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1.8盘前速览 | “AI+制造”顶层设计出炉,国产算力与资源交相呼应
Jin Rong Jie· 2026-01-08 01:45
【人工智能】 政策支持:八部门印发《"人工智能+制造"专项行动实施意见》,提出到2027年AI核心关键技术安全可 靠供给等目标。 产业动态:智谱AI与国产GPU公司天数智芯将于明日(1月8日)在港股上市;金融时报称Meta收购 Manus正面临监管审查;网传DKL在谷歌TPU OCS采购中获超70%份额;卖方指出单机柜电源(PSU) 价值量预计提升至少30%。 其他传闻:市场传闻春节期间将有大模型重大动作;另有传闻称科技公司被要求暂停英伟达H200芯片 订单。 相关ETF: 半导体设备ETF(场内:561980,场外:020464)、云计算ETF(场内:159890,场外: 021716)、软件龙头ETF(场内:159899,场外:018385) 【卫星互联网】 日本政府计划打造本土版"星链"系统,拟列支1500亿日元补助相关企业。 相关ETF: 卫星产业ETF(场内:159218) 【有色金属】 中国央行连续第14个月增持黄金。 相关ETF: 有色矿业ETF招商(场内:159690) 【煤炭】 多重因素催化:蒙煤短期通关下降预期;榆林部分核增产能退回;市场对反内卷政策加码存预期;行业 处于冬储补库阶段。 相 ...
1.7盘前速览 | 两市成交破2.8万亿,卫星持续冲高,关注有色矿业与半导体
Jin Rong Jie· 2026-01-07 02:01
人民银行:2026年将实施适度宽松的货币政策。将建立特定情景下向非银机构提供流动性的机制,发挥 好支持资本市场的货币政策工具作用。 相关ETF: 国债政金债ETF(场内:511580) 【卫星互联网】 国内首家商业火箭公司(科工火箭)即将易主,整体估值约112亿元。 【宏观】 中国宣布禁止所有两用物项对日本军事用途出口。涉及稀土、钨、钼、铟、锂、钛合金等多种关键金属 材料。 相关ETF: 有色矿业ETF招商(场内:159690) 【人工智能】 市场就英伟达下一代Rubin平台规格进行讨论,卖方调研称不存在降规问题。 卖方表示,根据产业链调研,25年底AIDC招投标显著提速,交付时间紧迫。 相关ETF: 卫星产业ETF(场内:159218) 【半导体】 英伟达BlueField-4重构AI存储层级,有望打开NAND增量需求空间。 希捷计划每季度对产品涨价10%。 相关ETF: 半导体设备ETF(场内:561980,场外:020464) 【有色金属】 相关ETF: 云计算ETF(场内:159890,场外:021716)、软件龙头ETF(场内:159899,场外:018385)、 TMT50ETF(场内:15990 ...
1.5盘前速览 | 卫星产业成功跨年,节后看科技内部轮动与业绩线
Jin Rong Jie· 2026-01-05 01:32
Satellite Internet - Blue Arrow Aerospace's IPO on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board has been accepted, aiming to raise 7.5 billion yuan, with a focus on reusable rockets [1] - Starlink announced it will provide free broadband service to the people of Venezuela for one month [3] Artificial Intelligence - Wall Street is seeing active IPOs and financing, with companies like Biran Technology experiencing a significant stock price increase, and Suiyuan Technology completing IPO guidance [4] - Google and Anthropic reported strong demand for TPU, while there are rumors of significant price increases for NVIDIA and AMD GPUs starting next month [4] Semiconductor - The Big Fund has increased its stake in SMIC H-shares, and TrendForce has revised upward its expectations for DRAM and NAND contract price increases in Q1 2026 [5] - TSMC has received U.S. permission to transport equipment to its Nanjing plant and plans to raise prices for advanced processes [6] Robotics - Reports suggest that Tesla's Optimus V3 mass production review has been completed, with seven Chinese companies as core suppliers, targeting a production capacity of 50,000 to 100,000 units by the end of the year [7] New Energy - Tianci Materials has released an annual forecast, confirming that Q4 performance is on track [9] Nuclear Fusion - The all-superconducting tokamak experiment has achieved significant physical breakthroughs, providing a basis for high-density operation [10] - The first nuclear fusion conference