公司报告 | 半年报点评 泸州老窖（000568） 证券研究报告 25H1 业绩平稳，期待低度新品打造新增长极 事件：公司发布 2025 年半年度报告。 2025H1 营收 164.54 亿元，同比-2.67%；归母净利润 76.63 亿元，同比-4.54%； 2025Q2 营收 71.02 亿元，同比-7.97%；归母净利润 30.70 亿元，同比-11.10%； 营收+Δ合同负债 75.71 亿元，同比+0.63%。 25H1 特曲持续增长稳住营收基本盘，下半年 28°国窖或推出贡献增量。 25H1 酒类 收入 163.97 亿 元 （同 比-2.62%）， 销 量/ 吨 价 分别 同比 +2.09%/-4.62%，具体看： ① 产品端，中高档酒 / 其他酒收入 150.48/13.50 亿元（同比 -1.09%/-16.96% ）。 量 价 角 度 ， 中 高 档 酒 类 销 量 / 吨价分别同比 +13.33%/-12.72%，其他酒类销量/吨价分别-6.89%/-10.82%。25H2 公司或推 出 28°国窖新品，低度新品有望成为新增长极，此外，公司拟推出"二曲" 新品巩固大众价位布局。 ② 渠道 ...

Summary of the Conference Call for Luzhou Laojiao Industry Overview - The high-end liquor market is under pressure due to the impact of the alcohol ban, with slow recovery in business banquet scenarios affecting high-end products like Guojiao 1573 significantly. However, mid-to-low-end products such as Luzhou Laojiao Tequ and Erqu are performing relatively stable in rural markets [2][4][5]. Key Points and Arguments - **Market Performance**: Since June, the liquor industry has faced challenges due to macroeconomic conditions and weak consumer demand, particularly in high-end business banquet consumption, leading to a sales decline of approximately 30-40% in June and July. A slight improvement was noted from late July to early August, continuing into September [4][5]. - **Product Strategy**: Luzhou Laojiao is optimistic about the low-alcohol liquor market, adjusting its product structure based on market demand without strictly differentiating between high and low alcohol content. The low-alcohol Guojiao is performing well in regions like North China and Jiangsu-Zhejiang [2][7][12]. - **Youth Market Engagement**: The company is actively targeting younger consumers by opening "liquor cafes," developing low-alcohol and craft beer products, and sponsoring sports events to create a youthful brand image [9][19]. - **Pricing Strategy**: Luzhou Laojiao is committed to maintaining stable pricing for Guojiao 1573 to avoid price wars and protect brand image, preparing for future price increases [17][18]. - **Channel Expansion**: The company is increasing investments in emerging channels such as instant retail, online sales, and membership supermarkets, collaborating with partners like Pang Donglai for flexible customization [19][20]. Additional Important Insights - **Sales Distribution**: The revenue share between high and low alcohol products for Guojiao 1573 is nearly equal, with a long-term trend towards lower alcohol content expected, although the exact changes in proportion remain to be seen [11]. - **Market Potential**: Luzhou Laojiao sees significant growth potential in low-alcohol products, particularly in regions where market share is currently underperforming, such as East China and Jiangsu-Zhejiang [13][16]. - **Competition Management**: The company is adopting a flexible channel strategy, including direct sales and enhanced management of distributors to ensure market stability amid competition [3][23]. - **Impact of Alcohol Ban**: The company acknowledges that while the most severe effects of the alcohol ban have passed, the overall consumption demand has not yet improved significantly, posing ongoing challenges for the industry [24]. - **Sales Forecast**: The company is cautious about predicting sales performance for the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, noting that consumer behavior may be affected by travel plans [5][25]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and strategic directions of Luzhou Laojiao as discussed in the conference call, highlighting the challenges and opportunities within the current market landscape.

