格隆汇12月16日｜长江证券研报指出，中伟股份在2025年11月17日完成H股发行并在香港联交所主板挂 牌上市，港交所上市是中伟"技术多元化、发展全球化、运营数智化、产业生态化"战略的关键落子，更 是中国新能源材料企业服务全球零碳经济的新起点。后续有望打造全球产能协同体系，实现对全球客户 的快速响应与高效交付。拆分来看，公司2025Q3的三元前驱体材料出货环比持续增长，景气度持续恢 复；四氧化三钴材料的出货环比维持高位，同比预计高增，得益于消费电池链高景气；磷酸铁出货环比 预计略有增长，产能利用率已达高位。展望来看，中伟股份三元前驱体、四氧化三钴等业务持续增长， 且增速有望高于行业水平，市占率持续提升，后续考虑三元前驱体景气恢复，四钴持续增长，出货端有 望持续增长。预计2026年归母净利润22亿元，继续推荐。 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [5]. Core Views - The company has been officially included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect, which accelerates its overseas expansion [3]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 11.975 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 18.84% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 13.67%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 380 million yuan, down 17.33% year-on-year and down 10.65% quarter-on-quarter [3][8]. - The company completed its H-share issuance and was listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on November 17, 2025, marking a key step in its strategy for technological diversification and global development [8]. Financial Performance - The company’s Q3 2025 financial data shows a gross profit margin of 12%, with total revenue projected to reach 40.223 billion yuan in 2027, increasing to 66.928 billion yuan by 2027 [13]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 2.2 billion yuan in 2026 and 2.775 billion yuan in 2027 [13]. - The company’s financial expenses in Q3 2025 were 345 million yuan, reflecting an increase due to exchange rate impacts [8]. Market Position and Outlook - The company’s three-element precursor materials and cobalt oxide materials are expected to continue growing, with growth rates anticipated to exceed industry levels [8]. - The utilization rate of phosphate iron has significantly improved, and profitability is expected to show improvement, contributing to incremental performance [8]. - Nickel resource production is expected to remain stable, with potential for improved profitability if nickel prices recover [8].

Core Viewpoint - The company has completed the investment projects funded by the public issuance of convertible bonds and will permanently supplement its working capital with the remaining funds, amounting to 265.96 million yuan [2][5]. Group 1: Fundraising Basic Situation - The fundraising project includes the production of high-nickel ternary cathode materials and nickel sulfate, among others, which have reached the expected usable state as of September 30, 2025 [2][4]. - The total remaining amount from the fundraising is 26,595.79 thousand yuan, which will be used for daily production and operations [2]. Group 2: Project Completion and Fund Surplus - The projects funded by the convertible bonds have been completed and are operational, meeting the conditions for project completion [2][4]. - The remaining funds will be used to enhance the efficiency of fund utilization and reduce financial costs, without adversely affecting the company's normal operations [3][5]. Group 3: Review Procedures and Opinions - The audit committee and board of directors have approved the project completion and the use of surplus funds, confirming compliance with regulatory requirements and protection of shareholder interests [3][4][5]. - The surplus funds account for 3.52% of the net amount raised from the convertible bond issuance, which does not exceed the 10% threshold, thus not requiring shareholder meeting approval [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Greeenmei Co., Ltd. is pursuing an H-share listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to accelerate its global expansion in the circular economy sector [1][2][4] - Greenmei's business encompasses two main areas: the production of ternary precursor materials and resource recycling, establishing a comprehensive value chain in the new energy lifecycle [2][3] - In the first half of 2025, Greenmei achieved a revenue of 17.561 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.28%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 799 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 13.91% [2] Group 2 - The H-share listing faces dual challenges: intensifying competition in the global new energy supply chain and the immature valuation logic of circular economy companies in the Hong Kong market [3] - Successful H-share IPO would be a critical step in Greenmei's global capital layout, with significant funding needed for its nickel production expansion in Indonesia and the deployment of intelligent dismantling equipment [3] - The listing represents a deep engagement of a circular economy leader with the capital market and reflects the transformation and upgrading of China's manufacturing industry [4]

Core Viewpoint - Indonesia is accelerating its energy transition with a nationwide "Village Cooperative Million Solar Plan," aiming to deploy 100GW of solar capacity over the next five years, which is seen as a significant opportunity for clean energy access and reducing diesel dependency [4][6]. Group 1: Energy Transition in Indonesia - The Indonesian government has approved a plan to deploy 100GW of solar power, with 80GW in a "1MW solar + 4MWh storage" format across 80,000 villages, and 20GW in centralized solar power plants [4]. - Indonesia's power generation has been heavily reliant on fossil fuels, particularly coal, which constitutes over 80% of total generation, while renewable energy sources remain low but are steadily increasing [4][6]. - The country aims to enhance its renewable energy capacity and introduce storage technologies to improve system flexibility and accommodate new energy sources [4][6]. Group 2: Renewable Energy Goals - By 2030, Indonesia's renewable energy capacity is projected to reach approximately 29.3GW of solar energy, with a total renewable energy increase of 42.6GW, and 5.3GW specifically from photovoltaic systems [6][8]. - The solar energy potential in Indonesia is significant, with an overall photovoltaic capacity exceeding 207GW, and by 2050, solar installations could rise to 264.6GW [6][8]. Group 3: Energy Storage Market - Indonesia's energy storage market is in an exploratory phase, with a current installed capacity of 0.4GWh expected to grow to 70GWh by 2030, reflecting an annual growth rate of approximately 136.5% [10]. - The demand for energy storage systems is anticipated to increase due to rising electricity needs and improvements in grid infrastructure, focusing on frequency regulation, load balancing, and backup power [10]. Group 4: Lithium Battery Industry - The lithium battery industry in Indonesia is still in its infancy, heavily reliant on external supply chains for key materials like cathodes, anodes, electrolytes, and separators [10]. - Local manufacturing capabilities and technological systems are underdeveloped, with most local enterprises collaborating with foreign companies or importing finished products to meet project demands [10].

