金融期货日报 股指 ◆ 核心观点： 周三早盘 A 股震荡回落，午后人工智能板块带动反弹，无视隔夜美股及亚太 股指下跌，股指期货大涨呈逼空态势，与碳酸锂跌停形成反差。资金面宽松 是主因：央行宽松政策下，资金为求回报流入股期市场；居民财富管理意识 提升、房地产吸引力下降，部分资金转向金融领域，充实股市资金池。市场普 遍看涨形成正向反馈—投资者买入推升价格，价格上涨又吸引更多资金入场， 放大涨幅，这种情绪与信心转变成为股指期货 IM、IC 逼空行情的重要心理基 础。 ◆ 策略建议： 逢低做多 国债 保持观望 研究咨询部 2025-08-21 公司资质 长江期货股份有限公司期货交易咨 询业务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1 号 金融期货团队 研究员： 彭博 从业编号：F3080600 投资咨询编号：Z0021839 研究员： 张志恒 ◆ 核心观点： 以前期高点作为参考，如果后续收益率调整高度不能突破前高（以 30 年国债 活跃券 2500002 前高 2.06%为例），那么权益市场的强势表现对债市冲击最 猛烈的时刻很可能已经过去；同时债市还迎来了税期过后资金面重回宽松以 及基金赎回压力经历前期释放而有所缓解的边际利好 ...

金融期货日报 股指 ◆ 核心观点： 美国通胀"爆表"，7 月 PPI 环比飙升至 0.9%，创三年新高，同比升至 3.3%。 美国 PPI 数据显示美国批发通胀意外强劲，打压周二 CPI 数据助燃的 9 月美 联储降息预期。指数走强，是政策暖风频吹、资金活水不断、事件催化密集等 因素正反馈不断强化的结果。短线达新高后，或借高点震荡洗盘，但中期趋 势向上未改，有仓位的可继续持有或回调锁仓，无仓位可考虑逢回调做多。 ◆ 策略建议： 逢低做多。 国债 ◆ 核心观点： 近期债券市场仍面临风险资产的掣肘格局。尽管权益市场终结了八连阳走势， 但从日内表现来看，调整深度较为有限，仅回踩至 5 日均线附近便重拾涨势， 且单日成交量再度攀升至 2.3 万亿高位。尽管部分资金选择阶段性止盈，但 增量资金持续涌入，呈现出"逢调买入"特征，当前权益占优的格局可能仍未 到逆转时候，短期仍对债市形成明显压制，制约了债市的修复进程。关注周 五即将公布的经济数据表现，是否能给债市提供阶段性支撑。 ◆ 策略建议： 公司资质 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业 务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1 号 金融期货团队 研究员： 彭博 从业编号：F308 ...

金融期货日报 股指 ◆ 核心观点： 美国财长贝森特：美国利率水平应比当前低 150 到 175 个基点。中国 7 月新 增社融 1.16 万亿元，人民币贷款减少 500 亿元，M2-M1 剪刀差缩小。央行 主管媒体：不宜过度炒作单月信贷增量波动。9 月降息预期继续巩固，贝森特 强化市场降息幅度。指数走强，是政策暖风频吹、资金活水不断、事件催化密 集等因素正反馈不断强化的结果。短线达新高后，或借高点震荡洗盘，但中 期趋势向上未改，有仓位的可继续持有或回调锁仓，无仓位可考虑逢回调做 多。 ◆ 策略建议： 逢低做多。 国债 ◆ 核心观点： 后续市场延续反弹还是延续下跌通道仍然需要观察，而且从近期现券市场情 况看，债市持续缺乏赚钱效应，导致一部分配置资金的持续流出，短线行情 走强反而刺激更多资金的流出。近期债市可能还会维持一段时间的双向波动， 对于头寸灵活的资金来看有波动总比没有波动更有机会。 ◆ 策略建议： 震荡运行。 研究咨询部 2025-08-14 公司资质 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业 务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1 号 金融期货团队 研究员： 彭博 从业编号：F3080600 投资咨询编号：Z0021 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Stock Index**: Trump signed a new tariff executive order effective August 1, maintaining the minimum reciprocal tariff rate at 10%. The US core PCE price index in June reached a 4 - month high of 2.8% year - on - year. The Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged and raised inflation forecasts. The State Council passed relevant AI - related opinions and implemented loan interest subsidy policies. With high margin trading in China, a decline in fund holding ratios, and the Politburo meeting not exceeding expectations, the stock index may fluctuate in late August during the intensive semi - annual report disclosure period [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The external environment has not deteriorated significantly. With policy focus on consumption, market mechanisms, and capital market stability in the second half of the year, the rising market risk appetite may restrict the bond market. Some investors are reducing positions, and there are still differences in the market outlook [3]. 3. Strategy Suggestions - **Stock Index**: Expected to move in a volatile manner [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to move in a volatile manner [3]. 4. Market Review - **Stock Index**: On July 31, 2025, the main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures fell by 1.77%, 1.44%, 1.38%, and 0.88% respectively [5][7]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On July 31, 2025, the 10 - year, 5 - year, 30 - year, and 2 - year main contracts of treasury bond futures rose by 0.17%, 0.08%, 0.57%, and 0.01% respectively [6][7]. 5. Technical Analysis - **Stock Index**: The RSI indicator shows that the market has a callback risk [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The RSI indicator shows that the T main contract may rebound [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views Stock Index - The Federal Reserve has kept rates unchanged for five consecutive meetings. The initial estimate of the annualized quarterly growth rate of the US Q2 real GDP is 3%, better than expected. The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to decide to convene the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee and analyze