[Table_Main] 行业研究|可选消费 证券研究报告 可选消费行业周报、月报 2025 年 08 月 27 日 [Table_Title] 中报业绩密集披露，泡泡玛特新品发布 ——美护商社行业周报 [Table_Summary] 报告要点： 市场表现 本周（2025.08.18-2025.08.22），商贸零售/社会服务/美容护理分别 +4.55%/+4.55%/+5.35%，在 31 个一级行业中排名第 8/9/5，同期上 证综指+3.49%，深证成指+4.57%，沪深 300+4.18%。 细分子板块来看，本周重点消费子板块普涨，互联网电商/教育/化妆品 板块涨幅居前，分别+7.55%/+7.08%/+6.74%。 本周行业重点事件及资讯 （1）美护：爱美客 25H1 实现营收 12.99 亿元，同比下降 21.59%； 归母净利润 7.89 亿元，同比下降 29.57%。润本股份 25H1 实现营业 收入达 8.95 亿元，同增 20.31%；归母净利润 1.88 亿元，同增 4.16%。 水羊股份 25H1 实现营收 25 亿元，同增 9.02%；归母净利润 1.23 亿 元，同增 16.54% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Perform" rating for the media sector relative to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index [1] Core Views - The report expresses a positive outlook on sub-sectors such as gaming, publishing, and IP derivatives, highlighting strong performance and growth potential in these areas [12][13] - The gaming market in H1 2025 reached new highs in both market size and user data, supported by favorable policies and the integration of AI technology [12][42] - The publishing sector shows stable demand for educational materials, with a recommendation to focus on state-owned companies with high dividend yields [13] - The film sector is expected to see improved performance in Q3 due to the summer box office demand, despite a weaker Q2 [14] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - Continuous optimism for gaming, publishing, and IP derivative sectors due to strong performance and growth potential [12] - Emphasis on the gaming sector's resilience and AI's role in enhancing valuation [12][42] - Recommendations to monitor companies with positive fundamentals ahead of the upcoming mid-year reports [12] Market Review - From July 21 to August 15, 2025, the media sector rose by 6.56%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index [15][16] - The gaming and broadcasting sectors saw significant increases of 12.55%, while the publishing sector grew by 1.35% [16] - The overall PE ratio for the media sector as of August 15, 2025, is 31.11, significantly above the historical average [22] Industry News - New policies from the Shanghai Municipal Government aim to support high-quality internet content creation [23] - The approval of 127 domestic game licenses in July 2025 indicates a robust regulatory environment for the gaming industry [25] - The central government emphasizes the importance of artificial intelligence in driving economic growth and innovation [25] Monthly Data Film Market - In July 2025, the domestic film market generated a box office of 4.067 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24.38% [26] - The total box office for the first seven months of 2025 reached 33.299 billion yuan, reflecting a 13.72% increase year-on-year [26] Game Market - The domestic gaming market's actual sales revenue for the first half of 2025 was 168 billion yuan, marking a 14.08% year-on-year increase [42] - The user base for games reached 679 million, a 0.72% increase from the previous year [42]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry, with a focus on new consumption sectors such as beauty care, IP derivatives, and gold jewelry [6][32]. Core Insights - The beauty care sector is expected to see significant growth, with companies like Shangmei Co. projecting a revenue of approximately 4.09-4.11 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of about 16.8%-17.3% [3][30]. - The report highlights key events such as the announcement of free preschool education by the State Council, which may impact consumer spending patterns [3][25]. - The report notes a rise in core CPI by 0.8% year-on-year in July 2025, indicating inflationary pressures that could affect consumer behavior [3][25]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - During the week of August 4-8, 2025, the retail trade, social services, and beauty care sectors experienced declines of -0.38%, -0.11%, and an increase of +1.70%, respectively [15][18]. - Among sub-sectors, jewelry, personal care products, and trade saw notable gains of +5.53%, +4.23%, and +2.09% [18][21]. Key Industry Data and News - The report discusses the impact of the government's free preschool education policy, which will take effect in the fall semester of 2025 [3][25]. - Notable company announcements include Shangmei Co.'s positive earnings forecast and the planned H-share listing by Ruoyuchen [30][32]. - The report also covers the performance of major companies like Shiseido and Marubi, with Shiseido reporting a 7.6% decline in net sales for the first half of 2025 [3][25]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Shangmei Co., Juzi Biotechnology, Marubi, and others within the beauty care and new consumption sectors [6][32].