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国债期货月报-20251010
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 11:55
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In September 2025, the treasury bond futures market showed a differentiated and volatile pattern. Short - term (2 - year) and medium - term (5 - year, 10 - year) contracts had slight increases, while long - term (30 - year) contracts were significantly under pressure. - The market's expectation of long - term monetary policy easing increased due to insufficient domestic demand, but the probability of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut decreased, resulting in insufficient upward momentum in the bond market. - The rise of A - share major indices in September increased risk appetite and suppressed the demand for treasury bonds. The traditional "stock - bond seesaw" effect weakened, and the bond market oscillated independently. - The Fed's interest rate cut in September alleviated the pressure on the RMB exchange rate, providing support for short - and medium - term contracts, but long - term contracts were significantly affected by interest rate sensitivity and institutional portfolio adjustments. - In October, it is expected that the market will maintain a low - level oscillation, with more significant fluctuations in long - term contracts. Attention should be paid to the synergistic effect of economic data and policies. [13] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Price**: The ten - year treasury bond futures 2512 (T2512) main contract had 8阴线 and 14阳线 in 22 trading days in September. The highest price of 108.320 yuan was reached on September 4, and the lowest price of 107.345 yuan was on September 25. The overall trend in September was an oscillation around the 5 - month moving average, and it closed with a positive K - line with upper and lower shadows. [2] - **Variety Price**: Among the 16 treasury bond futures contracts, different contracts had different price changes. For example, the two - year treasury bond (TS2509) contract rose by 0.004 yuan, while the two - year treasury bond (TS2512) contract fell by 0.046 yuan. The thirty - year treasury bond futures contracts generally showed a leading decline. [4][5] 3.2 Spot Market - In September 2025, the People's Bank of China carried out a series of 7 - day and 14 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.4%. For example, on September 1, it carried out 1827 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, and on September 26, it carried out 1658 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 6000 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchase operations. [6][7] 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Important Events**: In September 2025, there were several important events. On September 3, a grand ceremony commemorating the 80th anniversary of the victory of the Chinese People's War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti - Fascist War was held in Beijing. On September 12, the Ministry of Finance announced the second re - issuance of the 2025 ultra - long - term special treasury bonds with a scale of 82 billion yuan and a term of 30 years. On September 19, the Ministry of Finance issued the 2025 ultra - long - term special treasury bonds (sixth issue) with a 30 - year fixed - rate coupon - bearing bond and a coupon rate of 2.15%. On September 22, the State Council Information Office held a press conference on the development of the financial industry during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period. [8][9] - **Technical Analysis**: From the trend of the ten - year treasury bond (T2512) contract in September, it rose rapidly at the beginning of the month, reaching the monthly high of 108.320 yuan on September 4, then fell and rebounded after breaking the early - September price, but did not break through the September 4 high and then fell again to a new low. On the last trading day of September, it closed with a long positive line and a long upper shadow, indicating active trading and some profit - taking. After the National Day holiday, attention should be paid to investment opportunities on the first trading day. [10] 3.4 Market Outlook - In September, treasury bond futures showed a differentiated and volatile pattern. Short - and medium - term contracts had slight increases, while long - term contracts were under significant pressure. In October, it is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation, with more significant fluctuations in long - term contracts. Attention should be paid to the synergistic effect of economic data and policies. [13]
金融期货日报-20250821
Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 03:17