of the year will be held from January 16 to 17 in Hefei [11] Autonomous Driving - Tesla owners have achieved "full self-driving across the United States" for the first time [13] Digital Currency - State-owned banks will start paying interest on digital RMB real-name wallet balances at current account rates from January 1 [14] Market News - The New Year speech mentioned advancements in artificial intelligence, semiconductors, aerospace, and robotics across multiple sectors [15] - Companies are required to disclose annual performance forecasts by January 31 [16] - Market pricing clues for 2026 indicate sustained high growth, broad recovery, U.S. inflation, and Chinese domestic demand [17] Market Observation - On the last trading day before the holiday, the transaction volume reached 2.05 trillion yuan, with indices closing in the green but not reaching 4,000 points [18] - The satellite internet sector successfully crossed the year-end, with funds remaining in the market, and there is potential for healthy pullbacks to provide better entry opportunities [18]
12.25盘前速览 | 沪指六连阳,卫星与半导体共舞
Jin Rong Jie· 2025-12-25 02:13
【卫星互联网】 相关ETF: 半导体设备ETF(场内:561980,场外联接:020464) 蓝箭航天完成IPO辅导,估值200亿元 商业航天产业联盟科创基金首发规模10-20亿元,远期拟扩至100亿元 长十甲运载火箭完成网系回收方案首飞 相关ETF: 卫星产业ETF(场内:159218) 【半导体】 据报道,三星电子、SK海力士等已上调明年HBM3E价格,涨幅接近20% 英伟达已暂停对英特尔18A制程工艺的测试 卖方分析,半导体级空白掩膜版国产替代空间广阔 长电科技近期完成审厂,或开启国产封装材料导入 【有色】 锡:近期有协会倡议抵制非理性涨价,价格出现小幅回调 卖方建议关注美国财政部季度再融资方案对黄金的参考价值 据报道,枧下窝锂矿项目预计于春节前后复产 相关ETF: 矿业ETF(场内:159690) 【人工智能】 卖方分析,电源国内核心标的的批量/小批量应用或在2026年,届时市场空间有望迎来三倍扩容 网传交流信息显示,对谷歌2027年业务增长的指引区间较市场此前预期更乐观 相关ETF: 云计算ETF(场内:159890,场外联接:021716)、软件龙头ETF(场内:159899,场外联接: 0183 ...
12.24盘前速览 | 卫星巨震,伦敦铜价再创史高,结构性机会延续
Jin Rong Jie· 2025-12-24 01:32
【宏观动态】 近期观点认为人民币对美元汇率未来十年或将从7.0逐步升值至6.0左右 美国三季度经济增长4.3%,前官员认为美联储在降息问题上落后于形势 【卫星互联网】 长征十二号甲首飞,一级飞行正常,一子级回收失败 相关ETF: 卫星产业ETF(场内:159218) 【有色】 伦敦铜价突破每吨12000美元,再创历史新高 卖方提出对黄金、白银、铂金、锂等金属价格的乐观设想 相关ETF: 矿业ETF(场内:159690) 【半导体】 卖方强调洁净室是全球AI资本开支持续扩张的"必经工程环节" 美国宣布对中国半导体产品征收零关税直至2027年6月 相关ETF: 半导体设备ETF(场内:561980,场外联接:020464) 外媒报道字节跳动计划斥资230亿美元购买顶级芯片及建设AI基础设施 火山引擎将成为2026年春晚AI云合作伙伴 市场传闻字节跳动或大幅提升对华为AI芯片的采购框架额度 相关ETF: 云计算ETF(场内:159890,场外联接:021716)、半导体设备ETF(场内:561980,场外联 接:020464) 【新能源】 市场关注六氟磷酸锂长单谈判进展,价格预期中枢上移 头部厂商固态电池中试线招标 ...
12.17盘前速览 | 卫星产业持续闪耀,消费再获预期支撑
Jin Rong Jie· 2025-12-22 16:13
【宏观动态】 近期海南文昌大会、多型商业火箭首飞等催化剂密集 相关ETF: 卫星产业ETF(场内:159218) 【消费】 国家发改委强调大力提升居民消费意愿,深入实施提振消费专项行动 中央财办明确扩大内需是明年排在首位的重点任务 三部门发文鼓励运用数字人民币智能合约红包促消费 相关ETF: 消费ETF(场内:510150,场外联接:217017)、食品饮料ETF(场内:159843) 美国就业数据公布后,市场对美联储2026年降息幅度的预期为58个基点,1月降息概率升至31% 市场后续关注点:美联储新主席提名、美国财政发力前景、国内扩大内需的实际举措 【卫星互联网】 卖方表示重点发射项目状态已就绪,等待协调新时间 电科蓝天IPO通过,是宇航电源核心供应商 18日火山引擎大会将聚焦豆包大模型、端侧AI与Agent生态 传谷歌亚洲供应链走访紧密,明年TPU采购量预期400万颗 相关ETF: 云计算ETF(场内:159890,场外联接:021716)、软件龙头ETF(场内:159899,场外联接: 018385) 【自动驾驶】 鸿蒙智行、小鹏获批开启L3自动驾驶内测 【机器人】 卖方透露,圣诞节后将有样机汇报,3 ...