Core Viewpoint - ST Pava is facing a severe governance and financial crisis, highlighted by the investigation of its co-controller and director Zhang Bao for embezzlement, alongside significant management changes and financial misreporting [1][2][3]. Financial Issues - ST Pava's financial troubles began in its second year post-IPO, with a reported revenue of 1.17 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year decline of 29.26%, and a net loss of 97.37 million yuan, marking a 166.79% decrease [3]. - The company experienced further losses in 2024, with a net loss expanding to 727 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 193.37% [3]. - The company raised 1.743 billion yuan during its IPO, but its market value has since plummeted to 1.592 billion yuan, below the net amount raised [6]. Governance and Management Changes - Zhang Bao, the co-controller and director, was formally investigated for embezzlement, having previously resigned from his roles as chairman and general manager due to "personal health reasons" [2]. - Recent management changes include the resignation of key personnel, such as the deputy general manager and core technical staff, which has raised concerns about the company's operational stability [5]. Internal Control and Compliance Issues - The company has been flagged for significant internal control deficiencies, leading to inaccurate financial reporting and a warning from the Zhejiang Securities Regulatory Bureau [4]. - Issues identified include inflated revenue figures, inadequate inventory depreciation provisions, and mismanagement of company seals, which have contributed to the company's financial misreporting [4]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - ST Pava operates in a highly competitive market for ternary precursor materials, facing pressure from larger firms like Huayou Cobalt and Greeenme, which have strengthened their market positions through technological advancements [6]. - Despite attempts to pivot towards high-end products, the company has struggled to convert these efforts into profitability, exacerbating its survival challenges [6]. Customer and Market Confidence - The company has faced scrutiny regarding the qualifications of its major customers, which has further eroded market confidence [7]. - As of August 4, ST Pava's stock price fell to 9.95 yuan per share, reflecting a continued decline in investor sentiment [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights increasing concerns over the supply of battery metals, particularly nickel and cobalt, due to tightening policies in key producing countries like Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of Congo, which may disrupt the global electric vehicle supply chain [1][2][3]. Group 1: Nickel Supply Concerns - Indonesia, the world's largest nickel producer, has been signaling tighter control over nickel resources since 2025, with the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources indicating a potential reduction in mining quotas to protect high-grade nickel reserves [1][2]. - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association approved a mining quota of 298.5 million wet tons, higher than last year, but the government is reviewing this to prevent resource depletion [1][2]. - The planned increase in mining and processing costs includes raising the nickel mining tax rate from a fixed 10% to a range of 14%-19%, which could elevate operational costs for mining companies and ultimately increase nickel prices [1][2]. Group 2: Pricing Mechanisms and Market Impact - Indonesia is adjusting the calculation frequency of the metal mineral benchmark price (HPM) from monthly to twice a month to better reflect market values and capture price fluctuations, particularly during price increases [2]. - As of March 24, nickel prices in Indonesia have been rising, with a reported supply-demand gap of approximately 5,000 tons for battery-grade nickel sulfate in Q1 [2]. - The tightening supply from Indonesia is compounded by the Democratic Republic of Congo's efforts to manage global cobalt supply and prices amid its export ban [2][3]. Group 3: Broader Market Dynamics - The Philippines has also decided to halt new mining permits in key nickel-producing areas and may soon pass a bill to ban raw ore exports, aiming to develop its downstream processing industry [3]. - The increasing nationalism among resource-rich countries is driven by the desire to capitalize on the booming demand for electric vehicles, which has led to significant price volatility for lithium, cobalt, and nickel [3]. - The reliance on Indonesian MHP (Mixed Hydroxide Precipitate) for cobalt supply is creating new uncertainties regarding supply stability and costs, impacting the already high cobalt prices faced by ternary material producers [4]. Group 4: Production and Technological Implications - The high raw material costs are suppressing the purchasing willingness of downstream nickel sulfate manufacturers, leading to a reduction in production rates, with China's nickel sulfate production capacity operating at less than 50% as of March [4]. - Although low-cobalt strategies may alleviate some pressure on cobalt prices, the high-nickel route is crucial for enhancing the energy density of ternary batteries, which currently account for 40-50% of the ternary materials market [4]. - The tightening nickel supply could introduce uncertainties during a critical period for cost reduction and market penetration of next-generation battery technologies [4].

Battery - Qingtao Energy has added three new models to its lineup, all utilizing lithium iron phosphate batteries with capacities ranging from 40-51 kWh [2] - China FAW Group's acquisition of a stake in Lishen (Qingdao) New Energy Co., Ltd. has been approved by the market regulatory authority [3] - Volkswagen China and CATL have reached a cooperation intention in the battery swapping sector, although specific plans are still in the planning stage [4] Materials - A new project for the annual production of 10,000 tons of silicon-based anode materials has commenced in Gansu Province, with a total investment of 1 billion yuan [4] - Ganfeng Lithium has activated its emergency supply channel plan due to a surge in cobalt prices caused by supply disruptions from the Democratic Republic of the Congo [5][6] - Tianji Co. has completed the main construction and equipment installation for its 6,000-ton high-purity lithium fluoride project and is set to begin trial production [7] - Huayou Cobalt's high-nickel ternary precursor project in Indonesia has completed its second phase of mechanical construction [9] Equipment - Aifake has developed a roll-to-roll vacuum deposition system for lithium on metal foils, set to begin sales in May 2025, which enhances lithium material efficiency and offers cost and environmental advantages [10]