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The traditional light industry investment logic is diverse, categorized into three main directions: stable growth with high dividends (e.g., Yutong Technology, Yongxin Co.), growth potential (export chain companies like Jiangxin Home), and cyclical (paper and metal packaging) [1][3][4] - The new consumption industry is currently in a high prosperity and growth phase, with opportunities particularly in information tobacco, trendy toys, and personal care sectors [2] Core Insights and Arguments - **IP Derivative Market Potential**: The market is driven by rising GDP per capita and increasing demand for spiritual consumption, with emotional, social, and collectible values propelling industry growth [1][5] - **Bubble Mart's Growth**: Expected revenue of 30 billion yuan and profit of 10 billion yuan this year, with projections of 45 to 50 billion yuan in revenue and 15 to 17 billion yuan in profit in the coming years. The company is expanding its product matrix and global market presence [1][7] - **Blucor's Short-term Decline**: The recent drop in Blucor's stock price presents a buying opportunity, with a focus on expanding its IP offerings to girls and adults, potentially increasing revenue to 8 to 10 billion yuan [1][8][9] - **Tobacco Industry Shift**: The global tobacco industry is transitioning to new tobacco products due to the decline of traditional cigarettes, with major companies like Philip Morris and British American Tobacco increasing investments in this area [1][12][13] Additional Important Insights - **Export Sector**: Companies like Jiangxin Home have significant growth potential in the U.S. market, with a focus on brand recognition and global market expansion [1][24] - **Packaging Industry**: Yutong Technology and Yongxin Co. are highlighted for their high dividend yields and international expansion strategies, with Yutong aiming for a balanced domestic and international sales ratio [1][22] - **Paper Industry Outlook**: The paper industry is currently at a historical low in pricing, with expectations for demand recovery in the coming years, particularly for companies like Sun Paper [1][21] - **Environmental Packaging**: New companies in the environmental packaging sector, such as Zhongxin Co., are emerging, with potential for significant growth if new production capacities are realized [1][25] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call records, providing insights into the light industry, new consumption trends, and specific company performances and strategies.

Summary of Guangbo Co., Ltd. Conference Call Company Overview - Guangbo Co., Ltd. has a domestic sales ratio of 70%, with office direct sales accounting for 60%, IP cultural and creative business at 7%, and foreign sales and cross-border e-commerce close to 30% [2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Business Structure and Focus - In 2024, Guangbo Co., Ltd. restructured its business by reducing its internet marketing operations and focusing on stationery and domestic office direct sales [3]. - The company is accelerating its transformation towards the IP cultural and creative business, emphasizing product development and channel expansion [3]. Profitability and Growth Expectations - The gross margin for the IP cultural and creative business exceeds 43%, significantly higher than other business segments [4]. - The company anticipates overall profit growth driven by the rapid expansion of the IP cultural and creative business, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20% to 30% [5][4]. Market Potential - The Chinese IP derivative market is valued at nearly 200 billion yuan, expected to maintain steady growth due to the rise of domestic IP, expansion of retail channels, and low penetration rates [2][7]. - The primary consumer group for IP derivatives is the Z generation (ages 15-29), who show a strong inclination towards emotional consumption [8][9]. Competitive Advantages - Guangbo Co., Ltd. has established advantages in paper product printing and supply chain management, leveraging its experience in product design through proprietary brands and IP collaborations [6][14]. - The company has successfully created popular products, facilitating easier access to subsequent IPs [6]. Consumer Behavior - The target audience for Guangbo's products includes young women aged 18-22, who purchase items to express support for their favorite IP content and for social interaction [9]. - Emotional consumption is becoming a necessity for this demographic, driven by factors such as work pressure and changing social dynamics [9]. Industry Trends - The rise of domestic IP content, including films, animations, and mobile games, is positively impacting the demand for cultural and creative products [10]. - The number of cultural and creative stores in China has been steadily increasing since 2025, indicating a positive trend for the IP derivative industry [11]. Global Market Position - China's IP derivative market accounts for about 10% of the global market, with significant potential for domestic companies to expand internationally [11]. - There is a substantial growth potential for per capita spending on IP toys and cards in China compared to mature markets like North America and Japan [12]. Future Projections - Guangbo Co., Ltd. expects revenue growth of 10% to 15% and profit growth of 20% to 30% over the next three years, with a projected P/E ratio of 21 times in 2026, indicating room for valuation adjustments [17]. Additional Important Insights - The competitive landscape in the IP derivative market is fragmented, with opportunities for new entrants in various product categories [7][12]. - Guangbo Co., Ltd. has made significant progress in acquiring IP rights and expanding its product categories, including the introduction of new creative products [16].