However, different commodities have different supply - demand fundamentals, which jointly determine their price trends. For the black sector, there is no need to be overly pessimistic, and it may be more cost - effective to look for opportunities to rebound [40][41]. Summary by Category Macro - financial Stock Index - **Market News**: The US listed rare earths, fentanyl, and soybeans as the three major issues in Sino - US economic and trade consultations. CATL's Q3 net profit was 18.5 billion yuan, a 41% year - on - year increase; revenue was 104.19 billion yuan, a 12.9% year - on - year increase. Apple's stock price hit a record high, and iPhone 17 demand was strong. Micron's CBO said the DRAM memory supply situation in 2026 would be more severe [2]. - **Strategy**: After the previous rise, high - flying sectors face divergence, and short - term index is uncertain. In the long run, it is advisable to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market News**: On Monday, TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts all declined. The GDP in the first three quarters increased by 5.2% year - on - year. September's social consumption, fixed - asset investment, and real estate - related data showed different trends [5]. - **Strategy**: Sino - US trade disputes are beneficial to the bond market in the short term, but the future is uncertain. In the fourth quarter, focus on fundamentals and institutional allocation power. The bond market may fluctuate, and pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. Precious Metals - **Market News**: Shanghai gold and silver prices rose. The market has priced in two consecutive 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts in October and December. The Fed may end quantitative tightening, and small - bank loan risks have supported precious metal prices [8][9]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a long - position strategy for precious metals. The reference range for Shanghai gold is 934 - 1050 yuan/gram, and for Shanghai silver is 10937 - 12500 yuan/kilogram [10]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market News**: Overnight, copper prices fluctuated and rose. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic social and bonded - area inventories increased. The spot premium in Shanghai and Guangdong changed, and the import loss narrowed [12]. - **Strategy**: Sino - US trade negotiations are uncertain, but sentiment has improved. Copper raw material supply is tight, and prices may be strong in the short term. The reference range for Shanghai copper is 84800 - 86500 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 10600 - 10800 dollars/ton [13]. Aluminum - **Market News**: Aluminum prices fluctuated and declined. LME and domestic inventories changed, and the market trading atmosphere was light [14]. - **Strategy**: Sino - US trade tensions have eased, and the price may be strong in the short term. The reference range for Shanghai aluminum is 20800 - 21100 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 2750 - 2800 dollars/ton [15]. Zinc - **Market News**: Shanghai zinc index rose slightly, and LME zinc fell. Domestic and overseas inventories and basis changed [16]. - **Strategy**: Domestic zinc ore inventory decreased, and zinc ingot inventory increased. It is expected to be weak in the short term [18]. Lead - **Market News**: Shanghai lead index fell slightly. Domestic and overseas inventories and basis changed, and domestic social inventory decreased [19]. - **Strategy**: Lead ore port inventory increased, and downstream demand improved. It is expected to be strong in the short term [19]. Nickel - **Market News**: Nickel prices fluctuated at a low level. Spot prices were stable, and nickel ore and nickel - iron prices were also stable. MHP coefficient prices were high [20]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, Sino - US trade frictions may have a limited impact. Nickel - iron prices are weak, and inventory pressure is high. In the long run, there is support. It is recommended to wait and see, and consider going long on dips [20]. Tin - **Market News**: Shanghai tin prices fell. Supply was tight due to slow tin - mine复产 in Myanmar and crackdown on illegal mining in Indonesia. Demand in some sectors was weak, but there was marginal improvement in the peak season [21]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, Sino - US trade frictions may affect sentiment, but supply - demand is in tight balance, and prices may fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to wait and see [21]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market News**: The spot index of lithium carbonate rose, and the futures price also increased slightly [22]. - **Strategy**: The downstream of lithium batteries is in the peak season, and supply is less than demand. Pay attention to the supply recovery. The reference range for the 2601 contract is 73800 - 78000 yuan/ton [23]. Alumina - **Market News**: The alumina index rose slightly. Spot prices, overseas prices, and inventory changed [24]. - **Strategy**: Ore prices have short - term support but may be under pressure after the rainy season. The smelting capacity is in excess, but the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation may support prices. It is recommended to wait and see [25]. Stainless Steel - **Market News**: Stainless - steel futures prices fell slightly. Spot prices, raw - material prices, and inventory changed [26]. - **Strategy**: The price limit increase by Qing Shan Steel has boosted market confidence, but demand is limited. