Core Insights - Bosnia and Herzegovina's inflation rate has reached double the EU average, with a reported rate of 4.2% in September compared to the EU's 2.2% [1] - Significant price increases were noted in the hospitality sector (8.0%) and food and non-alcoholic beverages (7.8%), while clothing and footwear (-7.5%) and transportation (-0.8%) saw price declines [1] - The Eurozone's inflation rate rose from 2% in August to 2.2% in September, marking a five-month high, driven by narrowing energy price declines and rising service prices [1] Economic Analysis - Economists attribute Bosnia's high inflation primarily to domestic policies, including raising the minimum wage without reducing taxes, increasing electricity and public service prices, and a lack of measures to curb inflation and unreasonable price hikes [1] - The heavy reliance on imports due to insufficient support for local production exacerbates the inflation issue in Bosnia [1] - In contrast, the EU maintains controllable inflation through a superior business environment, adequate market competition, and stable fiscal policies [1]

Economic Growth - Kyrgyzstan's GDP for the first eight months of the year reached 1.0421 trillion som (approximately 11.9 billion USD), with a year-on-year growth of 11.0%, significantly higher than last year's 8.3% [1] - The economic growth is primarily driven by industrial, construction, and service sectors, with industrial production growth at 13.7% [1] Industrial Performance - The total industrial output in Kyrgyzstan increased to 437.1 billion som, with a year-on-year growth of 11.5%, compared to 0.7% last year [2] - Key sub-sectors such as manufacturing, food and beverage, tobacco, chemicals, rubber and plastics, and construction materials experienced double-digit growth, with the pharmaceutical industry growing 2.2 times and food and beverage and tobacco products increasing by 44.4% [2] - The industrial sector accounted for 17.9% of GDP, contributing 1.93 percentage points to GDP growth [2] Service Sector Growth - The service sector remains dominant in Kyrgyzstan's economy, with an output of 808.6 billion som and a year-on-year growth of 9.9%, making up 50.7% of GDP [3] - Growth in the service sector is attributed to rising living standards and consumer spending, with consumer loans increasing by 45.3% and average household income rising by 20.4% [3] - Significant growth was noted in wholesale and retail (17.1%) and the restaurant industry (25.9%) [3] Construction Sector Dynamics - The construction sector's output surged by 34.8%, contributing 7.5% to GDP [3] - Fixed capital investments reached 166.1 billion som, growing by 20.1%, primarily directed towards housing, resource development, and urban infrastructure projects [3] Long-term Economic Outlook - Kyrgyzstan has maintained high economic growth rates and is expected to achieve an 8% growth rate in 2025, supported by proactive measures from the government and the national bank to prevent economic overheating [5] - Major infrastructure projects like the Kambar-Ata 1 hydropower station and the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway are in active implementation, expected to create thousands of new jobs and stimulate regional development [4][5]