and study the current economic situation and economic work. China's preliminary budget for child - rearing subsidies is 90 billion yuan, and applications will be accepted in late August. Domestic margin trading has reached a high level, while the proportion of fund holdings has declined, showing a divergent trend. Coupled with the fact that the Political Bureau meeting did not exceed expectations, there may be small fluctuations during the intensive disclosure period of mid - year reports in late August, and the stock index may fluctuate. [1] Treasury Bonds - At present, the external environment has not deteriorated significantly. Coupled with the fact that the focus of policy efforts in the second half of the year is on boosting consumption, optimizing the market competition mechanism, and ensuring the stable operation of the capital market, etc., against the background of a significant increase in market risk appetite, it may still pose certain constraints on the bond market. Whether it can fully recover to the starting point of this round of adjustment remains to be seen. [2] 3. Strategy Recommendations Stock Index - Fluctuate [1] Treasury Bonds - Fluctuate weakly [2] 4. Market Review Stock Index - The main contract futures of the CSI 300 index rose 0.04%, the main contract futures of the SSE 50 index rose 0.28%, the main contract futures of the CSI 500 index fell 0.42%, and the main contract futures of the CSI 1000 index fell 0.43%. [4] Treasury Bonds - The 10 - year main contract rose 0.15%, the 5 - year main contract rose 0.08%, the 30 - year main contract rose 0.40%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.03%. [5] 5. Technical Analysis Stock Index - The RSI indicator shows that the broader market has a risk of correction. [4] Treasury Bonds - The RSI indicator shows that the T main contract may rebound. [5] 6. Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (Yuan/Contract) | Change (%) | Trading Volume (Lots) | Open Interest (Lots) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025 - 07 - 30 | CSI 300 Continuous | 4,136.40 | 0.04 | 81,931 | 162,604 | | 2025 - 07 - 30 | SSE 50 Continuous | 2,820.00 | 0.28 | 46,511 | 64,619 | | 2025 - 07 - 30 | CSI 500 Continuous | 6,215.40 | - 0.42 | 58,280 | 108,507 | | 2025 - 07 - 30 | CSI 1000 Continuous | 6,604.20 | - 0.43 | 144,840 | 185,002 | | 2025 - 07 - 30 | 10 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 108.30 | 0.15 | 86,268 | 183,354 | | 2025 - 07 - 30 | 5 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 105.63 | 0.08 | 72,345 | 141,731 | | 2025 - 07 - 30 | 30 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 118.36 | 0.40 | 159,171 | 115,352 | | 2025 - 07 - 30 | 2 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 102.34 | 0.03 | 38,836 | 98,577 | [6]

Group 1: Core Views - Core view of stock index: Sino-US economic and trade talks are held in Stockholm. The two sides will continue to promote the 90-day extension of the 24% reciprocal tariffs of the US and China's countermeasures. The Political Bureau's economic work conference will be held today. Margin trading reaches a high level, while the fund holding ratio decreases and the trends diverge. Coupled with the intensive disclosure period of the semi-annual reports in late August, there may be small fluctuations. The stock index may fluctuate [1] - Core view of treasury bond: From the recent trend, the bond market is still in the paradigm of "trading bonds based on commodities" and "trading bonds based on stocks". The short-term focus of the market still lies in the subsequent trends of the commodity and equity markets. Recently, attention should be paid to whether important meetings bring incremental demand-side policies. If the demand side can be repaired under the support of policies to digest the pressure of this round of cost increase, it may not be appropriate to be overly optimistic about the bond market [3] Group 2: Strategy Recommendations - Strategy recommendation for stock index: Fluctuate [2] - Strategy recommendation for treasury bond: Fluctuate weakly [4] Group 3: Market Review - Stock index market review: The futures of the main contracts of CSI 300 Index rose 0.54%, the futures of the main contracts of SSE 50 Index rose 0.39%, the futures of the main contracts of CSI 500 Index rose 0.66%, and the futures of the main contracts of CSI 1000 Index rose 0.86% [5] - Treasury bond market review: The 10-year main contract fell 0.25%, the 5-year main contract fell 0.16%, the 30-year main contract fell 0.81%, and the 2-year main contract fell 0.06% [6] Group 4: Technical Analysis - Stock index technical analysis: The RSI indicator shows that the market has a callback risk [5] - Treasury bond technical analysis: The RSI indicator shows that the T main contract may rebound [6] Group 5: Futures Data - Futures data on July 29, 2025: The closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests of various stock index and treasury bond futures are provided in the table [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report Core Views - **Equity Index**: The "Renovation Gate" of the Fed has escalated, with Trump pressuring for a rate cut. The ECB has stopped rate cuts after eight consecutive reductions, and the expectation of a September rate cut has dropped sharply. China is strongly "anti - involution" with the revision of the Price Law. After the coal mine production verification dampened market sentiment, the "Hainan blockade" and "anti - involution" have boosted market risk appetite again, and the slow - bull trend of the equity index is becoming clear with its central level rising [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On Thursday, the bond market adjusted significantly. Currently, the focus of short - term bond market trading is not on the capital and fundamental aspects. The influence of investor behavior and the performance of major asset classes on the bond market has been significantly magnified. Compared with the commodity and equity markets, the previous adjustment space of the bond market is still insufficient, and the odds are limited, making incremental funds cautious and existing funds uneasy. In this situation, the bond market is still difficult to make great progress. It is recommended to preserve strength and wait for better opportunities to allocate [2]. 3. Directory Summaries Market Review - **Equity Index**: The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 equity index futures rose by 0.76%, 0.50%, 1.72%, and 1.84% respectively [1][5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The 10 - year, 5 - year, 30 - year, and 2 - year main contracts of treasury bond futures fell by 0.27%, 0.20%, 0.87%, and 0.08% respectively [2][6]. Technical Analysis - **Equity Index**: The RSI indicator shows that the market has a callback risk [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The RSI indicator shows that the T main contract may rebound [6]. Strategy Suggestions - **Equity Index**: The equity index is expected to fluctuate upwards [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Pay attention to taking profits and wait for better entry opportunities [2][3]. Futures Data - **Equity Index Futures**: On July 24, 2025, the closing prices of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 main contracts were 4,141.20 yuan, 2,816.60 yuan, 6,226.00 yuan, and 6,618.60 yuan respectively, with trading volumes of 65,298 lots, 34,309 lots, 49,292 lots, and 124,051 lots, and open interests of 163,125 lots, 63,790 lots, 109,680 lots, and 181,457 lots respectively [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On July 24, 2025, the closing prices of 10 - year, 5 - year, 30 - year, and 2 - year main contracts were 108.24 yuan, 105.60 yuan, 118.31 yuan, and 102.30 yuan respectively, with trading volumes of 88,420 lots, 88,209 lots, 149,278 lots, and 54,515 lots, and open interests of 196,150 lots, 160,008 lots, 122,909 lots, and 106,097 lots respectively [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core Views - **Stock Index**: The current stock index futures market shows a pattern of "strong small - cap and stable large - cap". The positive news from the negotiation has ended, and the technology sector related to IM has positive catalysts. Domestic stock indices may fluctuate. The US 5 - month CPI increased by 2.4% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month, falling short of expectations for the fourth consecutive month. China and the US have basically reached an agreement framework. The US Treasury Secretary said the inflation data was "very good" and there were other related statements [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On Wednesday, the bond market continued to be favorable, with yields of bonds of various maturities declining slightly. Overnight funds returned below 1.4%, dispelling market concerns. Although the equity market strengthened on Wednesday, the bond market was not much affected. Currently, the two markets are trading their own main lines. The bond market is benefiting from the resonance of fundamentals, funds, and the approaching end of the supply peak. Be patient with the subsequent decline in interest rates [3]. 3. Strategy Recommendations - **Stock Index**: The stock index is expected to fluctuate [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Allocate on dips [4]. 4. Market Review - **Stock Index**: The main contract futures of CSI 300 rose 0.89%, SSE 50 rose 0.79%, CSI 500 rose 0.75%, and CSI 1000 rose 0.63% [6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The 10 - year main contract rose 0.06%, the 5 - year main contract rose 0.07%, the 30 - year main contract rose 0.23%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.02% [9]. 5. Technical Analysis - **Stock Index**: The KDJ indicator of the Shanghai Composite Index shows a possible fluctuating trend [7]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The KDJ indicator of the T main contract shows a fluctuating trend [10]. 6. Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (yuan/piece) | Increase/Decrease (%) | Trading Volume (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 - 06 - 11 | CSI 300 Continuous | 3878.80 | 0.89 | 69002 | 115340 | | 2025 - 06 - 11 | SSE 50 Continuous | 2682.40 | 0.79 | 35407 | 44558 | | 2025 - 06 - 11 | CSI 500 Continuous | 5761.20 | 0.75 | 47295 | 89802 | | 2025 - 06 - 11 | CSI 1000 Continuous | 6144.00 | 0.63 | 112327 | 144803 | | 2025 - 06 - 11 | 10 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 109.05 | 0.06 | 47080 | 187358 | | 2025 - 06 - 11 | 5 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 106.19 | 0.07 | 38116 | 150845 | | 2025 - 06 - 11 | 30 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 120.44 | 0.23 | 55029 | 105150 | | 2025 - 06 - 11 | 2 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 102.46 | 0.02 | 23987 | 119103 | [12]

金融期货日报 股指 ◆ 核心观点： 美商务部长称谈判"进展顺利"，助推美股走高，标普 500 指数收盘逼近历 史高点。报道称美国接近达成协议部分豁免对墨钢铁关税。美国"稳定币法 案"本周三程序性投票，为快速立法铺路；韩国执政党提出数字资产基本法 案，拟允许本土公司发行稳定币。总体而言，当前股指期货市场呈现"小盘 强、大盘稳"的格局。美商务部长释放谈判利好消息，国内股指或震荡偏强 运行。 周二债市延续震荡节奏，但市场还是以偏多头的方向为主。消息面上，关于 中美经贸磋商的消息反复传播，市场在预期没有进展和取得进展之间反复横 跳。基本面、资金等各方面拉长看都继续利好债市，只是节奏可能未必顺畅。 短期内随着经贸磋商信息的进一步明确，市场可能还会出现若干次小幅的震 荡或者回踩。但核心变量总体朝着利多方向共振的情况下，市场回撤的空间 和时间都会相对有限。 ◆ 策略建议： 逢低配置。 研究咨询部 2025-06-11 公司资质 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业 务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1 号 ◆ 策略建议： 震荡偏强。 国债 ◆ 核心观点： 金融期货团队 研究员： 彭博 从业编号：F3080600 投资咨询编号：Z0 ...

金融期货日报 股指 ◆ 核心观点： 特朗普政府扳回一城：本准备打到最高院，后上诉法院批准请求，叫停阻止 关税的裁决，暂时恢复关税政策。白宫顾问：有信心推翻法院裁决，关税有 其他选择工具，但目前没考虑用；高盛和大摩均警告，法院裁决影响可能有 限，特朗普政府有其他工具可抵消影响。特朗普约见鲍威尔、2019 年 11 月 来首次会晤，特朗普要求降息，鲍威尔坚持政策独立性。关税扰动继续，总 体来看，在成交量未有效放大之前，指数震荡、题材板块轮动的结构性行情 大概率将延续。 ◆ 策略建议： 防守观望。 国债 ◆ 核心观点： 周四收益率曲线全线上行，全天情绪偏弱，尽管 10 年国债 250004 回升到 1.72%左右，已经接近了部分投资者前期认为的收益率区间上限，而 2 年、5 年国债收益率更是"回补"了关税冲击形成的缺口；且这近两个月的过程中 伴随着降准降息和货币市场利率下行的实质性利好，但过程中并没有看到强 有力的配置力量下场买债，这种现实与直觉的背离值得关注。 彭博 从业编号：F3080600 投资咨询编号：Z0021839 研究员： 张志恒 ◆ 策略建议： 短期看好。 研究咨询部 2025-05-30 公司资质 ...