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of strategic collaboration between China and Russia in the context of evolving international dynamics, highlighting the need to maintain supply chain stability and support multilateral trade systems [5][8] - The macroeconomic environment in China shows signs of gradual recovery, with consumer spending and investment being the main drivers of growth, while the A-share market is expected to experience steady fluctuations [9][12] - The report suggests a focus on sectors such as technology, consumer goods, and dividend-paying assets for investment opportunities in the second half of 2025, driven by supportive policies and improving market conditions [15][30] Domestic Market Performance - The A-share market has shown mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,359.90, down 0.07%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 10,005.03, down 0.47% [3] - The average price-to-earnings ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices are at 13.83 and 36.38 respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [9][17] International Market Performance - Major international indices such as the Dow Jones and S&P 500 have experienced declines, with the Dow closing at 30,772.79, down 0.67%, and the S&P 500 at 3,801.78, down 0.45% [4] Industry Strategies - The report outlines several industry strategies for the second half of 2025, focusing on technology self-sufficiency, boosting domestic consumption, and identifying dividend-paying assets as key investment themes [15][32] - The semiconductor industry is highlighted for its potential growth due to increasing demand for domestic production capabilities amid external pressures [26][34] Key Data Updates - The report includes updates on stock performance, with significant trading volumes indicating active market participation, and highlights the importance of monitoring market trends and external factors [7][11] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sectors such as artificial intelligence, consumer electronics, and telecommunications for potential investment opportunities, given their expected growth trajectories [23][30] - Specific companies within the semiconductor and AI sectors are identified as having strong growth potential, driven by technological advancements and market demand [27][34]

Group 1 - The media sector has shown excellent performance over the past year, with a significant increase of 36.04%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 26.45 percentage points [10][11][15] - In 2024, the media sector's overall performance declined, with total revenue of 549.80 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.10%, and a net profit of 17.88 billion yuan, down 56.58% year-on-year [17][20] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a recovery in the media sector, with revenue reaching 134.23 billion yuan, an increase of 5.02%, and net profit rising by 44.47% to 11.03 billion yuan [20][21] Group 2 - The gaming industry is experiencing stable growth, with the domestic gaming market size reaching approximately 325.78 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.53% [29] - The overseas revenue from self-developed games reached 18.56 billion USD in 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 13.39% [39] - The issuance of game licenses has increased significantly, with 1,306 domestic game licenses issued in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 33.67% [49][51] Group 3 - The IP derivative market is witnessing strong growth, with the global market size expected to reach 100 billion yuan by 2025, driven by the rise of new consumer demographics [6][9] - The publishing sector remains stable, with a solid demand for educational materials and a focus on high-dividend stocks for long-term returns [6][27] - The publishing sector's revenue in 2024 was 148.48 billion yuan, with a slight decrease of 2.46% year-on-year, but the first quarter of 2025 showed resilience with a revenue of 32.19 billion yuan [28][20]

Summary of the IP Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The IP derivative market is experiencing rapid growth, with revenue from derivatives surpassing that of the IP itself, indicating a significant potential for expansion in the market [1][2] - The IP industry chain consists of three segments: upstream content creators (movies, novels, games), midstream product developers (blind boxes, plush toys, cards), and downstream distribution channels (dealers, retail chains, secondary markets) [1][3] Key Insights - The demand for emotional value products varies by consumer demographics, with higher age groups favoring trendy toys and younger audiences gravitating towards card games [1][5] - Notable investment targets include companies in the trendy toy sector like Pop