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [27]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market News**: Cast - aluminum - alloy prices fell. Inventory and trading volume changed [28]. - **Strategy**: Sino - US trade negotiations may improve sentiment, but high warehouse receipts limit the upward space [29]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market News**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices changed. Futures and spot prices, inventory, and trading volume all had corresponding changes [31]. - **Strategy**: The overall commodity market was weak. Steel prices may fluctuate in the short term, and the long - term trend is unchanged. Pay attention to the Fourth Plenary Session and Sino - US negotiations [32]. Iron Ore - **Market News**: Iron - ore futures prices fell slightly. Spot prices, basis, and inventory changed [33]. - **Strategy**: Supply has increased, and demand has decreased. Steel - mill profitability has declined, and prices are expected to be weak. Pay attention to the support at 760 - 765 yuan/ton [34]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market News**: Glass prices rose, and soda - ash prices rose slightly. Inventory, trading volume, and basis changed [35][37]. - **Strategy**: Glass and soda - ash markets are expected to be weak in the short term due to high inventory and weak demand [36][37]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market News**: Manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon futures prices rose slightly. Spot prices and basis changed [38]. - **Strategy**: Sino - US trade frictions and weak demand have pressured prices, but the market may have expectations for future meetings. It is recommended to look for opportunities to rebound. Manganese silicon may follow the black - sector trend, and ferrosilicon has no obvious supply - demand contradiction [40][41]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market News**: Industrial - silicon prices rose, and polysilicon prices fell. Spot prices, inventory, and basis changed [42][44]. - **Strategy**: Industrial - silicon supply is under pressure, and it is expected to fluctuate. Polysilicon supply may decrease at the end of the month, and prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [43][46]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market News**: Rubber prices fluctuated and recovered. Typhoon Fengshen may affect production areas. Tire - enterprise operating rates changed, and inventory decreased [48][50]. - **Strategy**: Rubber prices are stable in the short term. It is recommended to go long with a stop - loss and consider a hedging strategy [52]. Crude Oil - **Market News**: Crude - oil futures prices fell, and refined - oil futures prices changed. Inventory data showed different trends [53]. - **Strategy**: Although geopolitical premiums have disappeared, OPEC's supply has not increased significantly. It is recommended to wait and see and use a range - trading strategy [54]. Methanol - **Market News**: Methanol prices changed. Spot prices, basis, and inventory changed [55]. - **Strategy**: Import unloading is delayed, and supply has decreased slightly. Demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [56]. Urea - **Market News**: Urea prices changed. Spot prices, basis, and inventory changed [57]. - **Strategy**: Short - term production has decreased, and demand is weak. Prices are expected to fluctuate in a narrow range. It is recommended to wait and see or consider going long on dips [58]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market News**: Pure - benzene and styrene prices changed. Cost, supply, demand, and inventory data all had corresponding changes [59]. - **Strategy**: Spot and futures prices fell, and the basis strengthened. Supply is abundant, and demand is increasing seasonally. Prices may stop falling [60]. PVC - **Market News**: PVC prices rose. Cost, supply, demand, and inventory data all had corresponding changes [61]. - **Strategy**: Supply is strong, demand is weak, and export expectations are poor. It is recommended to go short on rallies [62]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market News**: Ethylene - glycol prices were stable. Supply, demand, and inventory data all had corresponding changes [63]. - **Strategy**: Supply is increasing, and inventory is rising. It is recommended to go short on rallies [64]. PTA - **Market News**: PTA prices fell. Supply, demand, and inventory data all had corresponding changes [65]. - **Strategy**: Supply is increasing, and demand is stable. It is recommended to wait and see [66]. p - Xylene - **Market News**: p - Xylene prices fell. Supply, demand, and inventory data all had corresponding changes [67]. - **Strategy**: PX load is high, and downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [69]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market