Core Viewpoint - Luzhou Laojiao has reported stable performance in the first half of the year, with a slowdown in growth, while maintaining a strong product portfolio and exploring new market channels [2][3][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, Luzhou Laojiao achieved revenue of 16.454 billion yuan and a net profit of 7.663 billion yuan [3]. - The compound annual growth rate of net profit over the past five years reached 22.38% [3]. - The overall Chinese liquor industry is undergoing an adjustment cycle, with a decline in volume but an increase in quality, transitioning from "stock competition" to "value creation" [3]. Group 2: Product and Market Strategy - Over 90% of Luzhou Laojiao's revenue comes from mid-to-high-end liquor, with a revenue of 15.048 billion yuan from these products, an increase of 1.46 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The company is implementing a "dual brand, three product lines, and major product" strategy, which has helped maintain a solid market base [4][5]. - New emerging channels have seen a revenue increase of approximately 30%, reaching 932 million yuan, with a gross margin of 83.52% [5][6]. Group 3: Research and Development - Luzhou Laojiao has significantly increased its R&D investment, with an 11.65% year-on-year growth, while sales expenses have decreased by 6.86% [6]. - The company has invested a total of 1.035 billion yuan in R&D over the past five years, with a compound annual growth rate of 26.40% [6]. - The company is focusing on low-alcohol and younger consumer trends, with plans to develop and promote new drinking methods, including a 28-degree version of Guojiao 1573 [7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Luzhou Laojiao aims to innovate and adapt to changing consumer demands for low-alcohol, healthy, and diversified products [7]. - The company is expected to further enhance its presence in the low-alcohol segment, leveraging its existing advantages [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Luzhou Laojiao is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is focusing on strengthening its foundation and preparing for future challenges, with a development theme of "gaining momentum and refining growth" [9] - The company has implemented various strategic actions, including the "Hundred Cities Plan" and "East China Strategy 2.0," to enhance market penetration and product innovation [9] - The company anticipates a short-term pressure on high-end liquor demand but has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 12.2 billion, 12.7 billion, and 14.1 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 9% for 2025 [9] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 30,233 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 20.34% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is expected to be 13,246 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 27.79% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is estimated at 9.00 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15.24 [1] - The company reported a revenue of 164.5 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a decrease of 2.7% year-on-year, and a net profit of 76.6 billion yuan, down 4.5% year-on-year [9] Market Data Summary - The closing price of the stock is 137.19 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 201.9 billion yuan [6] - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is 4.34, and the company has a net asset value per share of 31.62 yuan [6][7] - The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 33.49% [7] Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to expand its core terminal count from 500,000 to 4 million over the next five years [9] - Product innovation is being driven by trends towards lower alcohol content and healthier options, with new products in development [9] - The company is focusing on digital marketing and channel transformation to optimize cost allocation and inventory management [9]

Market Performance - The company's stock price has underperformed the liquor sector by 21% from H2 2023 to H1 2025, with a forecasted PE decline of 45% due to a combination of internal and external cycles affecting revenue and performance growth [1] - The company is actively reducing channel burdens and focusing on digital transformation centered around consumers, while also making forward-looking product arrangements [1] - Current PE is close to early 2013 levels, presenting operational and investment opportunities [1] Competitive Barriers - The company is management-driven with organizational and channel advantages, having achieved breakthroughs through deep reforms during historical adjustments [1] - A large and professional sales team supports market expansion, while refined channel management is implemented based on local conditions [1] - The product lineup includes a full-price range with significant growth contributions from major products, rooted in the "Nongxiang" heritage [1] Digital Transformation - The liquor industry has accelerated channel transformation, enhancing C-end bargaining power, leading to rapid growth in online channels and immediate retail [2] - The company leverages technology to empower the supply chain, addressing production challenges and improving management efficiency [2] - Core terminal growth is projected to increase by 40% year-on-year, with membership assets expected to grow by 60% [2] Growth Logic - The company maintains price and market share advantages in the high-end segment, with potential for volume and price growth as the economy recovers [2] - The low-end products are expected to benefit from the trend towards lower alcohol content, while mid-range products meet daily consumer needs [2] - Short-term focus remains on maximizing cost-effectiveness in key markets, with long-term plans for national expansion [2] Investment Recommendations - Despite short-term pressures, the company's long-term growth momentum remains intact, with a revised revenue forecast for 2025-2027 of 30.59/30.84/33.33 billion yuan, reflecting a slight decline in 2025 followed by modest growth [3] - Projected net profit for the same period is 13.03/13.20/14.54 billion yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12.9/12.7 for 2025/2026 [3] - The company is expected to maintain a dividend yield of 5.4% in 2025, supporting its valuation, with a target price range of 152.4-166.4 yuan, indicating a 40% upside potential from the current price [3]