Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for specific sectors during the upcoming Spring Festival season [5]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of service consumption and product consumption during the Spring Festival, suggesting a focus on sectors related to the holiday, including duty-free shopping, travel chains (scenic spots, hotels, dining), tea beverages, gold and jewelry, and supermarkets [1][2][8]. - The duty-free shopping sector in Hainan is expected to remain strong, with significant year-on-year growth in shopping amounts and visitor numbers during the Spring Festival [1]. - The travel chain is anticipated to see increased participation due to the extended holiday, with diverse travel needs emerging, leading to multiple travel peaks during the festival [2]. - The tea beverage industry is benefiting from promotional activities, such as the "Spring Festival 3 Billion Big Free Order" campaign, which has generated substantial order volumes and is expected to enhance online penetration and market concentration [3]. - Despite fluctuations in gold prices, the report remains optimistic about the gold and jewelry sector, citing improved product strength and operational capabilities among leading brands [4][7]. - Supermarkets are expected to benefit from CPI elasticity during the Spring Festival, with historical data showing a positive correlation between CPI and supermarket same-store sales [7]. Summary by Sections Duty-Free Shopping - Hainan's duty-free shopping is projected to maintain strong performance during the Spring Festival, with shopping amounts reaching 4.53 billion yuan and a year-on-year increase of 44.8% [1]. Travel Chains - The extended holiday is expected to boost travel participation, with a notable increase in travel demand and multiple peaks in travel activity during the festival [2]. Tea Beverages - The tea beverage sector is experiencing a surge in orders due to AI-driven promotional campaigns, with over 10 million orders placed within hours of the campaign launch [3]. Gold and Jewelry - The report highlights that leading brands in the gold and jewelry sector have developed stronger product and operational capabilities, which will support sales during the Spring Festival despite price volatility [4][7]. Supermarkets - Supermarkets are expected to see improved sales due to the correlation between CPI and same-store sales, with the Spring Festival effect anticipated to manifest more strongly in Q1 2026 [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sectors with performance elasticity during the Spring Festival, including duty-free, travel chains, supermarkets, and gold and jewelry, while also considering the potential of AI in e-commerce marketing [8].

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 02 08 年 月 日 社会服务 春节旺季在即，重视服务消费与商品消费 即将步入"史上最长春节假期"，考虑到节日消费传统与新兴消费趋势，我 们建议重视与春节相关的消费子板块，包括免税、出行链（景区酒店餐饮）、 茶饮（红包受益）、黄金珠宝、商超。 免税：海南离岛免税春节有望持续强劲。据海口海关统计，2026 年 1 月， 海南离岛免税购物金额 45.3 亿元，购物人数 56.0 万人次，购物数量 336.7 万件，同比分别增长 44.8%、21.0%和 14.0%。根据同程旅行数据，截至 1 月 27 日，海南省春节酒店整体预订热度同比上涨 191%，其中，海口、 三亚、陵水春节酒店预订热度分别同比涨超 227%、167%和 169%。预计 海南离岛免税行业景气趋势在春节旺季仍将保持强劲。 出行链：长假+普惠政策，最长春节有望迎最热表现。据同程旅行，较长 假期将推动 26 年春节出游人群比例提升，逐步接近返乡大军比例。在休 闲度假、探亲访友、返乡团圆等多元需求的组合下，"分段式过年"和"复 合型春节"的特点愈发明显。出行趋势上，除了假期首尾的客流高 ...

Investment Rating - The industry maintains a "Recommended" rating, with a focus on service consumption, beauty care, IP derivatives, and new consumption sectors such as gold and jewelry [6][27]. Core Insights - The report highlights the implementation of a government plan to accelerate the cultivation of new growth points in service consumption, focusing on key areas such as transportation services, domestic services, and cultural tourism [3][25]. - The beauty care sector is expected to see significant profit growth, with companies like Shanghai Jahwa and Huaxi Bio projecting substantial increases in net profits for 2025 [4][25]. - The travel sector anticipates a 16.2% year-on-year increase in domestic travel, with 6.30 trillion yuan in spending, indicating a strong recovery in consumer spending [5][26]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - During the week of January 26 to January 30, 2026, the retail, social services, and beauty care sectors experienced declines of 4.18%, 3.45%, and 3.76% respectively, ranking 26th, 23rd, and 25th among 31 primary industries [16][18]. Key Industry Events and Information - The State Council issued a plan to enhance service consumption, proposing three support policies aimed at stimulating development in various service sectors [3][25]. - The Ministry of Culture and Tourism launched a national cultural and tourism consumption month, featuring around 30,000 events and distributing over 360 million yuan in consumer vouchers [3][25]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes a focus on service consumption and highlights specific companies for investment, including Ruoyuchen, Maogeping, Shangmei, Pop Mart, Chaohongji, and Laopu Gold [6][27].