News**: PE prices rose. Spot prices, basis, and inventory data all had corresponding changes [70]. - **Strategy**: Futures prices rose. Supply is high, and demand is increasing seasonally. Prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [71]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market News**: PP prices rose. Spot prices, basis, and inventory data all had corresponding changes [72]. - **Strategy**: Futures prices rose. Supply is high, and demand is weak. Prices are under pressure [73]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market News**: Pig prices mainly rose. There are risks in product sales, and demand may decrease [75]. - **Strategy**: Supply exceeds demand, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [76]. Eggs - **Market News**: Egg prices fell. Supply is normal, and demand is weak [77]. - **Strategy**: Spot prices may rebound slightly, but the space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [78]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market News**: CBOT soybeans rose. Domestic soybean - meal prices were stable, and inventory decreased [79]. - **Strategy**: Domestic supply pressure is high, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [82]. Oils and Fats - **Market News**: Malaysian palm - oil exports increased, and production also increased. Domestic palm - oil and soybean - oil inventories changed [83]. - **Strategy**: There is support for the price center. It is recommended to buy on dips [84]. Sugar - **Market News**: Sugar futures prices rebounded slightly, and spot prices fell. Brazilian production data and Chinese import data were released [85]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to be bearish in the long run, and it is recommended to sell on rallies in the fourth quarter [87]. Cotton - **Market News**: Cotton futures prices rebounded. Spot prices, acquisition prices, and import data all had corresponding changes [88]. - **Strategy**: Sino - US trade conflicts and weak fundamentals limit the upward space. It is expected to fluctuate weakly [89].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the stock index, after a continuous rise, high - risk sectors like AI are showing divergence. The market risk preference has decreased, and the short - term index faces uncertainty. However, in the long - term, the policy supports the capital market, and the main idea is to go long on dips [4]. - Regarding national debt, in August, economic data continued to slow down. The "anti - involution" policy led to a price increase, but the export may face pressure. The central bank maintains a loose attitude towards funds. Interest rates are expected to decline, and the bond market may oscillate and recover in the short - term [7]. - For precious metals, after the Fed's interest - rate cut in September, key figures' monetary policy statements are dovish. It is recommended to go long on dips [10]. - In the non - ferrous metals sector, although the Fed's statements are less dovish than expected, if the interest - rate cut progresses, market sentiment may not be significantly suppressed. Each metal has its own supply - demand situation, and short - term price trends vary [13][15][17]. - In the black building materials sector, steel prices may fall if demand fails to recover. Iron ore prices will oscillate. Glass may be bullish in the short - term, while soda ash will continue to oscillate. The black sector may face a short - term correction but may have long - term multi - allocation value [33][36][38][39][44]. - In the energy and chemical sector, rubber is recommended to be observed after the holiday. Crude oil is recommended for multi - allocation. Methanol and urea can be considered for long positions on dips. Other chemical products have different supply - demand and price trends [55][57][59][60]. - For agricultural products, the short - term trends of different products such as pigs, eggs, and grains vary, and corresponding trading strategies are provided according to their supply - demand situations [80][82][84]. Summary by Directory Stock Index - **Market Information**: The state is studying measures to standardize copper smelting capacity construction. The total scale of public funds has exceeded 36 trillion yuan. The China Foreign Exchange Trade System has optimized the "Swap Connect" mechanism. Shangwei New Materials will be suspended for verification [2]. - **Basis Ratio**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for different periods are provided [3]. - **Strategy**: After a continuous rise, high - risk sectors are showing divergence. The short - term index faces uncertainty, but the long - term is bullish on dips [4]. National Debt - **Market Information**: On Thursday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had different price changes. The central bank's deputy governor proposed measures to expand the application scenarios of the Hong Kong RMB bond market [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 4835 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Thursday, with a net withdrawal of 35 billion yuan [6]. - **Strategy**: Economic data in August was weak. The "anti - involution" policy affected exports. The central bank maintains a loose attitude towards funds. Interest rates are expected to decline, and the bond market may oscillate and recover in the short - term [7]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Domestic and foreign gold and silver prices rose. US economic data exceeded expectations, and the market's recession expectation eased. Fed Chairman Powell's statement implied possible policy adjustments [8][9]. - **Strategy**: After the Fed's interest - rate cut in September, key figures' statements are dovish. It is recommended to go long on dips [10]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Due to strong US employment and durable goods data, the US dollar index rebounded, and copper prices fell back. LME and domestic copper inventories changed, and the import loss of domestic copper spot increased [12]. - **Strategy**: The Fed's hawkish statement may put short - term pressure on sentiment, but if the interest - rate cut progresses, copper prices are expected to be strong in the short - term [13]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Domestic social inventories decreased, and aluminum prices stabilized and rebounded. LME aluminum inventories decreased, and the basis changed [14]. - **Strategy**: Although the Fed's statement is less dovish than expected, aluminum prices have strong support below as the holiday approaches [15]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index rose. Domestic and foreign zinc inventories decreased, and the Shanghai - London ratio weakened [16][17]. - **Strategy**: The surplus of zinc ore has eased. After the Fed's interest - rate cut, the sentiment of the non - ferrous metals sector cooled. It is expected that Shanghai zinc will be weak in the short - term [17]. Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index rose. Domestic and foreign lead inventories decreased, and the basis changed [18]. - **Strategy**: The shortage of raw materials suppresses the start - up of primary smelting, while the start - up of secondary smelting recovers. Downstream demand increases, and it is expected that Shanghai lead will be strong in the short - term [19]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices oscillated. The cost of nickel ore and nickel iron was stable, and the price of MHP increased slightly [20]. - **Strategy**: Although refined nickel inventory pressure drags down nickel prices, in the long - term, there are positive factors. It is recommended to go long on dips [20]. Tin - **Market Information**: The Shanghai tin main contract rose. Domestic and foreign inventories changed. The supply of tin concentrate was tight, and demand was in the peak season [21]. - **Strategy**: The short - term supply - demand of tin is in a tight balance. It is recommended to observe, and the price will continue to oscillate [22]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The spot index of carbonate lithium rose, and the futures price also increased [23]. - **Strategy**: The fundamentals of carbonate lithium remain the same. The spot is tight in the peak season, but the supply increase expectation suppresses the upside. It is expected to oscillate and adjust [23]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index rose. Due to a strike in Guinea, the supply risk of ore increased, and the import window opened [24]. - **Strategy**: Overseas ore disturbances may have a limited short - term impact. The over - capacity pattern in the smelting end is difficult to change. It is recommended to observe [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless - steel main contract rose. Spot prices were stable, and inventory decreased [27]. - **Strategy**: Domestic steel mills have a strong willingness to support prices, but consumption has not improved significantly. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [28]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The AD2511 contract rose. The downstream is in the process of transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and inventory changes [29]. - **Strategy**: The peak - season characteristics are not obvious, and there is delivery pressure. The price is supported by the cost of scrap aluminum [30]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil rose slightly. The registered warehouse receipts and positions of the main contracts changed [32]. - **Strategy**: The commodity market was positive, but the demand for steel was weak. If demand fails to recover, steel prices may fall [33]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The main contract of iron ore rose. The spot price and basis changed [34]. - **Strategy**: Overseas iron - ore shipments decreased, and demand increased. Port and steel - mill inventories changed. Iron - ore prices will oscillate [35][36]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass Market Information**: The glass main contract rose. Spot prices increased, and inventory decreased [37]. - **Glass Strategy**: Six departments banned new flat - glass production capacity, and prices rose in the short - term. However, demand is weak. It is recommended to be bullish in the short - term [38]. - **Soda Ash Market Information**: The soda - ash main contract rose. Spot prices increased, and inventory decreased [39]. - **Soda Ash Strategy**: The domestic soda - ash market is stable, with limited price fluctuations. It is expected to continue to oscillate in the short - term [39]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon rose. The market was affected by policies [40][41][42]. - **Strategy**: The Fed's interest - rate cut and "anti - involution" sentiment affect the black sector. Although there is a short - term correction risk, there may be long - term multi - allocation value [43][44]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon Market Information**: The price of industrial silicon rose. The spot price and basis changed [45]. - **Industrial Silicon Strategy**: The supply - demand of industrial silicon has not changed significantly. The price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to supply - demand and policy changes [46][47]. - **Polysilicon Market Information**: The price of polysilicon was stable. The spot price and basis changed [48]. - **Polysilicon Strategy**: The polysilicon price is affected by policies and fundamentals. It is expected to oscillate, and there is a risk of decline if expectations are not met [49]. Energy and Chemical Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices were weak. There were factors such as expected state reserves release, changes in the position structure, and weather impacts [51]. - **Strategy**: In the medium - term, it is a long - term idea. In the short - term, it is recommended to observe and look for opportunities after the holiday [55]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The prices of INE crude oil and related refined products rose. US inventory data changed [56]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended for multi - allocation, as the current price is supported by fundamentals, and there is upside potential if geopolitical premiums return [57]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price of methanol changed. The basis and spread changed [58][59]. - **Strategy**: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand has improved. The inventory has decreased. It is recommended to go long on dips [59]. Urea - **Market Information**: The price of urea was stable. The basis and spread changed [60]. - **Strategy**: The supply pressure has increased, and the demand is average. It is recommended to go long on dips at low prices [60]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The price of pure benzene was stable, and the price of styrene rose. The basis and spread changed [61]. - **Strategy**: The BZN spread has room for upward repair. The price of styrene may stop falling [62]. PVC - **Market Information**: The price of PVC rose. The cost, supply, and demand changed, and inventory changed [63][64]. - **Strategy**: The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The export expectation is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies [65]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The price of ethylene glycol rose. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [66]. - **Strategy**: The supply is high, and the inventory is expected to increase in the medium - term. It is recommended to short on rallies, but beware of risks [67]. PTA - **Market Information**: The price of PTA rose. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [68]. - **Strategy**: The supply has unexpected maintenance, and the inventory is decreasing. The demand is under pressure. It is recommended to observe [69][70]. Para - Xylene - **Market Information**: The price of PX rose. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [71]. - **Strategy**: The PX load is high, and the downstream PTA has maintenance. It is expected to accumulate inventory. It is recommended to observe [72]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The price of PE rose. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [73]. - **Strategy**: The market expects favorable policies. The price may oscillate upward [74]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The price of PP rose. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [75][76]. - **Strategy**: The supply pressure is high, and the demand is seasonally rebounding. The inventory pressure is high. There is no obvious short - term contradiction [77]. Agricultural Products Pig - **Market Information**: The domestic pig price mainly fell. The supply exceeded demand before the holiday [79]. - **Strategy**: The spot price is falling, and the futures price is expected to be weak. It is recommended to short the near - month contract and conduct reverse arbitrage [80]. Egg - **Market Information**: The national egg price was stable with a few declines. The supply was stable, and the demand was weak [81]. - **Strategy**: The spot price is expected to fall, and the near - month futures price is weak. It is recommended to observe in the short - term and buy the far - month contract after a decline [82]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The price of US soybeans rose slightly. The domestic soybean - meal price and inventory changed. Argentina's export tax policy affected the market [83]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply pressure is high, and the global supply is loose. It is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to short on rallies [84]. Edible Oils - **Market Information**: The exports and production of Malaysian palm oil changed. Indonesia's palm - oil data changed. India bought a large amount of soybean oil. Domestic oil prices rebounded [85][86]. - **Strategy**: The low inventory in India and Southeast Asia, and the expected increase in demand support the oil price. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the medium - term. It is recommended to buy on dips [87]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell back. The production of major sugar - producing countries is expected to increase [88]. - **Strategy**: Affected by imports and production increases, the sugar price is expected to fall. It is recommended to observe before the National Day [89]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price was weak. The spot price and inventory changed [90]. - **Strategy**: The downstream start - up rate is weak, and there is an expected increase in production. The price is expected to be weak in the short - term, but there is support below. It is recommended to observe [91].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The stock market may experience increased short - term volatility after continuous previous gains, but the general approach is to go long on dips. The bond market is expected to have a downward trend in interest rates in the long run, with a possible short - term return to a volatile pattern. Precious metals prices are supported by Trump's influence on the Fed, and it is advisable to buy on dips. Base metals, black building materials, energy chemicals, and agricultural products each have their own supply - demand and price trends, and corresponding trading strategies are recommended [3][5][6]. Summary by Category Macro - Financial Stock Index - **News**: The central bank will conduct a 7000 - billion - yuan repurchase operation on August 8th. Huawei may launch a triple - folding eSIM phone, and eSIM services are resumed. Seven departments aim to make breakthroughs in brain - computer interface technology by 2027. Apple will invest 6000 billion dollars in the US in the next four years [2]. - **Basis Point Ratios**: The basis point ratios of different contracts for IF, IC, IM, and IH are provided. The trading logic is to go long on dips in the long - term despite short - term volatility [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Quotes**: On Thursday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had different increases. - **News**: China's July exports and imports increased year - on - year. The central bank will conduct a 7000 - billion - yuan repurchase operation. The central bank had a net withdrawal of 1225 billion yuan on Thursday [4]. - **Strategy**: Interest rates are expected to decline in the long run, but the bond market may return to a volatile pattern in the short term [5]. Precious Metals - **Quotes**: Shanghai gold and silver, COMEX gold and silver all rose. The US 10 - year Treasury yield is 4.23%, and the US dollar index is 98.00 [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Trump's influence on the Fed supports precious metals prices. It is recommended to buy on dips, with reference price ranges provided for Shanghai gold and silver [6][7]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Quotes**: LME copper closed down 0.04%, and Shanghai copper closed at 78360 yuan/ton. - **Industry**: LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic social inventory decreased slightly. The price is expected to have a limited upside in the short term, with reference price ranges provided [9]. Aluminum - **Quotes**: LME aluminum closed down 0.42%, and Shanghai aluminum closed at 20670 yuan/ton. - **Industry**: Domestic aluminum ingot inventory is relatively low, but the short - term upward movement is difficult, with reference price ranges provided [10]. Zinc - **Quotes**: Shanghai zinc index rose 0.97%. - **Industry**: Zinc ore inventory is increasing, and domestic zinc ingot inventory is accumulating. The short - term consumption is weakening, and the price decline risk is rising [11][12]. Lead - **Quotes**: Shanghai lead index rose 0.19%. - **Industry**: Lead ore inventory is decreasing, and lead ingot supply is tightening. The short - term price is expected to be strong [13]. Nickel - **Quotes**: Nickel price rebounded slightly. - **Industry**: Nickel price is still anchored to nickel iron price. It is recommended to wait and see, with reference price ranges provided [14]. Tin - **Quotes**: Shanghai tin rose 0.38%. - **Industry**: Tin supply and demand are both weak in the short term, and the price is expected to be volatile and weak, with reference price ranges provided [15][16]. Carbonate Lithium - **Quotes**: The spot index was flat, and the futures contract rose 3.85%. - **Industry**: The supply is increasing, and the inventory is rising. The price is affected by capital games, with a reference price range provided [17]. Alumina - **Quotes**: The index fell 0.62%. - **Industry**: The supply is expected to be in excess. It