Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **Chinese innovative drug development industry**, highlighting improvements in the sector's profitability and investment landscape [1][2][20]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Profitability Cycle**: Innovative drug companies are entering a profitability cycle, with leading firms like **Innovent Biologics** and **BeiGene** expected to exceed performance expectations in the second half of the year [1][3]. 2. **Supportive Factors**: The market for innovative drugs is anticipated to continue its upward trend, supported by policy changes, industry developments, and strong performance metrics. Key policy changes include the acceleration of clinical licensing from 60 days to 30 days and the upcoming implementation of commercial insurance directories [3][21]. 3. **Investment Opportunities**: The call recommends focusing on companies such as **Kangchen Pharmaceutical**, **One Biotech**, **Innovent Biologics**, **3SBio**, and **China Biologic Products** for their promising performance in the A-share and H-share markets [4][5]. 4. **CXO and Life Sciences Services**: The CXO (Contract Research and Manufacturing Organization) and life sciences services sector is experiencing growth, particularly in overseas markets where CDMO companies have seen order growth of over 15% [6][22]. 5. **Funding Sources**: The funding sources for innovative drug development in China have diversified, with business development (BD) upfront payments becoming a significant source of capital, surpassing traditional investment levels [7][22]. 6. **Stem Cell Industry**: Both China and the U.S. have made significant advancements in the stem cell industry, with approvals for stem cell products aimed at treating graft-versus-host disease [10][11]. 7. **IVD Industry Trends**: The IVD (in vitro diagnostics) industry has stabilized after a period of decline, with expectations of a 10% growth in diagnostic volumes next year [16][17]. 8. **AI in Healthcare**: The integration of AI in healthcare is still in its nascent stages, with no significant commercialized products yet, but ongoing developments are being monitored [18]. 9. **Pharmacy Industry Dynamics**: The pharmacy sector is facing challenges due to regulatory scrutiny, which may lead to increased industry consolidation [19]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Recovery**: The innovative drug IPO market in Hong Kong is showing signs of recovery, with a notable increase in the number of IPOs and fundraising amounts [21][22]. - **Performance Metrics**: Companies like **Guan Li Tonghua** and **Lianbang Pharmaceutical** are expected to perform well in their insulin business, indicating strong market potential [14]. - **Weight Loss Drugs**: **Kangyuan Pharmaceutical** has two promising weight loss drugs that are gaining attention due to their favorable safety data [13]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and developments discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the innovative drug development industry in China.

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The policy direction focuses on "ensuring basic needs and strengthening innovation," aiming to enhance accessibility and affordability of medical products and services while promoting innovation across the pharmaceutical industry [4][7] - The support for innovative drugs continues to increase, with measures to enhance their quality development and integration into insurance systems [12][13] - The report highlights the ongoing collection and procurement processes for various drug categories, including generic drugs, traditional Chinese medicine, and high-value consumables, indicating a trend towards optimization and expansion [21][24][31] Summary by Sections 1. Top-Level Design Direction - The central government has issued guidelines to enhance social security and improve public services, particularly in the healthcare sector, emphasizing the need for equitable access to medical resources [7][8] 2. Support for Innovative Drugs - The National Healthcare Security Administration (NHSA) and the National Health Commission have released measures to support the high-quality development of innovative drugs, including multi-channel payment systems and international promotion [12][13] - The introduction of a separate payment mechanism for long-term and high-cost drugs is being implemented in various provinces, enhancing accessibility for patients [14][16] 3. Generic Drugs - The report anticipates optimization of the rules for the 11th batch of drug procurement, which is expected to take place in 2025, focusing on quality and price adjustments [21][23] 4. Traditional Chinese Medicine - The procurement rules for traditional Chinese medicine are becoming clearer, with expectations for quality improvements and market expansion [24][26] 5. High-Value Consumables - The report notes that most high-value consumable procurement has been completed, with ongoing attention to key product renewals and the expansion of procurement coverage [31][32] 6. In Vitro Diagnostics (IVD) - The report discusses the dual approach of alliance procurement and service price governance, indicating a comprehensive strategy to enhance the IVD sector [35][38] 7. Industry Regulation - Regulatory measures are being strengthened to guide high-quality development in the healthcare sector, including ongoing efforts to combat corruption and ensure compliance among medical institutions and retail pharmacies [8][9] 8. Real-Time Medical Insurance Settlement - The NHSA plans to implement real-time settlement of basic medical insurance funds by the second half of 2025, which is expected to alleviate cash flow pressures for medical institutions [9][10]

Macro Analysis - The current macro variables affecting the market are internal demand recovery, policy implementation effects, and external environment changes[3] - The easing of US-China tariff negotiations helps alleviate pressure on the fundamentals and market risk appetite, but the relationship remains competitive[3] - The economy is undergoing an L-shaped recovery, with manageable short-term pressures on foreign trade and employment, while low inflation remains a core challenge[3] Policy Insights - The policy focus is on the effectiveness of existing policies and the introduction of incremental reserve tools, with a dynamic calibration approach expected[3] - The emphasis is on promoting the effectiveness of existing policies, particularly concerning employment and systemic risks, while external shocks remain uncertain[3] Investment Strategy - A strategic bullish outlook on Hong Kong stocks is recommended, as de-dollarization benefits liquidity-sensitive stocks[3] - A "barbell" asset allocation strategy is suggested, focusing on resilient dividend assets in finance, resources, and public utilities, while technology remains a key theme[3] Company Highlights - Zhuoyue New Energy (688196.SH) is a pioneer in biodiesel production, with a production capacity of 500,000 tons and a focus on raw material substitution and trade breakthroughs[9] - Yipuli (002096.SZ) achieved revenue of 8.546 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit of 713 million yuan, driven by cost control and increased procurement efforts[14] - Zijin Mining (601899.SH) expects copper production to reach 1.15 million tons in 2025, with significant growth targets set for 2028[21] Risk Considerations - Risks include potential policy support falling short of expectations, execution delays, and slower-than-expected economic recovery[5] - For Zhuoyue New Energy, risks involve policy advancement not meeting expectations and significant fluctuations in raw material prices[12]

