Group 1: Metals and Precious Metals - Silver: Powell's speech dispels market expectations of an interest rate hike, and maintaining or cutting rates is the main logic. There is uncertainty within the Fed. Global stock markets are down, risk appetite is weak, and silver's upward momentum is weaker than gold's, passively following gold's fluctuations, with a mid - term range - bound trend [1] - Gold: The situation in the Strait of Hormuz may ease in terms of passage but fees may rise, and inflation expectations may temporarily ease. Fed officials signal no immediate rate hikes, weakening short - term upward momentum, but risk aversion is rising. Gold still has rebound demand and a mid - term wide - range oscillation pattern [6] - Aluminum: Two major aluminum plants in the Middle East were attacked, causing aluminum prices to surge. If production cuts in the Middle East materialize, the global aluminum supply gap will widen. The domestic market has not entered the de - stocking cycle, but downstream demand is picking up. Short - term prices may remain strong, but there is a risk of technical correction [8] - Alumina: The domestic alumina supply is in excess, but cost support exists due to Guinea's export restrictions and rising shipping costs. Demand from electrolytic aluminum is limited, and inventory is high. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate weakly [9] - Zinc: Sulfuric acid price increases support zinc prices from the cost side. Domestic refinery profits are improving, but supply may tighten in the second quarter. Demand from the galvanizing industry is rising, and social inventory is decreasing. Short - term zinc prices are expected to oscillate strongly [10] Group 2: Energy and Chemicals - Methanol: Domestic methanol production is at a high level, downstream demand is recovering, port inventory is decreasing, and imports are down. The market is expected to oscillate slightly stronger in the short term [2] - Crude Oil: Iran's parliament has passed a bill to charge vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The low traffic in the Strait and its expected situation are the key factors for oil prices. Short - term operation should be cautious, and the mid - term upward driving force will be stronger as the war continues [12] - PTA: PTA production and capacity utilization are increasing, but downstream polyester sales are poor due to high raw material prices. There is an expected inventory build - up in March. Cost is affected by PX supply - demand and geopolitical factors. Short - term caution is needed, and mid - term strategy is to go long at low levels [13] Group 3: Agricultural Products - Pork: The national pig price is stable, with slight adjustments in some areas. Demand growth is limited, and the price is bottom - oscillating. The spot market has a stronger price - support sentiment, and the futures market has a bottom - fishing sentiment but has not reversed. Focus on the slaughter volume and the reduction of sows [7] - Palm Oil: Indonesia may advance the B50 biodiesel plan, and international crude oil prices are high. Domestic import profits are inverted, and inventory is slightly decreasing. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate strongly at a high level [7] - Soybean Meal: Some oil mills' soybean meal inventory is decreasing, and downstream procurement is cautious. Other mills' operation is stable, and terminal procurement is mainly for rigid demand. Brazilian quarantine process relaxation may suppress short - term prices, which are expected to oscillate weakly [8] - Natural Rubber: Raw material prices are high, providing strong cost support. Thai and Vietnamese rubber plantations are expected to start tapping in early April. Chinese social inventory is starting to decrease. Demand from domestic tire enterprises is stable after the Spring Festival, but the market has a weaker expectation for future orders. Long - term prices show a bottom - rising trend, and short - term prices are in a wide - range oscillation [15] Group 4: Others - Two - year Treasury Bonds: Most short - term Shibor varieties are down, indicating a looser capital market, which is favorable for the short - term bond market. The two - year and five - year bond markets are rebounding, and there is a short - term rebound demand. Attention should be paid to whether the mid - term oscillation pattern can be broken [4] - Rebar: Affected by the Middle East conflict, the steel market faces "cost support + export obstacles". Domestic steel consumption is slowly recovering, and high inventory restricts price increases. Short - term price increases may be limited [4] - Coke: Short - term supply and demand of coke are both increasing, and the iron - making production recovery is faster. The cost of coke is rising, and the expectation of price increase is strong. The coke futures price will follow the coking coal price. If the geopolitical conflict eases, there will be a callback pressure [5] - Silicone Iron: The silicone iron industry has a serious over - capacity problem. The recovery of industry profits may accelerate the resumption of production, and the supply - demand relationship will become looser. There is a callback risk in the medium - long term [5] - Soda Ash: The float glass industry is stable, with decreasing inventory. The domestic soda ash market fluctuates slightly, with individual price cuts. Downstream demand is general, and inventory is high. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate slightly weakly [10] - PVC: PVC supply is increasing, inventory is stable, downstream operation rate is rising but still lower than last year. Downstream resistance is strong after price increases, and export demand is poor. Cost is supported by high - priced crude oil. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate slightly weakly [11]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term trends of various commodities are predicted based on supply and demand, inventory, and external factors such as geopolitical situations [1][2][4] - The market sentiment and price trends of different commodities are affected by factors like production capacity utilization, inventory changes, and downstream demand [5][6][8] Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Coal and Coke - For coking coal, last week's supply increased slightly, downstream coke enterprises' procurement was for rigid demand, and the market expected short - term coking coal and coke to fluctuate strongly [1] Methanol - Domestic methanol has a high - level start, downstream demand has a phased increase, and the port inventory is decreasing. It is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term [2] Iron Ore - Although the overall iron ore supply is still relatively loose, the shipping and arrival rhythm is affected. The demand for hot metal has room for recovery. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [4] Rebar - The domestic steel demand recovers slowly, the cost support is unstable, and the short - term steel price may have a weak and narrow adjustment [4] Livestock - The national pig price continues to decline, the supply is loose in the short term, and the price is mainly in the bottom - range shock [5] Edible Oils - Malaysian palm oil exports are strong in March, and the price has strong support below. It is expected to fluctuate weakly at a high level in the short term [6] Feed - The domestic oil mill's bean meal inventory is rising, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate weakly at a high level [6] Chemicals - The domestic soda ash market is stable, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [7][8] Plastics - LLDPE has more planned shutdown and maintenance devices, and the supply pressure is expected to be relieved. It is expected to fluctuate slightly weakly in the short term [8] Bonds - The capital market has a slight upward trend, which is negative for the bond market. The bond market has strong volatility [9] Precious Metals - Gold's short - term upward momentum is insufficient, and it may still fluctuate at a high level in the medium term [9] - Platinum's further downward momentum may be limited, and it may still fluctuate at a high level in the medium term [10] Non - Ferrous Metals - Guinea's policy of reducing bauxite exports may push up the cost of domestic alumina enterprises. The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [10][11] - The supply cost of cast aluminum alloy is well - supported, and the demand is recovering. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [11] Energy - The US commercial crude oil inventory is at a high level, and the war situation affects the oil price. The short - term operation should be cautious [12] Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia's plan to levy export taxes on nickel may push up the export cost. The nickel price is expected to fluctuate strongly [13] Natural Rubber - The natural rubber social inventory shows signs of destocking, and the short - term fundamentals are weak [14][15] PTA - The downstream polyester sales are not good, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in March. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term [15]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The domestic methanol market is expected to fluctuate slightly weaker in the short term due to high domestic methanol production, increasing downstream demand, and continued inventory reduction at ports [1]. - The gold market has limited further downward momentum, and it may trade the stagflation logic after trading inflation. Gold is expected to remain in a high - level range in the medium term [2]. - Steel prices are expected to fluctuate with the cost side in the short term due to the strengthening of the energy substitution effect and the spread of risk - aversion sentiment [4]. - The manganese - silicon market has a risk of valuation correction in the medium and long term due to loose supply - demand, high inventory, and difficult cost transmission [4]. - The coke market is expected to follow the cost side of coking coal in the short term due to the increase in both supply and demand and the rise in cost prices [5]. - The pig price is expected to be weak in the short term due to slow slaughter progress and weak terminal demand. The near - month contract is accelerating downward, and the far - month contract is fluctuating [5]. - The palm oil market is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. - The soybean meal market is expected to fluctuate weakly at a high level in the short term. Attention should be paid to whether it effectively breaks through the support level [7]. - The PVC market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term due to reduced supply, inventory decline, increased downstream resistance to high prices, and weakening cost - side oil prices [7]. - The soda ash market is expected to fluctuate in the short term due to