12.22盘前速览 | 卫星维持核心主线,消费板块活跃
Jin Rong Jie· 2025-12-22 08:32
Macroeconomic Dynamics - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, with a neutral forward guidance that aligns with market expectations [1] Satellite Internet - Trump has called for measures to ensure the United States maintains its "space superiority" - The U.S. Space Development Agency is procuring 72 missile warning satellites valued at $3.5 billion - SpaceX is in discussions with banks regarding an IPO - A commercial space development conference will be held on December 24 in Beijing, where a space technology innovation fund will be established - Related ETF: Satellite Industry ETF (on-market: 159218) [1] Robotics - UTree Technology's humanoid robot performed a complex "Webster" flip dance at Wang Leehom's concert in Chengdu, receiving praise from Elon Musk - Related ETF: Robotics Index ETF (on-market: 560770, off-market link: 020482) [1] Consumer Sector - Media continues to highlight the emotional economy and self-indulgent consumption, specifically mentioning the pet economy and trendy card games - Sales on the first day of duty-free closure in Hainan reached 118 million yuan, with a significant increase in New Year flight bookings - Three departments released the "Internet Platform Pricing Behavior Rules" - Related ETF: Consumer ETF (on-market: 510150, off-market link: 217017), Food and Beverage ETF (on-market: 159843) [1] Artificial Intelligence - OpenAI is planning a new funding round targeting $100 billion, involving capital from the Middle East - Ultraman stated that OpenAI will launch a significantly upgraded model in the first quarter of next year - China has made significant breakthroughs in optical computing chips, achieving the first all-optical computing chip that supports large-scale semantic generation models - The National Healthcare Security Administration has clarified that "AI-assisted diagnosis" will be included in the pricing project for pathological diagnosis - Experts believe that 90% of the potential of large models remains untapped - Related ETF: Cloud Computing ETF (on-market: 159890, off-market link: 021716), Software Leaders ETF (on-market: 159899, off-market link: 018385) [1] Market Observation - On December 19, trading volume reached 1.7259 trillion yuan, an increase of 70.4 billion yuan - Following the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, the market continued to rebound, with retail, light industry, and environmental protection sectors leading the gains, while the technology sector is poised for growth - The satellite internet sector maintains a core trend, with rotation among consumer, nuclear fusion, and autonomous driving themes - The market is expected to break upward after fluctuating around the 3900-point mark, driven by the technology sector [1]
主动量化周报:12月下旬:科技切周期趋势仍将持续-20251214
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-12-14 06:29
- The report discusses the **ETF Risk Appetite Index**, which has been declining since September 19, indicating a contraction in market risk appetite. This is evidenced by the outperformance of low-valuation stocks over high-valuation stocks and a gradual decline in trading volume. However, the **Active Capital Indicator** shows that speculative funds remain active, particularly in technology-related ETFs like cloud computing, military, and science innovation, while defensive ETFs like dividend and consumption are underperforming. This suggests a fragile market balance where risk appetite is declining, but active funds are narrowing their focus within the technology sector[1][11] - The report highlights the **High-Frequency Trading Regulation Impact**, which aims to level the playing field by increasing transaction delays and removing exclusive equipment. The regulation primarily targets microsecond-level ultra-high-frequency trading strategies, which are mostly proprietary or market-making strategies. These strategies have minimal impact on the overall market due to their small scale, typically under 100 million RMB per product. The report concludes that the regulation has limited influence on the profitability of quantitative strategies, as their excess returns are driven by asset pricing rather than trading speed. The report also notes that market volatility recovery could further enhance quantitative excess returns[2][12] - The report analyzes the **Micro-Cap Stock Trends**, noting that short-term fluctuations are influenced by hedging products, while medium-term trends are supported by incremental funds from quantitative products. Since December, the issuance of quantitative products has remained robust, though the proportion of "air index enhancement" (quantitative stock selection) has decreased by 12%, while "1000 index enhancement" and other index enhancements have increased. This shift has slightly reduced the allocation to micro-cap stocks. Additionally, as market risk appetite declines, funds are concentrating on high-growth sectors, strengthening mid-cap stocks like CSI 500 and CSI 1000. Despite short-term adjustments, the report remains optimistic about medium-term inflows into micro-cap stocks[3][13]