Core Insights - The pharmaceutical sector is expected to recover from 2025 onwards, following a four-year adjustment period, with a cumulative increase of 4.57% in the pharmaceutical and biological industry as of May 30, 2025 [1][2] - The report suggests focusing on innovative drug companies with solid R&D foundations and competitive products for international markets, as well as traditional pharmaceutical companies with reasonable valuations [1] - AI is anticipated to empower the entire pharmaceutical supply chain, enhancing efficiency in drug development, production, and medical services [2] Group 1: Market Recovery - The pharmaceutical sector has experienced a recovery since 2025, ranking 6th among 31 primary industries in terms of performance, with a cumulative increase of 4.57% [1] - The holding of pharmaceutical stocks has increased but remains at historically low levels [1] - Multiple sub-sectors within the pharmaceutical industry are showing signs of stabilization and upward trends [1] Group 2: Growth Opportunities - Incremental opportunities are expected from innovative drugs and AI, while structural opportunities may arise from the recovery of left-side assets and valuation adjustments [2] - 2025 is projected to be a significant year for domestic innovative drugs entering international markets, with many companies transitioning from generic to innovative drugs since the "4+7" procurement policy in 2018 [2] - Some pioneering innovative drug companies are anticipated to reach breakeven and turn profitable [2] Group 3: Left-Side Assets - Left-side assets are entering a mild recovery phase, with traditional pharmaceutical companies, CXO, and consumer healthcare sectors gradually clearing existing risks [2] - The industry is expected to see a fundamental recovery as the risks associated with previous procurement policies and demand issues diminish [2]

证券研究报告：医药生物|行业周报 发布时间：2025-06-16 行业投资评级 强于大市 |维持 行业基本情况 | 收盘点位 | | 7895.79 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 8490.25 | | 52 周最低 | | 6070.89 | 行业相对指数表现 2024-06 2024-08 2024-11 2025-01 2025-04 2025-06 -14% -11% -8% -5% -2% 1% 4% 7% 10% 13% 16% 19% 医药生物 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:蔡明子 SAC 登记编号:S1340523110001 Email:caimingzi@cnpsec.com 分析师:龙永茂 SAC 登记编号:S1340523110002 Email:longyongmao@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 推荐标的：英科医疗、迈普医学、怡和嘉业、微电生理、 拱东医疗、派林生物、益丰药房、大参林、康臣药业、佐力药 业、桂林三金、天士力、新里程、美年健康、国际医学。 《政策支持上市公司通过并购重组高 质量发展，行业整合持 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2][50]. Core Viewpoints - The FDA's recent decision to gradually eliminate animal testing requirements for monoclonal antibodies and other drugs is expected to benefit AI-driven drug development, potentially accelerating new drug approvals and reducing R&D costs [5][6][14][16]. - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector experienced a decline of 5.61% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.73 percentage points, ranking 22nd among 31 sub-industries [19][24]. Summary by Sections Weekly Insights - The FDA's announcement on April 11, 2025, aims to replace animal testing with more effective and human-relevant methods, which could enhance drug safety and lower costs [14][15]. - The shift is anticipated to accelerate drug development timelines and improve success rates, particularly benefiting companies involved in AI drug development such as Jingtai Holdings and Chengdu Xian Dao [6][17]. Subsector Performance - The blood products sector saw the highest increase this week, rising by 4.06%, while the medical outsourcing sector faced the largest decline at 16.04% [7][23]. - The medical device sector decreased by 2.62%, and the traditional Chinese medicine sector fell by 3.35% [7][23]. Recommended and Benefiting Stocks - Recommended stocks include Weidian Physiotherapy, Maipu Medical, and Yingke Medical [8][31]. - Benefiting stocks from the FDA policy change include Jingtai Holdings, Chengdu Xian Dao, and Hongbo Pharmaceutical [6][17]. Detailed Subsector Analysis - **Medical Devices**: The sector is expected to benefit from the "old-for-new" policy and increased procurement activities in Q2 2025, with a current P/E ratio of 32.15, indicating potential for valuation growth [27][29]. - **Medical Consumables**: This sector is under pressure due to US-China tariff impacts, but certain segments are expected to perform well due to high growth potential and improved conditions [30]. - **IVD Sector**: The IVD sector is projected to recover as AI technologies enhance diagnostic capabilities, despite current pressures from procurement policies [33]. - **Blood Products**: The sector is expected to benefit from rising domestic production and increased focus on local sourcing due to tariff impacts [35]. - **Retail Pharmacy**: The offline pharmacy sector is seeing a recovery in customer traffic and profitability, with major players expected to leverage AI for operational efficiency [37][38].