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中金:提物价待需求端发力——2025年7月物价数据点评
中金点睛· 2025-08-10 23:55
Core Viewpoint - In July, the "anti-involution" policy led to a narrowing of the PPI month-on-month decline to -0.2%, while the CPI for industrial consumer goods improved, contributing to a third consecutive month of core CPI year-on-year recovery. However, the impact of supply-side capacity management on prices is more moderate compared to 2016, with PPI year-on-year decline remaining at a two-year low of -3.6% and CPI year-on-year turning flat [2][19]. Group 1: CPI Analysis - The CPI year-on-year remained flat at 0.0% in July, primarily dragged down by food items, while core CPI rose to 0.8% [4]. - Food prices decreased by 1.6% year-on-year, with the decline widening by 1.3 percentage points compared to the previous month, contributing a marginal drag of 0.30 percentage points to the overall CPI [8]. - Seasonal supply of fresh vegetables and fruits was abundant, leading to a significant year-on-year decline in their prices, with fresh vegetables down 7.6% and fresh fruits up 2.8% [8][11]. Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI month-on-month decline narrowed from -0.4% to -0.2% in July, but the year-on-year decline remained at -3.6%, indicating limited effectiveness of the "anti-involution" measures on price uplift [19]. - Key industries such as coal, steel, and cement have implemented capacity management measures, which have led to a reduction in the month-on-month price declines for these sectors [19]. - International factors continue to pressure export-related prices, while domestic oil and non-ferrous metal prices have seen increases due to external input factors [20]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The "anti-involution" measures have led to a faster increase in futures prices compared to spot prices, indicating market expectations are ahead of actual supply-side adjustments [24]. - Looking ahead, the diminishing drag from tailing factors may lead to improvements in PPI year-on-year in August and CPI year-on-year in the fourth quarter, but sustained inflation recovery will require stronger policy support and a focus on expanding domestic demand [24]. - The current supply-side price uplift is more challenging and softer compared to 2016, with a broader range of industries involved, including upstream raw materials and downstream sectors [24].
分析|扩内需政策效应持续显现,7月核心CPI同比涨幅回升至0.8%
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-09 09:57
Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Insights - In July, the national Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained flat year-on-year and increased by 0.4% month-on-month, with an average decline of 0.1% from January to July compared to the previous year [1] - The decline in food prices significantly impacted the CPI, with food prices dropping by 1.6% year-on-year, contributing approximately 0.29 percentage points to the CPI's year-on-year decline [5][6] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking the highest level since March 2024, indicating a gradual improvement in market supply and demand relationships [6][10] Group 2: Producer Price Index (PPI) Insights - In July, the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with the decline narrowing for the first time since March, while the year-on-year decline remained at 3.6% [8][9] - The PPI's year-on-year decline has ended a four-month trend of increasing declines, with some industries showing price recovery due to improved supply-demand relationships [9][12] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to support a rebound in industrial product prices, particularly in August, although overall PPI month-on-month growth is anticipated to be around 0.0% [12][13] Group 3: Economic Policies and Market Trends - The ongoing effects of demand expansion policies are leading to positive changes in consumer prices, with service prices rising by 0.6% month-on-month, contributing significantly to the CPI increase [6][10] - The "anti-involution" policy is projected to reshape industry supply-demand structures, particularly in overcapacity sectors, potentially leading to a more reasonable price recovery [13] - The overall economic environment remains uncertain, with external trade conditions and domestic demand pressures influencing price trends [11][12]
【新华解读】宏观政策“组合拳”持续显效 7月份多项物价指标改善
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-08-09 08:49
国内需求继续修复 7月份物价运行边际改善 国家统计局8月9日发布的数据显示,7月份,我国CPI环比由上月下降0.1%转为上涨0.4%,涨幅高于季 节性水平0.1个百分点,同比持平;扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨0.8%,涨幅连续3个月扩 大,为2024年3月以来最高。"这表明国内需求继续修复。"广开首席产业研究院首席金融研究员王运金 说。 物价是反映市场供需情况的重要指标。上半年,我国CPI同比下降0.1%,意味着国内消费仍然有待提 振。"这也给下半年我国宏观政策,特别是货币政策提出了新要求。"中国人民大学经济学院教授范志勇 说,预计下半年货币政策还会进一步发力。 事实上,从中央到各有关部门对当前价格和内需形势都有着深刻认识和共识。宏观政策部署更为超前。 今年6月24日,中国人民银行、国家发展改革委、财政部、商务部等6部门就联合对外发布了《关于金融 支持提振和扩大消费的指导意见》,从支持增强消费能力、扩大消费领域金融供给、挖掘释放居民消费 潜力、促进提升消费供给效能、优化消费环境和政策支撑保障等六个方面提出19项重点举措。 7月1日召开的中央财经委员会第六次会议强调,纵深推进全国统一大市场建设,要聚焦 ...