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views Index Futures - On Wednesday morning, the A-share market fluctuated and declined, but rebounded in the afternoon driven by the artificial intelligence sector. Ignoring the overnight decline of US stocks and Asia-Pacific stock indices, index futures soared in a short-squeeze situation, contrasting with the limit-down of lithium carbonate. The loose capital situation is the main reason. Under the central bank's loose policy, funds flow into the stock and futures markets in search of returns. With the improvement of residents' wealth management awareness and the decline of the attractiveness of real estate, some funds have turned to the financial sector, enriching the stock market capital pool. The general bullish sentiment in the market forms a positive feedback - investors' buying drives up prices, and rising prices attract more funds, amplifying the gains. This change in sentiment and confidence has become an important psychological basis for the short-squeeze market of index futures IM and IC [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - Taking the previous high as a reference, if the subsequent adjustment of yields cannot break through the previous high (for example, the previous high of 2.06% for the active 30-year treasury bond 2500002), then the most severe impact of the strong performance of the equity market on the bond market may have passed. At the same time, the bond market has also witnessed marginal positive factors such as the return of loose capital after the tax period and the relief of the fund redemption pressure after the previous release. This environment is conducive to the stabilization of bond market sentiment and also helps the bond market and the equity market to trade according to their own logics in the subsequent process [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Index Futures - **Market Review**: The main contract futures of CSI 300 rose 1.16%, the main contract futures of SSE 50 rose 1.08%, the main contract futures of CSI 500 rose 1.4%, and the main contract futures of CSI 1000 rose 1.23%. The 10-year main contract fell 0.19%, the 5-year main contract fell 0.1%, the 30-year main contract fell 0.5%, and the 2-year main contract fell 0.01% [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: The RSI indicator shows that the market is approaching a short-term high [4]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Buy on dips [1] Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Review**: The 10-year, 5-year, 30-year, and 2-year main contracts are involved [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The KDJ indicator shows that the T contract may rebound [5]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Stay on the sidelines [2] Futures Data - On August 20, 2025, the closing price of CSI 300 continuous contract was 4270.00 yuan/contract, with a daily increase of 1.16%, a trading volume of 90,137 lots, and an open interest of 159,194 lots. The closing price of SSE 50 continuous contract was 2851.20 yuan/contract, with a daily increase of 1.08%, a trading volume of 45,450 lots, and an open interest of 72,434 lots. The closing price of CSI 500 continuous contract was 6695.20 yuan/contract, with a daily increase of 1.40%, a trading volume of 77,339 lots, and an open interest of 127,360 lots. The closing price of CSI 1000 continuous contract was 7276.00 yuan/contract, with a daily increase of 1.23%, a trading volume of 196,109 lots, and an open interest of 217,300 lots. The closing price of 10-year treasury bond continuous contract was 107.84 yuan/contract, with a daily decrease of 0.19%, a trading volume of 78,281 lots, and an open interest of 69,826 lots. The closing price of 5-year treasury bond continuous contract was 105.42 yuan/contract, with a daily decrease of 0.10%, a trading volume of 52,899 lots, and an open interest of 63,108 lots. The closing price of 30-year treasury bond continuous contract was 115.88 yuan/contract, with a daily decrease of 0.50%, a trading volume of 96,513 lots, and an open interest of 48,883 lots. The closing price of 2-year treasury bond continuous contract was 102.32 yuan/contract, with a daily decrease of 0.01%, a trading volume of 47,983 lots, and an open interest of 42,716 lots [6].
金融期货日报-20250815
Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2025-08-15 02:02
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views Index Futures - US inflation "exploded", with the July PPI rising to 0.9% month - on - month, a three - year high, and 3.3% year - on - year. The strong US PPI data dampened the September Fed rate - cut expectation. The index's strength results from positive feedback of policy support, capital inflows, and event catalysts. After reaching a short - term high, it may oscillate, but the medium - term upward trend remains. Hold positions or lock in profits on dips, and consider buying on dips for those without positions [1]. - The RSI indicator shows the market is approaching a short - term high [5]. Treasury Futures - The bond market is currently constrained by risk assets. Although the equity market ended an eight - day winning streak, the adjustment was limited, and trading volume reached a high of 2.3 trillion. The current equity - dominant pattern may not reverse soon, suppressing the bond market in the short term. Attention should be paid to the economic data to be released on Friday to see if it can support the bond market [3]. - The MACD indicator shows that the T main contract may weaken [7]. Group 3: Market Review Index Futures - The CSI 300 index futures main contract fell 0.02%, the SSE 50 index futures main contract rose 0.48%, the CSI 500 index futures main contract fell 1.00%, and the CSI 1000 index futures main contract fell 0.95% [5]. Treasury Futures - The 10 - year main contract fell 0.12%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.08%, the 30 - year main contract fell 0.36%, and the 2 - year main contract fell 0.02% [6]. Group 4: Strategy Suggestions Index Futures - Buy on dips [1]. Treasury Futures - Expect a volatile operation [3]. Group 5: Data Tables - On August 14, 2025, the closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests of various index and treasury futures contracts are presented in a table, including CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, CSI 1000, 10 - year, 5 - year, 30 - year, and 2 - year futures [8]. Group 6: Charts - There are multiple charts showing the trends, price - to - earnings ratios, trading volumes, open interests, trading volume - to - open interest ratios, basis, basis rates, annualized basis rates, and inter - period spreads of index and treasury futures [9][10][11][12][15][17][18][19][20][21][22][24][25][26][27][29][30][31][32][34][36][37][39][40][43][44][46][47][49][51][52][54][55][56][57]
金融期货日报-20250814
Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2025-08-14 02:54
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Index Futures - The U.S. Treasury Secretary believes that the U.S. interest rate should be 150 - 175 basis points lower than the current level. China's new social financing in July was 1.16 trillion yuan, RMB loans decreased by 5 billion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap narrowed. The central bank's media suggests not over - hyping single - month credit fluctuations. The expectation of a September interest rate cut is strengthened, and the Secretary's statement reinforces the market's anticipation of a larger cut. The index's strength is due to positive policies, continuous capital inflows, and frequent event catalysts. After reaching a short - term high, it may oscillate to wash out floating chips, but the medium - term upward trend remains unchanged [2]. Treasury Bonds - Whether the bond market will continue to rebound or fall needs further observation. The bond market has lacked profit - making opportunities recently, leading to the outflow of some allocation funds. A short - term upward movement may even stimulate more outflows. The bond market may fluctuate in both directions for some time, providing opportunities for flexible funds [3]. Strategy Recommendations Index Futures - Buy on dips [2]. Treasury Bonds - Expect a volatile market [4]. Market Review Index Futures - The main contract of the CSI 300 index futures rose 1.02%, the SSE 50 index futures rose 0.35%, the CSI 500 index futures rose 1.78%, and the CSI 1000 index futures rose 1.77% [6]. Treasury Bonds - The 10 - year main contract rose 0.04%, the 5 - year main contract rose 0.05%, the 30 - year main contract rose 0.14%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.03% [7]. Technical Analysis Index Futures - The RSI indicator shows that the market is approaching a short - term high [6]. Treasury Bonds - The MACD indicator suggests that the T main contract may weaken [8]. Data Table - On August 13, 2025, the closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests of various index and treasury bond futures contracts are provided, including CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, CSI 1000, 10 - year, 5 - year, 30 - year, and 2 - year futures [9].
金融期货日报-20250801
Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2025-08-01 04:04
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Stock Index**: Trump signed a new tariff executive order effective August 1, maintaining the minimum reciprocal tariff rate at 10%. The US core PCE price index in June reached a 4 - month high of 2.8% year - on - year. The Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged and raised inflation forecasts. The State Council passed relevant AI - related opinions and implemented loan interest subsidy policies. With high margin trading in China, a decline in fund holding ratios, and the Politburo meeting not exceeding expectations, the stock index may fluctuate in late August during the intensive semi - annual report disclosure period [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The external environment has not deteriorated significantly. With policy focus on consumption, market mechanisms, and capital market stability in the second half of the year, the rising market risk appetite may restrict the bond market. Some investors are reducing positions, and there are still differences in the market outlook [3]. 3. Strategy Suggestions - **Stock Index**: Expected to move in a volatile manner [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to move in a volatile manner [3]. 4. Market Review - **Stock Index**: On July 31, 2025, the main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures fell by 1.77%, 1.44%, 1.38%, and 0.88% respectively [5][7]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On July 31, 2025, the 10 - year, 5 - year, 30 - year, and 2 - year main contracts of treasury bond futures rose by 0.17%, 0.08%, 0.57%, and 0.01% respectively [6][7]. 5. Technical Analysis - **Stock Index**: The RSI indicator shows that the market has a callback risk [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The RSI indicator shows that the T main contract may rebound [6].