Investment Rating - The industry maintains a "Recommended" rating, with a focus on service consumption, beauty care, IP derivatives, and gold jewelry as new consumption sectors [6][30]. Core Insights - The total retail sales of social consumer goods in 2025 reached 50.12 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.69%. In December, the retail sales totaled 4.51 trillion yuan, growing by 0.9% year-on-year, which was below the consensus expectation of 1.5% [3][24]. - The report highlights significant growth in specific retail categories, with home appliance retail sales increasing by 11%, and retail sales of communication equipment, cultural and office supplies, and furniture growing by 20.9%, 17.3%, and 14.6% respectively [3][24]. - The beauty care sector is seeing innovation, with Proya launching a new PROYA MED series aimed at specific skin repair needs, and Langzi Co. forecasting a net profit of 2.2 to 2.9 billion yuan for 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 1.09% to 33.25% [27][28]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - From January 19 to January 23, 2026, the trade retail, social services, and beauty care sectors increased by 2.16%, 3.20%, and 1.98% respectively, ranking 16th, 12th, and 17th among 31 primary industries [15][20]. Key Industry Data and News - The report notes that the retail sales of consumer goods in 2025 were driven by the replacement of old appliances, with significant growth in various categories. The retail sales of cosmetics grew by 5.1%, while gold and jewelry retail sales increased by 12.8% [24]. - Notable company activities include Bubble Mart's share repurchase of approximately 3.5 billion Hong Kong dollars and the expected profitability turnaround for Guilin Tourism, projecting a net profit of 11 million yuan in 2025 [4][28]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes a focus on service consumption and highlights specific companies such as Ruoyuchen, Maogeping, Shangmei Co., Bubble Mart, Chaohongji, and Laopu Gold as key investment targets [6][30].

Investment Rating - The industry maintains a "Recommended" rating, with a focus on service consumption, beauty care, IP derivatives, and gold jewelry as new consumption sectors [6][30]. Core Insights - The total retail sales of social consumer goods in 2025 reached 50.12 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.69%. In December, the retail sales totaled 4.51 trillion yuan, growing by 0.9% year-on-year, which was below the consensus expectation of 1.5% [3][24]. - The report highlights significant growth in specific retail categories, with home appliance retail sales increasing by 11%, and retail sales of communication equipment, cultural and office supplies, and furniture growing by 20.9%, 17.3%, and 14.6% respectively [3][24]. - The beauty care sector is seeing innovation, with Proya launching a new PROYA MED series aimed at specific skin repair needs, and Langzi Co. forecasting a net profit of 2.2 to 2.9 billion yuan for 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 1.09% to 33.25% [27][28]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - From January 19 to January 23, 2026, the trade retail, social services, and beauty care sectors increased by 2.16%, 3.20%, and 1.98% respectively, ranking 16th, 12th, and 17th among 31 primary industries [15][18]. Key Industry Data and News - The report notes that the retail sales of consumer goods in 2025 were driven by the replacement of old appliances, with significant growth in various categories, including a 15.7% increase in sports and entertainment products [3][24]. - The beauty care sector is highlighted with new product launches and positive earnings forecasts from companies like Langzi and Meili Tianyuan, which expects a revenue of at least 30 billion yuan in 2025, growing by no less than 16% [27][28]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Ruoyu Chen, Mao Ge Ping, Shangmei Co., Pop Mart, Chao Hong Ji, and Lao Pu Gold as potential investment targets within the recommended sectors [6][30].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry, with a focus on new consumption sectors such as beauty care, IP derivatives, and gold jewelry [5][29]. Core Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference prioritized domestic demand, emphasizing the need to build a strong domestic market and implement measures to boost consumption [3][23]. - In November 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) saw a year-on-year increase of 0.7%, with the core CPI rising by 1.2% [3][23]. - The report highlights significant investments in the beauty care sector, including Proya's acquisition of a stake in Beijing Huaguan Biotechnology and L'Oréal increasing its stake in Galderma to 20% [3][23][29]. Market Performance - During the week of December 8-12, 2025, the retail, social services, and beauty care sectors experienced declines of 0.21%, 0.76%, and 1.64% respectively [14][15]. - Notably, the education and general retail sub-sectors saw increases of 1.58% and 1.37% [15][18]. Key Industry Events and News - The National Retail Innovation Development Conference emphasized a shift towards quality-driven and service-driven retail, aiming for high-quality development [4][27]. - The report notes a significant increase in card trading on platforms like Xianyu, with a 21% year-on-year growth in trading volume for the first three quarters of 2025 [4][23]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends specific companies for investment, including Proya, Giant Bio, Marubi, Runben, Chaohongji, and Furuida, focusing on sectors with growth potential [5][29].

