证券研究报告 公司研究 / 公司点评 2026 年 03 月 03 日 自主占比提升，新能源与出口贡献增量 ——上汽集团（600104.SH）公司销量点评 报告原因： 投资要点： 相关研究 《智能化新品周期+出海驱动，革新成效渐显 ——上汽集团（600104.SH）公司销量点评》 2026-01-09 《巨头革新，华为助力——上汽集团 （600104.SH）首次覆盖》2025-12-17 财务数据及盈利预测 | 吴迪 | 报告期 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | S0820525010001 | 营业总收入（百万元） | 744,705 | 627,590 | 668,572 | 697,788 | 746,773 | | 021-32229888-25523 | 同比增长率（%） | 0.1% | -15.7% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 7.0% | | wudi@ajzq.com | 归母净利润（百万元） | 14,106 | 1,666 | 10,751 | 1 ...

Core Insights - Volkswagen Group's global vehicle deliveries in 2025 exceeded 8.98 million, with pure electric vehicle deliveries reaching 983,100, a year-on-year increase of 32%, accounting for 10.9% of total global sales, up 2.7 percentage points from the previous year [2] Group 1: Sales Performance - In China, Volkswagen delivered over 2.69 million vehicles in 2025, with over 2.57 million being fuel vehicles and approximately 120,000 being new energy vehicles [2] - Volkswagen's sales in China declined by 8% compared to the previous year (2.93 million), with its share of global sales dropping from 32% to between 29.9% and 30% [3] - The market share of fuel vehicles in China increased to over 22%, marking a ten-year high since 2005, despite an overall decline in fuel vehicle sales [3] Group 2: New Energy Vehicle Strategy - New energy vehicle sales in China fell to 120,000 in 2025, a 40% decrease from 200,000 in 2024, representing only 4.5% of total sales, significantly lower than the global average [4] - Volkswagen's strategy focuses on profitability over market share, emphasizing the importance of fuel vehicle sales while preparing for the launch of new energy models [5] - The decline in new energy vehicle sales is attributed to both competitive pressures and a strategic shift towards fuel vehicles [5] Group 3: Future Plans and Developments - Volkswagen plans to launch over 20 new electric and hybrid models in 2026, including models based on new platforms and advanced technologies [7] - The company aims to enhance its new energy vehicle matrix to increase their share in overall sales, with a target of over 30 electric models by 2027 and around 50 by 2030 [8] - Volkswagen's export strategy from China has commenced, with the first vehicles successfully exported to the Middle East, aiming to expand into other potential markets [8]

Core Insights - Volkswagen Group delivered over 8.98 million vehicles globally in 2025, with electric vehicle deliveries reaching 983,100 units, a 32% year-on-year increase, making up 10.9% of total sales, up 2.7 percentage points from the previous year [1] - In China, Volkswagen achieved over 2.69 million vehicle deliveries, maintaining its position as the top foreign carmaker in the market, while emphasizing a strategy focused on profitability rather than market share [1] - The company plans to launch over 20 new electric and hybrid models in China by 2026, enhancing its product offerings with advanced driving assistance systems [3][4] Group 1 - Volkswagen Group's electric vehicle sales in 2025 accounted for 10.9% of total sales, reflecting a significant growth in the electric vehicle segment [1] - The company delivered over 2.57 million fuel vehicles in China, capturing more than 22% of the fuel vehicle market, with its brands leading in various segments [1] - Volkswagen's strategy emphasizes "value first," focusing on profitability and preparing for the launch of new energy models [1] Group 2 - The "In China, For China" strategy has entered a delivery phase, with new electric and intelligent connected models receiving positive market feedback [2] - Volkswagen's export strategy commenced in 2025, with initial vehicles successfully exported to the Middle East, and plans to expand into ASEAN, Middle East, Central Asia, Latin America, and Africa [2] - The company aims to strengthen local R&D capabilities, having invested over €3.5 billion in Hefei since 2023 to establish an innovation center for intelligent connected vehicles [4] Group 3 - By 2027, Volkswagen plans to introduce over 30 electric models in China, increasing to approximately 50 by 2030, with around 30 being fully electric [4] - The development cycle for new vehicles has been shortened by about 30%, with costs optimized by approximately 40% through a "software-defined vehicle" approach [5] - Volkswagen is enhancing its local capabilities in advanced driving assistance systems through partnerships and plans to design and develop system-level chips in China [5] Group 4 - The competitive landscape in the Chinese automotive market is shifting towards technology, experience, and efficiency, necessitating foreign carmakers to maintain profitability in fuel vehicles while advancing in new energy and intelligent technology [6] - Volkswagen's disclosed sales data and product plans reflect a strategy of stabilizing cash flow, accelerating new technology delivery, and strengthening local R&D [6] - The upcoming launch of over 20 new energy models in 2026 will be critical for validating Volkswagen's competitiveness in the Chinese market [6]

Core Viewpoint - The automotive market in China is expected to experience cautious optimism for 2026, with predictions of a decline in passenger car sales after a peak in 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Market Predictions - Morgan Stanley forecasts a 9% year-on-year growth in China's passenger car sales in 2025, followed by a 5% decline in 2026 [2]. - Despite continued growth in new energy vehicle (NEV) sales and exports, there may be a 30% drop in the first quarter due to changes in subsidies and purchase tax policies, impacting overall annual sales [3]. Group 2: Industry Competition - The consensus is that the Chinese automotive industry is entering a decisive phase, with expectations that only 5-10 NEV companies will survive in the coming years [7]. - As competition intensifies, there are indications of a significant influx of new models, with at least 24 different new energy vehicles expected to be launched, indicating fierce competition ahead [8][9]. Group 3: Key Trends for 2026 - Key themes for 2026 include technological iteration, configuration upgrades, larger vehicle sizes, and responses from joint ventures [10].