金融期货日报-20250731
Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 01:39
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views Stock Index - The Federal Reserve has kept rates unchanged for five consecutive meetings. The initial estimate of the annualized quarterly growth rate of the US Q2 real GDP is 3%, better than expected. The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to decide to convene the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee and analyze and study the current economic situation and economic work. China's preliminary budget for child - rearing subsidies is 90 billion yuan, and applications will be accepted in late August. Domestic margin trading has reached a high level, while the proportion of fund holdings has declined, showing a divergent trend. Coupled with the fact that the Political Bureau meeting did not exceed expectations, there may be small fluctuations during the intensive disclosure period of mid - year reports in late August, and the stock index may fluctuate. [1] Treasury Bonds - At present, the external environment has not deteriorated significantly. Coupled with the fact that the focus of policy efforts in the second half of the year is on boosting consumption, optimizing the market competition mechanism, and ensuring the stable operation of the capital market, etc., against the background of a significant increase in market risk appetite, it may still pose certain constraints on the bond market. Whether it can fully recover to the starting point of this round of adjustment remains to be seen. [2] 3. Strategy Recommendations Stock Index - Fluctuate [1] Treasury Bonds - Fluctuate weakly [2] 4. Market Review Stock Index - The main contract futures of the CSI 300 index rose 0.04%, the main contract futures of the SSE 50 index rose 0.28%, the main contract futures of the CSI 500 index fell 0.42%, and the main contract futures of the CSI 1000 index fell 0.43%. [4] Treasury Bonds - The 10 - year main contract rose 0.15%, the 5 - year main contract rose 0.08%, the 30 - year main contract rose 0.40%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.03%. [5] 5. Technical Analysis Stock Index - The RSI indicator shows that the broader market has a risk of correction. [4] Treasury Bonds - The RSI indicator shows that the T main contract may rebound. [5] 6. Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (Yuan/Contract) | Change (%) | Trading Volume (Lots) | Open Interest (Lots) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025 - 07 - 30 | CSI 300 Continuous | 4,136.40 | 0.04 | 81,931 | 162,604 | | 2025 - 07 - 30 | SSE 50 Continuous | 2,820.00 | 0.28 | 46,511 | 64,619 | | 2025 - 07 - 30 | CSI 500 Continuous | 6,215.40 | - 0.42 | 58,280 | 108,507 | | 2025 - 07 - 30 | CSI 1000 Continuous | 6,604.20 | - 0.43 | 144,840 | 185,002 | | 2025 - 07 - 30 | 10 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 108.30 | 0.15 | 86,268 | 183,354 | | 2025 - 07 - 30 | 5 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 105.63 | 0.08 | 72,345 | 141,731 | | 2025 - 07 - 30 | 30 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 118.36 | 0.40 | 159,171 | 115,352 | | 2025 - 07 - 30 | 2 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 102.34 | 0.03 | 38,836 | 98,577 | [6]
金融期货日报-20250730
Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 02:12
Group 1: Core Views - Core view of stock index: Sino-US economic and trade talks are held in Stockholm. The two sides will continue to promote the 90-day extension of the 24% reciprocal tariffs of the US and China's countermeasures. The Political Bureau's economic work conference will be held today. Margin trading reaches a high level, while the fund holding ratio decreases and the trends diverge. Coupled with the intensive disclosure period of the semi-annual reports in late August, there may be small fluctuations. The stock index may fluctuate [1] - Core view of treasury bond: From the recent trend, the bond market is still in the paradigm of "trading bonds based on commodities" and "trading bonds based on stocks". The short-term focus of the market still lies in the subsequent trends of the commodity and equity markets. Recently, attention should be paid to whether important meetings bring incremental demand-side policies. If the demand side can be repaired