Mart, plush toy brands like Labubu and Jellycat, card game companies like Kayo, and entertainment consumer goods firms like Yadea Electric [1][6] Market Dynamics - Midstream product companies earn 50%-60% of consumer spending, with profit margins highly dependent on product categories; card products have a margin of about 70%, while trendy toys and plush toys range from 40%-70% [1][10] - The IP industry is recognized as a lucrative business, with the derivative products accounting for more than 50% of revenue in overseas markets [2] Future Prospects - The Chinese derivative market is expected to maintain high growth in the coming years, with companies like Pop Mart and Kayo leading the way [3][14] - Emerging companies are exploring new product categories such as food toys and card games, indicating a trend towards diversification in product offerings [14][24] Noteworthy Companies - **Pop Mart**: Demonstrates strong performance in IP incubation and operation, with significant revenue from major IPs like Labubu, and a successful global market presence [16] - **Aofei Entertainment**: Leverages a wide range of channels and has developed national-level IPs across various product categories [17][18] - **Ali Pictures**: Operates the largest IP licensing platform in China, showing rapid growth in sales and a strong portfolio of global IP resources [19] - **Shanghai Film**: Holds a diverse portfolio of classic IPs and is actively pursuing derivative product development [20] - **Kayo**: Plans to go public, with a focus on collectible card games and a projected revenue of 10 billion in 2024 [25] Additional Insights - The secondary market allows consumers to trade products with platforms taking a small commission, while self-operated channels can cover the entire industry chain [8] - The operational success of content stores is closely tied to location and product selection, affecting profitability [9] - Companies are increasingly diversifying their product lines, blurring the lines between different categories [24] Conclusion The IP industry is poised for significant growth, driven by increasing consumer demand for emotional value products and the successful strategies of key players in the market. The diversification of product offerings and the expansion into new categories will further enhance the industry's potential.

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Hong Kong Stock Market**: The market shows strong resilience, exceeding expectations, with significant participation from southbound funds and foreign investments in technology, consumer, and pharmaceutical sectors in May 2025 [2][1] - **Chinese Innovative Drug Industry**: Benefiting from national support policies, with a rising demand for Chinese innovative drugs in the US due to the impending patent cliff in the US and Europe. The proportion of Chinese innovative drug projects authorized in the US reached 50% in Q1 2025 [4][1] - **Domestic IP Market**: Rapid growth observed, with VRA transaction volume on platforms like Xianyu increasing by 105% year-on-year in Q1 2025. Chinese companies excel in supply chain management and e-commerce innovations [11][1] - **Bubble Mart's Overseas Business**: Continued unexpected growth, with overseas revenue projected to reach 10 billion yuan in 2025, marking a 100% increase from the previous year [12][1] Core Insights and Arguments - **Performance of Hong Kong Stocks**: Companies like Hengke have shown significant profit improvements, and the overall earnings elasticity is better than expected, indicating a favorable outlook for 2025 [2][1] - **Innovative Drug Development**: China has become the largest country for innovative drug pipelines globally as of 2024, showcasing advantages in technology and research cycles [5][1] - **Market Demand for Innovative Drugs**: The innovative drug sector is less affected by tariffs due to its reliance on rights authorization rather than physical goods trade [3][1] - **Emerging Trends in Consumer Spending**: The rise in per capita GDP has led to increased demand for creative and culturally valuable products, driving growth in the IP derivatives sector [10][1] Additional Important Content - **Investment Opportunities in New Consumption**: The new consumption sector is characterized by strong alpha candidates, particularly in beauty care and gold jewelry, with companies like Laopu Gold showing significant growth potential [13][1][18][1] - **Automotive Industry Trends**: The demand for new vehicles remains strong, with brands like BYD, Geely, and Xpeng showing potential for growth. The commercial vehicle market is also recovering, with companies like Heavy Truck and Weichai being highlighted [22][1][24][1] - **Financial Performance of Gold Jewelry Sector**: The gold jewelry sector is experiencing a product power renaissance, with companies that have strong design capabilities and brand positioning benefiting from market share growth [16][1][17][1] - **HHR Company Outlook**: HHR is expected to see a turnaround in revenue and profit, with a projected net profit of 640-650 million yuan in 2025, indicating significant improvement potential [26][1]