is recommended to short on rallies, with a reference price range provided [18]. Stainless Steel - **Quotes**: The futures contract rose 0.50%. - **Industry**: The social inventory decreased, and the short - term price is expected to be strong [19]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Quotes**: The contract rose 0.3%. - **Industry**: The downstream is in the off - season, and the price rebound space is limited [20][21]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Quotes**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices declined. - **Industry**: The supply and demand of rebar increased, and those of hot - rolled coil decreased. The inventory is rising, and the price may return to the supply - demand logic. It is recommended to pay attention to demand and cost [23][24]. Iron Ore - **Quotes**: The futures contract fell 0.19%. - **Industry**: The supply is affected by overseas shipments, and the demand is related to iron water production. The short - term trend is not strong, and attention should be paid to demand and possible production restrictions [25][26]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot price was flat, and the inventory increased. The short - term price is expected to be volatile, and the long - term trend depends on real estate policies [27]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price fell, and the inventory increased. The short - term price is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and short on rallies in the long term [28]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Quotes**: Manganese silicon fell 0.52%, and ferrosilicon fell 1.25%. - **Industry**: The short - term price is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to wait and see for investment positions and choose hedging opportunities for hedging positions [29]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures contract fell 0.52%. The supply is in excess, and the demand is insufficient. The price is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to relevant initiatives [33][34]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures contract fell 2.41%. The price is affected by capacity policies and is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to be cautious [35][36]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Quotes**: NR and RU rebounded and then oscillated. - **Industry**: The tire industry has different operating rates. The rubber price is recommended to be traded with a slightly long - biased and fast - in - and - out strategy [38][39][41]. Crude Oil - **Quotes**: WTI, Brent, and INE crude oil futures all fell. - **Industry**: The fundamentals are healthy, but the seasonal demand will limit the upside. It is recommended to go long on dips and set a target price [42]. Methanol - **Quotes**: The 09 contract fell 8 yuan/ton. - **Industry**: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. It can be considered as a short - position variety in the sector [43]. Urea - **Quotes**: The 09 contract fell 13 yuan/ton. - **Industry**: The supply is relatively loose, and the demand is weak in the short term. It is recommended to go long on dips [44]. Styrene - **Quotes**: The spot and futures prices rose. - **Industry**: The BZN spread is expected to repair, and the price may follow the cost to rise after the port inventory is reduced [45]. PVC - **Quotes**: The 09 contract fell 5 yuan. - **Industry**: The supply is strong, the demand is weak, and the valuation is high. It is recommended to wait and see [47]. Ethylene Glycol - **Quotes**: The 09 contract fell 18 yuan. - **Industry**: The supply and demand are changing, and the inventory is expected to increase. The short - term valuation may decline [48]. PTA - **Quotes**: The 09 contract fell 36 yuan. - **Industry**: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is about to end the off - season. It is recommended to go long on dips following PX [49]. p - Xylene - **Quotes**: The 09 contract fell 38 yuan. - **Industry**: The load is high, and the inventory is expected to decrease. It is recommended to go long on dips following crude oil [50]. Polyethylene PE - **Quotes**: The futures price fell. - **Industry**: The price is affected by cost and supply - demand. It is recommended to hold short positions [51]. Polypropylene PP - **Quotes**: The futures price fell. - **Industry**: The price is expected to follow crude oil to rise in July, affected by supply and demand [52]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Quotes**: The domestic pig price continued to fall. - **Industry**: The supply is abundant, and the demand is limited. It is recommended to focus on the spread opportunities [54]. Eggs - **Quotes**: The egg price was mostly stable. - **Industry**: The supply is large, and the price is expected to be stable in the short term. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [55]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Important Information**: Malaysian palm oil export and production data, and Brazilian soybean planting area forecast are provided [56]. - **Trading Strategy**: The palm oil price is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to go long on dips for soybean meal and expand the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal [58][61]. Sugar - **Quotes**: Zhengzhou sugar futures fell. - **Industry**: The import supply is increasing, and the price is expected to continue to fall [62][63]. Cotton - **Quotes**: Zhengzhou cotton futures continued to oscillate. - **Industry**: The downstream consumption is average, and the price is expected to be short - term bearish [64].