under the support of policies to digest the pressure of this round of cost increase, it may not be appropriate to be overly optimistic about the bond market [3] Group 2: Strategy Recommendations - Strategy recommendation for stock index: Fluctuate [2] - Strategy recommendation for treasury bond: Fluctuate weakly [4] Group 3: Market Review - Stock index market review: The futures of the main contracts of CSI 300 Index rose 0.54%, the futures of the main contracts of SSE 50 Index rose 0.39%, the futures of the main contracts of CSI 500 Index rose 0.66%, and the futures of the main contracts of CSI 1000 Index rose 0.86% [5] - Treasury bond market review: The 10-year main contract fell 0.25%, the 5-year main contract fell 0.16%, the 30-year main contract fell 0.81%, and the 2-year main contract fell 0.06% [6] Group 4: Technical Analysis - Stock index technical analysis: The RSI indicator shows that the market has a callback risk [5] - Treasury bond technical analysis: The RSI indicator shows that the T main contract may rebound [6] Group 5: Futures Data - Futures data on July 29, 2025: The closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests of various stock index and treasury bond futures are provided in the table [7]
金融期货日报-20250725
Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2025-07-25 01:59
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report Core Views - **Equity Index**: The "Renovation Gate" of the Fed has escalated, with Trump pressuring for a rate cut. The ECB has stopped rate cuts after eight consecutive reductions, and the expectation of a September rate cut has dropped sharply. China is strongly "anti - involution" with the revision of the Price Law. After the coal mine production verification dampened market sentiment, the "Hainan blockade" and "anti - involution" have boosted market risk appetite again, and the slow - bull trend of the equity index is becoming clear with its central level rising [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On Thursday, the bond market adjusted significantly. Currently, the focus of short - term bond market trading is not on the capital and fundamental aspects. The influence of investor behavior and the performance of major asset classes on the bond market has been significantly magnified. Compared with the commodity and equity markets, the previous adjustment space of the bond market is still insufficient, and the odds are limited, making incremental funds cautious and existing funds uneasy. In this situation, the bond market is still difficult to make great progress. It is recommended to preserve strength and wait for better opportunities to allocate [2]. 3. Directory Summaries Market Review - **Equity Index**: The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 equity index futures rose by 0.76%, 0.50%, 1.72%, and 1.84% respectively [1][5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The 10 - year, 5 - year, 30 - year, and 2 - year main contracts of treasury bond futures fell by 0.27%, 0.20%, 0.87%, and 0.08% respectively [2][6]. Technical Analysis - **Equity Index**: The RSI indicator shows that the market has a callback risk [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The RSI indicator shows that the T main contract may rebound [6]. Strategy Suggestions - **Equity Index**: The equity index is expected to fluctuate upwards [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Pay attention to taking profits and wait for better entry opportunities [2][3]. Futures Data - **Equity Index Futures**: On July 24, 2025, the closing prices of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 main contracts were 4,141.20 yuan, 2,816.60 yuan, 6,226.00 yuan, and 6,618.60 yuan respectively, with trading volumes of 65,298 lots, 34,309 lots, 49,292 lots, and 124,051 lots, and open interests of 163,125 lots, 63,790 lots, 109,680 lots, and 181,457 lots respectively [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On July 24, 2025, the closing prices of 10 - year, 5 - year, 30 - year, and 2 - year main contracts were 108.24 yuan, 105.60 yuan, 118.31 yuan, and 102.30 yuan respectively, with trading volumes of 88,420 lots, 88,209 lots, 149,278 lots, and 54,515 lots, and open interests of 196,150 lots, 160,008 lots, 122,909 lots, and 106,097 lots respectively [7].