行业轮动ETF策略周报(20251201-20251205)-20251208
金融街证券· 2025-12-08 08:13
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Financial Street Securities Research Institute constructed a strategic portfolio of industry and theme ETFs based on two strategy reports: "Strategy Portfolio Report under Industry Rotation: Quantitative Analysis from the Perspective of Industry Style Continuity and Switching" (20241007) and "Research on the Overview and Allocation Methods of the Stock - type ETF Market: Taking the ETF Portfolio Based on the Industry Rotation Strategy as an Example" (20241013) [2] - From 20251201 - 20251205, the cumulative net return of the strategy was about 0.55%, and the excess return relative to the CSI 300 ETF was about - 0.81%. From October 14, 2024, to the present, the out - of - sample cumulative return of the strategy was about 24.26%, and the cumulative excess return relative to the CSI 300 ETF was about 3.20% [3] - In the week of 20251208, the model recommended the allocation of sectors such as aviation equipment, software development, gaming, communication equipment, and communication services. In the coming week, the strategy would newly hold products such as Aerospace ETF, Computer ETF, Gaming ETF, Cloud Computing ETF, and Central Enterprise Science and Technology Innovation ETF [12] 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Strategy Construction - The strategy was constructed based on two reports: "Strategy Portfolio Report under Industry Rotation: Quantitative Analysis from the Perspective of Industry Style Continuity and Switching" (20241007) and "Research on the Overview and Allocation Methods of the Stock - type ETF Market: Taking the ETF Portfolio Based on the Industry Rotation Strategy as an Example" (20241013) [2] 3.2 Performance Tracking - During 20251201 - 20251205, the strategy's cumulative net return was about 0.55%, and the excess return relative to the CSI 300 ETF was about - 0.81%. From October 14, 2024, to the present, the strategy's out - of - sample cumulative return was about 24.26%, and the cumulative excess return relative to the CSI 300 ETF was about 3.20% [3] 3.3 Portfolio Adjustment - In the week of 20251208, products like Aerospace ETF (159227), Computer ETF Southern (159586), Gaming ETF (159869), Cloud Computing ETF (516510), Central Enterprise Science and Technology Innovation ETF (159335) etc. were recommended to be newly held, while products such as Real Estate ETF (159768), Grain ETF (159698), Petrochemical ETF (159731) etc. were to be removed from the portfolio [3][12] 3.4 Timing Signals - The timing signals were price - volume indicators, where 1 indicated a bullish signal, 0 indicated a neutral signal, and - 1 indicated a bearish signal. For example, the weekly and daily timing signals for Aerospace ETF (159227) were 0 and 1 respectively [3]
云计算ETF(159890)午后飙涨4%、日K冲击三连阳!机构:AI应用生态全面形成,算力需求持续强劲
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-26 05:43
Core Viewpoint - The cloud computing ETF (159890) has shown significant growth, driven by strong performance in key component stocks, reflecting a robust demand for AI-related technologies and services [1][5]. Group 1: ETF Performance - The cloud computing ETF (159890) increased by 4.02%, with a peak price of 1.661 and a closing price of 1.655 on November 26 [2]. - Major component stocks such as Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng surged by 15.49% and 11.57%, respectively, while other stocks like Zhongke Shuguang and Inspur Information also saw gains exceeding 4% [1][2]. Group 2: AI Industry Developments - The AI application ecosystem is evolving, with major players like Alibaba and Ant Group launching new AI products, indicating a competitive landscape for AI super entry points [3]. - Nvidia reported a quarterly revenue of $57.006 billion, a 62% year-over-year increase, reinforcing market confidence in sustained AI demand [4]. - Google's introduction of the Gemini 3 AI model is positioned as a significant advancement in AI technology, further driving interest in AI capabilities [4]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The cloud computing ETF encompasses leading companies in both AI infrastructure and applications, suggesting a comprehensive investment opportunity in the AI era [5]. - Key component stocks include Zhongji Xuchuang (16.41% weight) and Xinyi Sheng (11.20% weight), highlighting the ETF's focus on critical sectors within the AI supply chain [6].