Core Insights - The egg futures market has reached a significant milestone with the 2507 contract rolling delivery volume hitting 290 lots and the number of delivery pairs exceeding 586 lots, marking a historical high for single contract deliveries in China's egg futures market [1] - The delivery participants show distinct characteristics, with sellers primarily consisting of large-scale domestic egg-laying enterprises and trading companies, while buyers are mainly institutional investors from Zhejiang [1] Market Context for High Delivery Volume - The 2507 egg futures contract remains in a contango structure, but the price gap between futures and spot prices is narrowing due to recent price declines, allowing egg-laying enterprises to hedge and lock in sales prices through futures [3] - Compared to the spot market's average transaction price of 2.50 yuan per jin, futures hedging has provided enterprises with a profit of approximately 0.30 yuan per jin, serving as an important risk management tool [3] - As of July 8, the basis for the 2508 egg futures contract relative to the national average was -995 yuan per 500 kg, with futures premiums at historically high levels for the same period [3] - On July 7, the main egg futures contract saw a decline of 3.74%, reaching a near five-year low, while egg prices in Handan, Hebei, dropped to 2.44 yuan per jin, also a five-year low, driven primarily by production capacity pressures [3] Supply and Demand Imbalance Driving Price Decline - Supply-side pressures are evident, with the national laying hen stock reaching approximately 1.34 billion birds in June, a month-on-month increase of 0.45% and a year-on-year increase of 6.77%, leading to an oversupply of eggs [4] - The average monthly price of eggs in major production areas was 2.76 yuan per jin, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 10.39% and a year-on-year decline of 26.79% [4] - Despite a significant decrease in the age of culling hens in May and June, the stock of laying hens remains high, with expectations of continued production capacity increases in July, estimated at around 1.35 billion birds [4] - Demand appears weak, as the current season is characterized by reduced school procurement due to summer vacations, shifting to household consumption, while high temperatures hinder egg storage, leading to cautious downstream purchasing [4] - Low-price zones are experiencing delivery and cold storage behaviors, which limit price declines, but this inventory may face selling pressure around September, potentially suppressing the market ahead of the Mid-Autumn Festival [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives an "oscillation" rating for the egg industry [5] Core Viewpoints - In the first half of 2025, the egg market featured gradually released supply, limited demand recovery, and a tortuous decline in prices. The trading focus will shift towards demand. After short - term operations based on supply surplus, there will be opportunities in peak - season contracts [1][2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Recent Situation: Tortuous Decline - In H1 2025, the egg market showed a trend of gradually released supply, limited demand recovery, and a tortuous decline in prices. From January to May, the monthly average price in the main production areas dropped from 4.22 yuan/jin to around 3.30 yuan/jin. The price decline was driven by a high inventory base, and holiday - related demand fluctuations affected the spot and futures markets. Recently, the egg futures market has been weak [8] Shift of Trading Focus - The bearish view on the June and July egg contracts is due to the surplus supply, with a high inventory base and a slow - paced culling process in the breeding sector. As of April 2025, the in - production laying hen inventory increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The trading focus will gradually shift to demand. Egg prices have typical seasonal characteristics, usually entering a decline in June and starting to rebound in July, reaching a high in September and slightly falling after the National Day holiday [11][17] Investment Advice - The egg breeding cycle is short. In the short - to - medium term, the market is constrained by high in - production inventory and lackluster demand, so the spot price will remain weak. The view that the second quarter has the greatest supply surplus pressure this year has been verified. In the third quarter, there are more trading factors to consider. After short - selling based on supply surplus, there will be opportunities in peak - season contracts. It is recommended to shift from near - far month reverse spreads and short positions in near - month contracts to long positions in peak - season contracts and wait patiently for low - price entry opportunities [25][26]