Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core Views - **Stock Index**: The current stock index futures market shows a pattern of "strong small - cap and stable large - cap". The positive news from the negotiation has ended, and the technology sector related to IM has positive catalysts. Domestic stock indices may fluctuate. The US 5 - month CPI increased by 2.4% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month, falling short of expectations for the fourth consecutive month. China and the US have basically reached an agreement framework. The US Treasury Secretary said the inflation data was "very good" and there were other related statements [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On Wednesday, the bond market continued to be favorable, with yields of bonds of various maturities declining slightly. Overnight funds returned below 1.4%, dispelling market concerns. Although the equity market strengthened on Wednesday, the bond market was not much affected. Currently, the two markets are trading their own main lines. The bond market is benefiting from the resonance of fundamentals, funds, and the approaching end of the supply peak. Be patient with the subsequent decline in interest rates [3]. 3. Strategy Recommendations - **Stock Index**: The stock index is expected to fluctuate [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Allocate on dips [4]. 4. Market Review - **Stock Index**: The main contract futures of CSI 300 rose 0.89%, SSE 50 rose 0.79%, CSI 500 rose 0.75%, and CSI 1000 rose 0.63% [6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The 10 - year main contract rose 0.06%, the 5 - year main contract rose 0.07%, the 30 - year main contract rose 0.23%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.02% [9]. 5. Technical Analysis - **Stock Index**: The KDJ indicator of the Shanghai Composite Index shows a possible fluctuating trend [7]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The KDJ indicator of the T main contract shows a fluctuating trend [10]. 6. Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (yuan/piece) | Increase/Decrease (%) | Trading Volume (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 - 06 - 11 | CSI 300 Continuous | 3878.80 | 0.89 | 69002 | 115340 | | 2025 - 06 - 11 | SSE 50 Continuous | 2682.40 | 0.79 | 35407 | 44558 | | 2025 - 06 - 11 | CSI 500 Continuous | 5761.20 | 0.75 | 47295 | 89802 | | 2025 - 06 - 11 | CSI 1000 Continuous | 6144.00 | 0.63 | 112327 | 144803 | | 2025 - 06 - 11 | 10 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 109.05 | 0.06 | 47080 | 187358 | | 2025 - 06 - 11 | 5 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 106.19 | 0.07 | 38116 | 150845 | | 2025 - 06 - 11 | 30 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 120.44 | 0.23 | 55029 | 105150 | | 2025 - 06 - 11 | 2 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 102.46 | 0.02 | 23987 | 119103 | [12]

金融期货日报 股指 ◆ 核心观点： 美商务部长称谈判"进展顺利"，助推美股走高，标普 500 指数收盘逼近历 史高点。报道称美国接近达成协议部分豁免对墨钢铁关税。美国"稳定币法 案"本周三程序性投票，为快速立法铺路；韩国执政党提出数字资产基本法 案，拟允许本土公司发行稳定币。总体而言，当前股指期货市场呈现"小盘 强、大盘稳"的格局。美商务部长释放谈判利好消息，国内股指或震荡偏强 运行。 周二债市延续震荡节奏，但市场还是以偏多头的方向为主。消息面上，关于 中美经贸磋商的消息反复传播，市场在预期没有进展和取得进展之间反复横 跳。基本面、资金等各方面拉长看都继续利好债市，只是节奏可能未必顺畅。 短期内随着经贸磋商信息的进一步明确，市场可能还会出现若干次小幅的震 荡或者回踩。但核心变量总体朝着利多方向共振的情况下，市场回撤的空间 和时间都会相对有限。 ◆ 策略建议： 逢低配置。 研究咨询部 2025-06-11 公司资质 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业 务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1 号 ◆ 策略建议： 震荡偏强。 国债 ◆ 核心观点： 金融期货团队 研究员： 彭博 从业编号：F3080600 投资咨询编号：Z0 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Stock Index**: After Trump postponed 50% of the tariffs, the EU stated that the EU - US trade negotiations had "new impetus" and planned to "advance rapidly." Japan planned to use LNG projects and shipbuilding technology to seek tariff concessions from the US, aiming to reach an agreement by mid - June. ECB President Lagarde said the euro could become an alternative to the US dollar. Domestically, the market rotation was fast, the main driving force was weak, and trading volume was insufficient, so the stock index might fluctuate weakly [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Since early May, factors such as the profit - taking after the "dual cuts," the bond market's risk - aversion sentiment due to the 90 - day tariff suspension, concerns about "deposit migration" after the deposit rate cut, and worries about bond issuance supply had a bearish impact on the bond market. Current bond market investors were generally cautious, and the view of "bullish but not buying" limited the depth of market adjustment to some extent and provided the probability and odds for subsequent trading [3]. 3. Strategy Recommendations - **Stock Index**: Adopt a defensive and wait - and - see strategy [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Bullish in the short term [4]. 4. Market Review - **Stock Index**: The main contract futures of CSI 300 fell 0.61%, that of SSE 50 fell 0.46%, that of CSI 500 rose 0.33%, and that of CSI 1000 rose 0.69% [6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The 10 - year main contract rose 0.00%, the 5 - year main contract rose 0.01%, the 30 - year main contract rose 0.13%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.03% [9]. 5. Technical Analysis - **Stock Index**: The KDJ indicator of the Shanghai Composite Index suggested a weak trend [7]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The KDJ indicator of the T main contract showed a fluctuating and strong trend [10]. 6. Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (yuan/contract) | Change (%) | Trading Volume (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025 - 05 - 23 | CSI 300 Continuous | 3,831.20 | - 0.61 | 62,863 | 138,782 | | 2025 - 05 - 23 | SSE 50 Continuous | 2,684.40 | - 0.46 | 34,244 | 51,685 | | 2025 - 05 - 23 | CSI 500 Continuous | 5,594.60 | 0.33 | 56,454 | 110,791 | | 2025 - 05 - 23 | CSI 1000 Continuous | 5,925.00 | 0.49 | 133,893 | 181,503 | | 2025 - 05 - 23 | 10 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 108.855 | 0.00 | 52,310 | 166,526 | | 2025 - 05 - 23 | 5 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 106.060 | 0.01 | 48,389 | 125,742 | | 2025 - 05 - 23 | 30 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 119.760 | 0.13 | 58,787 | 91,927 | | 2025 - 05 - 23 | 2 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 102.430 | 0.03 | 31,127 | 102,629 | [12]