stable downstream demand, high inventory, and high supply [8]. - The aluminum market is expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term due to the impact of CBAM, high domestic inventory, and weak downstream procurement [9]. - The nickel market is expected to fluctuate in the short term due to support from the raw material side and insufficient demand [10]. - The zinc market is expected to fluctuate in the short term due to the game between improved demand, cost support, and macro - pressure [11]. - The crude oil price may rise again if the war situation does not improve in the next few days, as the supply interruption is expected to be large [12]. - The PX market is in a situation of weak supply and demand in the short term, but the cost - side support is still strong. Attention should be paid to the downstream negative feedback [13]. - The synthetic rubber market is expected to have a downward - trending inventory. If the geopolitical situation does not improve, there may be opportunities to go long at low levels [14]. - The bond market is expected to fluctuate strongly and follow the stock market in the opposite direction. It is waiting for the guidance of the Politburo meeting [15]. - The palladium market is expected to fluctuate downward in the short term due to the increasing economic recession expectation [15]. Summary by Commodity Methanol - The market price in Jiangsu Taicang is 3295 yuan/ton, up 245 yuan/ton. The port inventory is 126.17 tons, down 5.11 tons week - on - week. The production enterprise inventory is 48.54 tons, down 3.77 tons week - on - week. The order backlog is 27.93 tons, up 1.40 tons week - on - week. The domestic production capacity utilization rate is 92.87%, up 2.4% week - on - week, and the downstream capacity utilization rate is 72.92%, up 3.64% week - on - week [1]. Gold - The US - Iran negotiation is in a stalemate. The gold market has limited further downward momentum, and it may trade the stagflation logic [2]. Steel - On March 23, domestic steel prices rose slightly. The price of Tangshan Qian'an billet rose 10 to 2990 yuan/ton. Two steel mills raised the ex - factory price of construction steel by 30 yuan/ton. The average price of 20mm third - grade anti - seismic rebar in 31 major cities is 3346 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [4]. Manganese - silicon - The inventory of 63 independent silicon - manganese enterprises is 384,800 tons, up 9,000 tons month - on - month. The inventory in the Ningxia region is 301,000 tons, up 7,000 tons month - on - month [4]. Coke - The average profit per ton of coke in 30 independent coking plants is 38 yuan/ton. The average profit of Shanxi quasi - first - grade coke is 57 yuan/ton, Shandong is 97 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia second - grade coke is - 11 yuan/ton, and Hebei quasi - first - grade coke is 87 yuan/ton [5]. Pig - On March 23, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 122.20, up 0.11 points from last Friday. The "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 123.80, up 0.15 points from last Friday. The average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market is 16.01 yuan/kg, up 0.2% from last Friday, and eggs are 7.73 yuan/kg, up 1.8% from last Friday [5]. Palm oil - As of March 20, 2026, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions is 80.82 tons, down 3.38 tons week - on - week, a decrease of 4.01%. It is 41.99 tons more than the 38.83 tons in the same period last year, an increase of 108.14% [6]. Soybean meal - As of March 23, the domestic soybean meal spot price dropped. The price in Tianjin is 3330 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; Shandong is 3260 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; Jiangsu is 3270 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; and Guangdong is 3370 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [6]. PVC - The price of East China SG - 5 type PVC is 6020 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan/ton from the previous day. The production capacity utilization rate is 80.12%, down 1.23% week - on - week. The social inventory is 137.13 tons, down 2.55%. The average profit of calcium - carbide - based PVC production enterprises is 193 yuan/ton, and that of ethylene - based PVC production enterprises is - 433 yuan/ton. The starting rate of domestic PVC pipe sample enterprises is 39.2%, up 1.2 percentage points from the previous period [7]. Soda ash - The mainstream price of national heavy - duty soda ash is 1256 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton from the previous day. The weekly output is 80.92 tons, up 0.27%. The total inventory of soda ash manufacturers is 193.17 tons, down 0.8%. The starting rate of float glass is 71.05%, up 0.24 percentage points week - on - week. The average price of national float glass is 1170 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton from the previous day. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises is 75.849 million heavy boxes, down 4.76% [8]. Aluminum - The EU's primary aluminum imports in January decreased by 83% month - on - month to 102,000 tons, the lowest since 2002. The implementation of CBAM reshapes the European aluminum import pattern, but it has limited short - term impact on aluminum prices [9]. Nickel - The MHP nickel metal output in the first quarter is 39,000 tons, down 4.30% from January. The production plan in March is only 31,700 tons, down 18.61% month - on - month. The price coefficient of nickel intermediate products has risen to 91% - 92.5% [10]. Zinc - The zinc concentrate inventory of sample primary zinc smelters is 644,000 physical tons, up 12,000 tons month - on - month. The increment of domestic ore is clear, but the import ore processing fee remains at a low level of $20/ton, and there are still interferences in the import ore supply [11]. Crude oil - Iran launched an attack on multiple locations in Israel and some US military bases. Trump postponed the threat of attacking Iran's energy infrastructure. If the situation does not improve, the supply interruption in late March may reach 11.5 million barrels per day and remain at this level in April [12]. PX - Last week, the load of Asian and domestic PX continued to decline slightly. The domestic PX load decreased to 84.6% (- 0.4%), and the Asian PX load decreased to 74.8% (- 0.9%). The supply of PX is expected to further decline, but the cost - side support is still strong [13]. Synthetic rubber - The domestic butadiene output is 111,100 tons, down 0.47% from the previous period. The capacity utilization rate is 69.71%, down 2.99 percentage points from the previous period. The price of butadiene in the Asian market has risen [14]. Two - year Treasury Bond - Most money market interest rates have risen. The bond market is expected to fluctuate strongly and follow the stock market in the opposite direction. It is waiting for the guidance of the Politburo meeting [15]. Palladium - The probability of the US economy falling into a recession in the next 12 months has risen to 30%. Palladium has the greatest downward pressure among precious metals and is expected to fluctuate downward in the short term [15].

Key Points of the Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market situation of various commodities is affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical conflicts, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes. Different commodities show different trends, including short - term and medium - term price movements, and investors need to make corresponding decisions according to specific circumstances [2][4][5] 3. Summary by Commodity **Energy and Chemicals** - **Crude Oil**: To suppress oil prices, various parties are taking remedial measures, which can delay market panic and make up for the two - month production reduction loss of Gulf countries. The key lies in the navigation status of the Strait of Hormuz. Short - term trading should be cautious, and a low - level long - biased trading idea should be maintained in the medium term before significant navigation in the Strait of Hormuz [9] - **PTA**: The terminal orders of TA are not ideal, and the downstream resistance is strong. The social inventory of PTA is expected to continue to accumulate. However, due to the continuous fermentation of geopolitical conflicts, the cost side is the main variable in the PTA market. Short - term trading should be cautious, and it should follow crude oil in the medium term [2] - **Methanol**: Domestic methanol production is at a high level, downstream demand is recovering, and the port inventory is decreasing. The inland methanol market is slightly weak, and the port methanol market is also weak. It is expected to oscillate slightly weakly in the short term [13][14] - **PVC**: In the short term, the supply of PVC is sufficient, the downstream demand is improving, and the industry inventory may decline. The market resists high prices, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [13] - **Palm Oil**: Geopolitical risks exist, and the price of palm oil is driven up by crude oil. Indonesia may increase consumption and limit exports. The domestic spot inventory pressure is large, and the shipment is not good. It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, with strong support below [7] **Metals** - **Aluminum**: The shutdown of Bahrain Aluminium due to the Strait of Hormuz issue reflects the impact of geopolitical conflicts on the aluminum supply chain. If the strait is blocked for a long time, overseas supply contraction is expected to be further strengthened, and short - term aluminum volatility may increase [11] - **Lead**: The supply of primary lead shows regional differentiation, but the overall operating rate is high. The downstream inventory digestion is not as expected, and the lead price is expected to be under pressure in the short term [12] - **Nickel**: The signing of a long - term contract reflects the continuous investment in Indonesian nickel resources, but it has no substantial impact on short - term supply. Supply is expected to contract in the short term, but high inventory suppresses the price, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [12] - **Steel and Iron - related** - **Coke**: If molten iron resumes production as expected, the coke fundamentals are healthy, and its price follows the cost - side coking coal. If geopolitical conflicts continue, it may follow energy prices; if they ease, it is expected to oscillate [2] - **Rebar**: In March, the supply and demand of the steel market are improving, but the demand recovery is slow, and the high - inventory pressure remains. Under the game of weak demand and high cost, the steel price may oscillate in the short term [4] - **Manganese Silicon**: The supply and demand of the manganese silicon market are loose, the upstream inventory is high, and there is resistance in cost transmission. There is obvious selling - hedging pressure on the futures price, and there is a risk of high - level correction [4] **Agricultural Products** - **Soybean Meal**: The lower support of the soybean meal contract is strong due to the strong US soybeans and rising shipping costs. The domestic oil mill inventory is rising, and downstream enterprises are resistant to high prices. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, and investors should be cautious about chasing high prices [8] - **Natural Rubber**: The supply side has strong raw material prices, and the inventory is seasonally accumulating. The demand side has sufficient orders but shows structural differentiation. It should be traded with an oscillating idea [10][11] - **Pig**: The national pig price is oscillating at a low level, and there is still pressure on the breeding side to sell. However, there are signs of price stabilization in the short term. The feed cost supports the price, and the long - term downward space of the pig futures price is limited [6][7] **Others** - **Two - year Treasury Bond**: The continuous tender of treasury cash increases liquidity, which is beneficial to short - term bonds. However, the good economic fundamentals are negative for the bond market. Short - term bonds may oscillate at a high level, and the bond market as a whole is in a triangular oscillating convergence, waiting for policy guidance [5] - **Gold**: The war in the Middle East continues, inflation expectations are rising, and the need for interest rate cuts is suppressed. There is still a safe - haven sentiment, and the short - term downward space of gold is limited. It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the medium term [5] - **Silver**: Sino - US trade negotiations improve risk preference. The rising oil price due to the Middle East war increases inflation expectations in the US and weakens the upward momentum of silver. It may further look for support downward and oscillate at a high level in the medium term [6] - **Soda Ash**: The float glass industry is relatively stable, and the inventory is decreasing. The domestic soda ash market oscillates steadily, with high production and inventory, and general demand. The price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [14]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The war between the US and Iran is still stalemated, and the probability of the war ending within this week is low. The international oil price fluctuates greatly, and the direction of the war remains highly uncertain. This situation affects various industries such as PTA, gold, and crude oil [1][9]. - The international situation is complex and changeable, which has an impact on the prices of various commodities. Some commodities are expected to show high - level oscillations, while others may have different trends depending on supply - demand relationships and cost factors [1][3] Summary by Commodity PTA - PTA social inventory is 374.57 million tons, up 13.48 million tons from the previous statistical period. The PTA capacity utilization rate is adjusted to 80.33%, and the polyester comprehensive capacity utilization rate is around 83.83%. As polyester load seasonally recovers, PTA will gradually destock. The tight supply of PX due to the situation in the Middle East is the main factor for the polyester market [1]. Gold - The war situation is still unclear. High oil prices boost inflation expectations and weaken the prospect of interest rate cuts, which puts pressure on gold prices. However, due to the existence of risk - aversion sentiment, the short - term downside space for gold is limited, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level in the medium term [1]. Steel Products - **螺纹钢**: On March 10, domestic steel market prices showed mixed trends. Affected by the sharp fluctuations in international energy prices, black futures have fallen from high levels. Short - term steel prices may oscillate [3]. - **铁矿石**: The inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in China is 171.1786 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 25.90 million tons. The supply - demand contradiction of steel is not obvious in the short term, and the supply - demand of iron ore is relatively loose. The market is greatly affected by macro - sentiment, and the futures price is expected to oscillate strongly [3]. Coal and Coking Products - **焦煤**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants in China is 17 yuan/ton. The supply is gradually recovering, and the demand is weak. The short - term futures price will be mainly oscillating [4]. Livestock Products - **生猪**: The national pig price is mainly declining. The short - term price will continue to oscillate at the bottom, and the long - term downward space for futures prices is limited. Focus on the slaughter volume of the breeding end and the reduction of fertile sows [4]. Agricultural Products - **豆粕**: The domestic spot price of soybean meal has been adjusted. The lower support of the futures contract is strong, but the short - term upward space is suppressed. The short - term price is expected to oscillate strongly at a high level [5]. - **棕榈油**: Malaysia's palm oil inventory in February decreased by 3.95% month - on - month. The report is neutral to bearish, but the decline is limited. The domestic spot inventory pressure is large, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate at a high level [5][6]. Non - ferrous Metals - **铝**: The aluminum price once soared to a nearly four - year high but then fell back. The Middle East situation is still uncertain, and the aluminum price is expected to oscillate at a high level with increased volatility [6]. - **镍**: Four HPAL plants in Indonesia have suspended production, which will affect the short - term supply of battery - grade nickel. The supply tightening expectation supports the nickel price, but the upward space is limited by demand [7]. - **锌**: The import benchmark processing fee for zinc concentrate in 2026 has slightly rebounded, but the supply of zinc concentrate is still tight. The supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate [8]. Energy Products - **原油**: The US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 1.7 million barrels in the week ending March 6, 2026. The oil transportation in the Strait of Hormuz is interrupted, and the market fluctuates violently. Attention should be paid to risk prevention [9][10]. Other Products - **天然橡胶**: Overseas rubber - producing areas are in the production - reduction period. China's rubber inventory is still accumulating. The demand for downstream tire products has recovered, and the 05 contract is expected to oscillate more with 16,500 as the support [10]. - **甲醇**: The domestic methanol production is at a high level, the port inventory is basically stable, and the spot market is weak. The short - term price is expected to oscillate weakly [11]. - **二年期国债**: The short - term capital is marginally tightened, and the long - term capital is still loose. During the Two Sessions, there may be fewer incremental policies, and the two - year treasury bond will mainly oscillate [11]. - **玻璃**: The start - up rate of the float glass industry is relatively stable, the profit is poor, the enterprise inventory is at a high level in the past three years, and the supply is stable while the demand is weak. The short - term price is expected to run weakly [12]. - **塑料**: The supply pressure has been alleviated, the production enterprise inventory has decreased, the demand is weak, and the cost - side support has weakened. The short - term price is expected to oscillate weakly [13]. - **铂金**: The conflict in the Middle East affects inflation expectations and economic prospects, which has a negative impact on the demand for platinum. However, due to the high - level oscillation of gold, the downward space for platinum is limited, and it may follow the fluctuation rhythm of silver in the medium term [14].

Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information regarding the report industry investment ratings in the provided content. Core Views - The natural rubber market is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend. Overseas production areas are entering the off - season, downstream tire enterprises' production has recovered to a high level, but factors such as geopolitical issues and post - holiday shipping affect the market [1]. - The aluminum price is supported by geopolitical risk premiums and the expected increase in the cost center, providing short - term upward momentum [2]. - The steel price is expected to fluctuate in the short term due to factors such as slow demand recovery and rising international oil prices and shipping costs [4]. - The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate weakly due to high supply and inventory pressure, and macro uncertainties [5]. - The manganese silicon price is expected to continue to fluctuate around the cost valuation due to a supply - strong and demand - weak situation [6]. - The oil and gas prices are still boosted by the war, but there is also supply pressure from OPEC+ increasing production in April. Low - position long orders can be tracked and held [7]. - The PTA market has limited supply - demand drive but is pushed up by the cost due to the strong crude oil price [8][9]. - The pig price is still falling, with a supply - exceeding - demand situation. The downward space of medium - term hog futures prices is limited, and far - month contracts are accelerating to build a bottom [9]. - The palm oil price is short - term bullish. It is recommended to go long on dips, paying attention to geopolitical risks [10]. - The soybean meal price is expected to fluctuate within a range, supported by the high price of US soybeans but suppressed by high domestic inventory [11]. - The methanol market is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with high domestic production and port inventory, and downstream resuming work [12]. - The plastic market is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with supply pressure slightly relieved, rising production enterprise inventory, and strong cost support [13][14]. - The float glass market is expected to be weak in the short term, with stable supply, weak demand, and high enterprise inventory [15]. - The zinc market needs to be vigilant about volatility under the influence of market sentiment and funds, with supply gradually recovering and demand not yet fully released [16]. - The lead price has an upward pressure due to high inventory, waiting for the inventory inflection point signal [17]. - The two - year treasury bond market should be considered with a fluctuating mindset, affected by factors such as tight funds and rising inflation expectations [17]. - The gold market is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend, with continued geopolitical conflicts but