Group 1 - The market is characterized by a slow bull trend with reduced volatility and improved Sharpe ratios compared to the past, but subjective long positions have limited improvement [1] - The current market structure shows an increase in allocation-type funds, but there is a lack of incremental funds with individual stock pricing power, leading to higher valuation and safety margin requirements for subjective long positions [1] - A significant change in domestic demand is needed to unlock market potential, with recommendations to focus on resource and traditional manufacturing sectors as well as companies expanding overseas [1] Group 2 - December is expected to be a favorable time for "profit-making effects," with a shift in market dynamics from low to high win rates around the Spring Festival and Two Sessions [2] - The average duration of the "spring market" is about 20 trading days, with a focus on sectors with positive earnings forecasts for the upcoming year [2] - Many sectors have already seen adjustments of around 20%, making December a good time to start observing potential investments [2] Group 3 - The cross-year market is supported by easing overseas disturbances and a warming expectation of global liquidity, with a focus on sectors with high growth forecasts for 2026 [3] - Key sectors to watch include AI, advantageous manufacturing, and structural recovery in domestic demand, with an emphasis on policy support and sustainable valuation recovery [3] - The technology sector is expected to lead the market rally, particularly in AI applications and domestic computing power industries [3] Group 4 - December is anticipated to mark the beginning of a cross-year market rally, with a high probability of upward movement following three months of consolidation [4] - Investment opportunities are expected to arise in non-bank financials and sectors influenced by upcoming policy directions from key meetings [4] - The dual focus on the Shanghai 50 and Sci-Tech 50 indices is seen as advantageous for capitalizing on the cross-year market [4] Group 5 - The market is expected to experience a cross-year rally, with a focus on technology growth and resource sectors [6] - Key industries to consider include non-ferrous metals, AI, new energy, and innovative pharmaceuticals [6] - The theme of commercial aerospace is highlighted as a significant area of interest [6] Group 6 - The A-share market is entering a critical policy observation window, with expectations of increased risk appetite and a favorable environment for cross-year market positioning [7] - Key sectors include commercial aerospace, AI applications, and military technology, which are expected to benefit from policy catalysts [7] - The focus on industries related to the "14th Five-Year Plan" is emphasized for investment opportunities [7] Group 7 - The cross-year and spring market strategies are highlighted as key focus areas for December, with policy factors being a core driver [8] - The market is expected to transition from value-driven to growth-driven dynamics, with small-cap stocks showing strong performance in recent years [8] - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference is anticipated to provide new investment themes if specific industry proposals are introduced [8] Group 8 - The current A-share market is assessed as being in a high-cut-low phase, with expectations of continued volatility until the end of the year [9] - The market's ability to break through the 4000-point level is seen as crucial for future performance, with a need for a transition from liquidity-driven to fundamentals-driven growth [9] - The technology sector is expected to remain sensitive to market conditions, with a focus on resource sectors as potential winners [9] Group 9 - The market is currently in a "slow bull" phase, with significant room for growth, but short-term volatility is expected due to a lack of strong catalysts [10] - Defensive and consumer sectors are recommended for short-term focus, while TMT and advanced manufacturing sectors are highlighted for mid-term investment [10] - The market is anticipated to remain in a consolidation phase, with high-dividend and consumer sectors likely to perform better [10] Group 10 - The foundation supporting the current liquidity-driven bull market remains solid, with potential for improved earnings and capital inflows to extend the bull market [11] - The market may experience volatility due to weak economic data and adjustments in overseas markets, but opportunities for upward movement are expected as policies and funding conditions improve [11] - The focus on clearing capacity and inventory, along with the commercialization of emerging industries like AI, is seen as crucial for market health [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry, with a focus on new consumption sectors such as beauty care, IP derivatives, and gold jewelry [6][30]. Core Insights - The beauty care sector is seeing significant developments, including L'Oréal's minority stake investment in the Chinese skincare brand LAN and Proya's entry into the PDRN market with a new trademark [3][23]. - E-commerce company Yatsen reported a Q3 revenue of RMB 998 million, a 47.5% year-on-year increase, indicating strong growth in the beauty sector [3][23]. - The report highlights the strategic upgrades of Meili Tianyuan, focusing on brand enhancement, chain expansion, and digital transformation [3][23]. Market Performance - For the week of November 17-21, 2025, the retail, social services, and beauty care sectors experienced declines of 7.24%, 4.86%, and 4.53% respectively, ranking 28th, 15th, and 12th among 31 primary industries [15][16]. - The report notes a general downturn in consumer-focused sub-sectors, with trade, general retail, and tourism experiencing the largest declines of 9.12%, 7.49%, and 5.75% respectively [15][16]. Key Industry Events and News - L'Oréal announced a minority investment in LAN, marking its first investment in a local skincare brand in China [3][23]. - Proya launched a new product line under the "PROYA MED" brand, focusing on scientific and medical attributes [3][23]. - The report mentions significant revenue growth for companies like Yatsen and Meili Tianyuan, with Yatsen's Q3 revenue up 47.5% and Meili Tianyuan announcing strategic upgrades [3][23][24]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Proya, Giant Bio, Marubi, Runben, and others within the beauty care and new consumption sectors [6][30].