Group 1: Local Life and E-commerce - The competition in local life services is expected to continue in Q4 2025, with major platforms like Meituan, JD, and Alibaba intensifying their investments in delivery services and instant retail [2][3] - In Q2 2025, Meituan, JD, and Alibaba reported significant losses in local life services, but these losses are anticipated to peak in Q3 due to increased summer demand and promotional activities [2][3] - The e-commerce sector is experiencing reduced competitive pressure, with online retail sales reaching 1.02 trillion yuan in August 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.1% [4] Group 2: Tourism and Hospitality - The tourism sector is witnessing a recovery, with a 7% year-on-year increase in cross-regional travel during the National Day holiday, indicating a shift in traveler preferences towards experiential travel [7][8] - Online Travel Agencies (OTAs) are benefiting from the overall growth in tourism, with major players maintaining stable performance despite increased competition from new entrants [7] - The hotel industry is expected to reach a bottoming out phase, with leading companies like Jinjiang and Huazhu showing resilience and potential for profit recovery in Q4 2025 [10][11] Group 3: Retail and Consumer Goods - The offline retail sector is undergoing significant transformations, with supermarkets like Yonghui Supermarket expected to complete major store renovations, leading to improved profitability [9] - The retail landscape is shifting towards quality retail, with community stores like convenience stores maintaining high growth rates, while traditional department stores face slower growth [9] - The mother and baby retail sector is benefiting from supportive government policies and adjustments in store formats, leading to a notable recovery in same-store sales [14] Group 4: Cross-border E-commerce - Cross-border e-commerce is experiencing profit differentiation due to external factors like tariffs, with platform-based companies showing stable performance while product-based companies seek innovative advantages [12][13] - The sales peak for cross-border e-commerce is anticipated in the second half of 2025, driven by promotional events like Amazon's Prime Day, which saw a 30.3% increase in online spending [12][13] Group 5: Recommendations - Key investment targets include Yonghui Supermarket, Alibaba, Meituan, and various hotel chains such as Jinjiang and Huazhu, reflecting a diversified approach across sectors [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Insights - The tourism sector is expected to experience high growth in 2025, with inbound travel demand surging. In H1 2025, tourism trips increased by 20.6% year-on-year, and travel spending grew by 15.2%. The trend of younger and more localized tourism continues, with 45% of travel orders during the "May Day" holiday coming from the post-95 generation [2] - Online Travel Agencies (OTAs) are benefiting from the overall growth in the tourism market, maintaining a stable market structure. Major OTAs like Tongcheng and Ctrip reported revenue growth of 10.0% and 16.2% respectively in Q2 2025, exceeding market expectations [2] - The offline retail sector is undergoing transformation, with supermarkets expected to accelerate profit release due to store renovations and supply chain improvements. The retail landscape is improving, with supermarkets showing better performance compared to department stores [4][5] - The restaurant sector is recovering faster than hotels, with a focus on wedding and niche markets. However, the overall restaurant market is under pressure, with a 3.8% year-on-year increase in retail sales from January to July 2025 [7] - The e-commerce sector is rebounding, with online retail sales reaching 3.12 trillion yuan in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6.29%. Instant retail is emerging as a new growth driver, with the market expected to reach 780 billion yuan by 2024 [10][11] Summary by Sections Tourism - Inbound tourism demand is accelerating, with a 15.8% increase in entry and exit trips in H1 2025, and a 30.2% increase in foreign visitors [2] - Major OTAs are performing well, with Tongcheng's revenue at 4.669 billion yuan (up 10.0%) and Ctrip's revenue at 14.843 billion yuan (up 16.2%) in Q2 2025 [2] Retail - The retail sector is seeing varied growth across formats, with supermarkets growing by 5.2% and convenience stores by 7.0% in the first seven months of 2025 [4] - Supermarket renovations are expected to enhance customer attraction and profitability [4] Restaurants and Hotels - The restaurant sector is under pressure, with a 3.8% increase in retail sales in the first half of 2025, while hotel RevPAR is facing challenges [7] - Major hotel chains are experiencing a decline in RevPAR, with some companies showing resilience through operational efficiency [7] E-commerce - E-commerce is recovering, with Q2 2025 online retail sales reaching 3.12 trillion yuan, a 6.29% year-on-year increase [10] - Instant retail is projected to grow significantly, with the market expected to reach 780 billion yuan by 2024 [10][11] Cross-border E-commerce - Platform-based companies are showing stable performance, with revenue growth for companies like Xiaoshangcheng and Jiaodian Technology at 14% and 16% respectively in H1 2025 [12] - Product-based companies are experiencing revenue resilience but face profit uncertainties due to external factors [12] Baby and Maternity Retail - The industry is being catalyzed by supportive policies, with steady recovery in same-store sales [16] - Companies like Haiziwang and Aiyingshi are optimizing store structures and launching new brands to enhance profitability [16]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.331 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.67% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 71.9986 million yuan, with a non-recurring net profit of 67.163 million yuan [1] Business Overview - The company's main business segments include catering services, hotel accommodation, and food operations [1] - As of the end of the reporting period, the company operated 133 directly-owned stores across various regions including Anhui, Jiangsu, Beijing, Shanghai, and Hangzhou [1] - The breakdown of stores includes 58 catering outlets, 11 hotels under the Fumao brand, and 64 new brand outlets [1] Product Development - The company leveraged its culinary expertise to create new product lines such as "one dumpling one dish" and "one shao mai one dish" [1] - During the Dragon Boat Festival, the sales of the "famous chef dumplings" exceeded 42 million yuan [1] - The chain operation of fresh meat buns also showed steady growth during the reporting period [1] Shareholder Returns - The company is committed to enhancing shareholder returns through improved business competitiveness, cash dividends, share buybacks, and effective communication with the capital market [1] - Since its listing in 2020, the company has conducted cash dividends five times [1]

Group 1 - The unemployment rate for recent college graduates aged 22 to 27 has reached its highest level in nearly a decade, with a rate of 5.8% projected for Q1 2025, significantly above the overall U.S. unemployment rate [1][2] - The unemployment rate for recent graduates and job-seeking college students was 6.6% in the past year, an increase from 6% the previous year, marking the highest level in about ten years, excluding the pandemic period [2] - The job market for college graduates is particularly affected in sectors like information technology and finance, where advancements in AI are rapidly changing hiring dynamics [2][3] Group 2 - Companies like Shopify and Duolingo are incorporating AI into their hiring and layoff decisions, indicating a shift in recruitment strategies where roles must prove they cannot be automated [2] - Meta's CEO revealed that the company is leveraging AI engineers for basic coding tasks, predicting that most of their code will be written by AI within the next 12 to 18 months [3] - Bill Gates noted that while AI may replace simpler jobs, it will serve as an auxiliary tool in more creative fields, potentially leading to increased productivity and new job opportunities [3] Group 3 - Despite concerns about AI's impact on employment, some economists argue that attributing the current job market challenges solely to AI is premature, as many companies are still in the early stages of adopting this technology [4][5] - LinkedIn's analysis found no significant evidence that AI is disproportionately affecting hiring across different job categories, suggesting that other factors may be at play [5] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate policies have also significantly influenced hiring in the tech sector, with low rates during the pandemic leading to a hiring surge that has since slowed due to rising borrowing costs [5]