some factors suppressing the upward momentum [18]. - The platinum market is expected to oscillate at a high level in the medium term, with insufficient upward momentum [18]. Summaries by Commodity Natural Rubber - Thailand's raw material glue price is 68.8 baht/kg (0.5/0.73%), and cup - glue price is 57.2 baht/kg (0.2/0.35%). In 2025, Indonesia's natural rubber production is 212 tons, a 0.7% decrease from 2024 [1]. - Overseas production areas are entering the off - season, tire enterprises' production has recovered to a high level, but post - holiday shipping and geopolitical issues affect the market [1]. Aluminum - The sea freight from Guinea to China is expected to rise, and the spot price of alumina is expected to recover to $61 - 63 per dry ton [2]. - Geopolitical risks and rising raw material costs support the aluminum price [2]. Steel - On March 2, domestic steel prices showed mixed trends. The price of billets in Tangshan decreased by 10 yuan to 2910 yuan/ton, and the average price of 20mm three - grade seismic rebar was 3303 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [4]. - New construction projects are decreasing, and demand recovery is slow, while international oil prices and shipping costs are rising [4]. Iron Ore - The inventory of imported iron ore in 47 ports is 17891.30 tons, a net increase of 159.18 tons; the daily dredging volume is 313.53 tons, a decrease of 53.64 tons [5]. - Supply is recovering, and high inventory pressure is difficult to relieve in the short term, with macro uncertainties [5]. Manganese Silicon - The inventory of 63 independent silicon - manganese enterprises is 398300 tons, a net increase of 3500 tons [6]. - The market has a supply - strong and demand - weak situation, and the price is expected to fluctuate around the cost valuation [6]. Crude Oil - Iran's military actions and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz affect the oil and gas market, and OPEC+ will increase production in April [7]. - Low - position long orders can be tracked and held [7]. PTA - The domestic PTA load is adjusted to 76.6% (+1.8%), and the polyester comprehensive load is raised to 79.5% (+1.9%) [8]. - The supply - demand drive is limited, and the cost pushes up the price [8][9]. Pig - On March 2, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 17.20 yuan/kg, a 1.9% decrease from last Saturday [9]. - The pig price is falling, with a supply - exceeding - demand situation, and the downward space of medium - term futures prices is limited [9]. Palm Oil - In February 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 19.35% month - on - month, and exports decreased significantly [10]. - In March, production is expected to continue to decrease, and exports are expected to improve. Indonesia's actions may affect production, and it is recommended to go long on dips [10]. Soybean Meal - As of February 27, 2026, the national port soybean inventory is 630 tons, a net increase of 70.60 tons from last week [11]. - The price is supported by the high price of US soybeans but suppressed by high domestic inventory and is expected to fluctuate within a range [11]. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2328 yuan/ton, an increase of 121 yuan/ton. The port inventory is 144.67 tons, a net increase of 1.45 tons [12]. - The domestic production is at a high level, the port inventory is high, and the market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [12]. Plastic - The mainstream price of LLDPE in North China is 6801 yuan/ton, a net increase of 197 yuan/ton from the previous day [13]. - Supply pressure is slightly relieved, production enterprise inventory is rising, and the cost is strongly supported [13][14]. Float Glass - The average operating rate of the float glass industry is 70.61%, unchanged from the previous week. The average weekly profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel is - 142.26 yuan/ton, a net increase of 24.29 yuan/ton [15]. - The supply is stable, the demand is weak, and the enterprise inventory is at a high level, expected to be weak in the short term [15]. Zinc - After the Spring Festival, some zinc mines in South China and Southwest China are resuming production, with an expected incremental supply of about 3000 metal tons in March [16]. - Supply is gradually recovering, but processing fees are still low, and demand has not fully released [16]. Lead - From February 22 - 26, the average operating rate of primary lead smelters in three provinces is 51.47%, a 1.14 - percentage - point increase from the Spring Festival week but an 8.24 - percentage - point decrease from before the festival [17]. - Supply recovery is slow, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and high inventory suppresses the price [17]. Two - Year Treasury Bond - Money market interest rates mostly rise, and the bond market is affected by factors such as tight funds and rising inflation expectations [17]. - The short - term treasury bond market should be considered with a fluctuating mindset [17]. Gold - Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East continue, but some factors suppress the upward momentum of gold [18]. - The gold market is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend [18]. Platinum - The situation in Iran makes the Fed more reluctant to cut interest rates, and the platinum market has insufficient upward momentum [18]. - The platinum market is expected to oscillate at a high level in the medium term [18].