金融期货日报 股指 ◆ 核心观点： 特朗普减税法案陷僵局，共和党内讧，"地方税扣除"吵翻天。报道：日本 考虑接受美国调降关税，而非完全豁免。印美讨论"三阶段"贸易协议，预 计在 7 月初前达成临时协议。高盛预测欧美谈判：基准情形是"谈不拢"， 欧美"适度加税"。国内轮动较快，市场暂无主线驱动，股指或震荡运行。 ◆ 策略建议： 公司资质 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业 务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1 号 金融期货团队 研究员： 防守观望。 国债 ◆ 核心观点： 周二 A 股三大指数温和收涨，但市场结构性分化加剧，北证 50 与微盘股指 数表现强势，再创新高。但权益市场对债券的压制有限，国债期货午后在技 术支撑位附近显现较强买盘承接。同时，市场开始寻找性价比，配置盘对利 差保护充足的长久期中部地区地方债青睐有加，其与国债的利差处于历史高 位，近期持续吸引配置需求，有效增强了市场整体抗跌能力。中长期看，在 资金面宽松逻辑未破、基本面复苏信号尚待验证的背景下，收益率上行空间 相对有限。但短期市场缺乏明确催化因素，走势呈现胶着状态。现阶段更重 要的或许是保持耐心，等待突破契机。 ◆ 策略建议： 短期看好。 研究咨询 ...

金融期货日报 股指 ◆ 核心观点： 美国 4 月 ISM 服务业指数意外不降反升至 51.6，价格指数创两年多新高，就 业和新订单改善。美财长贝森特兜售押注美国：减税等特朗普政策组合拳会 吸引在美投资，到明年此时美国 GDP 增长可能接近 3%。潘功胜出席并主持 东盟与中日韩财长和央行行长会，会议通过新设以人民币等可自由使用货币 出资的快速融资工具相关安排。在内部环境较稳，外部不确定性较大，关税 博弈持续时间或较长的情况下，股指或震荡运行。 ◆ 策略建议： 震荡运行 国债 ◆ 核心观点： 外部冲击的博弈以及资金面仍是市场交易的主线。当前外部冲击对国内经济 的传导存在时滞效应，其潜在影响深度尚未完全显现。在中长期基本面逻辑 下，债市仍处于顺风环境。节后首日 OMO 到期量较为集中，持续关注资金 利率中枢能否有效下行，释放中短端的下行空间，届时也将为长端提供更大 的支撑。 ◆ 策略建议： 短期看好 研究咨询部 2025-05-06 1 / 9 公司资质 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业 务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1 号 金融期货团队 研究员： 彭博 从业编号：F3080600 投资咨询编号：Z0021839 ...

金融期货日报 股指 ◆ 核心观点： 美国商务部长谈及部分关税谈判进展，声称有的已谈妥待批准，贸易协议的 希望提振美股，美股涨幅扩大。美国 3 月 JOLTS 职位空缺创半年新低，远逊 预期；4 月谘商会消费者信心指数超预期下降至 86，创 2020 年 5 月以来新 低；3 月商品贸易逆差创历史记录，远超预期。中国国家主席在上海考察时 强调，加快建成具有全球影响力的科技创新高地。国内战略定力较强，节前 出重大利好政策的概率较低，可考虑防守过节。 ◆ 策略建议： 震荡运行 国债 ◆ 核心观点： 日内公布关税贸易战后首份 PMI 数据，此前 EPMI 环比回落幅度已超季节性， 关注 4 月官方 PMI 是否显著弱于预期。虽然利率下行趋势尚未逆转，但市场 抢跑行情演绎充分，收益率行至低位后做多赔率有所下降。后续收益率能否 突破前低，将取决于：1）基本面数据是否出现超预期变化；2）配置资金能 否持续入场形成增量驱动力量。当前利率交易需更注重安全边际。 ◆ 策略建议： 短期看好 研究咨询部 2025-04-30 公司资质 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业 务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1 号 金融期货团队 研究员： 彭 ...