金融期货日报-20250612
Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2025-06-12 01:56
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core Views - **Stock Index**: The current stock index futures market shows a pattern of "strong small - cap and stable large - cap". The positive news from the negotiation has ended, and the technology sector related to IM has positive catalysts. Domestic stock indices may fluctuate. The US 5 - month CPI increased by 2.4% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month, falling short of expectations for the fourth consecutive month. China and the US have basically reached an agreement framework. The US Treasury Secretary said the inflation data was "very good" and there were other related statements [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On Wednesday, the bond market continued to be favorable, with yields of bonds of various maturities declining slightly. Overnight funds returned below 1.4%, dispelling market concerns. Although the equity market strengthened on Wednesday, the bond market was not much affected. Currently, the two markets are trading their own main lines. The bond market is benefiting from the resonance of fundamentals, funds, and the approaching end of the supply peak. Be patient with the subsequent decline in interest rates [3]. 3. Strategy Recommendations - **Stock Index**: The stock index is expected to fluctuate [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Allocate on dips [4]. 4. Market Review - **Stock Index**: The main contract futures of CSI 300 rose 0.89%, SSE 50 rose 0.79%, CSI 500 rose 0.75%, and CSI 1000 rose 0.63% [6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The 10 - year main contract rose 0.06%, the 5 - year main contract rose 0.07%, the 30 - year main contract rose 0.23%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.02% [9]. 5. Technical Analysis - **Stock Index**: The KDJ indicator of the Shanghai Composite Index shows a possible fluctuating trend [7]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The KDJ indicator of the T main contract shows a fluctuating trend [10]. 6. Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (yuan/piece) | Increase/Decrease (%) | Trading Volume (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 - 06 - 11 | CSI 300 Continuous | 3878.80 | 0.89 | 69002 | 115340 | | 2025 - 06 - 11 | SSE 50 Continuous | 2682.40 | 0.79 | 35407 | 44558 | | 2025 - 06 - 11 | CSI 500 Continuous | 5761.20 | 0.75 | 47295 | 89802 | | 2025 - 06 - 11 | CSI 1000 Continuous | 6144.00 | 0.63 | 112327 | 144803 | | 2025 - 06 - 11 | 10 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 109.05 | 0.06 | 47080 | 187358 | | 2025 - 06 - 11 | 5 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 106.19 | 0.07 | 38116 | 150845 | | 2025 - 06 - 11 | 30 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 120.44 | 0.23 | 55029 | 105150 | | 2025 - 06 - 11 | 2 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 102.46 | 0.02 | 23987 | 119103 | [12]
金融期货日报-20250611
Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2025-06-11 01:32
Group 1: Core Views - The current stock index futures market shows a pattern of "strong small-cap and stable large-cap". With positive news from the US Commerce Secretary, domestic stock indices may fluctuate strongly [1] - On Tuesday, the bond market continued to fluctuate, with a bullish bias. Fundamentals and other factors are favorable to the bond market in the long run, but the market may experience short-term fluctuations. However, the scope and time of market pullbacks are limited [3] Group 2: Strategy Recommendations - For stock indices, the strategy is to expect a fluctuating and upward trend [2] - For government bonds, the strategy is to allocate on dips [4] Group 3: Market Review - The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures fell by 0.69%, 0.53%, 0.88%, and 0.89% respectively [6] - The main contracts of 10-year, 5-year, 30-year, and 2-year government bond futures rose by 0.01%, 0.01%, 0.07%, and 0.00% respectively [9] Group 4: Technical Analysis - The KDJ indicator of the Shanghai Composite Index suggests a possible fluctuating trend [7] - The KDJ indicator of the T main contract of government bonds shows a fluctuating trend [10] Group 5: Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (yuan/piece) | Change (%) | Trading Volume (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-06-10 | CSI 300 Continuous | 3841.00 | -0.69 | 64495 | 112083 | | 2025-06-10 | SSE 50 Continuous | 2660.00 | -0.53 | 38481 | 46099 | | 2025-06-10 | CSI 500 Continuous | 5718.20 | -0.88 | 52147 | 93852 | | 2025-06-10 | CSI 1000 Continuous | 6113.80 | -0.89 | 132573 | 158926 | | 2025-06-10 | 10-year Government Bond Continuous | 109.00 | 0.01 | 47942 | 184969 | | 2025-06-10 | 5-year Government Bond Continuous | 106.14 | 0.01 | 47953 | 147190 | | 2025-06-10 | 30-year Government Bond Continuous | 120.16 | 0.07 | 62753 | 103965 | | 2025-06-10 | 2-year Government Bond Continuous | 102.44 | 0.00 | 25053 | 118657 | [12] Group 6: Figures - Figures related to stock index futures include trends, PE ratios, trading volume, open interest, trading volume to open interest ratio, basis, basis rate, annualized basis rate, and inter - period spreads [13][17][22][24][26][29][31][33][34] - Figures related to government bond futures include trends, trading volume, open interest, trading volume to open interest ratio, trading amount, basis, and spot - futures price difference [37][42][47][49]