7月份物价数据发布!金饰品价格同比上涨37.1%
Zheng Quan Ri Bao Wang· 2025-08-09 02:27
Group 1: CPI Analysis - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.4% month-on-month in July, which is 0.1 percentage points higher than the seasonal level [3] - The rise in CPI was primarily driven by increases in service and industrial consumer goods prices, with service prices up 0.6% and industrial consumer goods prices up 0.5% [3] - Seasonal factors, such as the summer travel peak, contributed to significant price increases in air tickets (17.9%), tourism (9.1%), hotel accommodation (6.9%), and vehicle rentals (4.4%) [3] Group 2: Core CPI Insights - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking the highest level since March 2024 [4] - Jewelry prices, particularly gold and platinum, saw substantial increases of 37.1% and 27.3% respectively, contributing approximately 0.22 percentage points to the CPI [4] - Food prices experienced a year-on-year decline of 1.6%, primarily due to high base effects from the previous year, which negatively impacted the overall CPI [4] Group 3: PPI Overview - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, but the decline was less severe than in previous months, marking the first month of narrowing decline since March [5] - Seasonal factors and uncertainties in international trade contributed to price decreases in certain industries, while domestic market competition improved, leading to reduced price declines in sectors like coal, steel, and solar energy [5][6] - Year-on-year, the PPI fell by 3.6%, with some industries experiencing price recoveries due to macroeconomic policies and demand improvements [6]
国家统计局:7月核心CPI同比持续回升 PPI环比降幅收窄
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-08-09 01:58
Group 1: CPI Analysis - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a month-on-month increase of 0.4% in July, reversing a previous decline of 0.1% in June, primarily driven by rising service and industrial goods prices [2][3] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking the highest increase since March 2024, with jewelry prices significantly contributing to this rise [2][3] - Food prices decreased by 1.6% year-on-year, influenced by a high base from the previous year, which negatively impacted the overall CPI [3] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, but the decline was less severe than in previous months, indicating a potential stabilization in certain sectors [4][5] - Year-on-year, the PPI fell by 3.6%, with some industries experiencing price recovery due to improved supply-demand dynamics and ongoing industrial upgrades [5][6] - Specific sectors such as traditional industries and emerging industries showed positive price movements, with notable increases in prices for products like caustic soda and aircraft manufacturing [5][6]
国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟解读2025年7月份CPI和PPI数据
Guo Jia Tong Ji Ju· 2025-08-09 01:39
Group 1: CPI Analysis - In July, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.4% month-on-month, reversing a previous decline of 0.1%, with a year-on-year change remaining flat [1][2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking the highest increase since March 2024, and has expanded for three consecutive months [1][2] - Service prices contributed significantly to the CPI increase, with a month-on-month rise of 0.6%, driven by seasonal factors such as summer travel [2] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, but the decline was less than the previous month, indicating a narrowing of the drop for the first time since March [1][4] - Year-on-year, the PPI fell by 3.6%, with the decline remaining consistent with the previous month, reflecting ongoing macroeconomic policies and improvements in supply-demand relationships in certain industries [1][5] - Seasonal factors and international trade uncertainties have influenced price changes in various sectors, with notable decreases in construction materials and energy-related prices [4][5]
【抓四稳 勇担当 】出口增长10.3% 1-4月江苏外贸交出超预期“韧性答卷”
Yang Zi Wan Bao Wang· 2025-05-18 10:47
Core Viewpoint - Jiangsu's foreign trade has shown resilience and growth despite external challenges, with a total import and export value of 1.85 trillion yuan in the first four months of the year, marking a 5.7% increase year-on-year, and a 10.3% increase in exports [1][17]. Group 1: Trade Performance - In the first four months of 2023, Jiangsu's total goods trade value reached 1.85 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.7% [1]. - Exports from Jiangsu increased by 10.3% during the same period, indicating a robust performance amidst external pressures [1]. Group 2: Business Adaptation - Many foreign trade companies in Jiangsu are ramping up production and fulfilling orders as trade with the U.S. resumes [3]. - Jiangsu Huaten Personal Care Products Co. has received new orders from U.S. clients, signaling a recovery in trade relationships [5]. - Companies are diversifying their markets and integrating digital marketing strategies to navigate uncertainties [7]. Group 3: Government Support - The Jiangsu government has implemented supportive policies to assist businesses, including the establishment of foreign trade work teams to address companies' needs [13]. - A cross-border e-commerce service platform has been developed to provide comprehensive support for companies looking to expand internationally [15]. Group 4: Market Opportunities - Jiangsu's cross-border e-commerce platforms saw a 63.8% year-on-year increase in imports and exports from January to April [11]. - Trade fairs and events have been organized to connect businesses with potential partners, resulting in significant order signings, such as over 400 million yuan at a recent home textile product fair [11].
通达创智:首次公开发行股票上市公告书
2023-03-09 12:40
通达创智(厦门)股份有限公司 TONGDA SMART TECH (XIAMEN) CO., LTD. (厦门市海沧区东孚街道鼎山中路 89 号) 首次公开发行股票上市公告书 保荐机构(主承销商) (成都市青羊区东城根上街 95 号) 二零二三年三月十日 1 特别提示 通达创智(厦门)股份有限公司(以下简称"通达创智"、"发行人"、"本公 司"、"公司")股票将于 2023 年 3 月 13 日在深圳证券交易所上市。本公司提醒 投资者应充分了解股票市场风险及本公司披露的风险因素,在新股上市初期切忌 盲目跟风"炒新",应当审慎决策、理性投资。 如无特别说明,本上市公告书中的简称或名词释义与本公司首次公开发行股 票招股说明书中的相同。本上市公告书数值通常保留至小数点后两位,若出现总 数与各分项数值之和尾数不符的情况,均为四舍五入所致。 2 第一节 重要声明与提示 本公司及全体董事、监事、高级管理人员保证上市公告书的真实性、准确性、 完整性,承诺上市公告书不存在虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏,并依法承 担法律责任。 深圳证券交易所、有关政府机关对本公司股票上市及有关事项的意见,均不 表明对本公司的任何保证。 本公 ...