Core Viewpoints - Current risk release provides an opportunity for reallocating A-shares and Hong Kong stocks by year-end and planning for 2026 [2] - The AI sector is experiencing a "darkest hour," but long-term confidence remains unwavering [4] - The adjustment phase is merely a "doubtful bull market level" [11] Industry Insights - Focus on resource and traditional manufacturing opportunities, particularly in chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and new energy [3] - The AI industry is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with significant valuation growth potential for A-share companies [8] - The market is likely to experience a style switch, with increasing attention on low-valued sectors [6] Investment Recommendations - Emphasize sectors benefiting from physical asset consumption, such as upstream resources (copper, aluminum, lithium, oil, coal) and midstream industries [5] - Maintain a balanced allocation between growth sectors and undervalued value industries, particularly in the consumer sector as year-end approaches [10] - Focus on AI applications and sectors closely related to the "14th Five-Year Plan," such as hydrogen energy, nuclear energy, and quantum technology [14]

Group 1 - The report highlights a strategic shift towards large financial and consumer sectors, indicating a rebound window following the maximum negative impact from equal tariffs [1][9] - The report emphasizes that the market is approaching a phase bottom, with short-term adjustments not altering the long-term upward trend, despite liquidity pressures from the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance [2][9] - Historical analysis of the U.S. stock market shows that significant downturns typically require major negative shocks, with expected maximum adjustments around 10% in the current context [3][10][11] Group 2 - The report notes that market volume has decreased, with transaction amounts falling below 20 trillion yuan, indicating a lack of momentum in market leadership [4][12] - It suggests that the current market adjustment presents a good opportunity for accumulation, focusing on sectors with favorable risk-reward ratios, such as real estate and resource commodities [4][13][14] - The report identifies mid-term investment opportunities in high-growth sectors, waiting for renewed confidence in high-prosperity segments like storage and AI [4][13][14]